How would a scramble team fare in the US Open?

[Jeremie Boop]

Clubhead speed for 6-8 handicap is 95-105 mph. So your looking at 230 to 250 yards.

That's carry right? Perhaps that's where I keep getting confused, when I see averages I always think it means total not just carry.

[saevel25]

That's carry right? Perhaps that's where I keep getting confused, when I see averages I always think it means total not just carry.

Yep that is carry.

If you got 4 guys who can optimize their club head speed. Average is 100 mph. That is 147 ball speed on a good strike. With 16 degrees of launch in the low 2000 rpm spin range, you'd get about 245 yards of carry. If that course runs hard and fast then they might get 270+ on some drives.

[Big C]

I've played in a half dozen scrambles over the past year. Usually I am the best player (sad, I know), and there is often a "minimum drives" provision. Meaning even your crappiest player has to put 2-3 usable drives out there. Our scores in these events have ranged from 5 under to 10 under at courses rated 69-71. Take 4 guys who are slightly better than me and I have a very hard time believing they would not seriously contend in, and likely win any professional event. The wild card of course is that most amateurs have no idea how difficult the set up is, especially for the open. I can't really account for that, other than to say that I think the scramble group would put up enough birdies to offset the handful of holes where the gnarly rough or ridiculously firm greens cost them a stroke.

[Golfingdad]

I've played in a half dozen scrambles over the past year. Usually I am the best player (sad, I know), and there is often a "minimum drives" provision. Meaning even your crappiest player has to put 2-3 usable drives out there. Our scores in these events have ranged from 5 under to 10 under at courses rated 69-71.

Take 4 guys who are slightly better than me and I have a very hard time believing they would not seriously contend in, and likely win any professional event.

The wild card of course is that most amateurs have no idea how difficult the set up is, especially for the open. I can't really account for that, other than to say that I think the scramble group would put up enough birdies to offset the handful of holes where the gnarly rough or ridiculously firm greens cost them a stroke.

When I voted, I pictured our usual group (myself, Andrew, Pak and Jason) but Jason is now too good, so if we substituted you in for Jason, we'd fairly closely fit the 6-8 handicap requirement.  I feel like it would be pretty rare for one of us not to be in the fairway out close to 290 or 300 (considering the firmness of these fairways and the roll we'll be getting) on most of the holes.  We'll be a little below that when using Pak's drives and a little above that when using Andrew's.

Even on the 540 yard par 4's, there's no reason to think that we wouldn't get an nGIR several times, or, as @iacas mentioned above, if the first couple of guys missed wildly, even if we had to bunt a hybrid or long iron out there to stay out of the rough, we still should have no trouble making a bogey playing it as a par 5, and maybe even getting up and down for par.

I think the fact that we get 4 chances at EVERY putt more than makes up for those bogies and our lack of length relative to the field.

Now, that said ....

What I didn't factor in, and what I feel would likely be the real wild card, is not the course or the competition, but rather all of the pomp & circumstance.  None of us have ever played in ANY tournament with a crowd, and certainly not one with crowds the size of a US Open, nor have we ever played in front of TV cameras.  If we have to consider that in our vote, then I'm liable to believe that we all pee our pants on the first tee and then have to WD in shame.

[Strandly]

I voted make the cut but not in contention but I probably should have voted top 10.  I still don't think they would win.

[dsc123]

I voted top 10, but the more I think about it the more I think they'd win.  I just have a hard time seeing the group do worse than par on any hole.  They'd never have to play a bad shot, and they'd never 3 putt.  I suppose on a long par 4 they might have to play a nGIR, but the odds of getting up and down are so good that it likely wouldn't hurt them.  Its like the worst they could do would be +2 or 3.

On the other hand, they'll almost always capitalize on a good shot.  If someone chips/pitches it to 6 feet its basically a gimmie.  A PGA Tour player misses two out of three from 10 feet, but these guys would make the vast majority of those putts.  There would be very few missed opportunities.

[No Mulligans]

They'd be two over on a course with a slope of 135.  Maybe 135 slope is too low given a US open set up.  They'd miss the cut.

[Kenny Lee]

The scramble team would be at a disadvantage off the tee, no doubt. But would likely be in the fairway.

And they would be at a disadvantage on the longer approach shots. Amateurs can't hit long irons high and with a lot of spin.

But, they will be at least near the green, at worst, right?

Then, the scramble team will have a HUGE ADVANTAGE getting 4 chips AND 4 putts.

They'll make lots of pars, but will also make birdies too. Perhaps a few bogeys, but not many.

I voted Top 10, but I think they'd have a decent shot of winning IF they can handle the pressure, and that's a BIG IF!

[Golfingdad]

They's be two over on a course with a slope of 135.  They'd miss the cut.

No way that is even CLOSE to correct.  The last scramble I played in involved me and 3 co-workers.  With no exaggeration, one of them plays once a year roughly, and the other two don't play ... AT ALL.

We went around on the white tees at my home course in one over par.  Slope there was 125.

My friends and I, mentioned above - we fit the criteria, play that course from the tips (slope 136) and we'll shoot equal or better than +2 just using the best score on each hole while playing our own ball.  We would annihilate that course in a scramble.

EDIT:  That calculator may be figuring out how to even the playing field for a scramble, but it's certainly no indication of the scores that'll be shot.

[rkim291968]

They's be two over on a course with a slope of 135.  They'd miss the cut.

If I am not mistaken, US Open course slope would be made to be higher than 135.   Fairways narrower, roughs deeper, greens faster, yardage quite longer,  jammed packed with crowd, ..., and it is very iffy for them to make the cut.    Now, if one 6-8 handicapper is given the chance to hit 4 times, I think he will fare better than 4 6-8 handicappers playing scramble.  We can all hit our 2nd shot  better .

[Wally Fairway]

Okay, let's look at the holes

Hole, Par, yardage, comment

1- 4/5 - 598/496, they don't hit it in 2 as a par 5 and probably don't hit it in 2 as a par 4

2 - 4 - 399, they should be able to get on the green

3 - 3 - 163-198, they will get on the green

4 - 4 - 495, pretty open hole, maybe they get one close to the green

5 - 4 - 488, open runup to the green (except for a pot bunker) maybe the hit it

6 - 4 - 498, not hitting the green

7 - 4 - 508, not hitting the green

8 - 5 -614, not getting on in 2, should have a birdie putt

9 - 3 - 217/224, not getting close

10 - 4 - 436/468, should get on...close, maybe/maybe not

11 - 4 - 500/537, better hit wedges close to make par on this one

12 - 4 -281/311, should get on the green, maybe a crack at a birdie - tough green complex

13 - 4 - 534, again get those wedges out to get up & down

14 - 4 -521/546, good luck - I've got them down for bogie here

15 - 3 - 123-246, should be able to get on the green...but it is a big green

16 - 4 - 423, a breather from 500 yard par 4's, getting a birdie opportunity here

17 - 3 - 172-218, should be putting for birdie here...but from how far away?

18 - 5/4 - 604/525, putting for five so either a par or bogey here.

I think it is asking a lot for a group of 6-8 handicappers to not only play only from the short grass, but having to control approach shots into very undulated complex greens....I'm thinking not that many putt opportunities from inside 12-15 feet.

Maybe make the cut, but not contending.

[Natural Patrick]

Clubhead speed for 6-8 handicap is 95-105 mph. So your looking at 230 to 250 yards.

Although you can put me in the 245 category. I don't buy into to the thought that you can determine club head speed from a handicap.

[rkim291968]

Okay, let's look at the holes

Hole, Par, yardage, comment

1- 4/5 - 598/496, they don't hit it in 2 as a par 5 and probably don't hit it in 2 as a par 4

2 - 4 - 399, they should be able to get on the green

3 - 3 - 163-198, they will get on the green

4 - 4 - 495, pretty open hole, maybe they get one close to the green

5 - 4 - 488, open runup to the green (except for a pot bunker) maybe the hit it

6 - 4 - 498, not hitting the green

7 - 4 - 508, not hitting the green

8 - 5 -614, not getting on in 2, should have a birdie putt

9 - 3 - 217/224, not getting close

10 - 4 - 436/468, should get on...close, maybe/maybe not

11 - 4 - 500/537, better hit wedges close to make par on this one

12 - 4 -281/311, should get on the green, maybe a crack at a birdie - tough green complex

13 - 4 - 534, again get those wedges out to get up & down

14 - 4 -521/546, good luck - I've got them down for bogie here

15 - 3 - 123-246, should be able to get on the green...but it is a big green

16 - 4 - 423, a breather from 500 yard par 4's, getting a birdie opportunity here

17 - 3 - 172-218, should be putting for birdie here...but from how far away?

18 - 5/4 - 604/525, putting for five so either a par or bogey here.

I think it is asking a lot for a group of 6-8 handicappers to not only play only from the short grass, but having to control approach shots into very undulated complex greens....I'm thinking not that many putt opportunities from inside 12-15 feet.

Maybe make the cut, but not contending.

Reading the above, I am more convinced that a typical 6-8 handicap group won't likely make the cut unless one picks the litter rather strategically (1 long hitter, one good putter, one short game wiz, etc).   There is no guarantee that one of the 4 golfers will hit a good 270 yard tee shot on #7.   Even if that happens, the group will have 238 yard approach shot left.   Surround them by thousands of spectators watching their every shot, they are likely to make more mistakes than their usual.  It looks doable in theory but will likely be much harder than it looks.

[DeadMan]

It seems strange that the average drive for 6-8 handicappers would be lower than 260-270.Though I admit, I don't have much experience playing with people who are of that handicap so I don't have an accurate way to gauge what they'd hit. The only person I've played with in that range is Matt, who probably has 10-20 yards on me every hole that I've played with him and I fall into the 270 ish average drive. Seems to me, though, that if someone were to put together a four person team of that range to compete they'd try to have a mix of long hitters and good short game players.

Odds are that you don't actually average a 270 yard drive (not saying it's impossible, just unlikely). There's a chart that's floating around here that has the correlation between average driver distance and handicap. I couldn't find it easily, but you don't get into the 270 average range unless you're a scratch golfer.

Note that even a 270 yard drive would big them at a big disadvantage in driving distance compare to the rest of the PGA tour (see - http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.101.html - it would put them in the bottom 5 for length in the PGA tour). You're taking a couple of 200+ yard approach shots in to the par 4s, which my wild-ass guess is probably a 50/50 shot of 1 of 4 players getting on the green.

Although you can put me in the 245 category. I don't buy into to the thought that you can determine club head speed from a handicap.

Those are averages.

[Golfingdad]

The 4 categories all have several votes, and it's safe to say at this point that @Kenny Lee came up with a great question!

Now I root for them to figure out a way to make this happen.  They should do it like they did the "Can a 10 capper break 100?" contests they did a few years ago and just pick 4 guys and have them play 18 holes the week prior.  At least we could get a sense as to what they'd shoot (in one round) with the cameras on, even if there is no crowd yet, and it's not "real."

I know of at least a couple of people ( @JetFan1983 how you doin?? ;)) that would watch that.

[Jeremie Boop]

Odds are that you don't actually average a 270 yard drive (not saying it's impossible, just unlikely). There's a chart that's floating around here that has the correlation between average driver distance and handicap. I couldn't find it easily, but you don't get into the 270 average range unless you're a scratch golfer.

Note that even a 270 yard drive would big them at a big disadvantage in driving distance compare to the rest of the PGA tour (see - http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.101.html - it would put them in the bottom 5 for length in the PGA tour). You're taking a couple of 200+ yard approach shots in to the par 4s, which my wild-ass guess is probably a 50/50 shot of 1 of 4 players getting on the green.

Those are averages.

It's ok, you aren't the first to think that and I'm sure you won't be the last. I'm definitely not the typical 22 HC when it comes to swing speed/length. I do agree that even a 270 average would be well short of what pros it, but that would be good enough for 4 players to have a good shot at getting close in 2 on most of those longer par 4's and even the longest par 5 should be reachable in 3. The main problems I see are the super long par 4's and when the par 3's play extra long. Even those, however, would have a really good chance of up and downs with 4 attempts on both the pitch/chip shots and putts.

[DeadMan]

It's ok, you aren't the first to think that and I'm sure you won't be the last. I'm definitely not the typical 22 HC when it comes to swing speed/length. I do agree that even a 270 average would be well short of what pros it, but that would be good enough for 4 players to have a good shot at getting close in 2 on most of those longer par 4's and even the longest par 5 should be reachable in 3. The main problems I see are the super long par 4's and when the par 3's play extra long. Even those, however, would have a really good chance of up and downs with 4 attempts on both the pitch/chip shots and putts.

Well, then, you're the outlier. But we're still saying the same thing. Look at the yardages that Wally Fairway posted. If you hit a 270 yard drive on a 498 par 4, you're still talking a 228 yard approach shot. The median PGA Tour player hits it 53'4" from 225-250 yards. I think the odds are that 4 6-8 handicappers will miss the green quite frequently from that distance. Then we're talking about scrambling with some really undulating, fast greens. They'll make quite a few bogeys.

On a shorter course, they could win it. On a longer course, they might be in contention, but there's no way they win it.

[Jeremie Boop]

Well, then, you're the outlier. But we're still saying the same thing. Look at the yardages that Wally Fairway posted. If you hit a 270 yard drive on a 498 par 4, you're still talking a 228 yard approach shot. The median PGA Tour player hits it 53'4" from 225-250 yards. I think the odds are that 4 6-8 handicappers will miss the green quite frequently from that distance. Then we're talking about scrambling with some really undulating, fast greens. They'll make quite a few bogeys.

On a shorter course, they could win it. On a longer course, they might be in contention, but there's no way they win it.

I don't necessarily think they'd win. I think they could break top 10 depending on the makeup of the team though.