Second Shot Par 5 Third at Seneca Hickory Stick - Strategy?

[ev780]

Depends on a ton of things. Stroke play or match play? Where are you in relation to the field or your opponent? Casual round or tournament? How much money is on the line? Do you have a 200 yrd carry club? How are you swinging today? Is that a brand new Pro V1 laying on the fairway? 

I had a match play in a kind of Ryder cup thing last fall where this was nearly the exact scenario except no water in front only on golfer left of green. My opponent was in a hazard but playable and I had a one up lead. Layed up so I had a full wedge. Put it within 15 feet and easy two put for the half and the win.

Other times if i needed to make up some ground or try and intimidate an opponent I would have gone for it! 

[Wally Fairway]

I agree with ev780; if I was "just" playing then I go for it. But in a match, tournament or money game it would depend on the circumstances. Seeing how this is the third hole, I'm likely to go for it depending on the lie.

Likely a 19° or 22° hybrid, it would be a stretch to hit 4i, and I'd rather be a little long than short

Edited March 17, 2016 by Wally Fairway

[9wood]

12 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

looking at the green area a little more closely (on bluegolf.com - handy website)

Like that site - that's for bringing it to my attention

[Lazarus]

Unless I have a bad lie, big head wind or protecting a lead with money against my pals I'll go for it. I probably get in big trouble 2/10 times from there.

[JetFan1983]

Given how my swing is right now, I'd aim at the left green side bunker, choke down on a 3-wood and try to play a 220 yard cut shot with it.* I want to miss long obviously. The course designer was nice enough to leave me what appears to be a generous collection area behind the green as well, which I think further reduces some of the risk in this play. That'd be a great spot for me to end up, and I'd have a great look at an eagle chip in maybe if I'm lucky. 

I can't really see myself laying up in any scenario from 218 in the middle of the fairway, besides weather related issues. 

 

*Fades are my stock shot, so I'm not attempting anything weird here

[Fourputt]

Even if I move all the way up to the green tees (442 yards), at that low elevation its likely an automatic layup.  The only difference between the black tee and green tee for me is the ease of playing the layup.  Even from the green tee I'd probably have 200-220 depending on how my drive went, and that means 5 wood to clear the water.  Unless the green is very soft, I'd end up over the back, and the diagram on BlueGolf.com shows some bushes or trees back there.  I'm a lot better off laying up toward the end of the fairway so I only have to play across the creek, not the pond - less chance of a mishit landing in the drink.

[pganapathy]

From a distance perspective, I can reach the green in two.  However, I would look at various factors before deciding.

How am I hitting my long clubs that day.

Is the bail out area sufficient for me to gamble (on a course I don't know, I tend to err on the side of caution and lay up).

Is my scrambling good that day because I would rarely expect the ball to stop on the green.

Do I need to go for it due to the match circumstances or is playing safe the smarter bet.

What happens if I mishit and go into the water.  Do I have to take stroke and distance or is there a reasonably short and easy 4th shot to the green.

Is there a great deal of risk around the green (i.e pot bunkers, thick rough etc) which would make a lay-up more sensible.

So depending on circumstances I would make a call.  Probably go for it if I am playing well

[Lihu]

10 minutes ago, pganapathy said:

From a distance perspective, I can reach the green in two.  However, I would look at various factors before deciding.

How am I hitting my long clubs that day.

Is the bail out area sufficient for me to gamble (on a course I don't know, I tend to err on the side of caution and lay up).

Is my scrambling good that day because I would rarely expect the ball to stop on the green.

Do I need to go for it due to the match circumstances or is playing safe the smarter bet.

What happens if I mishit and go into the water.  Do I have to take stroke and distance or is there a reasonably short and easy 4th shot to the green.

Is there a great deal of risk around the green (i.e pot bunkers, thick rough etc) which would make a lay-up more sensible.

So depending on circumstances I would make a call.  Probably go for it if I am playing well

 

52 minutes ago, ev780 said:

Depends on a ton of things. Stroke play or match play? Where are you in relation to the field or your opponent? Casual round or tournament? How much money is on the line? Do you have a 200 yrd carry club? How are you swinging today? Is that a brand new Pro V1 laying on the fairway? 

I had a match play in a kind of Ryder cup thing last fall where this was nearly the exact scenario except no water in front only on golfer left of green. My opponent was in a hazard but playable and I had a one up lead. Layed up so I had a full wedge. Put it within 15 feet and easy two put for the half and the win.

Other times if i needed to make up some ground or try and intimidate an opponent I would have gone for it! 

 

49 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I agree with ev780; if I was "just" playing then I go for it. But in a match, tournament or money game it would depend on the circumstances. Seeing how this is the third hole, I'm likely to go for it depending on the lie.

Likely a 19° or 22° hybrid, it would be a stretch to hit 4i, and I'd rather be a little long than short

 

If you have to think too hard about it, I would take the safer route. Blue tees and get the green in 3 shots, which is why this is a par 5.

The issue for me is I don't really see a nice layup alternative other than playing for par?

Anywhere right and long (but not enough) is going in the water. Left narrows down too much.

If you hit long enough to carry via the blue line, then that's the simplest solution. Otherwise, I would play black*** or blue tees and follow the orange-yellow path for a par play.

 

***Not really, I'd leave the tips for those who can drive 275 on average.

[DrvFrShow]

This is the third hole..... there are two scenarios. First casual round.

#1 I'm playing from the white tees. But in any event my drive is headed toward that large fairway bunker about half way to the hole, and if the fairway is relatively firm but not hard or soft, and we're in summer conditions, I'll assume that I get a good drive around 237 to 240 yds. 

#2 To make it across on my second shot, I need to carry it 182 yds. Being a bogey golfer, it will depend upon how I'm playing that day. If I have a good lie and I'm hitting the ball well, I'll pull out my hybrid and let it fly. If I'm playing mediocre, I'll take out my 8 iron and hit the ball down the fairway to the left so I will be hitting over the narrowest point leaving about a 50 yd wedge shot onto the green.

Second - tournament.

I'm playing the forward tees. - This is where my tournaments play. Sorry guys. I'm a woman and over 60.

#1 I hit my tee shot and talk to the ball "come back! come back!" it barely stays out of the fairway bunker on the right but remains in the short grass toward the middle of the fairway.

#2 I see that I need 155 yds to clear the water. I take out a 7 iron (this is a 5 iron with a 7 stamped on it) and aim slightly right of center. Being as this is still morning and probably still pretty early, I catch the ball heavy, drop an f-bomb under my breath, and the ball travels about 120 yds splashing right in the middle of the hazard.

#4 I drop a ball in a flat area on the short grass in line of where it crossed the hazard line and the flag, take out my 64 wedge and pitch it about 50 yds over the water onto the green, stopping it almost dead near the flag.

#5 I one putt for par.

 

[Hardspoon]

Putting aside that I wouldn't be playing from those tees, I'd still be going for the green from the position indicated almost every time.  I'd take my 4w, which on a solid shot carries about 210, and aim at the left edge of the green so that there is less water in my Shot Zone (a miss right - my primary miss - is on the green, and a miss left has only a small chance of hitting the little creek portion).

Miss long, no big deal.  Miss short...problems, but since I'm aiming left, there is less water in play.

[vangator]

I could clear the water with a solid 4 iron which goes pretty straight, but that is at my carry limit and would be hard to stop, since it would be coming in low.  I have a 5 wood which would give me the height to clear and stop, but I mainly hit it right to left. I would have to aim for the trees on the right and hope it wouldn't over draw into the water on the left side of the green.

After all that, I'd lay up.  I'm typically a "lay up guy" if there is too much trouble. 

[bkuehn1952]

I would likely be playing the "White" tees at 6,331 yards (70.4/126).  If the course was reasonably firm I might be able to handle the next tee "Blue" at 6,670 yards.  

On this particular hole, I can't see me going for it in 2.  I don't carry the ball far enough to make the required shot.  Lay up and try to make birdie with a wedge & putter [leaving the flag stick in if I am chipping my 4th shot ;) ].  

[14ledo81]

I can't reliably carry the water.  I'm gonna lay up.

[No Mulligans]

I'm not one of the better players but I'd like to chime in.  To me this is a math question.

Let's say I tee'd it forward and for my second shot I have 200 yds to the pin.  Here are my stats for 200 yd approach shots.  And below that is a simplified probability calculation (I'm not going to try to come up with all the scenarios as I don't think it would change the result).  Assumptions: 1) If I make it over the hazard it will take me on average 1.8 more strokes to get in the hole, 2) If I lay up (or drop), I'll make it over the hazard and it will take me 1.6 more strokes to get in the hole (I'll be closer to the hole on average).

With these assumptions it will take on average 4.3 strokes from that point if I "Go for it", and it will take on average 3.8 additional strokes if I "Don't go for it".  I lay up.

I'd like to add that you're percentages of being able to clear the hazard don't have to be very high to warrant going for it.  Under my assumptions, 50/50 was the break-even.  I changed the don't go for it percentages to 95/5 as this is a better golfer.

[Jakester23]

After reading LSW  Id go for it every time.  A 200 carry is a 4h which Im confident in hitting.  Also the chip from over the water(if you miss the green) is going to be easier than a pitch or flighted shot from the fairway when you layup.   From the picture it looks  the left side is pretty safe.  It apperars the water is pretty narrow on that side of the green.

[freshmanUTA]

That's a 4 iron for me. Id go for it as my 4 iron is my "safety" club. I'm just confident with it. I'd probably leave myself a 20 foot putt for eagle assuming I don't go long.

[Lihu]

2 hours ago, No Mulligans said:

I'm not one of the better players but I'd like to chime in.  To me this is a math question.

Let's say I tee'd it forward and for my second shot I have 200 yds to the pin.  Here are my stats for 200 yd approach shots.  And below that is a simplified probability calculation (I'm not going to try to come up with all the scenarios as I don't think it would change the result).  Assumptions: 1) If I make it over the hazard it will take me on average 1.8 more strokes to get in the hole, 2) If I lay up (or drop), I'll make it over the hazard and it will take me 1.6 more strokes to get in the hole (I'll be closer to the hole on average).

With these assumptions it will take on average 4.3 strokes from that point if I "Go for it", and it will take on average 3.8 additional strokes if I "Don't go for it".  I lay up.

Nice analysis!

Here's mine from the blue tees based upon a median drive or better. So, I get to "Go for it".

200-225 yard approaches: https://www.gamegolf.com/player/lihu/insights/approach-the-green/share/0f0dc44848

My outside 200 covers stuff in the 250 yard range or something like that and is 68% short.I see that my outside 250 is 75% short, not surprising

[sirhacksalot]

Hit two in the water, drop 3, blade 4 over the green, Duff the chip. Then 3 putt from the fringe. Cry,cuss and  then tell my playing partner that " If I could just get the mental game , I could be scratch."