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$5M vs. 5 Years in Jail Bet  

79 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you take the bet proposed in the first post?

    • Yes
      22
    • No
      57


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  • Administrator
Posted

I'm blatantly stealing this from elsewhere (with some modifications).

Here's the situation.

Someone offers you the following wager: if you can make a hole in one on a regular par three green the length you hit your full 8-iron (so, say, 135 to 165 yards depending on your own personal abilities). If you succeed, you win $5M. If you fail, you go to jail for 5 years with no chance of early parole.

Some other details:

  • You have 30 consecutive days to complete the challenge.
  • You get to hit up to 250 balls per day (so, up to 7500 balls).
  • There's nothing tricky about the green or hole or anything - it's a regular hole, a regular green with regular size, firmness, stimp, etc.
  • The hole location will change daily (and the tees will be adjusted so the yardage stays within five yards of your full 8-iron distance).
  • Balls you previously hit magically disappear so you can't bank a ball in or something.
  • Nobody else can play the hole - it's magically placed in your back yard or something.

Do you take the bet?

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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  • Administrator
Posted

I take the bet.

7500 balls at between 12500:1 and 2500:1 odds? Sure. Plus those odds are for amateur golfers (the 12500:1 end), and I'm better than the average amateur. Plus, those are the odds for a player playing the hole once in the middle of playing other holes and hitting other clubs. The odds go down quite a bit for a player getting to hit 250 shots to the same target.

My strategy would depend on the hole location: if it's in the back, I'm definitely playing a 7-iron or even a 6-iron and rolling the ball back to the hole.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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Posted

Nope.

If I remember correctly, the odds of an ace are north of 12,000/1 for the average schmuck...

In David's bag....

Driver: Titleist 910 D-3;  9.5* Diamana Kai'li
3-Wood: Titleist 910F;  15* Diamana Kai'li
Hybrids: Titleist 910H 19* and 21* Diamana Kai'li
Irons: Titleist 695cb 5-Pw

Wedges: Scratch 51-11 TNC grind, Vokey SM-5's;  56-14 F grind and 60-11 K grind
Putter: Scotty Cameron Kombi S
Ball: ProV1

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  • Administrator
Posted
1 minute ago, David in FL said:

Nope.

If I remember correctly, the odds of an ace are north of 12,000/1 for the average schmuck...

12500, and you're better than an average golfer, AND you're playing the SAME HOLE repeatedly.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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  • Moderator
Posted

I'd take the bet. One of those balls is bound to dumb luck its way in.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

My Swing Thread

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  • Moderator
Posted

After reading the OP, I’d take the bet. That is a lot of chances. 

Scott

Titleist, Edel, Scotty Cameron Putter, Snell - AimPoint - Evolvr - MirrorVision

My Swing Thread

boogielicious - Adjective describing the perfect surf wave

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Posted (edited)

Nope, I would pass on that wager.

 I know how many hole in ones I have, vs how many rounds I have played. 

Way too much luck involved to make it a worth while bet. 

5 years in the pen? No way.

Edited by Patch

In My Bag:
A whole bunch of Tour Edge golf stuff...... :beer:

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Posted

Definitely no.  I've had one hole in one in my life.  I'd need more goes than 250 per day.  Like @David in FL said, the potential upside just isn't worth the risk.  Plus, there was no mention of weather in the hypo.

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Posted

I'd hypothetically take the bet. But I would like to know which jail. I mean, is it the local pokey? Or am I going to be with hand core prisoners. I'd hate to be regretting my decision while being traded for lucky strikes. 

  • Thumbs Up 1

My bag is an ever-changing combination of clubs. 

A mix I am forever tinkering with. 

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  • Moderator
Posted
21 minutes ago, jamo said:

I'll take the bet. It would be quite a story to tell in prison. 

Better than I ripped the tag off the pillow 😜

  • Like 1

Steve

Kill slow play. Allow walking. Reduce ineffective golf instruction. Use environmentally friendly course maintenance.

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  • Administrator
Posted
21 minutes ago, jamo said:

I'll take the bet. It would be quite a story to tell in prison. 

Q: "Whaddya in for?"

A: "Failing to get a hole in one."


I don't understand many of the "no" votes. If you're a reasonably good golfer, the odds are pretty well in your favor.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

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Posted

Wasn't there someone trying to hit hole-in-one with 10,000 balls and did not make it?

Don

:titleist: 910 D2, 8.5˚, Adila RIP 60 S-Flex
:titleist: 980F 15˚
:yonex: EZone Blades (3-PW) Dynamic Gold S-200
:vokey:   Vokey wedges, 52˚; 56˚; and 60˚
:scotty_cameron:  2014 Scotty Cameron Select Newport 2

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Posted

Hell no. First, I’m not a very good golfer, and second, one injury from so many attempts and you’re done for. 


  • Administrator
Posted
29 minutes ago, Yukari said:

Wasn't there someone trying to hit hole-in-one with 10,000 balls and did not make it?

I don't think so. The European Tour has done 500 in a day twice, I think.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

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Note: This thread is 2461 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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