The "Core group of about 20 million golfers"

[gregsandiego]

Buried in this article about golf's demise, is this statistic on a core group of golfers. I had no idea it's that many. That's 6% of the US population in that group.

I think the takeaway is that the equipment industry can go south even when the sport is very very active. The industry relies on growth - that part is gone. Meanwhile we "avid" golfers just don't need a new set of clubs all that often.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2016/08/05/heres-proof-that-golf-is-falling-apart/

 

[iacas]

I think the rumors of golf's demise are greatly exaggerated. I think there's a lull, while the baby boomers start to die and the "grow the game" initiatives have yet to start to produce independent consumers (i.e. children haven't yet become adults), but that golf will pick up a little bit again.

[nevets88]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

I think the rumors of golf's demise are greatly exaggerated. I think there's a lull, while the baby boomers start to die and the "grow the game" initiatives have yet to start to produce independent consumers (i.e. children haven't yet become adults), but that golf will pick up a little bit again.

Is there a separation between the golf industry - equipment, courses, people who regularly play golf and the professional golf? Maybe. I think the pro tour side is peaking, but is it possible for a sport to grow its amateur ranks without a boost from the pro side? Probably.

[natureboy]

The real story of market saturation and economic downturn doesn't really make for as exciting an article spin, I guess. From the same report the author cites:

Quote

Interest in playing golf is at an all-time high with an estimated 37 million non-golfers saying they are interested in taking up the game. And roughly 20 percent may already be making their first moves. In addition to the 24 million people who played golf on a golf course last year, another 7 million took part in the game at a driving range, a TopGolf facility or on an indoor golf simulator.

Of course that's 'potential' new golf participation that may or may not be realized.

[Rainmaker]

I think golf will eventually be even more popular than it has been in the past - but that we're on the edge of a huge slump that has been building for some time.  The problem, in my opinion, is really the expectations of these big companies that they can "make" golf more accessible, fun, exciting, marketable, whatever . . it's like they had these unrealistic visions of success and now golf is in a slump because they weren't realized.

Golf is just what it is and people have always liked it and always will.  If the general population moves away from golf because it's too difficult, time consuming, complicated, etc . .they will eventually return for the same reasons . .ie . .they'll be bored and unfulfilled by instant gratification and long for something that requires more commitment.     

[nevets88]

With all the let's build lots of courses, design fancy drivers, was there a press to improve instruction? Because if you want more people to play, they're only going to keep playing if they improve. I don't recall seeing an effort to improve instruction commensurate with the golf course boom. If you build it, they will come, that's the mindset. Not good.

[Aguirre]

When I was a kid thirty years ago, I constantly heard about how baseball's fan base is old and that the sport is in trouble. MLB is currently the second richest sports league in the entire world by a significant margin. And you know what I hear? That the sports fan base is too old. Thirty years after I heard the fan base is too old.

In short, golf is fine. 

[Patch]

8 hours ago, natureboy said:

The real story of market saturation and economic downturn doesn't really make for as exciting an article spin, I guess. From the same report the author cites:

Of course that's 'potential' new golf participation that may or may not be realized.

Of that 24 million golfers, is that 24 million different golfers, or does that number include single  golfers who played several rounds?

[natureboy]

3 minutes ago, Patch said:

Of that 24 million golfers, is that 24 million different golfers, or does that number include single  golfers who played several rounds?

Just FYI, it's worth noting that the data is derived from a survey that uses statistical sample projection (like polling) to estimate total the population of individual golfers. 'Total Rounds' is another statistic that's tracked separately.

The 'casual' numbers represent individual golfers playing at least one round. In 2015 that represented about 8% of total US population. Sweden which has one of the highest national participation rates was about 13% at its peak IIRC. I think Scotland and Ireland sit somewhere around 10%.

Avid golfers (24+ rounds / year) were about 7,00,000 in 2015 in the US. I think the 'core' group of ~20,000,000 represents the range of folks playing about 8-24+ rounds per year.

[CR McDivot]

13 hours ago, gregsandiego said:

...I think the takeaway is that the equipment industry can go south even when the sport is very very active. The (equipment) industry relies on growth - that part is gone. Meanwhile we "avid" golfers just don't need a new set of clubs all that often.

Fixed it for ya.

Tee sheets remain as full as ever here. Don't confuse player participation with equipment sales... maybe the consumer is finally realizing there is no magic bullet. You can't buy a swing no matter what the equipment hawkers preach!

[Piz]

What an absurd article.  Nobody plays golf anymore?  How about nobody needs a new set of clubs every 6 months?  The retailers went overboard...not the golfing public.  

[Aguirre]

2 minutes ago, Piz said:

What an absurd article.  Nobody plays golf anymore?  How about nobody needs a new set of clubs every 6 months?  The retailers went overboard...not the golfing public.  

I feel that a lot of people have figured out that "It's not the arrow, it's the Indian."

That may be an offensive stereotype, so here's my apology: I'm sorry.

I was just in Myrtle Beach, and the course was packed on 98 degree, 109 index day. 

[gregsandiego]

31 minutes ago, CR McDivot said:

Fixed it for ya.

Tee sheets remain as full as ever here. Don't confuse player participation with equipment sales... maybe the consumer is finally realizing there is no magic bullet. You can't buy a swing no matter what the equipment hawkers preach!

I think most established golfers don't upgrade frequently. What I meant was if you don't have a constant flow of newcomers the equipment industry goes stagnant.

[natureboy]

1 hour ago, Patch said:

Of that 24 million golfers, is that 24 million different golfers, or does that number include single  golfers who played several rounds?

My estimates are based on, but not direct from the NGF numbers.

Per official numbers, 'Avid' actually seems to have held pretty steady from  2001 to 2012. 'Core' dropped by about 4,000,000 golfers or ~ 23%, mostly post 2008..

Edited August 7, 2016 by natureboy

[Rainmaker]

Right?  There's this whole thing where the manufacturers are telling us this year's equipment goes longer and straighter than last years . but there's also this voice, the USGA, saying these things are regulated and this year's equipment conforms to the same standards as last year's equipment. 

Kind of conflicting messages . .don't you think? 

 

[boogielicious]

20 hours ago, iacas said:

I think the rumors of golf's demise are greatly exaggerated. I think there's a lull, while the baby boomers start to die and the "grow the game" initiatives have yet to start to produce independent consumers (i.e. children haven't yet become adults), but that golf will pick up a little bit again.

Hey! I was born in 1960 and am considered part of the baby boomers!

[billchao]

19 hours ago, nevets88 said:

I think the pro tour side is peaking

What makes you say that? The LPGA was losing sponsors for a while, but the PGA and other high level tours around the world are going strong. I see more kids trying out for their school golf teams every year and while most if not all of them aren't going to play golf professionally, bigger talent pools usually mean more talent at the top.

I think people in the golf business see a downturn and point to the equipment industry and course closures as proof, but how much of that is due to golf being in decline and how much of it was due to overinvestment on the part of speculators?

If you open too many courses for the market to sustain because you were hoping golf would continue an high rate of growth, then a number of them close, you can't just point to that and say the game isn't doing well. Perhaps the original growth projections were inflated to begin with and you overestimated the viability of expansion.

The same goes for the equipment manufacturers. If they can't sell enough clubs to keep developing new models every year, perhaps it is the business model that is the problem, not the market. If you continue to produce above the market demand, you're not going to sell your clubs.

[nevets88]

3 hours ago, billchao said:

What makes you say that? The LPGA was losing sponsors for a while, but the PGA and other high level tours around the world are going strong. I see more kids trying out for their school golf teams every year and while most if not all of them aren't going to play golf professionally, bigger talent pools usually mean more talent at the top.

I think people in the golf business see a downturn and point to the equipment industry and course closures as proof, but how much of that is due to golf being in decline and how much of it was due to overinvestment on the part of speculators?

If you open too many courses for the market to sustain because you were hoping golf would continue an high rate of growth, then a number of them close, you can't just point to that and say the game isn't doing well. Perhaps the original growth projections were inflated to begin with and you overestimated the viability of expansion.

The same goes for the equipment manufacturers. If they can't sell enough clubs to keep developing new models every year, perhaps it is the business model that is the problem, not the market. If you continue to produce above the market demand, you're not going to sell your clubs.

The tour makes most of its money from tv revenues and corporate sponsorships. TV ratings have been flat, Tiger Woods is pretty much gone, with no one to replace him, the streaming model is taking hold, which means lower profits because advertisers pay less for streaming ads. I guess corporate sponsors will always be there, but if fewer people watch, fewer eyeballs on corporate ads.

I think there can be a bifurcation between grassroots golf and professional golf, it's not necessary that they do well together.

Of course, all this can be totally moot should ratings improve because of a rivalry, competitive compelling majors, or someone gets really hot and maintains it.