Is it possible to play off scratch from 30 in 18 months?

[Mjrowe1]

On 9 December 2015 at 5:29 PM, Rainmaker said:

That's awesome progress.  Can you make it scratch in 10 months . .sure.  Statistically speaking it's not likely but it depends on your natural talent and you obviously have some.  You're obviously practicing in a way that is effective, too.  If I were you, I wouldn't necessarily worry about making scratch in X number of months . .just keep doing what you're doing until you stop steadily improving.  If you're not already, take a lesson or two . .some people are naturally athletic enough to shoot pretty decently with poor technique but it's limiting to their overall progress.  Good luck!   

 

Before I had my handicap I had played a handful of times and smashed balls at te range with my old man maybe 1-2 times per year with no aim but to belt the skin off it. Since I got my handicap I have dedicated myself somewhat practicing maybe 2 times a week and playing 1-2 times a week except over winter as here in Melbourne it is stupid cold and wet and not enjoyable at all.

I now have a coach Sandy Jamieson who coaches a few pros like Jarrod Lyle. He aim is to have me off low single digits in a short time as I have a fair bit of length off the tee, I am just going through a bit of a swing change to try straighten me up. My average off the tee would be 230-240 meters.

I love that thread on practice time that someone posted and will be giving it a go straight away.

today we played parr at commonwealth and I walked away -1 which I was pretty happy about. Kingston Heath tomorrow, wish me luck.

[Pretzel]

33 minutes ago, Mjrowe1 said:

Today we played parr at commonwealth and I walked away -1 which I was pretty happy about. Kingston Heath tomorrow, wish me luck.

So, assuming that the slope/CR are set in such a way that your differential is approximately the difference between par your score, that would mean you had a differential of approximately +1 on the course. This would give you a net differential of -13 or so, meaning the odds of you actually shooting a round of one under par at that time (according to the USGA, table can be found HERE) are between 1/37,000 and 1/84,300. The truth is it's likely even worse odds, because the table only goes as far as a net differential of -10.

I'm sorry, but that really doesn't add up for a 13.7 handicap to ever shoot a score like this. Your best bet to truly improve would be for you to be honest, both with yourself and others, in order to receive the most useful information and help for you.

[Mjrowe1]

Wow that's too many numbers for me buddy, but good on you for giving me that. Par is a scoring system somewhat like stableford but you get a half for a net par, a + for a net birdie and a - for a net bogie. One thing I am with myself and everyone else around me is honest, the game is full of cheats and it's something I don't like at all. 

Thanks for you educational post @Pretzel I love a good numbers guy. Keep chipping away at your game, cheers 

[Pretzel]

6 minutes ago, Mjrowe1 said:

Wow that's too many numbers for me buddy, but good on you for giving me that. Par is a scoring system somewhat like stableford but you get a half for a net par, a + for a net birdie and a - for a net bogie. One thing I am with myself and everyone else around me is honest, the game is full of cheats and it's something I don't like at all. 

Thanks for you educational post @Pretzel I love a good numbers guy. Keep chipping away at your game, cheers 

Ah, I was under the assumption that you were referring to "parr" as a course name. Since you didn't capitalize the course's name, as well as spelling the word with two r's, threw me off as to it being a reference to the type of game you were playing rather than the specific course you played (there's a course I play called "Heritage at Westmoor" so I assumed it was a naming scheme for a course similar to that). My apologies.

[natureboy]

4 hours ago, Mjrowe1 said:

Before I had my handicap I had played a handful of times and smashed balls at te range with my old man maybe 1-2 times per year with no aim but to belt the skin off it. Since I got my handicap I have dedicated myself somewhat practicing maybe 2 times a week and playing 1-2 times a week except over winter as here in Melbourne it is stupid cold and wet and not enjoyable at all.

Hah, I wish I had your winter weather. I bet you get lots of playable days. You should at the very least be out putting and doing short game work as much as you can and hitting from heated stalls or indoors to keep you swing sharp if you are serious about your goal.

Assuming your practice estimates are correct at about 10 hours per week since January then you appear to be on a prodigious curve toward +3 pro territory (if you dedicate yourself for many years) - provided you sustain the progress long enough which is always key.

As far as your scratch goal, a zero handicap is probably likely around 4000 hours of cumulative practice on your curve. At the time you set your goal you had ~ 160 and now you have 480 hours. You better up the practice time if you want to make it 'on schedule'. This works out to about 88 hours a week in your remaining 10 months. Assuming you are in school, this seems unlikely. But don't get frustrated by the slow progress, you have demonstrated considerable talent. Work toward building up a competitive game for school teams as a shorter-term goal.

Edited December 10, 2015 by natureboy

[inthehole]

Depending on your personal skill set, you will hit a plateau.    My progress has been steady (from a 36 to 11 in 5 years), but where I'm at now, improvement has slowed significantly.    With the available time I have, I would much rather play than practice, so I don't see my hcp getting much lower ... just depends where your natural plateau is.

[Lihu]

6 hours ago, Mjrowe1 said:

 

Before I had my handicap I had played a handful of times and smashed balls at te range with my old man maybe 1-2 times per year with no aim but to belt the skin off it. Since I got my handicap I have dedicated myself somewhat practicing maybe 2 times a week and playing 1-2 times a week except over winter as here in Melbourne it is stupid cold and wet and not enjoyable at all.

I now have a coach Sandy Jamieson who coaches a few pros like Jarrod Lyle. He aim is to have me off low single digits in a short time as I have a fair bit of length off the tee, I am just going through a bit of a swing change to try straighten me up. My average off the tee would be 230-240 meters.

I love that thread on practice time that someone posted and will be giving it a go straight away.

today we played parr at commonwealth and I walked away -1 which I was pretty happy about. Kingston Heath tomorrow, wish me luck.

 

Most of the scratch golfers I know drive in the same range as you. If you are consistently in that range that's very good. Some golfers hit 200 yards on some drives hitting a tree or something then 280 on others, and that's not really conducive to scratch golf.

I can see you getting into the single digits pretty quickly, but there are a lot things to learn to get down to the low single digits. Not learn so much as become comfortable with odd situations. That learning takes a lot more time that you are currently dedicating.

Play a lot! Good luck.

[nevets88]

On 12/9/2015 at 4:35 AM, Mjrowe1 said:

Thanks for the feed back and advice guys, I'm not very forum savy so you'll have to bare with me. I'm interested in this Dan Plan, how is he going? What were he's goals? Is he achieving what he set out to do?

as for me, how do I keep you up to date with my progress, training, coarses I play? I'm currently a member at Commonwealth golf club in Melbourne on the Sandbelt, we have the Vic amature championships on at the moment, the place is in ripping condition. Even better I get to play at Kingston Heath on Friday.

Start a thread in the Member Swings forum. There are some very good pros and knowledgable players on the site who can provide guide you with your swing progress.

http://thesandtrap.com/forums/forum/13-member-swings/

Get Game Golf and post your account for people to keep track of your scores. Good luck!

[Lihu]

2 hours ago, inthehole said:

Depending on your personal skill set, you will hit a plateau.    My progress has been steady (from a 36 to 11 in 5 years), but where I'm at now, improvement has slowed significantly.    With the available time I have, I would much rather play than practice, so I don't see my hcp getting much lower ... just depends where your natural plateau is.

You already play at a pretty decent level. Most people play worse. . .

[inthehole]

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

You already play at a pretty decent level. Most people play worse. . .

true - not complaining, just being realistic with regard to my natural plateau.   There's always room for improvement - GIR and short putting I hope will improve over time given more reps/course time.   

[Dave2512]

At least you're realistic. My experience is 10-12ish is the point of great deception. You have played better golf than the average hacker out there and can smell single digits but it's tough to make the next level.

For us on the US system imagine having to break 80 just to get something into your 10 best. Imagine breaking 80 on some courses and not having it get into your 10 best. Progress moving down starts to slow. Every differential in my 10 best is 8.9 or better. All those 80-84 scores I previous thought were a good day do nothing for me now, except move better scores out of the 20.

[natureboy]

I am predicting that you will get to around a 10 or maybe crack the high single digits by the end of your 18 months at your current rate of practice. You may not notice it, but you are already likely in the zone of diminishing returns on your accumulated time so shaving strokes will start to get tougher and tougher - but you can possibly be a pro-level golfer in time if you stick with it.

Enjoy the fact that you breezed to where you are while some of us struggle to maybe never reach it - and keep plugging away. Also, since you are young and maybe not fixated on pro golf yet do some other sports to cross-train and avoid overuse golf injuries. Many, many pros come up through the college ranks - even Tiger and it could get you a scholarship somewhere nice. Smart that you have a pro-level coach now.

[Lihu]

39 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

At least you're realistic. My experience is 10-12ish is the point of great deception. You have played better golf than the average hacker out there and can smell single digits but it's tough to make the next level.

For us on the US system imagine having to break 80 just to get something into your 10 best. Imagine breaking 80 on some courses and not having it get into your 10 best. Progress moving down starts to slow. Every differential in my 10 best is 8.9 or better. All those 80-84 scores I previous thought were a good day do nothing for me now, except move better scores out of the 20.

In some ways, I think the new proposed system will be better and easier to maintain a lower handicap. It gives you a lot more "practice rounds" than the current system "allows".

Yeah, it's easy to be deceived by better than bad playing. However, it's especially gratifying when a 10-12ish plays a single digit player that he doesn't know and happen to be "on" at the time, and make them sweat a little bit.

 

1 hour ago, inthehole said:

true - not complaining, just being realistic with regard to my natural plateau.   There's always room for improvement - GIR and short putting I hope will improve over time given more reps/course time.   

True, and it's not so bad at this point. . .I'm not clawing around trying to improve my game that much. If it improves, it improves. If not, no biggie. . .

I kind of enjoy waiting on other people rather than having other people waiting on me.

 

 

4 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I am predicting that you will get to around a 10 or maybe crack the high single digits by the end of your 18 months at your current rate of practice. You may not notice it, but you are already likely in the zone of diminishing returns on your accumulated time so shaving strokes will start to get tougher and tougher - but you can possibly be a pro-level golfer in time if you stick with it.

Enjoy the fact that you breezed to where you are while some of us struggle to maybe never reach it - and keep plugging away. Also, since you are young and maybe not fixated on pro golf yet do some other sports to cross-train and avoid overuse golf injuries. Many, many pros come up through the college ranks - even Tiger and it could get you a scholarship somewhere nice. Smart that you have a pro-level coach now.

I predict that he'll make scratch, but not in 10 months. . .

[natureboy]

22 minutes ago, Lihu said:

I predict that he'll make scratch, but not in 10 months. . .

I expect you are fixated on his driving distance as a limiting factor, but I think that with time (he's only been really playing for less than a year) that he will add distance and consistency and has potential to get into pro-level (>+2) HCP range. If he doesn't ad distance as his swing (and body) develops, then I agree with you.

On his current practice schedule, I'd guesstimate 8 years to scratch and ~ +2 in 16 years. But but I expect he'll get more serious and increase practice to accelerate his progress.

Edited December 10, 2015 by natureboy

[Lihu]

7 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I expect you are fixated on his driving distance as a limiting factor, but I expect that with time (he's only been really playing for less than a year) that he will add distance and consistency and has potential to get into pro-level (>+2) HCP range. If he doesn't ad distance as his swing (and body) develops, then I agree with you.

Yes, but at the same time we don't know how old is the OP. He could possibly get better? The only data point I am basing this assertion off of is that an average +4 handicap carries a driver 275 yards and hits pretty straight.

[natureboy]

8 minutes ago, Lihu said:

Yes, but at the same time we don't know how old is the OP. He could possibly get better? The only data point I am basing this assertion off of is that an average +4 handicap carries a driver 275 yards and hits pretty straight.

He mentions a 'coach' rather than going for golf instruction so he sounds like a young guy in 'player development' stage, but I could be wrong.

[shanksalot]

 I have never heard of anyone going from 30 to scratch in 18 months. Getting to single digits from 30 is hard enough. The biggest jump is from 3-5 to scratch from what I have heard over the years. However good luck in your endeavor. 

[sjduffers]

2 hours ago, natureboy said:

I expect you are fixated on his driving distance as a limiting factor, but I think that with time (he's only been really playing for less than a year) that he will add distance and consistency and has potential to get into pro-level (>+2) HCP range. If he doesn't ad distance as his swing (and body) develops, then I agree with you.

Note that the OP mentioned averaging (probably on good drives only) 230-240 meters, so that's 250-265 yards, pretty long already, and not a limitation for a scratch golfer who is expecting to average around 250 yds according to the USGA definition of a scratch golfer.

Edited December 10, 2015 by sjduffers