The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[x129]

280 carry with a 105 is stretching the limits of what is possible. 280 total distance is more doable. But even like 265 avg carry is enough to survive on the PGA tour. You get 10-20 yards of roll and your good to go.  If you look at the PGA stats there are a couple guys down around 105 averages (David Toms made 1.6 million with the slowest speed on tour) with a 262 carry (probably some combo of driver and fairway woods) that have done ok.

He posted some numbers a while back: http://thedanplan.com/blog/?p=1240 . He claims a 100-105 mph swing speed (along with a 1.5 smash factor) and 275 yard drives and with 200 yard 4 irons.  That is plenty of distance to get his handicap down but you would need a killer short game and long iron accuracy to survive on tour with it.  And I am always suspect in comparing pro swing speeds to amateurs. I have a feeling a lot of the pros have another 5-10mph that they don't use (44" driver instead of 46, swinging more controlled, heavier versus lighter shaft) while a guy like Dan(and me when I go to dicks) is swinging away with the lightest, longest driver as hard as they can.

Originally Posted by Beachcomber

I'd be interested in seeing his numbers too.  I just had a lesson with Dana last week and he mentioned there is a guy on tour who has a 104mph swing, but his numbers are all optimized and he is regularly carrying the driver 280 (I can't remember his name - maybe Mvmac knows who Dana was talking about??).  Anyway, 280 carry is plenty of length off the tee (carry) to be effective on tour.  The problem though as you stated... Is clubhead speed for the majority of golfers.  Most guys don't have optimal numbers.  So they have to make up for those inefficiencies by swinging the club faster to get similar launch/carry/spin numbers.

[mchepp]

I'd be interested in seeing his numbers too.  I just had a lesson with Dana last week and he mentioned there is a guy on tour who has a 104mph swing, but his numbers are all optimized and he is regularly carrying the driver 280 (I can't remember his name - maybe Mvmac knows who Dana was talking about??).  Anyway, 280 carry is plenty of length off the tee (carry) to be effective on tour.  The problem though as you stated... Is clubhead speed for the majority of golfers.  Most guys don't have optimal numbers.  So they have to make up for those inefficiencies by swinging the club faster to get similar launch/carry/spin numbers.

Tim Clark I think is in that area for SS. Zack Johnson is close I think.

[Harmonious]

105 swing speed with 1.5 smash factor gets you about 250 carry.

[mchepp]

105 swing speed with 1.5 smash factor gets you about 250 carry.

Does AoA make a difference on that?

[Beachcomber]

Originally Posted by mchepp

Does AoA make a difference on that?

Yes - you need to have a positive AoA to maximize carry.

Personally, I thought 280 sounded like a long carry number for a guy with a 105ish ss... But maybe he had some illegal hot faced driver (joke)?

[meta87]

His most recent blog comment mentions that he is just realizing that he flips at impact. Really? Seems like something he should already be aware of with all his coaching and practice.

Someone needs to tell him about evolvr

I wish he would upload a nice slow mo dtl and caddy view swing video every few weeks. I'd be interested in watching his swing improvements over time.

[SloverUT]

Originally Posted by meta87

His most recent blog comment mentions that he is just realizing that he flips at impact. Really? Seems like something he should already be aware of with all his coaching and practice.

Someone needs to tell him about evolvr

I wish he would upload a nice slow mo dtl and caddy view swing video every few weeks. I'd be interested in watching his swing improvements over time.

Yes, I agree.  I would have thought a good instructor would have spotted his flipping right from the get go.  If it is true it doesn't bode well for his current instructor or he just now developed the problem.

[SweDeuS]

Originally Posted by Williamevanl

The Birdie

I realized in another thread that there was a better way to explain why Dan has almost no chance of ever reaching scratch let alone professional golf. Here's the problem with golf, you don't realize how far you are at any time and here's why: Consider a graph that plots the difficulty of each score for a given ability (amount of skill).

Dan's handicap is roughly a 6 but consider what that means in terms of skill. The problem as you reach scratch is that you can get to a pretty low handicap without possessing the skill necessary to offset you mistakes by making birdies. A good portion of your attempts result in par as par is a huge catch all department that can be reached via several routes. Birdie on the other hand is more indicative of skill as it shows an un-broken chain of highly skilled ability.

Imagine someone who consistently shoots scratch, they are just as likely to make a birdie as they are a bogey, or two birdies as they are a double. Now look at Dan's numbers. On any given hole he has a 48% chance of making par, 39% chance of making bogie, 8% chance of making double and a measly 4% chance of making a birdie. (less than one a round) A 6 handicap sounds nice but it is masked by that catch-all par monster. It hides that fact that Dan is nowhere near scratch. Currently on any given hole he has a 47% chance of bogie or worse and only a 4% chance of a birdie. There is a huge difference between a bogie and a birdie. There isn't going to be a rapid conversion of bogies to birdies and the reason is that huge amount of skill required to span that bogey to birdie stretch.

I see what you mean, but you don't really prove your point. In the end all you really say is that Dan is not a scratch player.

Well you're right. He's not a scratch player. Or maybe I should say, he's not a scratch player yet. Who knows?

The thing is he's currently making 4% birdies. Do you think he made that many when he first started? The last round he played he made 3 birdies. I know one round doesn't prove you wrong, but it shows he's capable of making them.

Another thing is that Dan doesn't tell us from which HCP span the statistics are from. If it relates back to when he startet playing, he's probably making more than 4% of birdies now a days.

[x129]

Given the birdie rate has been dropping (it was 6% in august) I am guessing it is the last 20 rounds or so. Again looking at Dan's stats it is the bogies and others that are killing him, not lack of birdies. Change 3 of those bogies or worse into pars and pick up one birdie and he is pretty much a 0 handicap player. Now doing that isn't very easy.

Originally Posted by SweDeuS

I see what you mean, but you don't really prove your point. In the end all you really say is that Dan is not a scratch player.

Well you're right. He's not a scratch player. Or maybe I should say, he's not a scratch player yet. Who knows?

The thing is he's currently making 4% birdies. Do you think he made that many when he first started? The last round he played he made 3 birdies. I know one round doesn't prove you wrong, but it shows he's capable of making them.

Another thing is that Dan doesn't tell us from which HCP span the statistics are from. If it relates back to when he startet playing, he's probably making more than 4% of birdies now a days.

[David in FL]

Given the birdie rate has been dropping (it was 6% in august) I am guessing it is the last 20 rounds or so. Again looking at Dan's stats it is the bogies and others that are killing him, not lack of birdies. Change 3 of those bogies or worse into pars and pick up one birdie and he is pretty much a 0 handicap player. Now doing that isn't very easy.

All he's gotta do is apply himself, right? ;-)

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by x129

Given the birdie rate has been dropping (it was 6% in august) I am guessing it is the last 20 rounds or so. Again looking at Dan's stats it is the bogies and others that are killing him, not lack of birdies. Change 3 of those bogies or worse into pars and pick up one birdie and he is pretty much a 0 handicap player. Now doing that isn't very easy.

Right, well I understand that ultimately if you bogeying half of the course than it's not your lack of birdies that's killing you. I'm just saying his inability to make birdies is indicative of his skill level. (And I know he just had the round of his life).

His scores have dropped drastically in the last few rounds (is he doing winter rules?) ever since he said he was no longer keeping his handicap because it shuts down this time of year. It's seems like a big leap and it looks like he'll have a chance of hitting my original prediction of being a 4 handicap at 5000 hours. (Which sounds nice, but I've got him at a 2 at the end of this thing)

Some people might thing, "hey a two is pretty good". Sit back and consider the time and money that has gone into this. With the lost earnings and the savings spent it's over a half a million dollars and 6-7 years of his life.

[x129]

Exactly. In another 2-4k hours of applying himself he will be scratch.  Piece of cake to spend the next 2 years living on the course right?

Originally Posted by David in FL

All he's gotta do is apply himself, right?

Sure lack of birdies indicate lack of skill. So does lack of pars, too many bogies, and so on. At the basic level writing a 77 on the score card tells you your skill level. I am sure with the exact stats (i.e. average first putt from a GIR, average length of approach shot,...) you could pick apart where he is failing. And yes the amount of time and money he has spent is crazy.  I would be shocked if he was a 2. He has only been doing full swings ~18 months (yes a lot of hours) so I expect another big jump next year before the crawl where it is struggle to drop a stroke a year. I have him at a +1. You know the really good golfer but a guy that isn't close to a minitour pro let along a pga tour one.  Ok I might actually  have him dropping out. I am a bit shocked that he didn't develop some physical issues this year with the rapid increase in golfing volume.

Originally Posted by Williamevanl

Right, well I understand that ultimately if you bogeying half of the course than it's not your lack of birdies that's killing you. I'm just saying his inability to make birdies is indicative of his skill level. (And I know he just had the round of his life).

His scores have dropped drastically in the last few rounds (is he doing winter rules?) ever since he said he was no longer keeping his handicap because it shuts down this time of year. It's seems like a big leap and it looks like he'll have a chance of hitting my original prediction of being a 4 handicap at 5000 hours. (Which sounds nice, but I've got him at a 2 at the end of this thing)

Some people might thing, "hey a two is pretty good". Sit back and consider the time and money that has gone into this. With the lost earnings and the savings spent it's over a half a million dollars and 6-7 years of his life.

[14ledo81]

I think what william meant is that the handicap alone (score if you will) does not tell the whole story. What if he was averaging 3-4 birdies per round, but had enough doubles or triples to offset. I believe that type of player would be showing more potential.

[x129]

I must admit I am really curious to learn what his swing changes have been. I sort of get the feeling the last year was a bit of a wasted year as it sounds like he was more or less his own swing coach for most of it. He posted some track man numbers and I know they are off just a 5 swings but I find them interesting

1) his 5+6 iron go the same distance. As do his 3+4 hybrid. And his PW is about the same as his 9. And if you look at the numbers, on the best hits the 4 hybrid is longer

2) He is really hitting down hard with his 3 wood and hybrid. And it is costing him 10+ yards and if you look at the chart and lot of accuracy if you compare it to the more sweeping swings

3) He struggles to hit down on the irons. It looks he has a tendency to get a bit flat.

Again maybe these are just sample size issues. All that being said, I would kill to have a trackman to generate data like this on a regular basis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 14ledo81

I think what william meant is that the handicap alone (score if you will) does not tell the whole story. What if he was averaging 3-4 birdies per round, but had enough doubles or triples to offset. I believe that type of player would be showing more potential.

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by x129

I almost missed those. I agree those numbers are really interesting. I'm surprised after all this time that he has such strange gaps, several clubs that go the same distance and what looks like a pretty wide dispersion even with his SW.

Well this is where you end up, you turn to your coach and ask things like "Well what do I need to improve on?" and the answer is Everything, by a lot! That collection of data shows just why he is hitting the wall he is. With a 6 iron that carries a yard short of his 5 iron (168 vs 169) and 20 yard gap to his next 2 clubs (hybrids) that also go the same distance what is he doing on mid length par 3s? Is everything from 170-190 some kind cut off hybrid shot?

This has been the point all along, smoke and mirrors will only get you so far. In some ways the Dan Plan will be how low of a handicap you can you get to with very little ability and a ridiculous amount of practice. I'm already surprised that Dan can post the scores that he does given all the inconsistencies in his game. It's going to be a painful road ahead though.

[newtogolf]

The minimal yardage distance between is 5i or 6i would indicate one was damaged and bent at the wrong loft or he has a pretty major swing flaw with longer irons.  I'd be surprised if it's a swing flaw since he's had a golf instructor working with him from day one who should have been able to correct it by now.

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by newtogolf

The minimal yardage distance between is 5i or 6i would indicate one was damaged and bent at the wrong loft or he has a pretty major swing flaw with longer irons.  I'd be surprised if it's a swing flaw since he's had a golf instructor working with him from day one who should have been able to correct it by now.

Unlikely it's the equipment. His 9 iron also averaged 2 yards farther than his PW and his 3 hybrid 1 yard farther than his 4 hybrid. I think he only has the ability to hit the 6 iron semi-properly and that 5 iron is likely too long for him. I'm sure he found early on that a regular 3 and 4 iron were way too difficult which is why he switched to hybrids. (but the problem with the 5 iron remains).

[golf55]

VERY INTERESTING! I wish I found this earlier!

Sorry I didn't read all 28pages

question

1. who pays for all his stuff? quit his job so this must cost a lot of money.