What Would a PGA Tour Player Shoot at Your Home Course?

[MuniGrit]

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/safeway-open/past-results.2008.html

Not my home track but one I play a lot.

[iacas]

2 hours ago, DeadMan said:

Interesting counterpoint to this. A golfer who missed out on a playoff by one stroke in US Open local qualifying came and played the back 9 of my course. It's rated 35.2/130. He shot a 32 (4 under par). Maybe a PGA Tour pro would be going closer to 60.

Unlikely.

Consider that the scoring for a PGA Tour player on par threes is about 3.03 or something. It's basically 3.

So that puts them at 54 if they have 18 par 3s.

Give them a birdie on EVERY par five. They might eagle some, but they might also par one if they hit a loose drive or something. They're up to 58, and that's with 14 par 3s and 4 par fives.

Ten of those par threes are actually par fours. They may have a wedge in their hands, but PGA Tour players average 2.65 from about 50 yards out in the fairway.

SO… if they can par the par threes (12 strokes), birdie all four par fives (20 strokes), and hit every tee shot on the par fours to 50 yards out in the fairway*, that's 10 * 2.65 + 10 (the tee shots), or 36.5.

36.5 + 12 + 20 = 68.5.

* That's only if they can hit it to 50 yards in the fairway every time. They'll drive some shorter par fours, but they'll also find the rough sometimes, or have 100 yards in one some holes… etc.

That also doesn't account for the fact that some of the greens and conditions will be worse than they're used to.

PGA Tour pros can get hot, absolutely. The numbers above are averages. But 60? You're not appreciating how difficult it is to shoot a 59 or 60. Even with 18 par threes, you're almost setting a baseline of an average of 54.

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Unlikely.

Consider that the scoring for a PGA Tour player on par threes is about 3.03 or something. It's basically 3.

So that puts them at 54 if they have 18 par 3s.

Give them a birdie on EVERY par five. They might eagle some, but they might also par one if they hit a loose drive or something. They're up to 58, and that's with 14 par 3s and 4 par fives.

Ten of those par threes are actually par fours. They may have a wedge in their hands, but PGA Tour players average 2.65 from about 50 yards out in the fairway.

SO… if they can par the par threes (12 strokes), birdie all four par fives (20 strokes), and hit every tee shot on the par fours to 50 yards out in the fairway*, that's 10 * 2.65 + 10 (the tee shots), or 36.5.

36.5 + 12 + 20 = 68.5.

* That's only if they can hit it to 50 yards in the fairway every time. They'll drive some shorter par fours, but they'll also find the rough sometimes, or have 100 yards in one some holes… etc.

That also doesn't account for the fact that some of the greens and conditions will be worse than they're used to.

PGA Tour pros can get hot, absolutely. The numbers above are averages. But 60? You're not appreciating how difficult it is to shoot a 59 or 60. Even with 18 par threes, you're almost setting a baseline of an average of 54.

Damn. @iacas you're good. You need your own golf show. That's just nice tight post there.

[DeadMan]

2 hours ago, iacas said:

Unlikely.

Consider that the scoring for a PGA Tour player on par threes is about 3.03 or something. It's basically 3.

So that puts them at 54 if they have 18 par 3s.

Give them a birdie on EVERY par five. They might eagle some, but they might also par one if they hit a loose drive or something. They're up to 58, and that's with 14 par 3s and 4 par fives.

Ten of those par threes are actually par fours. They may have a wedge in their hands, but PGA Tour players average 2.65 from about 50 yards out in the fairway.

SO… if they can par the par threes (12 strokes), birdie all four par fives (20 strokes), and hit every tee shot on the par fours to 50 yards out in the fairway*, that's 10 * 2.65 + 10 (the tee shots), or 36.5.

36.5 + 12 + 20 = 68.5.

* That's only if they can hit it to 50 yards in the fairway every time. They'll drive some shorter par fours, but they'll also find the rough sometimes, or have 100 yards in one some holes… etc.

That also doesn't account for the fact that some of the greens and conditions will be worse than they're used to.

PGA Tour pros can get hot, absolutely. The numbers above are averages. But 60? You're not appreciating how difficult it is to shoot a 59 or 60. Even with 18 par threes, you're almost setting a baseline of an average of 54.

For what it's worth, I meant they'd score closer to 60 than 68 (so that means 63 or less). But, yeah, you're probably right. I'm probably over reacting to one really good 9 holes by a pretty good golfer. For what it's worth, when we have CGA events at my course, the winning score is normally 65 or below. But that's a little different from an average PGA Tour pro showing up not knowing the course and playing.

[Dave2512]

Just talked to a former pro last week, he played some Nike events back in the day. He earned a whopping $2700 in the 7 events he played and made 3 cuts. He gets out about 5-10 times a year with little practice and still plays to a +3. He shot 67 at a local course rated 70.1/126 one up from the back because he was playing with lesser skilled co-workers for giggles. So basically played to his handicap and -5 to par. He said every par 5 was a par 4 for him, green in 2, and on the shorter par 4's he was partial shot wedge or near the green pitching. Also said he didn't putt well.

 

Edited July 20, 2017 by Dave2512

[Golfingdad]

Bumping this thread because I just saw this old article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/01/AR2007070101221_2.html?sub=AR&sid=ST2009071701245

The article is older than the thread, so it's entirely possible it's already linked in here.  If so, my apologies.

Quote

... I had asked Marino, who will be competing in this week's AT&T National at Congressional Country Club, to play with me at East Potomac because I wanted an answer, finally, to the question that so many of us duffers ask as we walk off municipal courses and total up scores we hope will end up in two digits: What would a PGA Tour player shoot here, anyway? On a short course devoid of significant obstacles, could Marino possibly score in the 50s? Or would the annoyances of public golf -- bumpy greens, eroded fairways, chunky sand traps -- throw him wildly off kilter?

...

"Oh, man, I'm feeling pretty stiff," Marino said. "I think I can still go low 60s."

...

The par-4 first hole was emblematic of Marino's round. He crushed a drive 320 yards down the right side of the fairway, almost all the way to the green, only to find the ball settled in a pile of twigs. Marino wasted his next shot chopping the ball out into the grass, and then he pitched his third shot to within 12 feet of the pin. He struck what felt like a pure putt, but the ball ran over sand and stopped a few inches short of the hole. Marino stood on the green and shook his head. "Ridiculous. Just ridiculous," he said. Then he tapped in for bogey.

Marino's patches of excellence continued to be interrupted by bad luck and unseemly playing conditions. He birded Nos. 3 and 4 to get under par. As playing partners, we started to fall into a rhythm: I hit my drives first, after the twosome in front of us had moved at least 250 yards ahead. Then we waited -- sometimes for two minutes, sometimes for five -- until that group cleared the hole and Marino could safely bomb one of his 300-yard drives.

...

"It's just kind of like you hit it and guess where it goes on this course," Marino said. "I don't think I'd ever shoot over par on a course like this, but I'm not sure I could ever go really low. On nice courses, you know when you hit a good shot that you're going to get rewarded for it. So if you're playing great, you score great. Here, you just never know."

...

"This actually kind of makes me look forward to Oakmont," he said. "That course might be a better fit for me."

 

[BaconNEggs]

I'd guess low to mid-60s, with the potential to go really low. The CR is 69.5 and under 6100 from the tips. Par 70, 126 slope.

 

There's not a whole lot of penalizing going on throughout the course. Most of the par 4s are trouble-free on at least one side (usually a parallel hole), sometimes both. There are two realistically drivable par 4s. One you would definitely need a caddie to point you where to cut the bend to drive it, but distance wise it would be drivable with a 3-wood for most tour pros I'd guess. Two more might be reachable by the longer players. The fairways are wide, and the rough tends to be a little dry, and usually cut relatively short.

 

What I found interesting is that the other local course is about 6500 yards, has some difficult elevation changes, more doglegs, more trees and trouble, longer rough, requires much more precision off the tee, but has the same course rating and slope. That's shocking to me. It's harder in every aspect of the game that I can think of. The course record there is 63, and I'd guess most pros would shoot in the upper 60s. I suppose it's short enough for the pros to play less than driver on many holes, but I just can't believe that it's rated the same difficulty. Makes me really question the rating system

[JonMA1]

This was my favorite part.... 

On 9/7/2017 at 11:31 AM, Golfingdad said:

Marino's patches of excellence continued to be interrupted by bad luck and unseemly playing conditions.

"Oh my... our caddies informs us your golf course is that of the poor - with unseemly playing conditions."

Actually, the article was pretty informative. I always thought of their courses as being a lot tougher  - and certainly they are when it comes to distance, taller rough and fast greens - but I never considered that the goat tracks I play might be tougher for someone accustomed to pristine course conditions. Makes you wonder how they play so well in the rain.

[bones75]

4 hours ago, BaconNEggs said:

The course record there is 63, and I'd guess most pros would shoot in the upper 60s

Makes me wonder what the correlation is between what pros would shoot and course records.  

[1badbadger]

I live in Fort Worth TX, and between here and Dallas this area is home to a decent number of Tour players.  I used to manage a golf shop in town that specialized in club building and repair, and that's where many of them came when they had an off week and needed work done, so I've become friends with these guys and had the chance to play with them many times.  A player might be in the shop to have some drivers built for example, and we would finish them up before closing time and the pro would say "grab your gear...let's go hit these things!"  So at 6 pm we'd head to a nearby course and play 9-holes before dark.  Stuff like that.  We might play at a private club or the muni down the street,

One evening me and a couple guys from the shop were playing with Mark Brooks at my unofficial home course, which is a public facility that used to be part of the military base. Mark has been on tour since the early '80's, has made over 400 cuts on the regular Tour and has won 7 times, including a major.  He's a pretty salty player.  This particular night we weren't gambling or anything...just an informal 9 holes so Mark could test a few new clubs.  I never saw him walk off a yardage for any approach shots, didn't throw any grass in the air to check the wind, and he never crouched down to read a single putt...and shot 30 (-6).  And I'm riding in the same cart, grinding out a 39.

This next story I didn't witness in person, but it was told to me by someone who did.  A number of years ago Rory Sabatini moved from Dallas to Ft. Worth, and he joined one of the clubs that some other Tour players also belong to.It's a solid Tom Weiskopf/Jay Morrish design, so if you don't belong to Colonial or Shady Oaks, it's Mira Vista. A good friend of mine played with Rory shortly after he relocated to the area, and it was one of Rory's first few times playing the track.  My buddy is a very good player, having played on a golf scholarship in college, and played well this day shooting 69...and got beat by 7.  He shot 62 like it was a walk in the park.  

[Keith White]

My course is flat and pretty short, the greens are tricky but a pro would take that out.  They would murder it.

[iacas]

5 hours ago, BaconNEggs said:

I'd guess low to mid-60s, with the potential to go really low. The CR is 69.5 and under 6100 from the tips. Par 70, 126 slope.

Probably not.

As I said above, some basic math:

Let's imagine 10 par fours averaging 350 yards: 3500 yards.
Let's imagine 4 par threes averaging 150 yards: 600 yards.
Let's imagine 4 par fives averaging 525 yards: 2100 yards.

That's 6,200 yards.

10 @ 350: 10 x 3.89 = 38.9
4 @ 150: 4 x 2.98 = 11.92
4 @ 525: 4 x 4.56 = 18.24

Total: 69.06

Now, yes, that's an average. On a 6200 yard course, playing at PGA Tour level conditions. Which has its pros and cons. From 6200 yards, pros are not gonna be in the rough very much (nor will they be in the rough much on a 350-yard par four, or when they do they'll be close to the green, yet they still average 3.89). They'll also face worse greens. They'll face lies with rocks, hardpan, goose shit, etc.

Will some pros shoot lower? You bet. But this is an average, and some will shoot higher. For the rare 63 (six strokes below average!), you'll get a 75. Yeah, a 75. From 6200 yards.

5 hours ago, BaconNEggs said:

Makes me really question the rating system

What are the names and states of these courses?

38 minutes ago, 1badbadger said:

I never saw him walk off a yardage for any approach shots, didn't throw any grass in the air to check the wind, and he never crouched down to read a single putt...and shot 30 (-6).  And I'm riding in the same cart, grinding out a 39.

…

He shot 62 like it was a walk in the park.  

Those stories stand out to you because they're exceptions. You're likely slightly overlooking the number of times they shot 35, 36, 37…

---

Yes, PGA Tour players are great.

But at the end of the day, we're still whacking a little ball with screwy looking little sticks hundreds of yards into a hole that's barely bigger than your fist. That's tough to do.

[onthehunt526]

54 minutes ago, iacas said:

They'll also face worse greens. They'll face lies with rocks, hardpan, goose shit, etc.

You must be talking about my home course there, Erik.

[onthehunt526]

I would say between 65-70 if you took an average of 10 rounds at Newman. They'd probably be putting through a mine field of goose shit on 7 and 16. Though the 1st is a shortish par 5 by PGA Tour standards it's tight as hell. Though they would make up some ground on some of the shorter par 4s, They wouldn't drive the 330-yard 8th. Our doglegs kind of protect the shorter par-4s. You'd see a lot of irons on 3,4, and 5 maybe a Driver on 6, iron on 8, maybe 3-wood on 13 and 14. I'd say with our course being 6385 yards (9 holes with 2 sets of tees). A tour pro would probably average around 69. Just my humble opinion.

Oh, they would probably kill a goose or two on 6,7,8, 15,16,17 or 18.  Over/under on dead geese is 1.5... 

[NM Golf]

I've played my home course with some TOUR players in the past. It's been probably 15 years but back then they were in the mid 60's most of the time. Occasionally they would go off and go low. Watched Brian Kortan shoot 61 like it was nothing one time. 

[boogielicious]

10 hours ago, iacas said:

But at the end of the day, we're still whacking a little ball with screwy looking little sticks hundreds of yards into a hole that's barely bigger than your fist. That's tough to do.

 Nice summary!

I would add, "and having fun doing it!"

[BaconNEggs]

On ‎9‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 9:17 PM, iacas said:

Now, yes, that's an average. On a 6200 yard course, playing at PGA Tour level conditions. Which has its pros and cons. From 6200 yards, pros are not gonna be in the rough very much (nor will they be in the rough much on a 350-yard par four, or when they do they'll be close to the green, yet they still average 3.89). They'll also face worse greens. They'll face lies with rocks, hardpan, goose shit, etc.

Will some pros shoot lower? You bet. But this is an average, and some will shoot higher. For the rare 63 (six strokes below average!), you'll get a 75. Yeah, a 75. From 6200 yards.

Yeah, I guess averaging low 60s would actually be quite extreme. I just think of it as a very generous course, but they'd still have to actually hit shots and make putts to go that low.

 

Both scorecards are located here: https://www.cityofbostongolf.com/course/scorecards 

 

For a long time, although I'm sure it has now changed, holes 9 & 10 at George Wright (the 6400 yard course) were considered the two hardest back to back par 4s in Massachusetts, at 450 and 460 yards respectively, with elevation and/or direction changes. They remain a pretty serious test for the average muni hacker, but I suspect some newer, longer courses might have that beat now.

[CaseyD]

What scores do you think touring pros would shoot at your home course?  No caddy, no yardage books, no green books. Just them on a cart like we all play(or at least most of us).  I think we would all be surprised. I would guess 75ish at my home course from the tips. I've always wondered. Just a bored time killer question.