Is Rory McIlroy Washed Up? How Will He Do In 2022?

[chspeed]

Following a thread on the 2020 Ryder Cup topic, some people (including me) had opinions on whether Rory was washed up or not. I thought it would be fun to do a poll and see how he does in 2022.

I personally believe that Rory can still win, despite the fact some key stats have dropped in the past couple of years. He was PGA Player of the year in 2019, not that long ago. He's still one of the world's best drivers, and while he likely won't be #1 again, I believe he can still win any tournament he enters and has an outside chance of winning a major in 2022.

[saevel25]

It is hard for me to say he is not one of the best players in the world. I mean, here is his strokes gain total over the past 5 years...

7th, 12th, 1st, 9th, 17th

3-top 10's, all 20th or above. Over the past 5 years, he's in the top 10% of PGA tour golfers in strokes gained. 

Here is his top-10 finish ranking on the PGA Tour over the past 5 years...

18th, 6th, 1st, 8th, 16th. 

I think he underperformed last year in terms of finishes with how well he was in strokes gained. He maybe overperformed in 2019. 

I would say he is just inconsistent enough to not put 4 rounds together to win as much as he wants. He's good enough to still be a threat to win each week due to his strokes gained. I think he still has the talent and ability to win multiple times each season and compete for majors. Something is just not there right now for him get over that hump. 

[dennyjones]

It's almost as if he hasn't recovered from trying to be like BDC.

[boogielicious]

  On 9/30/2021 at 12:57 AM, dennyjones said:

It's almost as if he hasn't recovered from trying to be like BDC.

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Agree here. He needs to play his game. I think he will win again and really contend in majors.

[Bonvivant]

I'll chime in since I was one of the participants in the RC thread, and am on the "declining" side. I voted option four.

I already thought he was in a decline, though may still win in the future, but after the "I couldn't give a s***" comment about his individual accomplishments, I am even more in that camp. He will still play, make most cuts, a decent amount of top 20s, and a handful of top 10s, but I would have him at +2500 or worse each week for a win if I were setting the line.

I admit that it is completely possible that it is just a mini slump and he will be back on track this year, but I think it is more likely that he falls out of top 20 OWGR by the end of the 2022 fedex playoffs. To me, the only thing he needs is to "give a s***" about his individual performance and he could be right there. After that interview (and after a baby), I don't see him putting in the work to get his game back to top notch, and with the attitude he expressed in it I think his mentality isn't where it needs to be to be a top 20 player.

I'm open to all criticism of this and love that the OP made this a separate topic, because I think that it is really worth discussing.

edit*

After rereading the options, I'd put him at option 3.5. Definitely still has the potential to win one or more, but it really depends on his attitude and the work he puts in.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Bonvivant
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[GolfLug]

Ima fan so a bit biased but he seems to be due for a turn around. Great drivers always lurk if they aren't already in the lead. 

[Archie Bunker]

He's a likeable guy, but at this point I think his future looks like the path of Sergio Garcia. Not the "next Tiger Woods" they were expecting. But still an impressive list of majors.

[GolfLug]

'Next Tiger Woods' was never a reasonable expectation. Rory never did create that level of separation even back in 2014. I don't think anyone in today's rota of superstars can. Not for a few years straight. 

 

[DeadMan]

I don't think he'll win a major next year, but Rory can easily got on a hot streak and win a couple of tournaments. He had a bad year by his standards and still won a tournament this year. He won 4 times in 2019. He's still in his early 30s. I don't think he's washed up at all. I doubt he has a major season like 2014 again, but I would be surprised if he's doing winning.

I really enjoy watching and hearing from Rory, so I hope he bounces back.

[Vinsk]

I think Rory is in a bit of an emotional conundrum. He definitely loves this game and is one of the best out there. I think he is pretty satisfied with what he has accomplished yet maybe wishes he wanted dominance more. He doesn’t have the fire that Woods has/had. I think he enjoys it as much, but that’s different. Golf can really get to us, well a lot of us. 

[pganapathy]

He will definitely win a couple of tournaments next year, and I do believe he can win a major.  Last year and this year he has shown the game, just not managed it four days in a row.  He looks like he is finding consistency and form, which is why I reckon a major is possible

[iacas]

  On 9/30/2021 at 4:49 PM, pganapathy said:

He will definitely win a couple of tournaments next year

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How much would you be willing to bet on that?

[pganapathy]

  On 9/30/2021 at 5:27 PM, iacas said:

How much would you be willing to bet on that?

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I would bet on that.  He will win tournaments.  Majors is a harder bet since fields tend to be deeper there, and that bet would be a small one for me, though I do believe he can do it

[iacas]

  On 10/1/2021 at 10:17 AM, pganapathy said:

I would bet on that.  He will win tournaments.

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You said two. How many did he win this year?

How much?

[Bucki1968]

I like how Rory talks to the media and it seems like he pretty much tells you what he is thinking. I am speculating but I wonder how hard it is to motivate yourself when you have already done what he has done. Maybe he's become comfortable and is tired of the grind of playing on the tour(s)? Priorities change as you go through life so perhaps he's not  built like Tiger and wants to win and dominate? He looks like he's tired of it. 

[chspeed]

  On 10/1/2021 at 12:04 PM, Bucki1968 said:

I like how Rory talks to the media and it seems like he pretty much tells you what he is thinking. I am speculating but I wonder how hard it is to motivate yourself when you have already done what he has done. Maybe he's become comfortable and is tired of the grind of playing on the tour(s)? Priorities change as you go through life so perhaps he's not  built like Tiger and wants to win and dominate? He looks like he's tired of it. 

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No doubt that life happens, and priorities change. But I personally don't put too much weight in what athletes tell the media right after an event. Especially one they lose. Regardless, just as motivations can go down, they can go up too.

[Vinsk]

  On 10/1/2021 at 10:17 AM, pganapathy said:

and that bet would be a small one for me,

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Can you specify ‘small’ ?

[StuM]

I voted "3 - Rory is a great player. Potential to win 1 or more tournaments, but will at least be finishing top 10 multiple times throughout the year."  I considered voting #4 but did not like the "Can't win, but may get lucky" and "Stats will deteriorate".  I was not comfortable with #2 for him to get multiple wins, he would need to really need to step it up for that to happen.  The competition is strong, even in the non-majors.  He may step it up and win multiple times, and I hope he does, but I would not be putting any money on multiple wins.