$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

[MacDutch]

2 hours ago, iacas said:

You leave your house, right? Why? Because you feel driving to work or to play golf is worth the risk of getting into your car. The risk is small enough that the downside - dying or being disfigured in a car accident - is easily outweighed by the upside. Even if the upside is as simple as going to get an ice cream cone.

This is also not the same situation. Not getting out of your house is like the end of your normal life. You can’t compare these two situations at all.

[iacas]

9 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

This is also not the same situation. Not getting out of your house is like the end of your normal life. You can’t compare these two situations at all.

Yes I can. I did.

He drives to get ice cream because the downside has a low chance of happening even with the comparatively weak upside of getting an ice cream.

[TheWoodBoss]

This is the Perfect Scenario, I'm going to jail anyway in a month for 6 years, does time served count ?

[MacDutch]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Yes I can. I did.

He drives to get ice cream because the downside has a low chance of happening even with the comparatively weak upside of getting an ice cream.

Comparing real life with a game. You did indeed 🙄

[iacas]

2 hours ago, MacDutch said:

Comparing real life with a game. You did indeed 🙄

I made my point.

[Pretzel]

2 hours ago, MacDutch said:

Comparing real life with a game. You did indeed 🙄

No, it's comparing risks and rewards.

In the proposed scenario you are risking 5 years spent in jail if you fail, but the reward if you succeed is $5,000,000.

In the comparison you are risking a horrible death in a car crash if you fail to make it to the ice cream shop safely, among other things, and the reward is getting ice cream. The odds of failure are low enough to offset the relatively small reward, however. The odds of success are 99.99%, or more.

In this case the odds of success are somewhere between 70% and 90%, depending on your skill level. This means you have a 10-30% chance of going to jail for 5 years, but a 70-90% chance of winning 5 million dollars. The "average" expected outcome over the course of many golfers would thus be 0.5-1.5 years in jail and 3.5-4.5 million dollars.

It just comes down to how risk adverse you are when you're wagering jail time against money. For those who are older it's likely a bad move. I outlined on the 3rd page why I would take the risk, but the general gist is that because I'm young losing those 5 years wouldn't ruin my life (with only about a 15% of it happening to me) but the $5,000,000 would be a huge boost that could help me ensure financial stability and success for the rest of my life.

[LMoore]

7 hours ago, iacas said:

You leave your house, right? Why? Because you feel driving to work or to play golf is worth the risk of getting into your car. The risk is small enough that the downside - dying or being disfigured in a car accident - is easily outweighed by the upside. Even if the upside is as simple as going to get an ice cream cone.

That's not the same situation.

5 million is not worth the chance of jail. I have too much I care about to take that risk.

Trip to the store. I like my chances.

Weighing  risk was my point, regardless of what I may have lucked into in the past. 

If you don’t have enough in your life worth considering, by all means, take your bet.

[iacas]

51 minutes ago, LMoore said:

5 million is not worth the chance of jail. I have too much I care about to take that risk.

Trip to the store. I like my chances.

Weighing  risk was my point, regardless of what I may have lucked into in the past. 

If you don’t have enough in your life worth considering, by all means, take your bet.

My point was that you acted like I wasn't considering the odds, or the downside.

I was, as was @Pretzel.

Plus, think of all the reading I could do in jail in five years! I might even catch up on the backlog of books that I've started and have lying about my house (and on my Kindle)!

[Wally Fairway]

6 hours ago, TheWoodBoss said:

This is the Perfect Scenario, I'm going to jail anyway in a month for 6 years, does time served count ?

Sorry you didn't make a hole-in-one

 

(or maybe yours is a different story)

[bm85]

I'd give it a shot (or 7499 and take a quick trip to Mexico...)

No matter what happens my wife will be happy 😋

[DrvFrShow]

No because I'm old and and don't want to spend 5 of my last years in prison.

[onthehunt526]

On 2/27/2019 at 6:45 PM, iacas said:

I'm blatantly stealing this from elsewhere (with some modifications).

Here's the situation.

Someone offers you the following wager: if you can make a hole in one on a regular par three green the length you hit your full 8-iron (so, say, 135 to 165 yards depending on your own personal abilities). If you succeed, you win $5M. If you fail, you go to jail for 5 years with no chance of early parole.

Some other details:

• You have 30 consecutive days to complete the challenge.
• You get to hit up to 250 balls per day (so, up to 7500 balls).
• There's nothing tricky about the green or hole or anything - it's a regular hole, a regular green with regular size, firmness, stimp, etc.
• The hole location will change daily (and the tees will be adjusted so the yardage stays within five yards of your full 8-iron distance).
• Balls you previously hit magically disappear so you can't bank a ball in or something.
• Nobody else can play the hole - it's magically placed in your back yard or something.

Do you take the bet?

No, and let me tell you why. I don't like how the bet is framed. Because I know at least here in New York even if you max out you must be paroled out of prison. And parole even on max outs is a mandatory 1 year here in NY.

[boogielicious]

I'd try it. If I didn't make it, this would be me in prison.

 

[TheWoodBoss]

9 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Sorry you didn't make a hole-in-one

 

(or maybe yours is a different story)

Since it's a bogus bet I gave a bogus answer...LOL

[LMoore]

10 hours ago, iacas said:

My point was that you acted like I wasn't considering the odds, or the downside.

I was, as was @Pretzel.

Plus, think of all the reading I could do in jail in five years! I might even catch up on the backlog of books that I've started and have lying about my house (and on my Kindle)!

I was acting? Didn’t know you were clairvoyant.

 I was speaking for me. I’m no ones advocate.

As for catching up on reading, not reading is your choice. You choose how you spend your time. Without the hole in one, the choices of how spend your time would narrow considerably.

[iacas]

7 hours ago, LMoore said:

I was acting? Didn’t know you were clairvoyant.

Now you do. 😄

7 hours ago, LMoore said:

II was speaking for me. I’m no ones advocate.

You said other people don’t consider the downsides. You used my name and either implied I was not “wise” or the “sorry” meant simply you weren’t taking the bet. I chose to take it the latter way.

7 hours ago, LMoore said:

As for catching up on reading, not reading is your choice. You choose how you spend your time.

Depending on how you define “choice…” no.

[Elmer]

On 2/27/2019 at 6:45 PM, iacas said:

 

Do you take the bet?

G*d hates a coward!!!!!
Of course you take the bet!

[LMoore]

2 hours ago, iacas said:

Now you do. 😄

You said other people don’t consider the downsides. You used my name and either implied I was not “wise” or the “sorry” meant simply you weren’t taking the bet. I chose to take it the latter way.

Depending on how you define “choice…” no.

 

It was intended to mean, I’m sorry if you don’t have anything precious in your life that’s worth more than the prospect of incarceration.