Reasonable Driver Club Speed Formula to Aim for?

[p1n9183]

Messing around with PGA Stats I gathered info of all PGA tour pro's from this season. From each player I took club head speed, age, height and weight. 
Assuming this guys have really good efficiency in their swings (in order to swing as fast as they feel comfortable with their bodies but keeping it in play) I managed to came up with a formula (using google spreadsheets, multiple linear regression, and brute force) where you can input your own age, height and weight and see what would be an average club head speed you can achieve if you get your swing really efficient (and have an average athletic physic). 

Club Speed = 99.6 + Height * 0.13 + Weight * 0.08 - Age * 0.24

Height in inches, weight in pounds and age in years. Club speed in miles/h

As for myself, I'm currently at a +0.3 index and 105 club head speed, starting to work on improving my swing to get more speed. 
Height: 70 inches, Weight: 165 pounds, age 39. 

Replacing in the formula: 99.6 + 70*0.13 + 165*0.08 - 39 * 0.24 = 112.5 m/h

I think that I can still gain a couple more miles if I change a couple things in my swing, like using ground forces, having higher hands in the backswing, more rotation, etc. Things that I know I lack and can give me that boost in speed I really need to compete in scratch tournaments against +2..+3 guys. 

What about your numbers?? Does the formula correlate to your current speed or ambitions?

 

[iacas]

10 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

Club Speed = 99.6 + Height * 0.13 + Weight * 0.08 - Age * 0.24

@kpaulhus, your newborn should be hitting it 250 yards or so, then! I took rough guesses…

99.6 + 24*0.13 + 25 * 0.08 - 1 *0.24 = ~105 MPH!

@p1n9183, while I appreciate the idea here… there's so much more to it than what you've listed. Weight shouldn't matter (and you've only given that a 0.08 multiplier, so that's good), and age is likely a curve, not increasingly losing distance. You should have probably investigated setting the peak at 27 or something, and subtracting based on the difference from 27. Possibly even going down faster on the low side (i.e. a 12-year-old will swing slower than a 42-year-old).

Anyway, my math puts me right at about the Tour average.

[saevel25]

11 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

Club Speed = 99.6 + Height * 0.13 + Weight * 0.08 - Age * 0.24

To nitpick a here. 😛

I would say height will influence weight. Arm length might matter a bit more than height. Also, you would obviously not have this information, but body weight should be muscle mass. 230-lbs at 25% body fat is different than at 10% body fat.

[SEMI_Duffer]

Hmmm... Your formula suggests that, if I got my act together, I should be able to achieve 107 MPH CHS.  Near as I can tell that would equate to about a 240 yard drive if I flushed it well.

Something to which to aspire 

[ChetlovesMer]

[billchao]

It says I can potentially swing 109. I average 113.

[ChetlovesMer]

2 minutes ago, billchao said:

It says I can potentially swing 109. I average 113.

Clearly @billchao you have exceeded your potential. 

[billchao]

2 minutes ago, ChetlovesMer said:

Clearly @billchao you have exceeded your potential. 

If I had a nickel for every time this has been said to me in my life, I’d have 5¢.

[p1n9183]

44 minutes ago, iacas said:

there's so much more to it than what you've listed

Totally agree, but is hard to get more info. Just worked with easy to gather info. 

44 minutes ago, iacas said:

You should have probably investigated setting the peak at 27 or something, and subtracting based on the difference from 27.

Most players are in the range 25 to 40 years old. I was shocked to see that there are just a few players under 25 playing in the tour. 

27 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

but body weight should be muscle mass. 230-lbs at 25% body fat is different than at 10% body fat.

Totally agree, that would take me to look at every pro recent picture with cloths and calculate body fat %. Not a chance haha!
That's why I remarked "have an average athletic physic"

20 minutes ago, SEMI_Duffer said:

Something to which to aspire

It's the idea. Is a formula that is going to be close of what you can achieve.  

7 minutes ago, billchao said:

It says I can potentially swing 109. I average 113.

Perfect, close enough. You are above average in the normal distribution. 

[klineka]

Math works out to 117mph for me.

Last night was more of a "controlled swing" night for me with driver and I averaged 120mph and maxed at 127mph.

On Monday I was moving quick and averaged 125mph and maxed at 130mph.

[StuM]

Either I am doing math wrong or I really need to increase my clubhead speed.  I am 6'2 and @ 275 lbs, I get:

99.6 + 74*.13 + 275*.08 - 62*.24 = 116.

I do not know my actual clubhead speed but highly doubt I am anywhere near 116

Now, if I lower my weight to 225lbs I get @ 112.

I'll need to look back at some prior lessons and see if any showed my speed.  I've not been on a monitor for a couple of years so even that would be outdated data.

[iacas]

1 hour ago, p1n9183 said:

Most players are in the range 25 to 40 years old. I was shocked to see that there are just a few players under 25 playing in the tour.

Right, but you posted it as if it's a formula for use by the general population. The general population is not just 25-40 year olds.

[mdl]

I agree with all the points about how this isn't a particularly meaningful prediction or inferential model. But's a fun descriptor of PGA players and a fun exercise for the rest of us who are at least close to PGA tour age range! I came in at 116.7mph, which is about right. I game probably something like 108-110mph, but I'm capable of sustaining 120mph swings for the fences with dispersion reasonable for long drive competitions but not for on course. If I quit my job and took up golf full time I could totally get to gaming 116mph 😆

[GolfLug]

The formula math says I must be 110 years old or that I am actually 155 lbs lighter than I actually am. 

[iacas]

24 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

The formula math says I must be 110 years old or that I am actually 155 lbs lighter than I actually am. 

We always knew you were an old soul, Vishal. What we didn't know is that it explains your 220-yard tee shots. (J/K! 🤣)

[SEMI_Duffer]

1 hour ago, StuM said:

Either I am doing math wrong or I really need to increase my clubhead speed.  I am 6'2 and @ 275 lbs, ...

You did the math correctly, or we both did it incorrectly 

Somebody pointed-out, earlier, that the weight part of the calculation is probably predicated on a body fat percentage relatively consistent with the average PGA Pro.

I mean no offense by this, but, at 6 ft. 2 in. of height and 275 lbs., you're either lifting really heavy on a regular basis or... 

For reference: Remember when DeChambeau came back after the Corona Virus epidemic kinda ripped?  He weighed 240 lbs.  He's 6 ft. 1 in. tall.

Here are my numbers:

99.6 + 76*0.13 + 185*0.08 - 72*0.24 = 107

FWIW: I'm right now somewhere around 16% body fat, which, I would hazard, probably isn't all that far off from the average PGA Pro.  (I do lift, but, not particularly heavy.)

In order for @p1n9183's calculation to be more accurate for the general golf population, I suspect it would also have to take into effect BF% as part of the weight sub-expression and, as @iacas noted, age probably needs to be a logarithmic or exponential sub-expression. 

I also wonder if @p1n9183 tossed the outliers in his data set?  (E.g.: Anything outside of 3-sigma or 6-sigma or whatever.)

 

[GolfLug]

29 minutes ago, iacas said:

We always knew you were an old soul, Vishal. What we didn't know is that it explains your 220-yard tee shots. (J/K! 🤣)

Ok boss, next time I come over, I'm playing the 'senior' tees and beating the shit outta y'all. 

[StuM]

1 hour ago, SEMI_Duffer said:

I mean no offense by this, but, at 6 ft. 2 in. of height and 275 lbs., you're either lifting really heavy on a regular basis or... 

Unfortunately for me it is the later part of your sentence that you politely did not complete. 😁