Donald Trump for president?

[saevel25]

 

Hmm, maybe a bit of perspective from across the sea ;) 

 

[jamo]

Your new Republican delegate leader

[saevel25]

45 minutes ago, jamo said:

Your new Republican delegate leader

It will be interesting once more people drop out. Where does support move? FiveThirtyEight isn't so sure on how well Trump will do in the south. 

[mvmac]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

It will be interesting once more people drop out. Where does support move? 

Hopefully to Kasich but more likely it will help Trump.  

[mcanadiens]

8 hours ago, mvmac said:

Hopefully to Kasich but more likely it will help Trump.  

I'm with you. Kasich seems like the only guy I can vote for with a clear conscience. 

[Mr. Desmond]

Funny or Die Presents "The Art of the Deal"

Starring Johnny Depp

Introduction by Ron Howard

"Language not Suitable-Turn Down the Sound"

http://www.funnyordie.com/trump_movie/

[saevel25]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-to-treat-donald-trump-as-the-front-runner/

4 out of the last 9 candidates who where above 20% in both Iowa & N.H. have gone on to win the GOP nomination. 

 

[Braivo]

12 hours ago, saevel25 said:

It will be interesting once more people drop out. Where does support move? FiveThirtyEight isn't so sure on how well Trump will do in the south. 

It's happening! Tried to tell you in September at Wendy's in Norwalk. ;)

He dominated all demographics. 

Now that he has a W more folks will come out of the woodwork who were originally afraid to show their support. 

The GOP may consolidate around Jeb to make a run at Trump, but it will be a long shot. 

[Mr. Desmond]

When the field whittles down to 2-3, we'll see where those voters go.

[Ernest Jones]

On 2/9/2016 at 11:58 PM, saevel25 said:

 

Hmm, maybe a bit of perspective from across the sea ;) 

 

"I have loads of money and you have none, I should be President." LOL.

 

[saevel25]

Here is an interesting exit poll from Iowa, "Top Candidate Quality"

Can Win: Rubio 44%, Trump 24%, Cruz 22%
Shares my Values: Cruz 38%, Rubio 21%, Trump 5%
Tells it like it is: Trump 66%, Cruz 11%, Rubio 4%

I am still not sold the "Tell it like it is" though he's telling all lies campaign strategy will work in the long run. 

Trump still dominates the "high-school or less" education category. Specifically white, non-college demographic. Typically those with less than a college degree do not have a high voter turn out. 

Questions going forward. Can Trump get people to vote who normally have a lower voting turnout? Can, his lying BS train continue or will it derail? Can trump expand his voting base as other candidates drop out because those votes will have to consolidate somewhere?

 

[Mr. Desmond]

16 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Here is an interesting exit poll from Iowa, "Top Candidate Quality"

Can Win: Rubio 44%, Trump 24%, Cruz 22%
Shares my Values: Cruz 38%, Rubio 21%, Trump 5%
Tells it like it is: Trump 66%, Cruz 11%, Rubio 4%

I am still not sold the "Tell it like it is" though he's telling all lies campaign strategy will work in the long run. 

Trump still dominates the "high-school or less" education category. Specifically white, non-college demographic. Typically those with less than a college degree do not have a high voter turn out. 

Questions going forward. Can Trump get people to vote who normally have a lower voting turnout? Can, his lying BS train continue or will it derail? Can trump expand his voting base as other candidates drop out because those votes will have to consolidate somewhere?

 

I think yesterday's Trump win gives some answers. He performs well with those making $50k and less, whether GOP or Dem.

In Trump's recent interviews, he is less bombastic, more empathetic ... the man is learning quickly.

Rubio's robotic, repetitive, debacle of a performance in the last debate throws out Iowa results.

[newtogolf]

People are sick of politicians, especially those they view as corrupt (which is most of them). The results in NH back up that sentiment by having Trump and Bernie as outright winners.  I believe Kasich benefitted from Rand Paul dropping out and not being viewed as "corrupt" as the others.

I'm shocked Bloomberg hasn't entered the fray yet as it's pretty clear Hillary is losing steam and her mismanagement of Benghazi and her e-mail server is catching up with her.

[Braivo]

3 hours ago, Mr. Desmond said:

I think yesterday's Trump win gives some answers. He performs well with those making $50k and less, whether GOP or Dem.

In Trump's recent interviews, he is less bombastic, more empathetic ... the man is learning quickly.

Rubio's robotic, repetitive, debacle of a performance in the last debate throws out Iowa results.

Trump carried every demographic handily, including high income brackets and highly educated groups. 

Iowa is a very poor indicator of national sentiment. 

As you said, Trump is incredibly smart. He is adjusting his strategy very quickly. He learned a lot from Iowa. 

He represents the anti-establishment Republicans, and even anti-establishment, anti-socialist democrats are going his way. 

[jbishop15]

I sincerely hope Trump wins the nomination. It'd be a stress-free election season for me. 

[saevel25]

10 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Iowa is a very poor indicator of national sentiment. 

So is New Hampshire. As shown that only 4 out of 9 candidates who went +20% in both Iowa and New Hampshire go on to win the GOP Primary. 

[Braivo]

9 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

So is New Hampshire. As shown that only 4 out of 9 candidates who went +20% in both Iowa and New Hampshire go on to win the GOP Primary. 

That's like saying a guy bats .400 when it's a full moon on a Friday. 

13 of the last 16 winners in NH have gone on to win the GOP nomination, and this was a 19 point blowout. 

[saevel25]

Just now, Braivo said:

That's like saying a guy bats .400 when it's a full moon on a Friday. 

13 of the last 16 winners in NH have gone on to win the GOP nomination, and this was a 19 point blowout. 

Why would you ever think this is anything typical like those situations. You are taking a complete outlier year and assuming it will work the same.