How Do You Think Tiger Will Perform at the 2015 Masters?

[rdsandy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by megarain

One of the few unbiased mechanisms, we have to measure etc (thou, I agree, it can be influenced by the general public), is betting odds.

Bookies gamble too. It's not an unbiased measurement at all. They're looking to maximize their revenue too.

Lines are rarely set to even the money out on both sides. That only happens when bookies don't feel they have a clue which way a game will go.

For example, the Browns played at the Patriots one year. The line opened at -17 or so and 60% or so of the money came in heavy on the Patriots. The line ended up at -13 or -14, but as it kept moving the betting on the Patriots increased to where it ended up at just over 85% on the Patriots.

The Browns won the game outright. The bookies cleaned up.

Bookies move odds to balance their risk. They make money on the spread not on an actual winner. If a bookie's book is unbalanced they take on the same risk as their customers, that's needing to have a particular team/individual win. If their book is unbalanced they usually make offsetting bets with a larger bookie to return their book to a balanced condition.

[iacas]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdsandy

Bookies move odds to balance their risk.

Common myth. They gamble a bit too.

If you know a bookie making just the vig on 50% of the money, they're doing it wrong.

I don't gamble, really, but I know plenty of people who have spent a lot of time really understanding it, and I've learned a few things. They're smart guys, too, and I've checked their sources. It's interesting.

Quick Google led to this on common myths:

Quote:

2. There is balanced action on football betting lines. The goal of the bookmakers is to get equal action for both teams in the game. Generally, around 1/3rd of the NFL schedule will not see much betting, another 3rd will have betting action that is pretty balanced, and the last 3rd will have much more action on one team then another. Usually, how the house does on the one-sided games determine if the sportsbooks will win or lose money.

[megarain]

Hmm.

I have no wish to de-rail this thread, debating what bookies actually do, but .. (As I have spent the last 20 yrs, setting odds, etc, I cant not comment).

I have just joined this forum, and it seems the majority of posters, are from the US. Becos of the illegality of internet sports betting there,betting is radically different to what actually takes place in Europe.

In the US, where sports betting is legal (Nevada/New jersey etc), bookies in the casinos, are largely wimps, taking relatively small bets, at normally a 10% over-round, and they do try to balance books. (One casino in Las vegas, recently laid a bet of $20k on Michigan State at 50/1, to win the NCAA basketball, when they were in the last 16 - and the casino owner, had to approve the bet - they came 2nd - but, at the the time, even thou basketball isnt really followed in Europe, they were almost double those odds).

In Europe, we have whats known as betting exchanges, of which the largest is Betfair. I have used this company for 15 yrs, and know how it operates. Its a public company, with a current share valuation of about $30 billion.It processes about 7 million transactions per day - more than most european stock exchanges, (thou is dwarfed by the Nasdaq - which trades 2 billion transactions per day).

On Betfair, there is a v nominal over-round, and its almost a perfect market, which is only influenced by supply and demand.

This is where I look for odds .. no-where else is as efficient (thou maybe Pinnacle, is close - thou they have 5-7% over-round)

Being on-line, they are v flexible, and betting will open and be fairly liquid, till the last putt drops. I am no spokesperson for Betfair, but, will post the betting volume of the winner, and the price / volume graph, after the event, and we will no doubt see some spikes.

The point of all this, in relation to the pre-ceeding few posts, is that, Tigers odds, have been reducing, due to informed people, taking a view his game has at least not deteriorated. In this perfect market, a move from 55/1, to currently, 36/1, is fairly significant, and I would expect him, to play fairly well.

I am trying to find a way to upload a pic of his volume. But, the key details are so far .. $8m has so far been bet on the Masters, of which $400k is on Tiger, at odds from, as high as 70/1, down to a low of 30/1.

[megarain]

[inthehole]

MC

[megarain]

Just for info, here are the current odds :

What each box means .. is that, taking Tiger for example, u could currently place a bet of $6k at 33/1, - to win $200k, with one click of a mouse - literally, in a micro-second.

[Dave2512]

I've got a pile of dead rotting crow out back that I'll eat if he makes the cut.

Enjoy

[dsc123]

Enjoy

And don't forget!

Video or it did not happen. The Masters Cut is the easiest cut to make in all of the majors.

If Speith and Hoffman weren't running away with this Tiger would be right in the thick of it.

[skydog]

Happy to be wrong here[quote name="Dave2512" url="/t/81181/how-do-you-think-tiger-will-perform-at-the-2015-masters/108#post_1126886"]Enjoy :-P [/quote] :-O Boiled crow here tonight for dinner. Happy to be wrong though, this is the first time I've genuinely rooted for Tiger. (I will say though that I changed my previous tone after seeing Tiger in action this week) [quote name="skydog" url="/t/81181/how-do-you-think-tiger-will-perform-at-the-2015-masters/54#post_1125211"]That crow is looking worse by the day... I won't be surprised either way but for the first time in awhile I don't think the Vegas odds (50/50 he makes cut) are far off. It's anyone's guess. I think we'll see some good signs of life, just a question of whether it can be sustained for a full round and a full week.[/quote]

[Dave2512]

It was pretty cool to watch.

[jamo]

I've got a pile of dead rotting crow out back that I'll eat if he makes the cut.

QFT.

[NJpatbee]

I expected Tiger to make the cut but not contend, which appears to be the case.  He could get a top 10 or 20 finish which would be quite a showing.  He is not playing badly given the amount of competitive golf he has played the last year or so.

[Dave2512]

He was putting for birdie quite a bit. A hot putter and he could have been in there with the T4 T6 guys.

[JerKos]

I was impressed with his golfing this week.  This will help him with the yips.  I'm hoping his health stays with him the rest of the week end.

[iacas]

I expected Tiger to make the cut but not contend, which appears to be the case.  He could get a top 10 or 20 finish which would be quite a showing.  He is not playing badly given the amount of competitive golf he has played the last year or so.

Well, he's inside the top 20 heading to the weekend… it's just a bit of an anomaly that the leader is roughly 37 shots ahead of anyone else. He'd be "contending" if Jordan and Hoffman were human beings this week.

(That's not to say he won't shoot himself out of it or higher up on Saturday. We'll see.)

[newtogolf]

I predicted Top 15 so he's still got a little ways to go.

[Golfingdad]

I predicted Top 15 so he's still got a little ways to go.

I'm confident he's gonna keep playing well and you'll be proven right. (I hope) ;)

[onthehunt526]

Tiger has the stuff right now, if he can bury a few putts, to shoot himself a long way up tomorrow, meaning 63 or 64... I don't think Spieth is going to get too far out into space... if you figure that your nuts... he will not finish 22 under... he's gonna shoot 70 or 71 both days and post 271... Tiger needs a 63 or 64 tomorrow, so maybe he can influence the roars a little on the second nine Sunday...