Presidential Race 2016

[Dave2512]

4 minutes ago, Braivo said:

 

Some of the many, many states he's won. How was turnout in NY where he won big? How about the 8.7m voters who have cast a vote for Trump so far. This is a weak argument. Trump has more delegates, by far, and more popular vote. He will come out ahead in each at the end of the day. It's looking likely that he will hit 1237 even with the collusion of Kasich and Cruz. 

If Cruz were winning with the numbers Trump has right now they'd be calling him the presumptive nominee. 

Turnout in NY was low relative to the number of republican voters there. He got just over 500k votes in state with a population that tops 19m.

[jamo]

The funny thing is that Trump actually has a higher percentage of delegates than he does popular votes. The election has proved to be rigged for him, if anything. He just doesn't like the majority requirement, which is understandable. 

[Dave2512]

The republican primary turnout has been low for sure. In some states they are haggling over a few thousand voters. Probably a big reason so many dropped out early. The news tells us so and so didn't finish well but unless a closer look is taken it's easy to miss the tally has been low. That's what GOP leaders should really be concerned about, the people that typically vote red are staying home.

[Gunther]

1 hour ago, Dave2512 said:

The republican primary turnout has been low for sure. In some states they are haggling over a few thousand voters. Probably a big reason so many dropped out early. The news tells us so and so didn't finish well but unless a closer look is taken it's easy to miss the tally has been low. That's what GOP leaders should really be concerned about, the people that typically vote red are staying home.

Voting in GOP primaries and caucuses is up over 60% from 2012.

Edited April 25, 2016 by Gunther

[Chilli Dipper]

59 minutes ago, jamo said:

The funny thing is that Trump actually has a higher percentage of delegates than he does popular votes. The election has proved to be rigged for him, if anything. He just doesn't like the majority requirement, which is understandable. 

After he underperformed in the Iowa caucus, the prediction was that Donald Trump's lack of a ground game would ultimately be his downfall. That may turn out to be true, but not in the way people expected. Having less of a grassroots, boots-on-the-ground presence in the states has not had a negative impact on his voter turnout, but his organization has been completely inept in securing a slate of delegates at state conventions. Considering how Trump presents himself as a master dealmaker, his campaign has been caught off-guard at the prospect of the Republican presidential nomination entering extended negotiations.

[Braivo]

17 hours ago, Dave2512 said:

Turnout in NY was low relative to the number of republican voters there. He got just over 500k votes in state with a population that tops 19m.

 

15 hours ago, jamo said:

The funny thing is that Trump actually has a higher percentage of delegates than he does popular votes. The election has proved to be rigged for him, if anything. He just doesn't like the majority requirement, which is understandable. 

 

14 hours ago, Dave2512 said:

The republican primary turnout has been low for sure. In some states they are haggling over a few thousand voters. Probably a big reason so many dropped out early. The news tells us so and so didn't finish well but unless a closer look is taken it's easy to miss the tally has been low. That's what GOP leaders should really be concerned about, the people that typically vote red are staying home.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/25/exclusive-data-analysis-gop-primary-turnout-8-7-million-votes-60-percent-2016-versus-2012/

Quote

 

Newly compiled data after the New York Republican primary shows that among the states that have voted so far in 2016, GOP primary and caucus turnout is up well more than 8 million votes and well more than 60 percent over 2012’s process.

Top GOP officials say that the intense interest in the GOP primary throughout the year so far only serves to benefit the Republican nominee in November, whoever it ends up being.

In total, so far, nationwide the GOP has seen an increase of 8,719,041 votes in 2016’s primaries, caucuses and conventions over 2012’s primaries, caucuses and conventions. In 2012, 14,452,500 people voted in each of the states and territories that have held contests so far in 2016. In 2016, 23,171,541 people have voted in the GOP contests so far. That is a 60.33 percent increase in GOP contest turnout in just four years.

 

The states where only "a few thousand votes" were counted were caucus states. Caucuses work much differently, they are not elections with ballot boxes, they are small meetings where people raise their hands to vote for a candidate, no joke. 

 

13 hours ago, Gunther said:

Voting in GOP primaries and caucuses is up over 60% from 2012.

Right on!

[saevel25]

15 hours ago, jamo said:

The funny thing is that Trump actually has a higher percentage of delegates than he does popular votes. The election has proved to be rigged for him, if anything. He just doesn't like the majority requirement, which is understandable. 

That will happen when you have an electoral college.  

I like the electoral college because it doesn't let one state rule over other states. 

---

So does this mean that if Cruz is elected he takes Kasich as his VP? 

A little bit more on this deal and actually how it isn't uncommon for candidates to pull these shenanigans to help stop a candidate from getting selected.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-kasich-cruz-alliance-work/

 

[iacas]

18 hours ago, Jeremie Boop said:

But, isn't that how it SHOULD go? Most delegates gets the nomination and just go from there? The fact that there are ways around that is just disconcerting, as if we needed any more reason to distrust political workings.

Seriously.

I'm not following this, but to say as @saevel25 has seemingly done that a guy with a clear lead is not the "people's choice" is just silly at this point. No, by the weird rules politicians have set up, he hasn't secured the nomination, but… so what? He's clearly the favorite, by a wide margin.

Edit: He has over 50% more than Cruz and almost 20% more than Cruz and Kasich combined. That seems like a pretty sizable lead, and a majority.

[Braivo]

48 minutes ago, iacas said:

Edit: He has over 50% more than Cruz and almost 20% more than Cruz and Kasich combined. That seems like a pretty sizable lead, and a majority.

By most definitions of democracy this would make him the presumptive nominee. 

Amazingly, he has done this while only spending a total of $49,000,000. Since the start of the election season his opponents have spent a combined $650,000,000 and were unable to defeat him. The American people have spoken and they are rejecting the bought and paid for establishment candidates. There is simply no debate. 

More delegates, more popular vote, he's the choice of the American people to run for POTUS. Acceptance is necessary. 

[Dave2512]

Not until he gets to 1237 is acceptance necessary. There are still hundreds of delegates up for grabs. The stop Trump movement doesn't think Cruz or Kasich can get there the goal is to narrow the delegate gap heading into the convention. Problem is Cruz and Kasich haven't been getting many actual votes. Kasich looks uncomfortable in his spoiler role post pact. I saw a clip of him being asked if he was desperate and he was clearly offended by it, probably because the truth hurts.

[saevel25]

16 minutes ago, Braivo said:

The American people have spoken and they are rejecting the bought and paid for establishment candidates. There is simply no debate. 

Only about 23% of American's affiliated as GOP. You got 40% (Trump's average poling numbers) of that 23% voting for Trump. You get a max of around 9.2% of the total population is voting for Trump right now, if the GOP had 100% voter turn out.  Doing the math it's at 7.3% right now for Trump. There is only a 32% voter turn out right now for the GOP primary.

Still, that is hardly classified as the American people. That statement should be left for after the general election . 

---

What I find interesting is that this country lets 30% of the country, the current voter turnout for both primaries (based on total eligible voters), decide the two candidates. These two candidates have the worst favorable ratings of all the candidates still in. 

Trump -35
Cruz -21
Kasich +11

Clinton -14 
Sanders +5

This country could easily pick an independent candidate for president if they wanted to. 

[Jeremie Boop]

3 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Only about 23% of American's affiliated as GOP. You got 40% (Trump's average poling numbers) of that 23% voting for Trump. You get a max of around 9.2% of the total population is voting for Trump right now, if the GOP had 100% voter turn out.  Doing the math it's at 7.3% right now for Trump. There is only a 32% voter turn out right now for the GOP primary.

Still, that is hardly classified as the American people. That statement should be left for after the general election . 

---

What I find interesting is that this country lets 30% of the country, the current voter turnout for both primaries (based on total eligible voters), decide the two candidates. These two candidates have the worst favorable ratings of all the candidates still in. 

Trump -35
Cruz -21
Kasich +11

Clinton -14 
Sanders +5

This country could easily pick an independent candidate for president if they wanted to. 

Probably because this is the worst crop of candidates we've had in so long even fewer people want to associate themselves with one of them.

[Dave2512]

Suppose it depends on what side you are on. Not a fan but Bernie's numbers have been impressive given he's losing his race. He got as nearly many votes in NY as all the republicans combined. The turnout for democrats compared to republicans is lopsided.

[StevenR84]

Trump knew the rules before he entered. If he didn't, a guy who doesn't prepare himself properly for such an undertaking doesn't seem like the guy who should be the best choice. Kasich isn't dropping out because he thinks he can get the votes at a contested convention. It is amazing that people don't want establishment or paid for politicians, but are more than willing to vote for a guy who gave those politicians plenty of money.

2 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

Suppose it depends on what side you are one. Not a fan but Bernie's numbers have been impressive given he's losing his race. He got as nearly many votes in NY as all the republicans combined. The turnout for democrats compared to republicans is lopsided.

This will transfer over to the general as well. Republicans are fighting a losing battle this time around and they have to know it by now.

[newtogolf]

3 minutes ago, StevenR84 said:

Trump knew the rules before he entered. If he didn't, a guy who doesn't prepare himself properly for such an undertaking doesn't seem like the guy who should be the best choice. Kasich isn't dropping out because he thinks he can get the votes at a contested convention. It is amazing that people don't want establishment or paid for politicians, but are more than willing to vote for a guy who gave those politicians plenty of money.

We are tired of the establishment.  Every time they've had an opportunity to do as they promised during their campaign the stabbed us in the back.  It's time for them all to feel very comfortable and uncertain about their jobs.  Electing Trump is the best way to send that message.  

[StevenR84]

7 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

We are tired of the establishment.  Every time they've had an opportunity to do as they promised during their campaign the stabbed us in the back.  It's time for them all to feel very comfortable and uncertain about their jobs.  Electing Trump is the best way to send that message.  

But you realize it's because of people like Trump that they stab you in the back correct? The wealthiest of the wealthy paying to get their way.

[Braivo]

37 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Only about 23% of American's affiliated as GOP. You got 40% (Trump's average poling numbers) of that 23% voting for Trump. You get a max of around 9.2% of the total population is voting for Trump right now, if the GOP had 100% voter turn out.  Doing the math it's at 7.3% right now for Trump. There is only a 32% voter turn out right now for the GOP primary.

Still, that is hardly classified as the American people. That statement should be left for after the general election . 

---

What I find interesting is that this country lets 30% of the country, the current voter turnout for both primaries (based on total eligible voters), decide the two candidates. These two candidates have the worst favorable ratings of all the candidates still in. 

Trump -35
Cruz -21
Kasich +11

Clinton -14 
Sanders +5

This country could easily pick an independent candidate for president if they wanted to. 

Ok, to your first point, Cruz is only getting 28% of that 23%, should that make him the nominee? 

I agree that the party system is broken and a poor way of picking the best candidates for POTUS. That has been highlighted more so in this election cycle than any other. 

At this point Hillary and Trump will receive far more votes and delegates than anyone else in their respective parties, they win fair and square. 

A lot of those favorable ratings will change once the GE cycle hits. 

20 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

Suppose it depends on what side you are on. Not a fan but Bernie's numbers have been impressive given he's losing his race. He got as nearly many votes in NY as all the republicans combined. The turnout for democrats compared to republicans is lopsided.

What is impressive about Bernie's numbers? The fact that he has 3,000,000 less votes than Hillary? Or that he has significantly less delegates?

How is the turnout lopsided? Do you mean toward republicans, because at last count there have been nearly 22,000,000 votes cast for republicans and 18,000,000 for democrats. 

18 minutes ago, StevenR84 said:

Trump knew the rules before he entered. If he didn't, a guy who doesn't prepare himself properly for such an undertaking doesn't seem like the guy who should be the best choice. Kasich isn't dropping out because he thinks he can get the votes at a contested convention. It is amazing that people don't want establishment or paid for politicians, but are more than willing to vote for a guy who gave those politicians plenty of money.

This will transfer over to the general as well. Republicans are fighting a losing battle this time around and they have to know it by now.

Trump will win this election in a landslide. His demise has been predicted every day since July, yet he continues to win. He is the anti-fragile candidate of our lifetime. 

14 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

We are tired of the establishment.  Every time they've had an opportunity to do as they promised during their campaign the stabbed us in the back.  It's time for them all to feel very comfortable and uncertain about their jobs.  Electing Trump is the best way to send that message.  

Exactly. Trump's message resonates with those who have watched the middle class erode over that last few decades. People are waking up to the fact that unions and other special interest groups do not have their best interests at heart. Trump is a man that loves his country and wants to make it the best he can. He doesn't need to run for POTUS, he could just retire to daily rounds of golf and ride off into the sunset, but instead he is spending his own money and time to do this. You can see his love for the American people everywhere he goes. 

[StevenR84]

11 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Trump will win this election in a landslide. His demise has been predicted every day since July, yet he continues to win. He is the anti-fragile candidate of our lifetime. 

I will gladly take a bet against Trump winning the general election in a landslide. Trump is so inconsistent and is only out to do what best suits him, as he has always been in his career. I don't know why all of a sudden people would think he has their best interest in mind. All he has done is spew rhetoric about walls and China, yet has his clothes made in Mexico. Great guy

 

13 minutes ago, Braivo said:

What is impressive about Bernie's numbers? The fact that he has 3,000,000 less votes than Hillary? Or that he has significantly less delegates?

The impressive numbers are that a year ago he was down 50 points in national polls, and is now in a dead heat with Hillary nationally. Not bad for a guy that got ZERO media exposure for most of his campaign and has been written off by just about everyone