Which Would Be More Impressive: An Amateur Winning the Open, or a Grand Slam?

[jbishop15]

Grand slam. That would truly be one of the most remarkable things in sports history.

[iacas]

Grand slam. That would truly be one of the most remarkable things in sports history.

And to think it's already happened in the last 15 years…

[jbishop15]

And to think it's already happened in the last 15 years…

I believe they call that the Tiger Slam

[iacas]

I believe they call that the Tiger Slam

Erik J. Barzeski — ⛳ I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
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[jbishop15]

Was still a grand slam IMO.

Oh I don't disagree. But I think a lot of people don't see it that way.

[iacas]

Oh I don't disagree. But I think a lot of people don't see it that way.

Then vote here:

[mailman]

Is this guy really just an amateur though (thinking of it in a much more broader sense to what the meaning of amateur meant back in the day)? I think an amateur from decades ago winning would be a lot different to the "professional" amateurs who play at the top level these days winning.

Mailman

[tomvk77]

A grandslam for sure, it takes 4 different courses over the season.

[boogielicious]

I voted Amateur just to mess up the poll! Actually, in this day and age it is every impressive that an amateur is contending. It is not like he is the top amateur either.

[iacas]

Is this guy really just an amateur though (thinking of it in a much more broader sense to what the meaning of amateur meant back in the day)? I think an amateur from decades ago winning would be a lot different to the "professional" amateurs who play at the top level these days winning.

Bobby Jones was thought by many to be a "professional" - but he's still called an amateur.

There's still a fairly sizable difference between being a pro and an amateur in modern golf.

[GolfLug]

+1 for Grand Slam. A good amateur can have a good week but 4 Majors in a year is sustained class. Now, the likelihood of a modern amateur winning a major compared to a grand slam? Well, that might be a different story... I know there are no statistical models to predict either one of those to make a meaningful comparison.

[nevets88]

Spieth: not surprised to see an amateur win a major in the next 10 years. I would have guessed this would happen more for the women's game than the men. More Michelle Wie like players in the future. Thing is, an amateur nowadays, is not the amateur of old. Way more pro than am.

Quote:

The gap with the professional game is closing fast, and Jordan Spieth stated he would not be surprised to see an amateur win a major in the next decade or so.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/jul/20/the-open-2015-paul-dunne-amateur-jordan-niebrugge-silver-medal

[misty_mountainhop]

Grand Slam. No "ifs", "buts" or "maybes".

Maybe 30-40 years ago I'd be harder pressed to go one way or the other but today's top amateurs are pros in all but name and endorsements. Paul Dunne, for example, is +5 I think at the moment and just thinking about what that means gives me a headache. He has to shoot -4, on average (or better) every round (usually from tournament tees) in order to maintain that handicap.

The modern ams are young, fit, have full-time coaches, golfing scholarships etc etc etc.

[mtsalmela80]

We may never see a modern era grand slam, and today more and more amateurs are on top of the leaderboard. An amateur win is much more likely.

[MacGruber]

i voted grand slam as well.  you can look at some of the first year pros and see that they're really, really good.  winning 4 times against the best of the best would be much harder.

[RussUK]

Bobby Jones was thought by many to be a "professional" - but he's still called an amateur.

There's still a fairly sizable difference between being a pro and an amateur in modern golf.

Wasnt Bobby the last amateur to win the Open?

I think it would be an excellent achievement for an Amateur to win, however i think winning the Slam is more difficult these days down to the depth of talent thats on tour.

Not saying Tiger didnt have competition, but he was just a different bred of golfer back then (fitness, practice regime etc.) compared who he was playing against and the current crop have had to up theri games and regimes to counter Tiger.

[David in FL]

Given the quality of top amateur play these days, the GS seems much more difficult, and less likely.

[dbuck]

Even if the chances were even, which they aren't , or at least more than I can "cipher" as Jethro said, the probability of a slam is much lower. In statistics, the chance of a multiple occurence is the product of the individual probabilities. The chance of a coin toss is 50/50. The chance of heads 4 times in a row is .5x.5x.5x.5. The chance each time is still 50/50, but the chance of all four is the product of the probablities.

Just making up numbers, say that a top 20ish pro has a 1/100 (.01) chance of winning a given major, and a top am has a 1/1000 chance (.001). The chance of the pro winning all 4 at the same time is .01x.01x.01x.01 or .00000001, where the chance of am winning is still .001 each time.