What do you define as a chance at birdie?

[Lihu]

I was kind of pondering this question lately. If you get within 10 feet of the pin, that's pretty much a legitimate birdie putt while a 100 foot lag putt uphill over 2 tiers is "not" in my mind. I would answer is 30 feet and in even though I almost never make a 30 foot putt on the course.

Just wondering what you consider a legitimate birdie chance?

[Abu3baid]

My opinion is that anything over 10 isn't really a realistic birdie putt.. I mean what are the percentages for pros at >10 feet?  

While I do feel I should never bogie a hole after a GIR..  

[Club Rat]

Any chance to make bird to me would be realistic even when I'm inside 100 yards. Wedges are just as good a weapon as a putter!

Look at how often Pro's chip in or hole out bunker shots.....

Guys always say "get it close" I reply "Why screw around, knock it in"

Of course, short putts have a higher percentage. But, I try to be positive in my approach to playing.

I've done it before, it can happen again....... is my attitude when playing........ make the game fun with higher expectations......

[Abu3baid]

14 minutes ago, Club Rat said:

Any chance to make bird to me would be realistic even when I'm inside 100 yards. Wedges are just as good a weapon as a putter!

Look at how often Pro's chip in or hole out bunker shots.....

Guys always say "get it close" I reply "Why screw around, knock it in"

Of course, short putts have a higher percentage. But, I try to be positive in my approach to playing.

I've done it before, it can happen again....... is my attitude when playing........ make the game fun with higher expectations......

So pros really chip in and hole out from bunkers that often?

No one is saying don't have a positive attitude, but do you really have a realistic expectation of getting a birdi with a 40 foot putt?  

[saevel25]

I would say anything that is inside your average proximity for your long game. So if you average 40ft to the pin anything inside of that. For a high handicapper that might be anywhere on the green. 

[Club Rat]

1 minute ago, Abu3baid said:

but do you really have a realistic expectation of getting a birdi with a 40 foot putt

Yes I do, anytime I have the flat stick in my hand. Not saying I make every putt, but I've rolled in more than my share of long putts.

Positive, think positive......

It also helps that I've spent endless hours on practice greens through the years.

I'll have days where I've made over 100 feet or more of putts in a round. They seem to happen in spurts where I'll make everything I look at.

Those days are fun.

[Abu3baid]

8 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I would say anything that is inside your average proximity for your long game. So if you average 40ft to the pin anything inside of that. For a high handicapper that might be anywhere on the green. 

If someone averages 40ft to the pin, you really think that person should have a realistic expectation that he has a chance at birdi at 30ft?  

1 minute ago, Club Rat said:

Yes I do, anytime I have the flat stick in my hand. Not saying I make every putt, but I've rolled in more than my share of long putts.

Positive, think positive......

It also helps that I've spent endless hours on practice greens through the years.

I'll have days where I've made over 100 feet or more of putts in a round. They seem to happen in spurts where I'll make everything I look at.

Those days are fun.

I am more inclined to think that you only remember the ones you hit, but from a percentage stand point what do you think you are sinking from 40ft?  5%?  That's not even a fighting chance never mind an expectation to sink it for birdi.

again, this has nothing to do with being positive, but realistic.

[saevel25]

Sure. It's subjective anyways 

[Patch]

I went with anything on the green in regulation. In my game, luck is always factor. 

[Abu3baid]

4 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Sure. It's subjective anyways 

Statistics are not though..  30 feet away you are delusional in my opinion if you really think you have a chance at birdi..

At 30 feet pros are at 7% 1 putt and 5% 3 putt..  

I think golfers in general overestimate their putting prowess.

[Gunther]

I voted inside 20 feet.  I actually made 3 birdie putts Thursday from 20, 12, and 10. That's not common for me, don't get me wrong, especially given that I missed a 2' par putt that day as well, but I generally like my chances from 20 feet and in.  From 30' I'm just trying to lag it close.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Gunther

[jbishop15]

I voted 10 feet. I'm always trying to make it, but I'm usually surprised if it goes in from over 10 feet. 

[DrvFrShow]

I sank 1 putt from 18 feet last year for an eagle. My birdie putts were all from inside 10 feet.

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, Abu3baid said:

Statistics are not though..  30 feet away you are delusional in my opinion if you really think you have a chance at birdi..

At 30 feet pros are at 7% 1 putt and 5% 3 putt..  

I think golfers in general overestimate their putting prowess.

Actually it's probably the opposite. Since putting is skill that amateurs are closest to PGA Tour players I think many of them underestimate how good they are because the TV shows primarily a good number of putts made over missed putts. 

7% is still a chance of making a birdie 

Again why I say subjective because at what level do you classify fit it as a chance. If I am on the green, I think I have a shot at making the birdie. 

Do you think 50%, so inside of 8 ft? 
How about 25% chance at 15 ft? 
13% at 20 ft? 

[Dave325]

Putting is something that I really have problems with.... even the short ones. So, I voted under 10 feet. I have had a lot of GIRs that ended in a bogey... terrible (and frustrating too). In fact, I have only had 2 eagles in my lifetime. The first one was about pitch from about 40 feet off the green that went in the hole on a par 5. The second was a 6-iron... second shot on a par 4 that ran up the green and fell in the hole... let's just say that the hole got in the way of the ball. That one was a couple years ago. So, lets say that I do much better when the putter stays in the bag. .... I guess that is one reason to spend more time with this club and work out the kinks. Maybe there just might be more birdies. 

[Golfingdad]

3 hours ago, Lihu said:

I was kind of pondering this question lately. If you get within 10 feet of the pin, that's pretty much a legitimate birdie putt while a 100 foot lag putt uphill over 2 tiers is "not" in my mind. I would answer is 30 feet and in even though I almost never make a 30 foot putt on the course.

Just wondering what you consider a legitimate birdie chance?

I voted the same as you - inside of 30 feet is a legitimate birdie CHANCE.  (Note to Eyad and others , he asked about chance, not probability) ;)

Although it's not really about distances for me, but more rather based on how much of a "sure thing" a two putt is.  If I'm not really concerned with missing the next putt then I'm concentrating only on making the current one.  The average distance where that changes is probably around 25 feet on most greens. I rounded up. :P

[rkim291968]

Where is the option for < 5 feet?   That's what I call a realistic birdie shot.  

[jamo]

4 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

I voted the same as you - inside of 30 feet is a legitimate birdie CHANCE.  (Note to Eyad and others , he asked about chance, not probability) ;)

Although it's not really about distances for me, but more rather based on how much of a "sure thing" a two putt is.  If I'm not really concerned with missing the next putt then I'm concentrating only on making the current one.  The average distance where that changes is probably around 25 feet on most greens. I rounded up. :P

This is what I'd say. It's a CHANCE. 25-30 is about what I'd say. 

(Anything longer is still obviously a chance by that definition but ... I dunno. 25-30 seems right. )