Over/Under On Improvement In 1 Month

[bones75]

I have a golf trip w/ 7 buddies in early april. One of the guys was like an 8-10 index from 2008-2013.  Since then he's gradually stopped playing (like 2 outings in 2018), and shoots 96 on average for the last 2-3 years.

He happens to have an entire month free right before our trip. He says he will (and i believe him) be playing or practicing that entire month.  He thinks he can average 86 on the trip (10 strokes scoring avg improvement).  This has quickly turned into huge action in our group. At least $500 already in play, and split evenly so far.  He's late 40's, pretty athletic, and in great shape. We'll be playing Torrey Pines on the final round and 2 muni "easier scoring" courses before that.

Any thought on where I should put my money?  Half of me think it'll be ez for him to get back into his old form, and half of me thinks it'll be impossible. Don't expect u guys to have the right answers w/o knowing him or the details, but would be interested in any related stories you may have heard of.

[iacas]

I'm going to ask you to re-write the question and/or the answers. By choosing "over" am I choosing "over 86 average" or "over 10 shots of improvement"?

Though I think 10 is possible, I'm taking "under 10" and "over 86."

[bones75]

@iacas idk wut i'm doing wrong, but can't seem to find a way to edit it.

My intention was the over/under on "strokes of improvement", but i admit i made it overcomplicated for no reason. 

[Vinsk]

I’m betting under 10 strokes of improvement.

[iacas]

4 minutes ago, bones75 said:

@iacas idk wut i'm doing wrong, but can't seem to find a way to edit it.

My intention was the over/under on "strokes of improvement", but i admit i made it overcomplicated for no reason. 

I re-wrote it. Also… https://thesandtrap.com/how-to/mention-members/

[bones75]

@iacas tx and tx!

[Buckeyebowman]

I took the under and see that my thinking aligns with everyone else. 10 strokes in a month? I don't think so! Yes, he used to do it, but that was 6 years ago. Hard to scrape off 6 years of rust in a month.

[bones75]

lol.  not just here but it's starting to favor the "under" in our group (more of us are thinking he'll shoot higher than 86).  So he's now saying he'll cover any spread to keep the line at 86 and even money. He's probably in it $200 on his own now.  

He's motivated for sure now.

[Lihu]

9 minutes ago, bones75 said:

lol.  not just here but it's starting to favor the "under" in our group (more of us are thinking he'll shoot higher than 86).  So he's now saying he'll cover any spread to keep the line at 86 and even money. He's probably in it $200 on his own now.  

He's motivated for sure now.

Under 10, but possibly pretty close. I took a 6 month break and still shoot a lot worse, but then again I only play once a week. Playing daily really improves your scores especially if your swing is halfway decent, distance-wise that is.

[David in FL]

If he played to about an 8 within the last 6 or 7 years, then I think he should be able to get back into the mid-80’s pretty quickly, but that’s different than averaging it.

Right on the edge for me, but I think he gets well into the 80’s, but the blow up rounds keep him above 86 on average.  

[billchao]

I went with the under. Seems like the odds are better, it's a significant amount of improvement in a short span of time, plus playing unfamiliar courses on the trip might lead to higher scores as well.

[Lihu]

24 minutes ago, billchao said:

I went with the under. Seems like the odds are better, it's a significant amount of improvement in a short span of time, plus playing unfamiliar courses on the trip might lead to higher scores as well.

Yes, they are...seems like there should be odds added like 1.5:1 for and 1:1 against. 😂

[GolfLug]

10 strokes avg?? Yeah, no. Having said that, tell him we would love to be wrong. Would make for a great story for us over 40 crowd. Good luck to him. 

[DeadMan]

Probably under. An 8-10 handicap isn't going to average much lower than 86, depending on the difficultly of courses he plays. I think I averaged 81 last year as a 6. So, even if he does get back to near his old level, he might not get to be an 86 on average.

That said, I think it would be possible to shed 10 strokes in a month. If he's losing a bunch of strokes because his putting/short game is rusty, you could fix those areas in a month pretty well I'd say. If his swing has deteriorated a bunch from when he last played seriously, or he's lost a bunch of distance, it's going to be a lot harder.

Also, it's not like he's going to be doing nothing but playing or practicing for a month. Especially if he doesn't seem improvement quickly, he'll probably burn out and not practice/play as much as he thinks he will.

[gbogey]

If his short game used to be good, I think he can do the 10 strokes.  If that was his weakness, then no.

[RandallT]

Haven’t seen such negativity since the Dan Plan thread!! Never mind that the well-placed negativity was the obviously correct position, but still! C’mon folks, I’m feeling this!

im thinking he won’t take long to get back to his original playing level, so the “10stroke in a month” framing is a making this feel tougher than it might be.

Its basically can he hold it together and not blow up? A guy who has been away from the game needs to do about what he used to average - on away courses, one of which might be tough, while presumably getting blitzed at night with buddies.

Hey, I don’t know the guy, but with cash riding on it, ya never know. I’m gonna enjoy his glory when he takes your money like candy from a baby! 😆

[klineka]

17 minutes ago, gbogey said:

If his short game used to be good, I think he can do the 10 strokes.  If that was his weakness, then no.

My thoughts are the exact opposite. 

Player A - above average ball striker for his handicap. short game and putting are his weaknesses.

Player B - below average ball striker for his handicap, short game and putting are his strengths.

Which of these two players is going to have an easier time dropping 10 strokes in 30 days? Obviously player A.

You can make improvements in short game much much quicker than you can in ball striking/full swing, especially if short game was your glaring weakness.

[chilepepper]

I voted under but.....be careful. He might already have the game.......and is fixing to sandbag you

Edited February 11, 2019 by chilepepper