Donald Trump for president?

[Braivo]

1 minute ago, saevel25 said:

Why would you ever think this is anything typical like those situations. You are taking a complete outlier year and assuming it will work the same. 

How is this an outlier? 

He is leading handily in every major poll nationwide and within most states. 

[acerimusdux]

9 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Why would you ever think this is anything typical like those situations. You are taking a complete outlier year and assuming it will work the same. 

What makes it an outlier?

Trump at this point looks like a good bet to win the nomination. He might have to cut a deal at the convention to do so, but they won't really be able to deny him. If the establishment is dead against him, he could always cut a deal with Cruz. But he wants to win the general. So his best bet will likely be Rubio. 

So I'm calling it now, it's a Trump/Rubio ticket.

We'll know more after March 15, but it's hard to see what would swing the polls dramatically in the next month.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by acerimusdux

[saevel25]

1 minute ago, Braivo said:

How is this an outlier? 

He is leading handily in every major poll nationwide and within most states. 

He's Donald Trump! He's leading the polls, yet he has no republican establishment support. 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

As told by Fivethirtyeight. Since 1980 the primaries have been won by those who have the most establishment endorsements. Trump isn't even on the list and he's leading the polls. 

He's an outlier a wild card. He's not a typical situation that can be correlated to previous expectations. He could either carry this towards the GOP nomination or he might just nose dive. 

You can not predict what is going to happen with Trump based on statistics based around establishment only data. 

 

[Braivo]

1 minute ago, saevel25 said:

He's Donald Trump! He's leading the polls, yet he has no republican establishment support. 

And this, right there, is why he will win. The average voter is finished with the establishment and wants it destroyed in any way possible. Trump is the wrecking ball. 

The establishment has been controlling the narrative for far too long, and folks like myself are done with it. We may not agree with everything Trump says, but he is the one and only hope to unseat the establishment as the controlling powers of our nation. 

[iacas]

4 minutes ago, Braivo said:

And this, right there, is why he will win. The average voter is finished with the establishment and wants it destroyed in any way possible. Trump is the wrecking ball. 

The establishment has been controlling the narrative for far too long, and folks like myself are done with it. We may not agree with everything Trump says, but he is the one and only hope to unseat the establishment as the controlling powers of our nation. 

Does this thread finally have the first vocal Trump supporter?

Because, to this point (having only skimmed; I could be wrong) it's basically been a bunch of Democrats making fun of Trump.

[Braivo]

11 minutes ago, iacas said:

Does this thread finally have the first vocal Trump supporter?

Yes, can confirm. I shall enjoy an honest debate.

[acerimusdux]

15 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

He's leading the polls, yet he has no republican establishment support. 

That's a good point, but I'm not sure how much it matters. Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans don't really have "superdelegates". There are a small number of appointed delegates, something like 3 per state, but they are supposed to be bound by the results of the primaries. The establishment really doesn't have that much say.

Plus, if the main alternative is Cruz, some portion of the establishment is going to quickly make their peace with Trump. And Trump is certainly a guy who will cut a deal with the establishment, once it is in his interest to do so. Once everyone realizes this is their best chance to beat Hillary, I think you will see the Republicans uniting behind Trump.

The Democrats are another matter; even if Bernie managed to win half the elected delegates, the Democratic establishment would likely hand Hillary an easy win at the convention.

[saevel25]

 

3 minutes ago, acerimusdux said:

Plus, if the main alternative is Cruz, some portion of the establishment is going to quickly make their peace with Trump. And Trump is certainly a guy who will cut a deal with the establishment, once it is in his interest to do so. Once everyone realizes this is their best chance to beat Hillary, I think you will see the Republicans uniting behind Trump.

As of right now. Trump is the weakest versus the Democrats in the General Election Polling. I honestly think Trump gets smashed. Unless you get someone like Bloomberg who decides to run as an independent. 

[boogielicious]

29 minutes ago, iacas said:

Does this thread finally have the first vocal Trump supporter?

Because, to this point (having only skimmed; I could be wrong) it's basically been a bunch of Democrats making fun of Trump.

There have been actually quite a few good conservative posters commenting as well. But almost all agree that they don't particularly like Donald Trump. We've had a few troll posters, but not as many as you would think in a political thread.

[Braivo]

15 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

There have been actually quite a few good conservative posters commenting as well. But almost all agree that they don't particularly like Donald Trump. We've had a few troll posters, but not as many as you would think in a political thread.

Just to clarify, I consider myself a committed Trump supporter, I like him. I am not a conservative in the traditional sense. Like anyone, I don't agree with every position that my candidate stands for, I do, however, agree on his main points re: immigration. 

[mcanadiens]

30 minutes ago, acerimusdux said:

Democratic establishment would likely hand Hillary an easy win at the convention.

I heard something on the radio along the lines of New Hampshire having "super delegates" that will vote for Clinton regardless of yesterday's vote. 

As far as Trump goes, my bottom line  is that he simply is not electable. Moderates, women and minorities aren't going to vote for that guy.  

 

[Ernest Jones]

I am actually starting to think that IF it has to be a Republican (shudder...), then Trump is probably the "best" choice out of the guys who stand a chance. I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but when you look at Ted Cruz, who makes Trump look like a renaissance man, and Rubio, who seemingly has nothing but farts in his head. I dunno, the GOP is kind of like an overloaded clown car at the moment. Ted Cruz still thinks that people choose to be gay FFS! 

And if The Donald is the best choice out of the GOP, then I'm praying y'all vote Democrat. 

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

 

As of right now. Trump is the weakest versus the Democrats in the General Election Polling. I honestly think Trump gets smashed. Unless you get someone like Bloomberg who decides to run as an independent. 

Funny thing is that I think if there was only one other Republican candidate - regardless of who, go ahead and pick - he gets smashed there too.  He has the worst "unfavorable" rating of anybody.  The plethora of other choices will continue to help his cause but he'll likely be the most negatively affected each time somebody else drops out.

[newtogolf]

Looks like Fiorina and Christie will drop out before the end of the week as I expected.  I think Trump gets Fiorina's votes and Christie's votes will be split up between Jeb, Rubio and Kasich.  The Carson campaign is on life support so I expect he will be the next major candidate to drop out.  Jeb is hoping that his 4th place finish in NH is proof his campaign is gaining some traction but I can't imagine anyone wanting another Bush in the White House.

The problem for Trump going forward is that the only new votes he'll gain are from Carson voters when he suspends his campaign.  As the other candidates drop out their votes will likely go to the remaining establishment candidates.

[saevel25]

3 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

The problem for Trump going forward is that the only new votes he'll gain are from Carson voters when he suspends his campaign.  As the other candidates drop out their votes will likely go to the remaining establishment candidates.

Yep. 

there was a question asking about voting for non-establishment candidate. 50% of GOP voters identified in this category and Trump got 61% of those votes. He only got 6% of the other. That is not a good number for him when things start to consolidate. Especially if it is Cruz. He had the highest % of voters from that Non-Establishment side. 

[newtogolf]

3 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Yep.

there was a question asking about voting for non-establishment candidate. 50% of GOP voters identified in this category and Trump got 61% of those votes. He only got 6% of the other. That is not a good number for him when things start to consolidate. Especially if it is Cruz. He had the highest % of voters from that Non-Establishment side.

When it comes down to it, Cruz will be get the establishment support before Trump if Rubio or Kasich don't get enough votes to overtake him.  

Kasich spent a lot of time and money in NH so he was expected to do well, Jeb was the big surprise winner and while many were shocked by Rubio's decline, I wasn't given his voting record (or lack thereof) is catching up with him and his poor performance in the last debate. 

[Golfingdad]

59 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

Looks like Fiorina and Christie will drop out before the end of the week as I expected.  I think Trump gets Fiorina's votes and Christie's votes will be split up between Jeb, Rubio and Kasich.  The Carson campaign is on life support so I expect he will be the next major candidate to drop out.  Jeb is hoping that his 4th place finish in NH is proof his campaign is gaining some traction but I can't imagine anyone wanting another Bush in the White House.

The problem for Trump going forward is that the only new votes he'll gain are from Carson voters when he suspends his campaign.  As the other candidates drop out their votes will likely go to the remaining establishment candidates.

Why do they always use the term "suspend?"  To me, suspend implies something other than permanence.  But it's not as if they'll change their minds 3 months from now and revive it.

Just say "end!"

[newtogolf]

5 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

Why do they always use the term "suspend?"  To me, suspend implies something other than permanence.  But it's not as if they'll change their minds 3 months from now and revive it.

Just say "end!"

Good question, maybe they don't want to be called a "quitter"?