Interesting Play Pattern Research Results

[Psychonana]

Over the past few weeks I've been collecting data worldwide pertaining to play patterns. (PM me if you'd like to take the survey and I'll send you the link (If the board will allow it))

Do you know 50% of you expect risk shots to fail up to half the time! 71% of you say that you have up to 3 of these risk shots per round, which translates to potentially 1.5 guaranteed disaster holes. (and 26% of you have up to 6 high risk shots per round translating to 3 disasters!)

65% of you will take the risk shot even if you know there is less than 50/50 chance of success!

Yet, 76% of you want to achieve a lower handicap and always work towards this. 

So why do we continue to take these risky shots when the outcome is weighed against us, AND we know it? Why is it so hard to play percentage golf? SO many questions! :)

[iacas]

Send a copy of the survey to me please.

I will probably have you share the data shortly. Assuming that's your intent.

[GolfLug]

You think amateurs hit only 3 shots a round with worse than 50% expected success (keep the ball in play) ???? Wow..

ALL shots have risk. How many amateurs have better than 50% chance of hitting fairway (with a decent distance) with a driver in hand? Need to hit driver (or a 3 wood or some kind of long club) atleast 10-12 times a round right? So that is at least 10-12 'disaster' shots you must hit in a round and that is not even counting the number of approach shots you must hit.

Work on improving your swing to reduce risk. There is no way around it. The course risk management you are talking of is only a very small percentage of blow up holes.

I would suggest read LSW (Lowest Score Wins) to get some more clarity.

25 minutes ago, Psychonana said:

Over the past few weeks I've been collecting data worldwide pertaining to play patterns. (PM me if you'd like to take the survey and I'll send you the link (If the board will allow it))

Do you know 50% of you expect risk shots to fail up to half the time! 71% of you say that you have up to 3 of these risk shots per round, which translates to potentially 1.5 guaranteed disaster holes. (and 26% of you have up to 6 high risk shots per round translating to 3 disasters!)

65% of you will take the risk shot even if you know there is less than 50/50 chance of success!

Yet, 76% of you want to achieve a lower handicap and always work towards this. 

So why do we continue to take these risky shots when the outcome is weighed against us, AND we know it? Why is it so hard to play percentage golf? SO many questions! :)

 

[DaveP043]

18 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

You think amateurs hit only 3 shots a round with worse than 50% expected success (keep the ball in play) ???? Wow..

I'm guessing that this is based only on the golfer's perception of the level of risk.  Many of us, maybe most of us, don't really know what our chance of success is for any particular shot, so that most of us probably underestimate the number of "risky" shots we attempt.

[Psychonana]

14 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

You think amateurs hit only 3 shots a round with worse than 50% expected success (keep the ball in play) ???? Wow..

ALL shots have risk. How many amateurs have better than 50% chance of hitting fairway (with a decent distance) with a driver in hand? Need to hit driver (or a 3 wood or some kind of long club) atleast 10-12 times a round right? So that is at least 10-12 'disaster' shots you must hit in a round and that is not even counting the number of approach shots you must hit.

Work on improving your swing to reduce risk. There is no way around it. The course risk management you are talking of is only a very small percentage of blow up holes.

I would suggest read LSW (Lowest Score Wins) to get some more clarity.

 

It's not what I think GolfLug, it's what the data I collected says. Yes, all shots have a risk of being badly executed, but this is pretty much unmeasurable and not what the survey was focusing on.  I'm not sure many would agree with you that improving your swing is the only means to reduce risk! You are comparing apples and oranges I would think. Yes, LSW does deal with these issues.

3 minutes ago, DaveP043 said:

I'm guessing that this is based only on the golfer's perception of the level of risk.  Many of us, maybe most of us, don't really know what our chance of success is for any particular shot, so that most of us probably underestimate the number of "risky" shots we attempt.

Exactly, you can't define risk in golf as one single entity. For my research I separated it into 2 main types to keep it simple. Essentially; Risk you can't anticipate. Such as a tee shot. And risk you can anticipate such as a sand shot, or a bad or obstructed lie.

34 minutes ago, iacas said:

Send a copy of the survey to me please.

I will probably have you share the data shortly. Assuming that's your intent.

Just PM'd you.

[GolfLug]

So this is simply data based on individual 'perception' of risk. Ok, in that case carry on. I will reserve further comments for now.  

 

[Psychonana]

5 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

So this is simply data based on individual 'perception' of risk. Ok, in that case carry on. I will reserve further comments for now.  

 

??? Well, it's not really based on this either. The questions were specific to certain situations. 

[Jeremie Boop]

I think it's partially because people who have nothing to lose except for some strokes in a friendly game are willing to take extra risks. Now, if you put them into a competition scenario I would assume that they are more likely to take the safer shot. I know that depending on what I'd doing I'll either be more or less likely to take  a risky shot. I definitely want to improve my index, but sometimes it's nice to try those shots when it really doesn't matter if I pull it off or not. Plus, it gives something fun/cool to talk about when/if I pull the shot off.

[CarlSpackler]

Aren't you influencing the answers to the survey somewhat by giving out the conclusion that you have drawn thus far?

[Psychonana]

2 minutes ago, Jeremie Boop said:

I think it's partially because people who have nothing to lose except for some strokes in a friendly game are willing to take extra risks. Now, if you put them into a competition scenario I would assume that they are more likely to take the safer shot. I know that depending on what I'd doing I'll either be more or less likely to take  a risky shot. I definitely want to improve my index, but sometimes it's nice to try those shots when it really doesn't matter if I pull it off or not. Plus, it gives something fun/cool to talk about when/if I pull the shot off.

Yes, this is definitely a factor, and would definietly account for the 22% who are happy with their level or don't believe they can improve their scoring or h. index. But I'd argue that the 76% who say they want to improve, including yourself, might be less inclined to take the hero shot if they had a good card going. (as you say you'll try it; "when it really doesn't matter")

I am also seeing that as the handicap index gets lower the evaluation of risk gets more conservative. Interesting because we can assume that their skills are better and they would be more capable of success. 

7 minutes ago, CarlSpackler said:

Aren't you influencing the answers to the survey somewhat by giving out the conclusion that you have drawn thus far?

Yes, I guess a little... :) but the questions in general are specific. Only a few that ask about one's perception.

[Patch]

Way back when I was playing pretty good golf, risk didn't enter into my game that much. I saw the shot I needed to hit, and most of the time I pulled it off. 

These days, it's pretty much the same. Difference is, being some what distance challenged, there is still not that much risk involved. I see what I need to do, I know my limitations, and I hit my shot. Some of those shots are just better than others. 

Perhaps it's possible that I equate risk with pressure. I have never  been one to allow pressure to bother me when playing golf. I really like playing in a relaxed manner. I am also a patient kind of golfer. 

Funny this topic came up. Last week I played with a really good golfer. We were both walk ons, and did not know each other. He shot a really good looking 3 under par 69. I shot an 80. After the end of our round, while having a beverage in the 19th, he told me that I probably would have broke 80, if I had taken some "riskier shots". I told him I just played my normal game. Go figure.

[Psychonana]

3 minutes ago, Patch said:

Way back when I was playing pretty good golf, risk didn't enter into my game that much. I saw the shot I needed to hit, and most of the time I pulled it off. 

These days, it's pretty much the same. Difference is, being some what distance challenged, there is still not that much risk involved. I see what I need to do, I know my limitations, and I hit my shot. Some of those shots are just better than others. 

Perhaps it's possible that I equate risk with pressure. I have never  been one to allow pressure to bother me when playing golf. I really like playing in a relaxed manner. I am also a patient kind of golfer. 

Funny this topic came up. Last week I played with a really good golfer. We were both walk ons, and did not know each other. He shot a really good looking 3 under par 69. I shot an 80. After the end of our round, while having a beverage in the 19th, he told me that I probably would have broke 80, if I had taken some "riskier shots". I told him I just played my normal game. Go figure.

Risk and pressure definitely interact for most of us, I would think, but definitely we all handle these factors differently. (picture a 3ft lateral downhill putt on a slope for a birdie!) I think it's a balance that we all need to find in our game to give us a sense of control. You are lucky that you seem to have found a nice balance, it certainly isn't as easy for me - it's one of my challenges for this year! :)  To further your nice story, I'm interested to know what you feel would have happened if he had told you to take more risk at the beginning of your round rather than at the end. Say you gave it a go, how do you think it may have gone? If it was me, I likely would have started to take chances that I should not and I instantly would have tried to match his game... It might not be a pretty sight in the end! Although if I was to repeat the scenario maybe 1 time out of 4 I would achieve what I set out to do. So is it worth the risk?

[Patch]

7 hours ago, Psychonana said:

Risk and pressure definitely interact for most of us, I would think, but definitely we all handle these factors differently. (picture a 3ft lateral downhill putt on a slope for a birdie!) I think it's a balance that we all need to find in our game to give us a sense of control. You are lucky that you seem to have found a nice balance, it certainly isn't as easy for me - it's one of my challenges for this year! :)  To further your nice story, I'm interested to know what you feel would have happened if he had told you to take more risk at the beginning of your round rather than at the end. Say you gave it a go, how do you think it may have gone? If it was me, I likely would have started to take chances that I should not and I instantly would have tried to match his game... It might not be a pretty sight in the end! Although if I was to repeat the scenario maybe 1 time out of 4 I would achieve what I set out to do. So is it worth the risk?

Right off the 1st tee, I knew he had a game there was no way I could match up with. 

Now if he had mentioned up front for me to take some risk, there were 3 shots where taking a risk could of helped. One would have been cutting a dog leg. The other two would have been going for bunker protected greens, and not laying up in front of those bunkers. So if I pulled off two, and putted well, perhaps that 80 would have been a 78-79. 

Another thing is that when I play with someone who has a really great golf game, I tend to watch them play, more than I pay attention to my own game at the time. Great rounds of golf are a pleasure to watch in person. 

[No Mulligans]

Can I take the survey?

[No Mulligans]

I think it's easy to overestimate the risk.  If you don't take the risk and lay up to a creek, you now have two opportunities to have a poor shot and could still end up in the creek.  One could assign probabilites to all the scenarios and work it out with math, it gets complicated.  But the result is often one overestimates the risk of going for it by not considering all the scenarios.

The biggest blow-up comes from laying up and then messing up the next shot and ending up in the hazard anyways.

Did the survey take the multiple possible scenarios of considering risk into account?

 

[Psychonana]

10 hours ago, Patch said:

Another thing is that when I play with someone who has a really great golf game, I tend to watch them play, more than I pay attention to my own game at the time. Great rounds of golf are a pleasure to watch in person. 

Ah yes, for me playing with great golfers really helps me tidy up my game. I'm glued to them as they make their club choices. :) 

[Club Rat]

On ‎2‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 8:10 AM, Psychonana said:

Over the past few weeks I've been collecting data worldwide pertaining to play patterns.

Just out of curiosity, what is the source of the data?
Only from your survey? From websites? From Apps?
Also, will you be sharing the results to TST readers for discussion?

[Psychonana]

46 minutes ago, Club Rat said:

Just out of curiosity, what is the source of the data?
Only from your survey? From websites? From Apps?
Also, will you be sharing the results to TST readers for discussion?

Yes, just through the survey. There is no other way to capture the information I'm looking for which is pertaining to risk assessment, confidence, experience and goal setting. The data is solicited from golf forums and social communities worldwide. Yes, absolutely, the results and analysis will be published for debate and discussion. 

Edited February 9, 2017 by Psychonana