Presidential Race 2016

[phillyk]

3 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Exactly. Trump's message resonates with those who have watched the middle class erode over that last few decades. People are waking up to the fact that unions and other special interest groups do not have their best interests at heart. Trump is a man that loves his country and wants to make it the best he can. He doesn't need to run for POTUS, he could just retire to daily rounds of golf and ride off into the sunset, but instead he is spending his own money and time to do this. You can see his love for the American people everywhere he goes. 

Except the thousands/millions of people who protest his campaigns at every stop.  He doesn't care about them at all and has made that perfectly clear.  Whether he promotes violence or not, he's still supporting those who do violence against his protestors. 

Spare me the, "spending his own money," the guy has never even sniffed running out of money or struggling to pay bills.  He could do this campaign every 4 years spending the same amount of money and be just dandy.  As to time, the guy has been a media craver for quite a while now.  This is nothing new to him and is just a different platform from which to gain more airtime.  Don't get me wrong, I'll give it to him that he's scared the establishment and I am happy with that.  But, he's done too much wrong and knows too little about stuff that matters for me to favor him.  He was a favorable distraction and mixer of the pot to try and steer domestic politics in a better direction from here on out, but I want a real person to lead this country.  I'm not 100% sure who that is yet, but I know it's not Trump.

[Braivo]

7 minutes ago, phillyk said:

 I'm not 100% sure who that is yet, but I know it's not Trump.

The other option is Hillary. A woman who has probably done more shady stuff than Trump. 

Check out this excellent breakdown of how Trump will get the win. Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, has called the Trump success since the beginning. 

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/143431313681/the-unfavorability-illusion

Quote

 

Now let’s talk about Trump’s sky-high unfavorability rating that hovers around 70%. Trump haters use that figure as their last hope. No one can get elected with such high negatives, they say.

That is cognitive dissonance. And it is one of the cleanest examples you will ever see. I’ll tell you why.

Literally everything about Trump’s campaign has violated form. He has no government experience, he isn’t polite, he hasn’t mastered the policy details, he isn’t taking money from big donors, and on and on. Yet he is poised to take the Republican nomination.

So none of the old rules apply to Trump. He has approached the election as a persuader, not a traditional politician.

No traditional politician could overcome a 70% unfavorability rating at this stage of the election cycle. But Trump isn’t a traditional politician. He’s a persuader.

Keep in mind that Clinton’s unfavorability is also high, at around 56%. That’s a 14 point difference from Trump. Can a Master Persuader close a 14-point gap before November?

I would rate that task as “easy.”

No one else in politics could close that kind of gap. But Trump has special tools and a willingness to use them. This challenge is almost exactly what Trump does well – change minds.

Let me list a few ways Trump could win despite high unfavorables.

1. Trump could make Clinton’s unfavorable ratings worse, which will be easy once Trump concentrates on her in the general election. 

2. Trump could improve his own favorability by being more “presidential” for a few months so he doesn’t look so crazy.

3. Trump can sell the “two Trumps” story (while simultaneously denying it) until you start recognizing his campaign behavior as strategy, not insanity. That sale is underway now.

4. Clinton’s health could be such an issue by November that she no longer looks like a viable option. That’s at least a 50% likelihood in my opinion. (Part of a hypnotist’s skill set involves detecting “tells” for health issues. Clinton looks deeply unhealthy to me.)

5. Trump could name a VP that makes Trump seem less scary. That seems like a near certainty.

6. Clinton’s server scandal could turn into an indictment. Or worse, it could appear as if the indictment is being delayed for political reasons. That plays into Trump’s “rigged system” narrative. He wins either way (in typical Trump fashion.)

7. Trump could win Sanders supporters (young people) by coming out in favor of legal weed and inexpensive or free college. Add some support for universal healthcare (better than Obamacare), some job promises, and you’re almost there.

8. Trump has already improved his haircut. The color is no longer orange and the cut is much better. Humans are visual creatures, and that old haircut probably accounted for about 10 points of his 70% unfavorable rating. The new look is probably already having a small effect.

9. Trump can move to the middle on his most aggressive policies. Expect to hear more about how the deported illegal immigrants can easily get back into the country via legal means. And remember my prediction that we will temporarily call U.S. Post Offices Mexican Embassies so the illegals can “deport” themselves just by going to the Post Office and filling out some forms. That is technical deportation (because an Embassy is foreign territory) but no one is worse off for it.

10. The Syrian refugee crisis could spawn more terror attacks in Europe, or more rape stories. That seems likely. A few days ago, Germany’s chancellor, Merkel, came out in favor of refugee “safe zones” in Syria. That was Trump’s idea months ago. Everyone scoffed. Watch as Trump’s “crazy talk” from months ago turns into policy before your eyes.

11. Trump can prove he’s not a racist. That’s easy. All he needs to do is hug a bunch of non-white folks on camera. Real racists don’t hug the ones they dislike. They just don’t. 

12. Trump can push “love” over hate. As I predicted some time ago, he is already saying love, love, love. This persuasion will take lots of time and repetition to have an impact, but Trump has time, and he controls the rate of repetition.

13. As long as Cruz and Kasich are in the race, our minds allow us to imagine an alternative to Trump that is some sort of magical unicorn of goodness. Our brains are conflating all the non-Trump Republicans (including Romney and Ryan) into some sort of imaginary “other” that has qualities we like. Likewise, on the Democrat side, your brain is combining Clinton and Sanders as one conflated Democrat option. And Bernie brings some good qualities to that imaginary creature (such as the appearance of honesty).

Your brain has not yet compared Trump (alone) to Clinton (alone). You have only compared conflated concepts of a Clinton/Sanders creature to a Trump/Cruz/Kasich/Romney/Ryan creature. You think that isn’t happening in YOUR head, but it is. That’s how all of us are wired. We don’t compartmentalize as well as we think.

 

 

[StevenR84]

Back to this Trump fella. He's a businessman and people think that's what we need. The problem with businessmen is they are only out to please 1 group of people:Shareholders. Now you can argue that we are all shareholders in the USA, but you could also argue that we are the employees within the USA. Not every decision is best for the people working for a company but may be best for the shareholders. I think it's dicey and I in no way believe that Trump has the American people's best interest at heart.

[saevel25]

 

40 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Ok, to your first point, Cruz is only getting 28% of that 23%, should that make him the nominee? 

I never said Trump shouldn't be. Who ever wins the GOP election, by how the GOP set up their rules, should be the candidate. That is the process they have. It's the process all the candidates agreed upon when they entered this crazy race. 

If Trump is complaining about the process to show how stupid it is the way the GOP does it, then fine. I can back that. If he is complaining about the process because it might cost him the nod, then that is just someone whining about how unfair life is. What, does Trump want a pity party! If he didn't read the rules of the game then he should not be playing it.

40 minutes ago, Braivo said:

A lot of those favorable ratings will change once the GE cycle hits. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-viewed-unfavorably-by-majority-cbsnyt-poll/

Compared to previous elections the two candidates are at a all time low. Most presidential candidates have a single digit favorable or a single digit unfavorable rating going into the general election. 

40 minutes ago, Braivo said:

How is the turnout lopsided? Do you mean toward republicans, because at last count there have been nearly 22,000,000 votes cast for republicans and 18,000,000 for democrats. 

Primary turnout does not matter. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

40 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Trump will win this election in a landslide. 

Just going into the GE it's Democrats 221 to Republican's at best 206. When you look at states that have voted 100% democrat going back to 1992 and still had a high percentage voting for Obama, the Democrats get 221 votes. I don't see them shifting. 

I'll take that bet. By definition a landslide is when they win over 70% of the electoral votes. No presidential win defined as a landslide has been under 70%. 

At best the GOP has 317 max. That is only 59%. No way he gets above 375 electoral votes to be classified as a landslide. Even if he takes NY it's not a landslide. 

I think realistically he could get 275, maybe 295 if he sneaks Pennsylvania. 

40 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Exactly. Trump's message resonates with those who have watched the middle class erode over that last few decades.

The middle class is not coming back anywhere near as it was pre-1990's because we will not get our manufacturing industry back. Globalization has made sure of that. 

No candidate has any good ideas on how to create a new sustainable middle class for the USA. All they think about is either tax cuts or taxing the rich. That doesn't create a middle class. Trump hasn't said anything that makes me think he can create a middle class either. 

 

[rehmwa]

23 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

 landslide is when they win over 70% of the electoral votes. No presidential win defined as a landslide has been under 70%.

HA!!!

But a win of 50.05% has been and always is acclaimed as a "MANDATE OF THE PEOPLE" for either party to try and push their social agendas on all of us (with, of course, the additional taxes that each party assumes we are 'happy to pay' for having their noses stuck all up in our business).

 

and by "business" I actually intended about three other words

[iacas]

Looks like Trump swept all five states today and by some sizable margins.

Clinton did well too.

[Gunther]

2 hours ago, iacas said:

Looks like Trump swept all five states today and by some sizable margins.

Clinton did well too.

All expected and factored into the projections.  Indiana and Cali will decide the GOP nominee (or not decide it).  Really odd cuz we're used to OH, FL, NC, or VA for general elections.

[Braivo]

10 hours ago, iacas said:

Looks like Trump swept all five states today and by some sizable margins.

Clinton did well too.

He exceeded his polling numbers by nearly double digits in some states. PA was supposed to be a "battleground" and he swept every single county. The momentum has shifted and Cruz/Kasich lost support with their attempt at teaming up to stop Trump. 

Trump is polling really well in IN and CA, this thing is nearly over. I can't wait to turn toward the GE and get involved in the Trump campaign here in MI. 

[Gunther]

16 minutes ago, Braivo said:

He exceeded his polling numbers by nearly double digits in some states. PA was supposed to be a "battleground" and he swept every single county. The momentum has shifted and Cruz/Kasich lost support with their attempt at teaming up to stop Trump. 

Trump is polling really well in IN and CA, this thing is nearly over. I can't wait to turn toward the GE and get involved in the Trump campaign here in MI. 

MI would be big for the GOP to get in the general.  Get it.

[Braivo]

9 minutes ago, Gunther said:

MI would be big for the GOP to get in the general.  Get it.

Yes, it has a chance to go red this year for the first time in a long, long time. I'll give it everything I've got!

[saevel25]

An interesting look as to why Trump did better than projected. 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-trumps-nomination-to-lose/

1. Trumps whining about the GOP primary being rigged has drawn some votes to his side. 

2. Voter turn out is on the downturn and it's hurting Kasich and Cruz since their supporters might be seeing that they are fighting a losing battle. (see below)

Still with the way the GOP rules have it Trump is not out of the woods yet. He has to win Indiana and put in a good showing in California. 

---

On the flip side it looks like Clinton has wrapped up the nomination. Recent statements by Sanders went away from attacking Clinton to more trying to push policy. It looks like he's staying in just so his voice can be heard till the general election. 

 

[Dave2512]

Ted Cruz getting into serious WTF territory, reports are he is going to announce a VP choice this afternoon. He is now into mind elections because only in his mind does he have a chance. Yesterday was a beat down deluxe.

[Braivo]

1 hour ago, Dave2512 said:

Ted Cruz getting into serious WTF territory, reports are he is going to announce a VP choice this afternoon. He is now into mind elections because only in his mind does he have a chance. Yesterday was a beat down deluxe.

He sure knows how to double down on losing strategies. He is committing career suicide the further he goes down this path. 

Trump's path is clear now. The goalie has been pulled, winning Indiana will be the empty net goal that ices it. 

BTW, Trump is delivering a phenomenal foreign policy speech right now. 

[Dave2512]

Is he saying stuff like just you wait I am going to make so many good policy deals. In the near future I'll explain how, maybe as early as next week I will have a team assembled.

[pumaAttack]

3 hours ago, Dave2512 said:

Ted Cruz getting into serious WTF territory, reports are he is going to announce a VP choice this afternoon. He is now into mind elections because only in his mind does he have a chance. Yesterday was a beat down deluxe.

Carly Fiorina....

Because she did so stellar earlier.

[Mr. Desmond]

9 minutes ago, pumaAttack said:

Carly Fiorina....

Because she did so stellar earlier.

Lyin' Ted doesn't mind playing the Woman Card in desperation to win California...

Edited April 27, 2016 by Mr. Desmond

[pumaAttack]

Just now, Mr. Desmond said:

Lyin' Ted doesn't mind playing the Woman Card in desperation to win California...

 

I thought it was gonna be Kasich and Cruz joining together as a dual President.  1A 1B type of deal.

[Mr. Desmond]

Just now, pumaAttack said:

 

I thought it was gonna be Kasich and Cruz joining together as a dual President.  1A 1B type of deal.

Lyin' Ted does not give ground to anyone or anything... his VP would be like any other VP ... a lapdog. Of course, Fiorina would not be a choice for a quiet lapdog -- she'd be the new Spiro Agnew -- the VP who gives speeches with bark. But it doesn't matter. Lyin' Ted is a regional candiate, a candidate for those who long for the times of the 1870's...