The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[krupa]

Quote:

Originally Posted by joekelly

Update on the basic argument, as outlined below.

Underlying arguments over whether winners are made or born, or over nature versus nurture, the disagreement points to deep uncertainty about who should receive expert instruction and how best to teach people to excel.

"No one disputes that practice is important," says psychologist David Zachary Hambrick of Michigan State University in East Lansing. "Through practice, people get better. The question is whether that is all there is to it."

But more to read here

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140310-gladwell-expertise-practice-debate-intelligence/?google_editors_picks=true

Very happy to see someone point out the weak point in the work:

Quote:

Hambrick counters that Ericsson's reliance on only a few supreme performers for his studies of expertise turns the studies into anecdotes. "If we don't have enough data points in the study to say anything statistically, then it isn't science."

[nevets88]

What kills me is this is gonna happen. Despite whatever Dan does, there are people out there who will misinterpret his experience and earnestly start to put in 10K hours with outsized expectations.

The Talent Code should be renamed something like - What you can learn from top level experts to improve your practice techniques and possibly take your endeavors to the next level. Ha ha, that's not gonna sell books though.

Yada yada yada - CODE

That sells books.

[newtogolf]

What kills me is this is gonna happen. Despite whatever Dan does, there are people out there who will misinterpret his experience and earnestly start to put in 10K hours with outsized expectations.

The Talent Code should be renamed something like - What you can learn from top level experts to improve your practice techniques and possibly take your endeavors to the next level. Ha ha, that's not gonna sell books though.

Yada yada yada - CODE

That sells books.

Actually people on both sides will misinterpret the data because the entire experiment was flawed.  Dan hasn't demonstrated his practice time was used in the manner the Talent Code suggests.  He appears to spend a good part of the time hacking around.  Based on his recent posts it seems to me he's facing the real possibility he isn't going to achieve the goal and is now getting bored with the whole process.

Those who want to believe that 10,000 hours is all you need will point to the success Dan has had and use the excuse that his 10,000 weren't used properly.   Those that believe talent is in the DNA will cite that he failed to make it through Q School and that you can't practice you way onto the PGA Tour.

In the end it will have hopefully been a fun time for Dan, but in terms of proving or disproving the Talent Code question, the experiment is likely a failure.

[iacas]

The Talent Code should be renamed something like - What you can learn from top level experts to improve your practice techniques and possibly take your endeavors to the next level. Ha ha, that's not gonna sell books though.

I tell people that the main message in the book is "practice at the edge of your ability." The sub-message would be that you can also train specific small skills as part of a larger skill. Maybe that means practicing your footwork as a tennis player (without a racket, a ball, or even a net or court). It's not the stroke itself, but it's important to playing tennis.

But mostly "practice at the edge of your ability." Hence the thread about practicing: .

[Lihu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lihu

However, this is his goal:

"It’s a project in transformation. An experiment in potential and possibilities. Through 10,000 hours of “deliberate practice,” Dan, who currently has minimal golf experience, plans on becoming a professional golfer. But the plan isn’t really about golf: through this process, Dan hopes to prove to himself and others that it’s never too late to start a new pursuit in life.  For a detailed description of the project, please read this blog post: http://thedanplan.com/blog/?p=1090"

Definition of professional golfer:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_golfer

He could still teach, in which case he has some chance of success.

Further down the same page.....

Logging in 30-plus hours a week he will hit the 10,000 hour milestone by December 2016. During this time, Dan plans to develop his skills through deliberate practice, eventually winning amateur events and obtaining his PGA Tour card through a successful appearance in the PGA Tour’s Qualifying School, or “Q-School”.

It's worth noting that "winning amateur events" encompasses a broad spectrum, including winning the "C" flight in his club championship, or the Hogan flight of a local GC AmTour event to the USGA Championships.  Heck, if he can even advance to match play at the U.S. Amateur or make a top-10 at his State Am or the U.S. Mid-Am, I'll be impressed.   Obtaining a PGA Tour card is pretty specific though.....

What does NOT impress me (in this unique circumstance) is a handicap index, until we see some consistent, verifiable tournament results.

Yes, the PGA Tour Card is pretty specific. Not possible for him even with 20,000 hours or even two lifetimes. That was born completely from ignorance of golf, and I'm surprised he didn't amend it the first time he went to a driving range. Even my first trip to the driving ranges (any of them in my area), there were people hitting balls with a lot of power. You could hear the poof sound as the ball screams off the face with a hiss. There are so many more qualified golfers that don't even pretend to think that they could do this. Oh, that's right , he didn't even go to the driving range until something like 6 months into his "training", so he couldn't amend this claim this far into the project.

Agreed that his handicap is somewhat questionable, but I think it is at least "possible" if those are his real Trakman numbers.

[ztexz]

I'm willing to accept his handicap at face value. By way of reference, Phil Mickelson is a +5.  So if Dan wants to have even a prayer of making it to the big time, he needs to shave a further 7 or 8 shots off his handicap.  And he has to do it in 2.5 years.

To say that's a Herculian feat is understatement.  Not to mention that last July homeboy shot a 98 in his club championship.  A club championship.  I mean, that's just several universes away from the type of conditions and pressure he would face on a micro-tour, not to mention the Web.com or, God help him, the PGA Tour.

[Lihu]

I'm willing to accept his handicap at face value. By way of reference, Phil Mickelson is a +5.  So if Dan wants to have even a prayer of making it to the big time, he needs to shave a further 7 or 8 shots off his handicap.  And he has to do it in 2.5 years.

To say that's a Herculian feat is understatement.  Not to mention that last July homeboy shot a 98 in his club championship.  A club championship.  I mean, that's just several universes away from the type of conditions and pressure he would face on a micro-tour, not to mention the Web.com or, God help him, the PGA Tour.

I think he needs to shave off more strokes than that in less than 2.5 years, unless he plans on the Champions tour. I think he's 37 years old already. Even on the Champions Tour he needs to compete with many great ex-PGA tour pros, let's give him another 10,000 hours and another 13 years and I still think he has less than 1% chance of making it on the Champions Tour.

To give this some perspective, there are two ex-players coaching my kids' first tee classes. One was on mini-tours and the other did Canadian tour. They are both still in their mid 20's and consider themselves to be done with pro golf aspirations.One has a bad back (80% usage of his lower disk?). The one with a bad back said he can "only" carry a drive about 280, but at least they're on the fairway. He does not play with any regularity. The other one is still a high + handicap and had a shoulder injury (not golf related) and needed to recover for 1 year. When he got well he couldn't get any sponsors, so he had to quit. He considers it a really "bad" day to only make par on any course. I recall him saying that he scores in the low 60's on the typical courses we play.

Here's an endorsement article for the + handicap one: http://www.tsn.ca/nfl/story/?id=292438

Both of them still look really strong, really strong.

[ztexz]

Even on the Champions Tour he needs to compete with many great ex-PGA tour pros

No kidding.  Here's the Top 10 from the last Champions Tour event in February.

Kirk Tripplett

Olin Browne

Bernhard Langer

Duffy Waldorf

Jay Haas

Michael Allen

Colin Montgomerie

Mark Calcavecchia

Mike Goodes

Billy Andrade

In between all of those guys, there are 39 PGA Tour wins, 74 European Tour wins, and 2 majors.

This notion that you can just practice really hard and be competitive against talent like that is, simply, insane.

[David in FL]

I think he needs to shave off more strokes than that in less than 2.5 years, unless he plans on the Champions tour. I think he's 37 years old already. Even on the Champions Tour he needs to compete with many great ex-PGA tour pros, let's give him another 10,000 hours and another 13 years and I still think he has less than 1% chance of making it on the Champions Tour.

All he's gotta do is be able to compete with Ben Curtis, Paul Casey, Geoff Ogilvy, and Jason Dufner.......all of whom turn 50 the same year he does.

But of course, he'll be practicing to get ready for that, so it should be a piece of cake.

[nevets88]

I think the more interesting question is let's say you transplant Dan to an all year golf playing climate. Start him off with deliberate/deep practice done right, re: short, simple, specific. He has access to all the 5SK instructors :-) or proven instructors (know ball flight laws, high fps video, dplane, Trackman inside out, tons of experience, smart, great golf instinct, all that stuff) who with regularity, take people who've never touched a club who have the potential to do so, to breaking 80 or better in a year or less. Add in Aimpoint, Sam putting lab, all that stuff. How far could he get with 10k hours? If you look at his swing video, he's got hand-eye coordination. Scratch? Good enough to get into a Division III program? D II? D I?

[ztexz]

I think the more interesting question is lets say you transplant Dan to an all year golf playing climate. Start him off with deliberate/deep practice done right, re: short, simple, specific. He has access to a all the 5SK instructors :-) or proven instructors who with regularity, take people who've never touched a club who have the potential to do so, to breaking 80 or better in a year or less. Add in Aimpoint, Sam putting lab, all that stuff. How far could he get with 10k hours? If you look at his swing video, he's got hand-eye coordination. Scratch? Good enough to get into a Division III program? D II? D I?

That is an interesting question.  He could certainly make D2 or D3.  D1? I'd give him a coin flip.  If I had been a bit more serious an athlete, I probably could have made it at my alma matter (D1, decent golf team, but nothing special -- certainly not a Wake Forest/Auburn/etc.), and that was as a 3 handicap.  That's not out of the question if you basically turn your life over to becoming a 3 handicap and have the necessary basic athleticism.

But here's the other thing that's missing from this: the mental toughness to play competitive golf.  Plenty of people have the physical skill to play at a high level -- I'm one of them -- but most of those people don't have the mental toughness to perform under pressure -- again, I'm one of them.

The guy just shot a 98 in his club championship.  I think that right there shows he does have "it"

[nevets88]

That is an interesting question.  He could certainly make D2 or D3.  D1? I'd give him a coin flip.  If I had been a bit more serious an athlete, I probably could have made it at my alma matter (D1, decent golf team, but nothing special -- certainly not a Wake Forest/Auburn/etc.), and that was as a 3 handicap.  That's not out of the question if you basically turn your life over to becoming a 3 handicap and have the necessary basic athleticism.

But here's the other thing that's missing from this: the mental toughness to play competitive golf.  Plenty of people have the physical skill to play at a high level -- I'm one of them -- but most of those people don't have the mental toughness to perform under pressure -- again, I'm one of them.

The guy just shot a 98 in his club championship.  I think that right there shows he does have "it"

That's true. I'm trying to analyze this from as a non-mental and physical viewpoint as much as possible. If a person can attain the physical skills. Whether he/she can not toss his/her cookies on the first tee or a putt that really counts, motivation, etc... that's something else.

A corollary to this is lets say you do this for 100 men and women of average athletic ability and do the above for a year, 2 years. If 80% of them get to a 0-5 index, I wonder what that says about the golf teaching industry as whole. The whole focus has been on Dan, the individual and I understand that, but not much has been said about the theory tested. There's lots of bits dedicated to can the guy do it, but imho, more bits should be dedicated to how he's doing this.

[sopel10]

Does he post all his rounds?  Found him on goflshot, just wondering.

[RandallT]

So how long does it take a golfer to make it through a typical pipeline to make the PGA tour?

My thought is that if Dan were to make a deal with the devil and becomes the "Joe Hardy" of Damn Yankees, except for golf. So now you've got a guy playing in a country club with this immense talent tomorrow.  He won't instantly be granted a PGA card, obviously. He will have to prove himself every step of the way, and that takes time. What is the quickest one could reasonably do that? Would it be through the US Open qualifiers?  Other amateur titles?  There is no more Q School, so he would have to do time on web.com or some other avenue, right? That time needs to be built into his timeline, correct? That makes his quest to get to a low handicap even shorter.

[David in FL]

Monday qualify for next week's tournament, and then win it. You even get into The Masters! Nothin' to it. ;-)

[RandallT]

Monday qualify for next week's tournament, and then win it. You even get into The Masters! Nothin' to it. ;-)

Sounds like a plan! Was just reading about Monday qualifying here ([URL]http://golf.about.com/od/golfterms/g/monday-qualifying.htm[/URL]). Sounds like Dan would need to pre-qualify for the Monday qualifier cuz there are restrictions who can play in Monday qualifiers on PGA tour. Probably depends which event too. Like you said , nuthin' to it.

[RFKFREAK]

Quote:

Originally Posted by David in FL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lihu

However, this is his goal:

"It’s a project in transformation. An experiment in potential and possibilities. Through 10,000 hours of “deliberate practice,” Dan, who currently has minimal golf experience, plans on becoming a professional golfer. But the plan isn’t really about golf: through this process, Dan hopes to prove to himself and others that it’s never too late to start a new pursuit in life.  For a detailed description of the project, please read this blog post: http://thedanplan.com/blog/?p=1090"

Definition of professional golfer:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_golfer

He could still teach, in which case he has some chance of success.

Further down the same page.....

Logging in 30-plus hours a week he will hit the 10,000 hour milestone by December 2016. During this time, Dan plans to develop his skills through deliberate practice, eventually winning amateur events and obtaining his PGA Tour card through a successful appearance in the PGA Tour’s Qualifying School, or “Q-School”.

It's worth noting that "winning amateur events" encompasses a broad spectrum, including winning the "C" flight in his club championship, or the Hogan flight of a local GC AmTour event to the USGA Championships.  Heck, if he can even advance to match play at the U.S. Amateur or make a top-10 at his State Am or the U.S. Mid-Am, I'll be impressed.   Obtaining a PGA Tour card is pretty specific though.....

What does NOT impress me (in this unique circumstance) is a handicap index, until we see some consistent, verifiable tournament results.

Yes, the PGA Tour Card is pretty specific.

True, but as has been said before in this thread, no one is really going to care if it's, "10,000 hours to become a scratch golfer."

Marketability was probably very important to him in this endeavor.

[Lihu]

Originally Posted by RFKFREAK

True, but as has been said before in this thread, no one is really going to care if it's, "10,000 hours to become a scratch golfer."

Marketability was probably very important to him in this endeavor.

Then he was looking at a short term marketability. It seems like a 10,000 hour long project should have some foresight. Now he has a potentially serious credibility issue. Even his 4 handicap is being legitimately challenged by some of the posters.

Truthfully, I think "even" scratch is going to be a push for Dan.

He might be able to teach golf someday. I am sure that with 10,000 hours of training and lessons, he should be learning something that he can pass on to other aspiring golfers. Here's a possible sales pitch he could make "I failed to become a professional due to age blah blah blah, but in 10,000 hours of guided training at $150/hour I can train your child to become Tour Qualified." He can always show his credentials from his website and all the instructors that trained him.