Tiger Woods' chances to win at Merion??

[Beachcomber]

I'm a pretty big Tiger Woods fan... And ecstatic to see him back to his dominating ways on tour here in 2013.  The guys truly on fire with his play.  And the work that he has put into this latest swing overhaul has really impressed me... In particular with the way he was able to move the ball both left to right and now right to left (which he hasn't been able to do until just recently) at TPC.  I'm not the only one who was impressed though... Ratings for the Sunday round at TPC when Tiger battled Sergio was the highest in quite sometime according to CBS :

Past decade
* 2005 third round aired on Sunday; final round aired on Monday. Second round action on Saturday drew a 3.0 rating.

So after seeing Tiger win his 78th PGA tour victory at TPC in dramatic fashion (I still can't believe Sergio imploded on 17 and 18 like that), I really thought that Merion would be a slam dunk for him to win his 15th major championship... Closing in on Jack's coveted mark of 18 majors.

But.

Then I just read that Tiger has never played Merion... So what?  It's Tiger Woods, right?  He can win any where in the world with the way he is striking the ball, right?  Hmmmm.  Well, that got me thinking and thus why I was curious what others have to say on this subject.

First, Merion is a Par 70 (34/36) and is sub 7,000 yards measuring in at 6,996 yards... In fact according to the USGA, it will be the first US Open course since 2004 to play sub 7,000 yards.  Does this neutralize Tiger at all?  It definitely will force players to be more strategic off the tee.  There is no need for players to be bombing driver when many of the par 4's will be trimmed down to lengths guys like myself play on a regular basis.

Secondly, I was curious and started to look closer at Tigers historical win records... He has three US Opens, but two of the three were played on courses which Tiger has played so many times (Torrey and Pebble)... His 2008 US Open victory came at Torrey Pines, where the man has 8 career victories!  Insane to even think about.

In fact, according to an article by ESPN , after Tigers win at Bay Hill, they reported that out of Tigers 77 tournament victories (he now has 78), they have come from 25 tournaments.

So what do you guys think?  Is Tiger going to win his 15th major at Merion next month or not?  According to the Golf odds makers, Tiger is 7-2 favorite to win at Merion.  That is pretty insane odds... $7 for every $2 wager.  Any takers?

http://www.mcall.com/sports/mc-tiger-woods-usopen-merion-20130520,0,331223.story

Tiger Woods said that the next time he plays Merion Golf Club will be the first.

Merion, which will host the U.S. Open for the first time since 1981, will be new for plenty of pros, Woods among them. The world's No. 1 player, who has won three U.S. Open titles, said Monday that he intends to visit prior to tournament week.

Perhaps even soon. Woods was Congressional Golf Club near Washington, D.C. , for AT&T; National media day.

"I will play it before tournament week," Woods said. "I'll go take a look at it. Generally that's when I do a lot of my scouting on the greens and do all my charting, take care of that, so I have very little to do as far as charting the greens during the tournament week."

Woods said he watched some of the 2005 U.S. Amateur on television, noting that the rough was "some kind of thick" and the greens were difficult. He said weather primarily will dictate conditions.

"The ultimate is what are they going to do on the greens," Woods said. "If they get a nice summer or a nice couple weeks where there's very little rain and then get them baked out, get them firm, you don't obviously have to put [the pins] in corners, because it's going to be playing pretty difficult."

During his pre-tournament visit, Woods said he will do his normal course charting, which will require attentiveness because he's not familiar with Merion.

"I don't know if it's hilly or it's flat," Woods said. "Is it predominantly right to left, left to right? Is it going to … be the driver or is it going to be the 3-wood that week or 5-wood? I don't know. These are all things that I'll get an understanding for when I first go play it."

To end the media session, Woods was asked whether he has considered contacting Sergio Garcia to smooth over their disagreement at The Players Championship .

"No," he said.

[BostonBrew]

I think he's a lock. I have a feeling the shorter length will keep the driver in the bag for Tiger, and I don't know the official stats on this, but I feel like he hits more fairways with the fairway woods and 2i. Tiger hitting fairways is going to result in him playing really well, especially with his current ball striking.

[Zwick]

I don't know if the length is an advantage for Woods. Most of the par 4 are so short that almost no player has to hit driver and some of the other par 4 are so long, that everyone has to hit driver (18th). And the par 5 will probably not be reachable, so that takes away an advantage for Woods. I think it will be decided on the very long/hard par 3 holes, and Woods is 3rd in par 3 scoring this year.

He is going to be the heavy favorite, but far from a slam dunk to win.

[tomvk77]

Tiger in this form can win all tournaments. This being a new course to him, is so for allot off players. but i'm looking forward to the tournament.

[Zeph]

He's the best player out there right now, but needs a four good rounds to win. Merion being unfamiliar is one thing that goes against him, but I'm sure he's putting in enough practice to be able to win there.

[Lefty-Golfer]

unless the greens bake Tiger sets new scoring record...or someone else does and Tiger doesn't win. A semi soft course will take -15 to win... i think.

[Ernest Jones]

He's never played Merion but by the time he tees it up in round 1 he will have some practice rounds under his belt and his caddy will have scouted the crap out of it. Not the same as when you or I play a course for the first time and hit a perfect drive into the swamp we didn't know was there. :-(

[David in FL]

A lock, to win a major?  Heck no.  I'll take all the "Tiger against the field" bets I can get.

Having said that, he's the heavy favorite and will do well.  I'd be very surprised (albeit happy ) if he's not in one of the final 3 groups come Sunday.

[atb5079]

Originally Posted by Lefty-Golfer

unless the greens bake Tiger sets new scoring record...or someone else does and Tiger doesn't win. A semi soft course will take -15 to win... i think.

Ha. 15 under? Nobody is going -15. Merion is gonna be a very difficult task.

[Chilli Dipper]

I like Tiger's chances at the British Open more than the US Open. Muirfield is a more likely venue for his 15th major than Merion.

[ghalfaire]

I believe Tiger has a good chance to win, but not a lock by any means.

[Beachcomber]

Originally Posted by Ernest Jones

He's never played Merion but by the time he tees it up in round 1 he will have some practice rounds under his belt and his caddy will have scouted the crap out of it.

Not the same as when you or I play a course for the first time and hit a perfect drive into the swamp we didn't know was there.

Are there swamps North of the border!?

[RPMPIRE]

I'm a huge Tiger fan as well, but the fact that Tiger hasn't played a competitive round at Merion is what lets me turn towards the field winning than Tiger, but only by a small margin. Hopefully, I'm wrong...

[tstrike34]

Y'all know that the USGA has to burnish its credentials as the toughest golf test on the planet .

Merion is going to be stern test in all facets of the golf game. Methinks the USGA is going to trick up that course.

I'd say -8 to win and I have Tiger coming in 3rd (I am a bonafide Tiger fan).

[Ernest Jones]

Originally Posted by Beachcomber

Are there swamps North of the border!?

Mighta been a marsh.

Stood on the tee, 303 yrds but with a dogleg right. I figure I'll just poke a 5 iron out there and see what I'm left with when I get around the bend. Smart play right? Well I lace it right along the right edge of the trees and it even fades ever so slightly, right where I wanted it to put it, into the god damn marsh I didn't know was there!

[Ernest Jones]

Originally Posted by Beachcomber

Are there swamps North of the border!?

This reminds me of my last round last year. Hit a tee shot into a lateral water hazard, it was frozen and the ball just bounced and skittered along till it bounced off the far bank and back to the center of the hazard. I was SO tempted to walk out there and hit it it off the ice but even I'm not that stupid!

[Fourputt]

Tiger is the odds on favorite, but nobody's a lock.  As far as lack of experience at Merion, who else in contention has any?  I'd say it's an even field in that respect.

[Lefty-Golfer]

Originally Posted by atb5079

Ha. 15 under? Nobody is going -15. Merion is gonna be a very difficult task.

depends on the rain, soften the course with a couple of T-storms and you will see -15 maybe lower. if it is hard and fast you will see -6 to -8 for the winner...maybe lower. There are 6 or so holes that they are going to be hitting iron/wedge in and that is the entire field not a few guys, on another couple that are going to be fairway wood / wedge...i know the fairways will be be very tight and fast that will help - if it stays hard. You get one or two nasty T-storms or a couple of days of rain in the area and the course is going to take a beating.

Bottom line this is going to be a different US Open. it is just my opinion of course you can disagree...that is why we have betting!!! of course mine is an educated opinion from having been there and spoken with several local pro's who know the place very well - for what that is worth.