Joe vs pro

[Fourputt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fourputt

The negative aspect of this philosophy is that you then are putting more pressure on what should be the "safe" shot.

If you play the hybrid first and put in good shape, then pressure is off with the driver and you can swing away without the confidence of knowing that you have a fall back position.  If your first shot with the hybrid is off, you still get a second chance with the easier club, and you already just had a practice shot with that club.

If you play driver first and put it in trouble, now you are in a position where you really need to hit a good one with the hybrid, which you probably haven't swung since the previous tee.  The only advantage I can see with going this way is if you hit the first one with the driver well, then you can really let it all hang out with the next swing.  But you can do that anyway with a good hybrid shot in play.

Different ways of looking at it.

Yeah, if you are going to play one "safe" shot and one "bold" shot, I'm like you and would prefer to hit the safe one first.  But in thinking about it some more, I don't think that is the right strategy - or at least not the one I'd take if it was me.

I would figure out the best strategy to the hole were I playing it normally, and then just do that twice.  If you're playing two identical hands of blackjack and you have 16 against a dealer 7, you're not better off staying on one and hitting on the other.  There is one correct move and you should do it both times.

Of course, if you do it perfectly the first time, then go right ahead and get reckless the second time.  Short par 4 of 290 with a huge hazard in front of the green?  Hit your 5 iron.  But if you put it in position, then there's no upside to repeating that, and there's no downside to trying to bomb one up by the green.  Go nuts!  Par 3's and approaches, if you hit the green with your first, by all means, go flag hunting with the second.

But don't short change yourself ahead of time by hitting a hybrid when the shot calls for a driver.

Think about it like this:  Have you ever played in a scramble?  Isn't it a good strategy to let the weaker players play first?  That way they are not only under less pressure, but if one of them makes a good shot, then the better players on the team can go for broke without any downside.  If you make the "D" player play last after nobody has really hit a very good shot, he might as well not even bother.  There have been a few times when I as the "A" or "B" player had to rethink and go with a 3W or long iron when nobody else got a ball in play.  Since I had the better game anyway, it was only logical for me to play later in the rotation because my game holds up better under pressure.

I see this just as a one man scramble, so I play the easier shot first with the least pressure.  Then if that goes well, the driver shot has no pressure at all because he's already in good shape.

[Golfingdad]

I think a fun exercise might be to discuss the best strategy for the 3 handicap.  I don't think that there are many of us out there that have played "worst" ball before.  Off the top of my head, I'm thinking that he's gotta play realllllly conservative on any holes where there is trouble of any kind.  He's not allowed to try any risky shots.  I don't know that I'd be comfortable ever hitting a driver.

[Big C]

That would be the wrong advice. Make him putt the longer ones.

If they're similar distance and one is very downhill, fine. Give him the downhill one.

I'd have to think about it at 27 versus 30. And still might take the "easy" 30 if the 27 wasn't rudiculous.

Longer putts are, the vast majority of the time, more difficult. And that's not really an opinion.

Don't you think that that odds of a bad result (for the sake of discussion, let's say "bad" refers to any leave of 5 feet or longer) are greater with a very delicate/tricky putt as opposed to a more straightforward putt, even if the straight putt is longer?

Obviously "tricky" means different things to different people, but what I am referring to is that 12 foot putt where you stand over the ball thinking "there's a one in 10 chance that I make this, but if I don't hit the hole, this ball is running 8 feet past." If you have to make that same putt twice, the odds of doing it are now one in 100, and the downside is still the same.

Compare this to the uphill 30 footer. Your odds of making it twice might be even more remote, say one in 200. But your worst likely leave is 3-4 feet.

Yep, take the longer putt regardless of the trickiness.

Off topic, but I'm thinking this would be an interesting experiment at the next SoCal outing. Could we find a spot on the practice putting green where someone was more likely to 3 putt from a much shorter distance (under "worst ball" conditions) than from a much longer distance but friendlier line?

[Pretzel]

A lot depends on what kind of person the pro is. I'm almost a 3 handicap, but in the four rounds of match play over the summer I played to a plus handicap (scores of 71, 72, 72, and 73 on a course rated at ~73) instead of my real handicap. I play a lot better when I know that my score on an individual hole is meaningless in the overall result, only how I score compared to my opponent. Do tell us how it turns out, I bet it'll be close.

[dkolo]

Think about it like this:  Have you ever played in a scramble?  Isn't it a good strategy to let the weaker players play first?  That way they are not only under less pressure, but if one of them makes a good shot, then the better players on the team can go for broke without any downside.  If you make the "D" player play last after nobody has really hit a very good shot, he might as well not even bother.  There have been a few times when I as the "A" or "B" player had to rethink and go with a 3W or long iron when nobody else got a ball in play.  Since I had the better game anyway, it was only logical for me to play later in the rotation because my game holds up better under pressure.

I see this just as a one man scramble, so I play the easier shot first with the least pressure.  Then if that goes well, the driver shot has no pressure at all because he's already in good shape.

If we're putting it in one man scramble terminology, hitting driver first is putting your weaker guy up front. The weaker guy has the same level of high risk whether he goes first or second. If he hits fairway, second guy can really go nuts. If he doesn't, second guy gets better by virtue of hitting a safer club.

I think this comes down to how risky you view the safe club to be. I'm just thinking of how I'd feel, since I'm a similar handicap. If I had to 100% put it in play, I'd hit 5W. It's a club that I just never have to think about because it gets the ball up so easily, so I don't have issues that come from overswinging like I do on occasion with driver or 3W. I know I've hit it on tee shots where if I messed up, I'd be in big trouble, and I just never had an issue with it. I'd call that my safe club, and I think I'd be OK hitting it second under pressure. This is obviously total anecdotal evidence, so I just offer it as an illustration more than anything. I just think by going driver first, you'll at least have some holes where you can take two pokes with the driver, as opposed to going driver second, where you might have some holes where you don't hit driver at all. I think the first scenario gives you a better chance to win.

[Big C]

I think a fun exercise might be to discuss the best strategy for the 3 handicap.  I don't think that there are many of us out there that have played "worst" ball before.  Off the top of my head, I'm thinking that he's gotta play realllllly conservative on any holes where there is trouble of any kind.  He's not allowed to try any risky shots.  I don't know that I'd be comfortable ever hitting a driver.

I'm sure the specific strategy would have to depend on the strengths and weaknesses of the individual player, but your overall assessment is correct. If you hit it in the water on your first shot, you may as well take a wedge out and hit your second shot 115 yards down the fairway, because the only alternative is that you will make the situation worse.

I will say that for a player like me (capable of great golf shots, followed by atrocious misses), worst ball is a real mental grind. I remember playing the par 5 4th hole of my course, already sitting at 4 over for the round. I managed to hit two pretty good drives and the worst of the two left me a hair over 250 yards from the green. I took my hybrid out and hit a beautiful soaring draw that landed 20 yards short of the green, for an easy eagle pitch. I was feeling pretty good about myself until I stopped and remember, "Holy $

[David in FL]

I think it's close too. I think you make up a LOT of ground on the greens. Why are you only playing 9 holes though?!

[vangator]

Match play does make a difference since you don't have to worry about blow up holes. I still think I'd hit the conservative shot first, but having two shots at bombing a driver does sound appealing.

[mvmac]

@VegasRenegade , what course are you guys playing?

Off topic, but I'm thinking this would be an interesting experiment at the next SoCal outing. Could we find a spot on the practice putting green where someone was more likely to 3 putt from a much shorter distance (under "worst ball" conditions) than from a much longer distance but friendlier line?

Off the top of my head the practice green at Tukwet Canyon had a hole that from 15-20 ft above the hole was pretty severe. It was one of the holes we used for the putting contest to win the Scotty Cameron putter at the Sand Trap outing. 30 feet from below the hole would have been an easier two putt but it's very rare to have a putt that severe on the course.

[iacas]

I would figure out the best strategy to the hole were I playing it normally, and then just do that twice.  If you're playing two identical hands of blackjack and you have 16 against a dealer 7, you're not better off staying on one and hitting on the other.  There is one correct move and you should do it both times.

That is the best way.

The principles in Lowest Score Wins still apply. Specifically, "The Rule" still applies. The distance gradient still applies. Etc.

Right now, taking what he gets on his first tee shot, the guy shoots 47, let's say. So if he did nothing else but play one ball and waive the right to hit his second ball each time, he'd shoot 47. The first ball is thus the worst it could ever be. If he hits a worse shot with his second ball, well, he plays his first ball. Even if this strategy of playing two balls only applied to the tee shot, you can see how he'd already shoot lower than 47.  The fact that he gets to apply this to EVERY shot will drop his score. He can't shoot higher than 47, and every time his second ball improves his first (let's say half the time, perhaps, though it might even be higher because he'll have just done it), he will shave fractions of a stroke from his score. Every time.

Sounds like fun, but as an 18 HCP I would not take that bet against a 3 HCP.  The pro is playing several tiers above you and the chance of 2 bad shots in a row are very low.

They're not as low as you think, especially if you re-consider what you call a "bad shot." The re-do also forces the guy to replicate (he won't) his GOOD shots, too. He chips it to two feet from a weird lie on the side of the green? Nope, sorry, do it again. He holes a 12-footer? Odds are he won't do that again. Stripes it down the middle? Probably not going to do it again either.

EVERY shot the 3 handicapper hits can only worsen his situation or leave it the same. As soon as he hits a shot, that's as GOOD as it can possibly get, but it can be much worse as well if his second shot isn't BETTER.

I think you're over-estimating how good a 3 handicapper is.

I can just go by my own skill level, but if I hit a bad drive I am about 50/50 hitting a good drive on my next swing.  And no doubt the 3 handicap's lesser of 2 drives will probably be way past your best of 2. Same for the rest of the game.

No, that's not the same for the rest of the game. The closer they get to the green, the bigger the advantage becomes for the 20 handicapper. He gets TWO chances to make a 12-footer (if one goes in, he keeps it), while the 3 handicapper MUST make both for it to count.

Again, let's say the 3 handicapper hits 9 greens a round. It's about right. So that's 4.5 in nine holes. But he's also going to mess up some of his drives and approach shots, too. So that takes him down to 2 or 3 greens over nine holes. Maybe he two-putts those holes. He'll likely bogey almost each of the others. Bam: 42.

Meanwhile the 20 handicapper already hits 2-3 greens per 18 holes. Over 9, that's 1-1.5. But he's playing his own scramble, so he's now up to 2 or 3. Even if he wasn't up to two or three, and we only let him chip and putt in a scramble format… guess what? He's still going to beat the 3 handicapper frequently.

Think about it like this:  Have you ever played in a scramble?  Isn't it a good strategy to let the weaker players play first?

In a scramble you have different guys. In this one, you have the same guy. HIs abilities don't become that of the A player on your scramble team. They stay the same.

Which shot has more pressure: the shot where you have to hit a driver knowing this ball absolutely counts for your score, or the shot where you know you get to hit another ball after it and take the best of the two?

The reason a better player goes last in a scramble is because they are more likely to, if everyone has screwed up, pull off a safe shot OR if everyone did their job and there's already a safe ball, to blast one and gain some extra yardage.

This logic doesn't apply to this. The guy's already going to shoot 47 just playing one ball. Playing a "safe" shot only bumps his average score to a 51 or something. He's better off playing with the proper strategy with BOTH balls. Except of course in the situations where he hits a shot to 20 feet on the green from 150, for example: then he can certainly go at the flag a little on the second one, as others have mentioned.

The equivalent of what you're suggesting is that he try to lay up from 150 yards to just in front of the green, then "go for" the green with his second shot.

I see this just as a one man scramble, so I play the easier shot first with the least pressure.  Then if that goes well, the driver shot has no pressure at all because he's already in good shape.

Your strategy falls flat on its face when he duffs his "safe" hybrid. If he could sufficiently play "safe" and hit the ball well all day, he wouldn't be a 20. He'll mis-hit some of those shots too.

I think a fun exercise might be to discuss the best strategy for the 3 handicap.  I don't think that there are many of us out there that have played "worst" ball before.  Off the top of my head, I'm thinking that he's gotta play realllllly conservative on any holes where there is trouble of any kind.  He's not allowed to try any risky shots.  I don't know that I'd be comfortable ever hitting a driver.

That's somewhat silly. The same strategy applies to him. It's a BIT less. You might consider a bit of the "outliers" in your Shot Zone (though as a 3 his should be minimal). The 3 handicapper really doesn't get screwed until he gets on the green where the odds simply shrink. Even if he holes a 6-footer that he holes 60% of the time, the odds of holing two are about 40% (60% * 60%, plus a bump because he will have just hit it).

I agree that the 3 should play a LITTLE safer, but he's putting himself in a bad spot to play too safe because of the distance he'll leave himself from the hole laying up too much. Would you rather play a driver that went into the rough (say 150 yards out) or a hybrid from the fairway (say 190 out) knowing that you then had to play your worst of the two shots from 150 rough/190 fairway?

Obviously "tricky" means different things to different people, but what I am referring to is that 12 foot putt where you stand over the ball thinking "there's a one in 10 chance that I make this, but if I don't hit the hole, this ball is running 8 feet past." If you have to make that same putt twice, the odds of doing it are now one in 100, and the downside is still the same.

I didn't know this match was being conducted at Oakmont with the most difficult pins set on every green…

That was sarcasm, btw: the situation you're talking about almost never occurs. C'mon, it should dawn on you when you say something like a 12-foot putt that you either make or rolls eight feet past. When's the last time you had anything like that?

Like I said, even from 27 versus 30 feet I'm probably giving the guy the 30 footer. Distance is far and away the single most important determinant of putting. And everything else. Pick up a copy of LSW. Or don't, so that my team can beat you in the Newport Cup. :)

If we're putting it in one man scramble terminology, hitting driver first is putting your weaker guy up front.

No it isn't. It's putting the same guy up front. There's no A B C and D player. There's just a C player, and you're just handicapping him by having him "play safe."

I think it's close too. I think you make up a LOT of ground on the greens.

I think the 20 loses some ground on the full swing, and makes it up on the short game where the odds become lower and the separation value narrows considerably.

---

I'll put a cap on it by putting it this way: many think the 20 handicapper should be less aggressive and play more conservatively. The opposite is true. To maximize his returns and minimize his score, he should - on average - be MORE aggressive.

Again, consider that he shoots 47 every time he plays nine holes with just one ball.

Every time he hits an acceptable shot (hits the green from 110, finds the fairway with decent distance off the tee), chips it to five feet from off the green, etc. he should then be MORE aggressive with his "free" second ball. If he flubs a shot, well, that shot is one he'd have hit on his way to 47, so he can only improve on that shot (or accept it and fail to make up any ground if his second shot is even worse ).

Playing safe is the bad play. The strategy stays the same, and the player can only ever improve or keep the same shot as he would on his way to 47. He should improve his result about 50% of the time (or slightly more).

Hitting hybrid first he might "improve" his shot 70% of the time (because it's a driver, after all, that he hits second), but that 70% of the time still only puts him equal with the first 50% in the "driver all the time" strategy, and the other 30% of the time he's worse off . Even if we make that 90% of the time… it's still a failing strategy.

[mchepp]

This is a great idea @VegasRenegade . Thank you for sharing your game with us.

I feel that the course came make an enormous difference. How much water, OB, places either of you can lose balls. If he hits one in the water/OB/hazard and loses a ball you are golden it is essentially a loss of hole if you can not lose a ball on that hole.Also how long the course is can play a role also. More length benefits him because distance is going to be one of his advantages likely.

[iacas]

I feel that the course came make an enormous difference. How much water, OB, places either of you can lose balls. If he hits one in the water/OB/hazard and loses a ball you are golden it is essentially a loss of hole if you can not lose a ball on that hole.Also how long the course is can play a role also. More length benefits him because distance is going to be one of his advantages likely.

I think the course matters less than you might think.

It'll slightly widen the gap on the full swing shots, but it'll also widen the gap on the short game shots where the 20 has the distinct advantage.

---

Here's another way to think about this.

The 20 handicapper averages let's say 48 on nine holes. The second ball gives him 48 chances to LOWER that score (and it compounds with each subsequent shot on a hole: if he hits a shot to 40 feet and the second one to 30, he now gets TWO attempts at the SHORTER putt).

The 3 handicapper averages, oh, let's say 38.5 for nine holes. The second ball gives him 39 chances to RAISE his score (and it also compounds itself, and more quickly: he'll hit a worse shot that leaves him in a worse position, which makes the worst of the next two shots that much worse off).

In both cases, they're fractions of strokes, but they'll add up quickly, particularly around the greens where the fractions approach whole strokes lost or gained.

[Gunther]

That was sarcasm, btw: the situation you're talking about almost never occurs. C'mon, it should dawn on you when you say something like a 12-foot putt that you either make or rolls eight feet past. When's the last time you had anything like that?

My last 2 rounds on 2 different courses, multiple holes on each course. Not sure you've played dormant Bermuda greens in TX in winter. Don't disagree with your points but this is a highly probable situation in my neck of the woods.

[Pretzel]

My last 2 rounds on 2 different courses, multiple holes on each course. Not sure you've played dormant Bermuda greens in TX in winter. Don't disagree with your points but this is a highly probable situation in my neck of the woods.

I've played worse: Greens with a sheet of smooth ice covering them. It still doesn't happen unless you're on some absolutely crazy slope, which is not a common feature for good reason.

[Gunther]

I've played worse: Greens with a sheet of smooth ice covering them. It still doesn't happen unless you're on some absolutely crazy slope, which is not a common feature for good reason.

One would think. Our greenskeepers here don't quite get the idea that it's winter and non-tournament conditions apply. They were mentioned numerous times with some f-bombs attached by myself and my buds over the past two rounds. Brutal pin positions. I 4-putted once in each of the past 2 rounds without really making a "bad" putt.

[Pretzel]

One would think. Our greenskeepers here don't quite get the idea that it's winter and non-tournament conditions apply. They were mentioned numerous times with some f-bombs attached by myself and my buds over the past two rounds. Brutal pin positions. I 4-putted once in each of the past 2 rounds without really making a "bad" putt.

Then I would imagine you need to work on putting unless your green has severe slopes like I mentioned. Also, Texas has a winter season? ☺

[Lihu]

We have sloping greens that dry out just a little more than usual. If you miss a pin on that slope you're left with another 8 foot putt or more wherever the ball decides to roll. . .

[Gunther]

Then I would imagine you need to work on putting unless your green has severe slopes like I mentioned. Also, Texas has a winter season? ☺

Definitely some severe but you'd be surprised how little slope it takes to run a ball 15 feet away on these dormant Bermuda greens. I had about a 6-footer with maybe 4" left to right. Missed on the high side, it sling-shotted around the hole and ended up about 15 feet away. The slope didn't appear that severe. Just some goofy greens and pins of late. Kinda fun though, helluva challenge.