How would a scramble team fare in the US Open?

[DeadMan]

I don't necessarily think they'd win. I think they could break top 10 depending on the makeup of the team though.

Yeah, I'm just assuming 4 average 6-8 handicappers. I suppose if you get 4 long 6-8 handicappers, your chances might increase. But then the 6-8 handicappers would have problems in other areas that lead to their 6-8 caps (which I'd imagine you could attest to).

[No Mulligans]

It's been said and tested that an a 10 handicapper wouldn't be able to break 100 on a U.S. open set up.

What is an average score for a 10 handicapper on an average course?  About 85?  Add about 15 to that to get to 100 or adjust handicap by 15.

So adjusted to US open, that 10 handicapper is adjusted to a 25.  A 7 handicapper is about a 22 equivalent.  So would four 22 handicappers playing a scramble be able to break par on a 72/113 course?  I don't think so.

And it follows that four 7 handicappers playing a scramble wouldn't be able to break par on a U.S. open course.

[Jeremie Boop]

Yeah, I'm just assuming 4 average 6-8 handicappers. I suppose if you get 4 long 6-8 handicappers, your chances might increase. But then the 6-8 handicappers would have problems in other areas that lead to their 6-8 caps (which I'd imagine you could attest to).

It's been said and tested that an a 10 handicapper wouldn't be able to break 100 on a U.S. open set up.

What is an average score for a 10 handicapper on an average course?  About 85?  Add about 15 to that to get to 100 or adjust handicap by 15.

So adjusted to US open, that 10 handicapper is adjusted to a 25.  A 7 handicapper is about a 22 equivalent.  So would four 22 handicappers playing a scramble be able to break par on a 72/113 course?  I don't think so.

And it follows that four 7 handicappers playing a scramble wouldn't be able to break par on a U.S. open course.

I just don't see all 4 of the 7 HC players screwing up their shots. I would expect at least one of them to hit a decent shot at minimum. And I would also think if someone was given the opportunity to put together a team for a scramble like this they'd take the time to try and cover the important bases of at least one person that's super good at short game and one person that's extra long from the tee with the other 2 being very steady players. Now, if they just threw 4 random people of this handicap range together then I can see there being more trouble.

[Golfingdad]

It's been said and tested that an a 10 handicapper wouldn't be able to break 100 on a U.S. open set up.

What is an average score for a 10 handicapper on an average course?  About 85?  Add about 15 to that to get to 100 or adjust handicap by 15.

So adjusted to US open, that 10 handicapper is adjusted to a 25.  A 7 handicapper is about a 22 equivalent.  So would four 22 handicappers playing a scramble be able to break par on a 72/113 course?  I don't think so.

And it follows that four 7 handicappers playing a scramble wouldn't be able to break par on a U.S. open course.

You're failing to properly consider how enormous an advantage it is to get 4 cracks at EVERYTHING versus having to play from every bad shot.

Also, we haven't suggested that they necessarily would break par on a US Open course.  Some of think they could win, but that winning number could very well be at or even slightly above par.

[JetFan1983]

The 4 categories all have several votes, and it's safe to say at this point that @Kenny Lee came up with a great question!

Now I root for them to figure out a way to make this happen.  They should do it like they did the "Can a 10 capper break 100?" contests they did a few years ago and just pick 4 guys and have them play 18 holes the week prior.  At least we could get a sense as to what they'd shoot (in one round) with the cameras on, even if there is no crowd yet, and it's not "real."

I know of at least a couple of people (@JetFan1983 how you doin?? ;)) that would watch that.

Yea, I love this question too. I voted that they would win. Like @Golfingdad said, they wouldn't hit any OB, no hazard balls, and wouldn't miss any putts inside five feet. Three of the four get the read on every green. There'd be some long approach shots, but with four attempts, one of them is bound to hit a decent one to at least put everyone in a position to get up and down. I dunno, I really like their chances. I'd love to see them try.

[saevel25]

So adjusted to US open, that 10 handicapper is adjusted to a 25.  A 7 handicapper is about a 22 equivalent.  So would four 22 handicappers playing a scramble be able to break par on a 72/113 course?  I don't think so.

And it follows that four 7 handicappers playing a scramble wouldn't be able to break par on a U.S. open course.

USGA calculator puts a 6 handicap on a 155 slope at an 8 index. Typically ratings will be in the 78 range. So they would be a 16 handicap or so.

You have to look at their actual playing ability. If they all average 50% FIR. Then as a group they only have a 6.25% chance of missing a fairway for the hole.

You can say, they can carry a drive of 235 yards, probably running out to 250-260 yards. On the long par 4's they would play them as a par 5. Even still, lets say they get to 30 yards out on a long par 4. Lets say each player is 40% at getting up and down from there. As a group they would succeed at getting up and down 87% of the time, that is top level PGA Tour scrambling.

Scrambles give them a huge advantage.

[rkim291968]

I just don't see all 4 of the 7 HC players screwing up their shots.

They can and they will, much more so in US Open setting.   Just look at PGA tour event. You may see all 3 in a group miss their tee shots, miss makeable putts, etc..   It's rare but happens.   That will happen much more with a group of 6 - 8 handicappers.   I played tournaments/casual rounds with players in 6 - 8 handicap before.   They make their share of mistakes.   The chance of all four 6 - 8 handicappers missing a 210 yard iron/hybrid shot to green ... very high in US Open setting, IMO.

[Aguirre]

They'd make the cut, I'm sure of that.  I play in a scramble every year where the four of us are basically 6-8 handicappers, with the exception of me as I've been floating between 8-11 for several years.  And I'm quite confident that group would make the cut.

The US Open rough isn't the factor for a scramble team that it is for a pro.  You're placing the ball.  I'm a master of giving myself a perfect lie during the scramble in the rough.  I'll even place my teammates balls at times.  When it's high, it does pose a bit of a problem, because if you basically tee it up too high, and get underneath the ball quite easily.  But that's on full shots.  Around the green, no problem.

Also, around the green, when four players miss, you can pick the easiest attempt at getting up and down.  When a pro is playing his own ball, some of his misses are going to be short sided, in a monster bunker, etc.  It's unlikely that all four scramble players miss short side, or end up in a bunker.

Now if you want to factor in crowds, TV cameras, and pressure unlike something they've ever faced before, I think that makes the task significantly harder.

[Aguirre]

The chance of all four 6 - 8 handicappers missing a 210 yard iron/hybrid shot to green ... very high in US Open setting, IMO.

Without a doubt.  However, when the four man scramble team can pick the best miss, they will absolutely average less shots to get up and down than the average pro from that same spot.  A pro would probably be better from a difficult position on the average, but the scramble group will rarely have to play from there.

[rkim291968]

Now if you want to factor in crowds, TV cameras, and pressure unlike something they've ever faced before, I think that makes the task significantly harder.

You have to factor it in.   IMO, the key words in this thread's subject line is "in the US Open."   The scramblers may fare better on 2nd day and can possibly make a run for making the cut.   On 1st day, I think they will struggle and won't play to their handicap.

[Wally Fairway]

The more I think about it the more I'd change my vote from make the cut to miss the cut.

I think the biggest challenge will be putting on the large, undulating greens that are stimped at US Open speeds. I was able to play Oakland Hills South several years ago, and by pure luck it was the same day as a pretty big charity event. The "spiff" for the charity event is that they put the pins in the same place as the 2004 Ryder Cup; and it was difficult to even get close to some of the holes with a first putt (and that was not with the greens at Open speeds).

I really think the this scramble group will miss at least a couple of side hill sliders or breakers that look like someone should make them at 10 feet or closer.

[saevel25]

I think the biggest challenge will be putting on the large, undulating greens that are stimped at US Open speeds. I was able to play Oakland Hills South several years ago, and by pure luck it was the same day as a pretty big charity event.

You'd get use to the greens. Especially if they spend any time on the practice green. With how detail oriented the USGA his, they have those practice greens at the actual green speeds.

[Jeremie Boop]

You'd get use to the greens. Especially if they spend any time on the practice green. With how detail oriented the USGA his, they have those practice greens at the actual green speeds.

Plus with 4 chances at each putt they'd have increasingly better odds of making putts due to knowing the speed and line by the 4th putt.

[rkim291968]

Quote:

Originally Posted by saevel25

You'd get use to the greens. Especially if they spend any time on the practice green. With how detail oriented the USGA his, they have those practice greens at the actual green speeds.

Plus with 4 chances at each putt they'd have increasingly better odds of making putts due to knowing the speed and line by the 4th putt.

For short straight putts, putting 4 times by different player from same spot is a huge advantage.  But then again, pros will knock those in as well as our hypothetical scrambling team.   For longer tricky putts, I am not so sure.   From the rounds I've played, I've seen too many same line putts being missed, often to the same spot.   As I mentioned earlier, if the same golfer is putting 4 straight times, that's an advantage.  If 4 different golfers are putting a tricky putt on a lightening fast green, to each his own.

Practicing putting on US Open green condition before the round will not translate into doing well on the green for most.

[GolfLug]

I mistakenly voted win. Don't know how to undo. I think top 10 at best.

A US open winner plays ungodly golf that week. A major (pun intended) issue is they would need 40-45 good drives at 280-290+ that week to win. Sorry, I just don't see it. If the requisite distance were 260+ yard drives then ok.

OTOH, 15 feet putts and within would be almost automatic to keep them in the hunt.

[Golfingdad]

I mistakenly voted win. Don't know how to undo. I think top 10 at best.

A US open winner plays ungodly golf that week. A major (pun intended) issue is they would need 40-45 good drives at 280-290+ that week to win. Sorry, I just don't see it. If the requisite distance were 260+ yard drives then ok.

OTOH, 15 feet putts and within would be almost automatic to keep them in the hunt.

I think you're just stuck with your vote.  No big whoop though.

But, yeah, if somebody decided to pull a Martin Kaymer '14, Rory '11, or especially a Tiger '00 ... then, yeah, it's a safe bet that our little scramble team would be out of the running.

But often times, it's just a survival of the fittest, war of attrition, and when you get 4 tries to avoid all of the pitfalls that the single entrants will all have to recover from, then you have a crazy large advantage.

I also recognize that there are very different types of 6 handicaps out there.  I'm speaking on behalf of myself, and @saevel25 is doing the same.  I believe that we are both the "right" kind of 6 handicaps for something like this.  The kind who are very capable of hitting it 290 (me) or more (Matt) off the tee but lose strokes with wildness.  If this team is made up of short and straight hitting 6 handicappers who rarely who are more consistent, then I think that they will have a harder time of it as a team.

[rkim291968]

If I were to pick a team, I will pick a long drive specialist, accurate drive specialist (in case long drive goes into water), short game wiz, and a putting expert.   This team can make the cut and possibly do even better.

[SavvySwede]

Originally Posted by rkim291968

If I were to pick a team, I will pick a long drive specialist, accurate drive specialist (in case long drive goes into water), short game wiz, and a putting expert.   This team can make the cut and possibly do even better.

I don't think that sort of team would have a chance. You can't rely on just one long hitter because every par 4 and 5 on a US Open needs a big shot. 230-240 in the fairway doesn't help the team out if they still need 240+ to the green leaving the long hitter as the only chance at a GIR or nGIR. Plus you need everyone to produce at their specialty. One guy having a bad day puts a huge hole in the skill set. Perhaps your team would do alright at the rare short venue like Merion in 2013 but definitely no shot at Chambers Bay