Donald Trump for president?

[Braivo]

22 hours ago, Dave2512 said:

Trump or no Trump there has always been morons like sucker punch guy nobody should be surprised assholes like that are in the world. He's the flipside of the assholes there to make a scene. That it happened at a Trump rally doesn't matter much and nobody is ignoring anything it's a 24 hour story.

I doubt it's a Trump quality as much as he knows how to seize the moment. Abhorrent as his comments are it's stuff like that allowing him to hog all the headlines. That seems to be the frustration of Cruz, Kasich and Rubio, their policy talk is overshadowed by Trump's reality TV campaign dominance. In a modern social climate that makes the likes of The Kardashian's mega stars nobody should be surprised the LCD is eating out of Trump's hand.

This is exactly what is so difficult for people to understand. He is trolling the media every single day. He says something outrageous, they talk about him for days while the other candidates get ignored. It doesn't matter if it's negative or positive, he gets on the news every day. The more they attack him the stronger he gets. They fall for it every time. 

29 minutes ago, nevets88 said:

The train keeps rolling. The only loss was to a popular sitting governor in his home state with zero chance to win the nomination. Things look pretty good for Trump right now. We will see if the GOPe continues to push for a brokered convention or accepts the inevitable Trump nom. 

Also, Rubio got stomped right out of the race. Lulz. 

[Gunther]

Apologies for the mis-post above.  Still no way to delete quotes made in error through Android.

Trump not doing the Fox debate next week.  I salute him, there have been enough. 

I've withdrawn my support for Cruz.  I always thought he was a principled conservative but his political opportunism through this campaign has me questioning that.  Last straw was him shifting blame onto Trump for the organized demonstrations at his rallies.  I expect it from the left but Cruz knows Trump's rhetoric has nothing to do with those protests.  Same would happen to him if he was the front-runner and held a rally in Chicago.

Heard a comment earlier today that really crystallized Trump's continued success and it resonated with me:  "He has all the right enemies."  Those fighting so hard to take him down are those who have let this country degenerate into the near irrelevant state it's become.  Really, that's it in a nutshell for me.

[jamo]

32 minutes ago, Gunther said:

I expect it from the left but Cruz knows Trump's rhetoric has nothing to do with those protests.  Same would happen to him if he was the front-runner and held a rally in Chicago.

What makes you say that?

[Braivo]

2 hours ago, Gunther said:

Heard a comment earlier today that really crystallized Trump's continued success and it resonated with me:  "He has all the right enemies."  Those fighting so hard to take him down are those who have let this country degenerate into the near irrelevant state it's become.  Really, that's it in a nutshell for me.

That's it, exactly what I've been saying for months. The desperation of those that want to take him down is very telling. 

I'm also glad he is turning down the debate, he doesn't need another hit job like the last one. Smart. 

[jamo]

2 minutes ago, Braivo said:

I'm also glad he is turning down the debate, he doesn't need another hit job like the last one. Smart. 

I'm amped to watch Cruz vs. Kasich.

[Dave2512]

A debate without the frontrunner at this point is pointless. What are they going to debate who doesn't have a chance to get to 1237.

The stop Trump movement is getting more strange every day. Instead of asking why is this happening their only focus is stopping him. Trump isn't the problem they are. They don't want to fix what's broken only save their jobs.  

[Gunther]

10 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

 Trump isn't the problem they are. They don't want to fix what's broken only save their jobs.  

By jove, I think he's got it!

Debate has been canceled, Kasich pulled out as soon as he heard Trump did.  Poor Fox News.

[saevel25]

3 hours ago, Braivo said:

The train keeps rolling. The only loss was to a popular sitting governor in his home state with zero chance to win the nomination. Things look pretty good for Trump right now. We will see if the GOPe continues to push for a brokered convention or accepts the inevitable Trump nom.

Not when you have a brokered convention. The loss in Ohio is pretty substantial.

3 hours ago, Gunther said:

Heard a comment earlier today that really crystallized Trump's continued success and it resonated with me:  "He has all the right enemies."  Those fighting so hard to take him down are those who have let this country degenerate into the near irrelevant state it's become.  Really, that's it in a nutshell for me.

That still doesn't support that Trump has any better ideas than the establishment. Just because the establishment hates you doesn't mean your a good guy or the right guy. It might just mean your worse than the establishment.

1 hour ago, jamo said:

I'm amped to watch Cruz vs. Kasich.

Interesting fact. Kasich is the only candidate left that runs a clean campaign when asked in the exit polls.

Though I am not sure if push comes to shove. The percentage is pretty high. 43% of Republican voters would vote for a 3rd party candidate if it was just Trump versus Clinton.

Also if it was just Kasich versus Trump in Ohio 56% of voters would have voted for Kasich, while Trump only jumps to 40%.  If this gets to a two man race does Trump get over 50%?

Also, 4% of people said they would just not vote if it was Trump versus Kasich.  Can Trump afford to lose 4% of the Republican vote in the General Election?

17 minutes ago, Gunther said:

Debate has been canceled, Kasich pulled out as soon as he heard Trump did.  Poor Fox News.

Good move by Kasich. He doesn't want to get drawn into a pissing match with Cruz while Trump gets to sit back and tweet about it.

[Braivo]

19 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Not when you have a brokered convention. The loss in Ohio is pretty substantial.

That still doesn't support that Trump has any better ideas than the establishment. Just because the establishment hates you doesn't mean your a good guy or the right guy. It might just mean your worse than the establishment.

Interesting fact. Kasich is the only candidate left that runs a clean campaign when asked in the exit polls.

Though I am not sure if push comes to shove. The percentage is pretty high. 43% of Republican voters would vote for a 3rd party candidate if it was just Trump versus Clinton.

Also if it was just Kasich versus Trump in Ohio 56% of voters would have voted for Kasich, while Trump only jumps to 40%.  If this gets to a two man race does Trump get over 50%?

Also, 4% of people said they would just not vote if it was Trump versus Kasich.  Can Trump afford to lose 4% of the Republican vote in the General Election?

Good move by Kasich. He doesn't want to get drawn into a pissing match with Cruz while Trump gets to sit back and tweet about it.

I could trace this thread back for months and see where you have been wrong every single step of the way. There was a time that you said his cap was 20%, then 30%, now he is polling over 50% among GOP voters nationally. He continues to defy all precedent. He has cleared every single hurdle in his path thus far.

Also, your argument that he only pulls x% of GOP voters is flawed, so is your argument that he fares poorly against Clinton. The fact is those GE polls are historically flawed. Reagan trailed Carter by 25 points at this time in the cycle and went on to win 44 states. 

Kasich has zero chance of winning the nomination, he was only in the race as a favor to Soros to help reach a brokered convention. It's purely games at this point with the only goal being a halt to Trump's run.

The problem is if you sabotage the nominee with the most votes you alienate all of those voters. You talk about Trump "losing" 4% of voters who won't vote, try losing 35-40% of Trump voters who won't come out for a different nominee. Can the GOP survive that and beat Clinton? No way. 

The only chance the GOP has to beat Clinton is consolidating behind Trump. Period. Any other outcome is handing the election to Clinton, which some in the GOP seem to feel is a better option that running Trump as their nominee. Either way, the GOP has lost big in this election cycle by ignoring the tide of voters that find themselves in Trump's camp and not appropriately represented by the GOP. 

[newtogolf]

The establishment on both sides like to have the candidates deep in their pockets and the pockets of their lobbyists.  Trump isn't in their pockets and that scares the crap out of them, he's a wildcard that will do what he thinks is right without any consideration to the establishment.  

I imagine the GOP would rather lose this election than allow Trump to become POTUS.  Trump is a bit too smart for them so rather than give them and FOX another shot at taking him down at the debate he pulled out.  You can say what you want about him, but he's pretty strategic and knows that with each primary he's gaining more and more strength.  

If the establishment is smart, they cut a deal with him, such as he takes Kasich as his V.P. and they won't broker the convention.  

[saevel25]

6 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Kasich has zero chance of winning the nomination, he was only in the race as a favor to Soros to help reach a brokered convention. It's purely games at this point with the only goal being a halt to Trump's run

Yep. Go Ohio ;) 

6 minutes ago, Braivo said:

The problem is if you sabotage the nominee with the most votes you alienate all of those voters. You talk about Trump "losing" 4% of voters who won't vote, try losing 35-40% of Trump voters who won't come out for a different nominee. Can the GOP survive that and beat Clinton? No way. 

That is a possibility. I was just talking with reference of Trump, not much of anything else. That concept has passed my mind. I think if Trump doesn't win Clinton wins over Cruz. No way Trumps supporters get out to vote for Cruz. Most of his voters usually are not high on voting to begin with, still I think many would just push for Trump to run as an independent. 

8 minutes ago, Braivo said:

The only chance the GOP has to beat Clinton is consolidating behind Trump. Period. Any other outcome is handing the election to Clinton, which some in the GOP seem to feel is a better option that running Trump as their nominee. Either way, the GOP has lost big in this election cycle by ignoring the tide of voters that find themselves in Trump's camp and not appropriately represented by the GOP. 

Yep, I agree here. 

The issue is still congress is probably a mess for the next 50 years. I don't think anyone gets anything done with the way things are now. The biggest issue is the Supreme Court. Do you let Hillary nominate someone? That is a scary proposition. 

Besides that I doubt any substantial legislative issues get done with Trump or Clinton. To me nothing changes. I know people are banking on that Trump will change things. To me the odds of him changing the culture of congress is very low. Ok I am taking that back.  With a good 35% of the establishment pissed off at the GOP. I would call that the Trump base. I can see them causing some havoc for existing GOP members in congress in some areas.

Though I don't think that helps the Democrats gain leverage because it isn't like those who support Trump are big liberals or would pass liberal legislation. A lot of them still identify themselves as moderately or very conservative. 

I think it's going to a contested convention. The GOP is probably stupid enough to drive that wedge into their party. 

 

 

[Braivo]

23 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

I imagine the GOP would rather lose this election than allow Trump to become POTUS.  Trump is a bit too smart for them so rather than give them and FOX another shot at taking him down at the debate he pulled out.  You can say what you want about him, but he's pretty strategic and knows that with each primary he's gaining more and more strength.  

If the establishment is smart, they cut a deal with him, such as he takes Kasich as his V.P. and they won't broker the convention.  

 

21 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I think it's going to a contested convention. The GOP is probably stupid enough to drive that wedge into their party. 

As we've seen up to this point, they (GOPe) are not very smart at all. They are simply too caught up in their egos to see that the tide has changed. Rather than go with it they are fighting against it, they will lose. 

Trump has extended the olive branch for a deal, he stopped all of his attacks and rhetoric about a week ago and started calling for unity. Any of the mudslinging you see now is coming from the media trying to stop Trump. Watch him carefully, he is looking very Presidential right now. 

The problem is the GOPe will not cut a deal with him, I guarantee he has offered one, the man is a master deal maker. So now he will act very Presidential from this point forward so they look like the bad guys when they force the contested convention. 

[Dave2512]

Trump's version of presidential is refraining from juvenile name calling he still hasn't said anything of substance. It's going to take more than believe me I'll make great deals he won't be able to ride the wave of vague to the WH. It's one thing to trade barbs with the noobs Little Marco and Cruz but that crap isn't going to work with Clinton.

[saevel25]

18 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

Trump's version of presidential is refraining from juvenile name calling he still hasn't said anything of substance. It's going to take more than believe me I'll make great deals he won't be able to ride the wave of vague to the WH. It's one thing to trade barbs with the noobs Little Marco and Cruz but that crap isn't going to work with Clinton.

That matches with the fact that the primary reason people vote for Trump is because he "Tells it how it is". When that is your primary reason it just speaks lack of substance. 

[Dave2512]

Yep but his it has been nothing more than patriotic slogans. His promises so far haven't come with a plan so those buying his "tells it how it is" need to do more than cheer they need to ask how. He has about a half dozen stock answers that mention great deals, walls and walls getting taller.

[nevets88]

California's June primary just became crucial in the race for the White House [LAT]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-california-primary-20160316-story.html

Despite four more victories on Tuesday, Donald Trump is still not doing well enough to clinch the GOP nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer [US News & World Report]

http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-03-16/trump-still-not-doing-well-enough-to-guarantee-nomination

I was curious which remaining states were winner take all, here's the list.

Quote

March 19, 2016 (9 bound delegates)

• U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all

March 22, 2016 (107 bound delegates)

• American Samoa Convention (9) — Delegates elected and bound at convention
• Arizona Primary (58) — Winner take all
• Utah Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Spring Break

After a month of intense voting, the calendar slows with just 134 delegates bound over the course of a month. This could sap candidates’ momentum, either elongating a close race for the nomination or forcing underperforming and underfunded candidates from the race before the home stretch.

April 5, 2016 (42 bound)

• Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

April 9, 2016 (0 bound)

• Colorado Convention (37/0) — Delegates elected at district and state conventions, and bound as they declare

April 19, 2016 (92 bound)

• New York Primary (95/92) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)

More moderate Republicans have an opportunity to be heard at a critical juncture.

• Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district
• Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all
• Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all
  Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound
• Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold

May 3, 2016 (54 bound)

• Indiana Primary (57/54) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

May 10, 2016 (67 bound)

• Nebraska Primary (36) — Winner take all
• West Virginia Primary (34/31) — Delegates elected directly on ballot and bound by preference

May 17, 2016 (25 bound)

• Oregon Primary (28/25) — Proportional

May 27, 2016 (41 bound)

• Washington Primary (44/41) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Last Call: June 7, 2016 (294 bound)

The final primary day, with a large crop of delegates up for grabs.

• California Primary (172/169) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district
• Montana Primary (27) — Winner take all
• New Jersey Primary (51) — Winner take all
• New Mexico Primary (24/21) — Proportional with 15% threshold
• South Dakota Primary (29/26) — Winner take all

http://time.com/4059030/republican-primary-calendar-2016-nomination-convention/

[Braivo]

1 hour ago, Dave2512 said:

Trump's version of presidential is refraining from juvenile name calling he still hasn't said anything of substance. It's going to take more than believe me I'll make great deals he won't be able to ride the wave of vague to the WH. It's one thing to trade barbs with the noobs Little Marco and Cruz but that crap isn't going to work with Clinton.

 

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

That matches with the fact that the primary reason people vote for Trump is because he "Tells it how it is". When that is your primary reason it just speaks lack of substance. 

No one has detailed any specifics yet. If you look at Trump's website his plans are as specific as any other candidates. Cruz simply parroted Trump at the last debate, his platform has become indistinguishable from Trump's. In fact, the entire GOP has basically adopted his platform with their argument being they are less "crazy" than Trump. The public sees right through that. 

I am realistic and not some GOP slappy. Trump is not far from being a Democrat on a lot of issues, and he can't come out and say in a GOP primary that he favors mandates and gay marriage. He knows how to win the game. I know he will pivot pretty far left on a lot of issues for GE. I am ok with that. 

29 minutes ago, nevets88 said:

California's June primary just became crucial in the race for the White House [LAT]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-california-primary-20160316-story.html

Despite four more victories on Tuesday, Donald Trump is still not doing well enough to clinch the GOP nomination for president before the party's national convention this summer [US News & World Report]

http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-03-16/trump-still-not-doing-well-enough-to-guarantee-nomination

I was curious which remaining states were winner take all, here's the list.

http://time.com/4059030/republican-primary-calendar-2016-nomination-convention/

Yup, it will come down to CA, but Trump will be very, very strong there. It will come down to the wire though. I am looking forward to the quiet stretch coming up after next week though. This has been an emotional roller coaster for a Trump supporter. 

[RandallT]

4 hours ago, Braivo said:

Yup, it will come down to CA, but Trump will be very, very strong there. It will come down to the wire though. I am looking forward to the quiet stretch coming up after next week though. This has been an emotional roller coaster for a Trump supporter. 

I wouldn't really worry. I think this is Trump's nomination. Here's why:

First, who could the GOPe (establishment) bring in off the bench? Certainly none of the guys who have dropped so far. And who is on the bench? Paul Ryan? Mitt? Doubtful to me. I initially thought the Republicans were deep in leadership with governors and senators, but now I've realized that each of their "stars" has fatal flaws. Our political class is truly horrible when you pause to look at each one. I can't think of a SINGLE Republican who could effectively step up from the bench at the convention and run with the nomination with any authority. It's just a non-starter. Who am I missing?

So that leaves Cruz and Kasich. Kasich- no way. He's just out of step with the times. Good guy, good governor. He's not gonna make up the deficit. He seems stuck in the 80s, and has zero charisma.

Cruz- doubtful. He's the one guy that the GOPe fears more than Trump. They won't unite around Cruz. Plus, my high-schooler summed it up perfectly when she first saw Cruz a while back, "ewwwwww." Conservatives love his ideological purity, but he's just a bit creepy looking, and his charisma is lacking. He dropped a lot in not backing Trump over the protestors too. He doesn't catch fire except after debates (where he zings Trump well), and Trump is shutting those down, wisely. What vehicle does Cruz have now? Press conferences? Rallies? Trump can move the needle- Cruz can't.

Even if Trump doesn't get the delegates needed by the convention, he's a wheeler dealer. The convention could play to his advantage, as I doubt Cruz knows how to negotiate his way to the nomination. Heck, Trump got Carson to endorse him! Carson's the guy Trump compared to a pedophile! Trump can make deals, that's his life story. 

So basically I think Trump is the alpha male, and he'll win this nomination. The media is totally overthinking it and making this more dramatic than it is. (I'll gladly eat my words if this is wrong!)

(disclaimer: none of this has to deal with any policies, qualifications, or ideology. Just strictly personality and charisma. In my mind, the media obscures all that wonky stuff in their coverage, and it'll be a brawl at a personal level for most people. CNN today spent most of their coverage talking about what a racist, sexist, irresponsible, violent person Trump is- basically calling the electorate the same thing. They totally overlook Trump's charisma and the lack of charisma of his opponents. This election is not about issues, nor about "how" Trump wil do anything, it's about who people will be proud to have as their leader to stand up for them. The wonky analysis seems irrelevant so far.)