$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

[Lihu]

40 minutes ago, 3jacker said:

For a real crime, instead of "failure to hole out!" 

Right, and I was just going to highlight the “law degree” part, but didn’t want to potentiallly alienate any of them on this site! 🤪😂🤪

[GolfLug]

Regardless of the overwhelmingly favorable odds this is a no brainer for me. I couldn't even begin to contemplate 5 years without my kids. My little guy and I are absolute soul mates. Not a chance. 

@Pretzel, I have some real life experience working cummulative probability odds gambling online some 15 years ago. Let's just say I did well for a few months until the day the ball landed on red 18 times in a row. 

BTW, on the prison note, I have heard that even white collar prisoners get lonely.. 😋

Edited March 1, 2019 by GolfLug

[Pretzel]

7 hours ago, boogielicious said:

However, the odds stated at the beginning are based on generally golfing attempts, which are usually one shot per hole per round on par 3 holes. In this bet, you have the same hole and same conditions each day. I think that would lower the original odds significantly. 

I mentioned this as reasoning for why I thought 1 in 4,000 was a conservative estimate for my skill level. I suppose I stated it backwards though, saying the odds would go up.

 

To clarify, I think this challenge is easier than hitting a hole in one in general during a round of golf. You get 250 attempts each day at the same pin position, and you get a LOT of practice at the same shot (+/- 10 yards) as the month goes on. For me the fatigue of hitting 250 balls isn't an issue, though I can see it being a problem for those who aren't fresh out of their teenage years.

[Fourputt]

Let's see, I made 2 aces within 9 months of each other in 1989 and 1990.  Haven't sniffed one since, and my handicap is 10 strokes higher than it was then. 

So no, I would not even consider such a wager.  The jails are crowded enough. 🤣

[sjduffers]

I have to admit that it is tempting to take the bet. Chances are on our side, theoretically. And I have an ave already, which was much longer than that (174 yards) and a few hole outs over 100 yards.

But I have to agree with many others that while the $5M would improve my situation, I am not desperate enough to improve it that much at the risk of losing my freedom for 5 years, even with small(-ish) chances of doing so. As you get older, that 5 years has a higher chance of turning into a life sentence, you see? So, I'll pass. Thanks for asking! 🙂

[Herkimer]

I'm not spending 5 seconds in jail let alone 5 years.  And I do believe that I'd get a hole-in-one, too.  But you never know.  So I won't take that bet.  

[Big C]

I would seriously question the sanity of anyone over the age of 25 who would answer "yes" to that question. At a certain point in your life, time becomes exponentially more valuable than money. Yes, $5 million would make my life a little bit better. But losing 5 years of my life would be absolutely devastating. Having a young family would make it moreso but even if I were a single dude, a forced 5 year hiatus in the middle of my life would put a serious dampener on almost any life goals or plans that I saw for myself.

Based on the stats posted above, I'm guessing I would have between a 70-80% chance of success. At those odds, I wouldn't even consider it. Get me north of 95% and I might start to give it a real thought.  

 

 

[iacas]

18 minutes ago, Big C said:

I would seriously question the sanity of anyone over the age of 25 who would answer "yes" to that question.

…

Get me north of 95% and I might start to give it a real thought.  

PWC.

[SPJr]

Not a chance

[rehmwa]

On 2/28/2019 at 6:09 PM, Yukari said:

You are assuming each shot is dependent on the other.  One shot has no bearing on the next shot.  Therefore, each shot has 1 in 12,500 or 1 in 2,500 odds of going in.

It's like a flipping a coin.  After 1000 straight times it comes up heads, the next toss is still only 50-50 it would come up tails.

No.  Each single toss is worth 50/50  (or each individual 8 iron swing is 1 in 12,500) as you say.  But if you flip 1000 coins, the cumulative probably that ANY SINGLE ONE of them is heads it very high.  Any SINGLE SPECIFIC instance yes, but the cumulative effect (predicted beforehand) no.

One can argue, that the odds get worse as you go, because you can throw away the previous attempts if they fail and rationalize that the odds only count on what remains.  But I don't like that approach either.  The contract and odds are made PRIOR to hitting any shots.  So one should approach this challenge as the sum total start to finish.

I think it's fair to say that there's ~ 85% chance the challenge will succeed...then simply decide if 85% is good enough to risk prison vs $$$....I don't get why people find the challenge to be 'desparation' driven. it's just calculating odds vs one's risk tolerance.  IMO - It's an "opportunity" take or not as one will.

Edited March 4, 2019 by rehmwa

[Big C]

34 minutes ago, iacas said:

PWC.

Apologies, but what does PWC mean?

[iacas]

1 minute ago, Big C said:

Apologies, but what does PWC mean?

Posted without comment

[Big C]

Isn't there a difference between a meaningful (20/25%+) chance of going to prison and very slight (5% or less) chance? 

I suppose it all comes down to your risk tolerance and how you value your time vs. the possibility of a nice financial upside. In that sense, who am I to question the sanity of someone who wants to take that bet (maybe that is the point you are trying to make)?

Either way, it's not a bet that I would take. 

 

[iacas]

Just now, Big C said:

Isn't there a difference between a meaningful (20/25%+) chance of going to prison and very slight (5% or less) chance? 

You're assuming that those who vote "yes" feel their chances are 20-25%.

You said "I question the sanity of anyone who votes yes." then later said that you'd give it some real thought. I posted that without commentary.

Just now, Big C said:

I suppose it all comes down to your risk tolerance and how you value your time vs. the possibility of a nice financial upside. In that sense, who am I to question the sanity of someone who wants to take that bet (maybe that is the point you are trying to make)?

I wasn't making a comment, really. Hence "PWC". 😄

[Lihu]

5 hours ago, rehmwa said:

No.  Each single toss is worth 50/50  (or each individual 8 iron swing is 1 in 12,500) as you say.  But if you flip 1000 coins, the cumulative probably that ANY SINGLE ONE of them is heads it very high.  Any SINGLE SPECIFIC instance yes, but the cumulative effect (predicted beforehand) no.

One can argue, that the odds get worse as you go, because you can throw away the previous attempts if they fail and rationalize that the odds only count on what remains.  But I don't like that approach either.  The contract and odds are made PRIOR to hitting any shots.  So one should approach this challenge as the sum total start to finish.

I think it's fair to say that there's ~ 85% chance the challenge will succeed...then simply decide if 85% is good enough to risk prison vs $$$....I don't get why people find the challenge to be 'desparation' driven. it's just calculating odds vs one's risk tolerance.  IMO - It's an "opportunity" take or not as one will.

I think on the last day 250 balls to go or not, one would be pretty apprehensive to hit well at all, possibly even the second two weeks. 🥺

If the old balls stayed in a little pile around the hole I might take that bet, but nooo... wayyy otherwise...🤪

[David in FL]

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

I think on the last day 250 balls to go or not, one would be pretty apprehensive to hit well at all, possibly even the second two weeks. 🥺

If the old balls stayed in a little pile around the hole I might take that bet, but nooo... wayyy otherwise...🤪

It seems to me, that the more balls on the green, between you and the hole, the less chance of making an ace...

[Buckeyebowman]

I voted no, and my reasoning is quite pragmatic. Considering that I have played this game for over 50 years, and for a time at a pretty high level, and have never had a hole in one makes my decision easy. I've been close any number of times, but never had the magic happen. Heck, I know a guy who is a joke as a golfer and was drunk on his ass who got one! Too much luck involved to risk 5 years in the pokey!

[boogielicious]

9 hours ago, David in FL said:

It seems to me, that the more balls on the green, between you and the hole, the less chance of making an ace...

What if they were arranged in a chevron and acting like a funnel to the hole!!!