How Would You Play It? (Hole #10 at Goose Creek)

[Lihu]

6 minutes ago, iacas said:

It's still difficult, @Lihu. Look at the PGA Tour stats.

Yeah, I agree. It's a really difficult shot. I was just joking about the fact that he'd likely be in the bunker.

 

[mvmac]

20 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

If it's really thick rough, then I understand taking this play. But, beyond that, I would take a shot from 70 yards in the rough over a 120-140 yard shot every time.

Right and I would typically agree. 

For me the hangup is that bunker. Even though I hit it fairly straight off the tee, having 75 yards compared 125 yards isn't worth it enough for me to risk being in that bunker (my typical miss with a driver is a little pull or a toe overdraw). I don't really gain that much hitting the driver and as @iacas just pointed out there isn't a lot of room to work with right of the bunker. If I lay up I'm still hitting a wedge or 9-iron worst case scenario.

[DeadMan]

18 minutes ago, iacas said:

It's not 60 yards wide.

That changes things, particularly since I measured pretty much to the edge of the bunker, and you could end up behind that little tree in the right rough, too. Anything over the cart path is likely blocked out by trees.

Ah, this is what I get for trusting @Golfingdad. I will keep this in mind for the Newport Cup

45 yards isn't a ton of room for the driver, given that there's trouble on both sides. Looks more and more like a lay up now.

[Jeremie Boop]

5 minutes ago, mvmac said:

Right and I would typically agree.

For me the hangup is that bunker. Even though I hit it fairly straight off the tee, having 75 yards compared 125 yards isn't worth it enough for me to risk being in that bunker (my typical miss with a driver is a pull or a toe overdraw). I don't really gain that much hitting the driver and if I lay up I'm still hitting a wedge or 9-iron worst case scenario.

For me, I still have some trouble when trying to lay up. A lot of the time I'll either worry about hitting it too far and duff it or worry about hitting it too short and nuke it. The only time I typically am able to pull off a lay up reliably is on a hole I've played a lot and am really comfortable with what I need to hit. Given the fact that my drive almost never goes straight it seems the safest play would be to just aim at the bunker and let my normal tendency of missing my target line to either side by 20ish yards  keep me out of it. Now that I type that out it seems like a pretty funny thing to say but it's pretty much true for me that if I want to miss something the best thing to do is aim for it 

[JxQx]

29 minutes ago, iacas said:

You regularly carry the ball 290?

Right around 280-290. From the pictured it looked like the 290 line was about 10 yards ish past the bunker.

[Grinde6]

That's a HUGE carry to carry the middle bunker.  My play would be to lay up with a 5i-6i and maybe try to squeeze any roll out into the middle of the bunkers.  That would be anywhere from a GW-9i depending on the roll out.  That to me is the smartest play anyone could make, because people say they can play 60 yard bunker shots until they are faced with them...the reality is that they are pretty difficult.  If I am feeling good and my drives have been going good and I'm playing well, I might be stupid and take a driver and aim at the right side of the fairway with a little draw...but the 40-60 yard savings to me isn't worth hitting the bunker.  I am perfectly fine with a 9i at worst into this green.

[bkuehn1952]

I don't want to be in the fairway bunker.  While I can hit the shot required from the bunker at times, my GIR is going to be higher laying up short or fitting a shot in on the right.  When one is in a fairway bunker, some pretty bad things can occur (lips, near the edge, bad lies, poorly struck shots, etc...).  Everyone is assuming the position & lie in the bunker is going to be very good. 

[Grinde6]

5 minutes ago, JxQx said:

Right around 280-290. From the pictured it looked like the 290 line was about 10 yards ish past the bunker.

"Carry" was the key-word...

[JxQx]

Just now, Grinde6 said:

"Carry" was the key-word...

I'm aware.

[iacas]

9 minutes ago, JxQx said:

Right around 280-290. From the pictured it looked like the 290 line was about 10 yards ish past the bunker.

298 carries the left bunker. 273 carries only about 2/3 or 3/4 of the largest bunker. And @Golfingdad, who cannot be trusted, said 285 off the tee.

I'd wager that most of the time you're not carrying that bunker.

[Lihu]

10 minutes ago, iacas said:

298 carries the left bunker. 273 carries only about 2/3 or 3/4 of the largest bunker. And @Golfingdad, who cannot be trusted, said 285 off the tee.

I'd wager that most of the time you're not carrying that bunker.

I feel so bad for you, Drew @Golfingdad . . .

Just used google earth and from the back tee position as far back as possible it looks like 288 yards. I'd guess you would need something like an average 295 carry to clear it with no wind. I know some people who can carry 300+ yards possibly half the time. The other times they "only" carry 270-ish. Generally, they end up in the water with a 280 yard carry 5 to 10 yards short.

That's a really long way to hit a ball! Impressive to watch, but they still make mistakes. . .

[JxQx]

5 minutes ago, iacas said:

298 carries the left bunker. 273 carries only about 2/3 or 3/4 of the largest bunker. And @Golfingdad, who cannot be trusted, said 285 off the tee.

I'd wager that most of the time you're not carrying that bunker.

The picture shows that the end of the center bunker is 283 to carry. I'd hit driver unless it's cold our there is wind.

[Grinde6]

4 minutes ago, Lihu said:

I feel so bad for you, Drew @Golfingdad . . .

Just used google earth and from the back tee position as far back as possible it looks like 288 yards. I'd guess you would need something like an average 295 carry to clear it with no wind. I know some people who can carry 300+ yards possibly half the time. The other times they "only" carry 270-ish. Generally, they end up in the water with a 280 yard carry.

That's a really long way to hit a ball! Impressive to watch, but they still make mistakes. . .

We only remember our good shots...the ones that went over 300 yards...the 250 yard drive that missed the fairway right, or the 230 yarder that went into the trees we don't remember...those don't count towards our averages...

[billchao]

I'm laying up. Driver puts all 3 bunkers into play and even if I manage to avoid them, it looks like there isn't a flat lie up there. Laying up avoids the hazards, gives you the most fairway to land in, and likely a flat lie to work with.

It's a short hole. I'm not going to gain enough strokes hitting my approach shot from 60-90 out as opposed to 120-135 to justify the risk off the tee.

[David in FL]

3 hours ago, RandallT said:

Great topic. 

For those picking #2 who aren't too worried about the bunker, I'm curious why not just go #1?

Wouldnt the better angle be worth the risk, if getting stuck in a bunker isn't too worrying? 

Something about those bunkers on the left must be pushing the decision to go right. 

I first chose 2, in fact, but I'll take my chances and just bomb one left side of the fairway. I hit a nice 70yd gap wedge from a fairway bunker last round to the middle of a green so I'll roll the dice and hope for a decent lie if I end up in one over there.

I feel like I can hole out in the fewest strokes by approaching the green from that direction- i.e., I want to say I'm more likely to get on the green from the area in #1 than the others (even factoring in bunkers). My shot zone on my approach is deeper than it is wide, so coming at the green from the left suits me more (I hope).

 

I picked 2.  Simply, I'm not nearly long enough to carry the length of the center bunker.

In looking at it again though, 3 is a very good, maybe even better, option for me.  I play a very consistent cut and again, generally don't need to worry about the 3d bunker 261 from the tee.  If I hit driver at that first bunker on the left, I'm likely perfect.  Even if I get unlucky and catch one of the bunkers, as I said before, I still like the shorter shot in, over the lay up way short, especially with the entire length of the green now open to me.

Looks like a fun little hole.  I'd like to play it some day.

[mdl]

I think you're math is off.  The card you showed says it's 118 to green center from the front of the giant bunker.  If you're playing the back tees – the tees with the 352 distance you quoted – then it's 234 to the big bunker from the tee.

Either way, I'm basically never going with option 1.  My shot zone just isn't that tight with my driver.  I'm probably carrying the left bunker, but with a good drive, and especially with SoCal carry and roll distance, I'm likely to make it to the left bunker if my shot goes that direction, so left side I'm really aiming at that short path between the far left and giant bunkers, which I don't like at all.  And my 3W is probably the worst club in my bag, and I'm not sure I consistently carry the short left bunker with that, so that's not an option either.

So that leaves options 2 and 3.  If my driver dispersion is relatively tight that day – I should know by this point in the round – I'll probably play it out to the right, aiming a touch left of halfway between the bunker and the cart path – adjusted if my miss has been favoring one side more than normal that day.  My long/short dispersion with the short irons/wedges tends to be tighter than my left/right, so it's not super penal for me to have a shallow green approach.  And my left/right dispersion is significantly tighter with a partial 60˚ than with a full GW/PW like I'd have with option 3.  If my driver is average or worse, I'm hitting 2h, which won't get to the big bunker at 234, aiming it it the nearest point of the big bunker, as I want to stay towards the left side but don't want to hug the left side, as my left/right dispersion with the 2h isn't anything to write home about either.

[Big C]

3 minutes ago, David in FL said:

Looks like a fun little hole.  I'd like to play it some day.

You would like it. Even better, the course expects (and enforces) a 4 hour pace of play - lighting speed for a SoCal round!

[iacas]

8 minutes ago, JxQx said:

The picture shows that the end of the center bunker is 283 to carry. I'd hit driver unless it's cold our there is wind.

I don't know what you're seeing. It's 298 to the left bunker, 273 is the next line and it's still in the sand. Measuring by pixels I got 287 minimum and that's with an upslope out of the bunker not carried.

I still really doubt you're carrying that bunker even half the time. No way your Shot Zone with the driver puts it beyond 287 the 80% or so of the time required. Because even from 50 yards you're not making birdie all that often… one out of five or six times, probably.

http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.076.2016.html

6 minutes ago, billchao said:

It's a short hole. I'm not going to gain enough strokes hitting my approach shot from 60-90 out as opposed to 120-135 to justify the risk off the tee.

Pretty much. This isn't laying up versus going for it (or getting close) on a par five second shot with little difference in the trouble around (or all of the trouble being greenside).