Tony Romo Playing in the Byron Nelson - How Will He Fare?

[onthehunt526]

It depends. I think he possibly could break par in one of his rounds. He makes the cut, that would be great. Hell I'll eat my hat if he finishes 4 rounds.

[turtleback]

15 hours ago, ChrisP said:

Gotcha. Was just curious. Wasn’t sure if he qualified or if it was invite or some other reason. Just read the article. I wish him luck. Should be good for attendance and interest.

Huh??

The very first line in the OP said sponsor's exemption, and YOUR OWN message said he got a special invitation, and now you say the bolded portion?

[chspeed]

9 hours ago, Patch said:

I have him at 8K to 1. Last I looked he is now 10K to 1. I was there betting off the Rockets/Warriors series and saw it on the board. Figured what heck, why not.

Because you might as well throw your money away. My guess is that calculated odds are a lot worse (100,000 to 1?), and that it's 10k to 1 because he's a fan favorite. He has almost no chance.

Edited May 8, 2019 by chspeed

[p1n9183]

Bad bet! I take it against you!
He´s not even making the cut. I guess his better round would be around 75. 

[Patch]

45 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

Bad bet! I take it against you!
He´s not even making the cut. I guess his better round would be around 75. 

Of course it's a bad bet. Most bets by the public at a sports book are bad bets, since the sports books rarely make a mistakes. These casinos don't stay in business very long by paying out to a majority of winners. 

A few things though. One, it's a novelty item. He's a personality. I have a coupon with Romo's name on it. Maybe some day, by chance, I can get him to autograph it. 

The second is that I mentioned I was there to "bet off" the Rockets/Warriors nba series. Regardless of how that series turns out, the worst that can happen is I will all most break even, which also includes that $20 Romo bet. 

[chspeed]

37 minutes ago, Patch said:

Of course it's a bad bet. Most bets by the public at a sports book are bad bets, since the sports books rarely make a mistakes. These casinos don't stay in business very long by paying out to a majority of winners. 

That's not how it works. They make money on the vig (basically a surcharge on your bet). They don't care who wins. Their goal is to have equal bets on both sides and stay out of it altogether.

Sometimes, when there's not a lot of action on a bet, but some people want it, they'll just throw up a bad bet. That's probably the case here.

1 hour ago, p1n9183 said:

Bad bet! I take it against you!
He´s not even making the cut. I guess his better round would be around 75. 

Fanduel has the odds at 100k:1, which makes a bit more sense.

Tony Romo's Odds to Win AT&T Byron Nelson Tournament Are Insane

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sane Cover Photo: Getty Images Tony Romo was once a Pro-Bowl quarterback. He's now an entertaining color commentator and a scratch...

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by chspeed

[iacas]

1 minute ago, chspeed said:

That's actually not how it works. They make money on the vig (basically a surcharge on your bet). They don't care who wins. Their goal is to have equal bets on both sides and stay out of it altogether.

That's also not how it actually works.

Casinos gamble all the time. They don't try to have "equal bets on both sides." Common - and incorrect - myth.

[chspeed]

1 minute ago, iacas said:

That's also not how it actually works.

Casinos gamble all the time. They don't try to have "equal bets on both sides." Common - and incorrect - myth.

Really? Please state your source. I'd like to understand that business model a little better.

[iacas]

7 minutes ago, chspeed said:

Really? Please state your source. I'd like to understand that business model a little better.

Research it yourself. You'll see. They're all making more than the vig.

[chspeed]

31 minutes ago, iacas said:

Research it yourself. You'll see. They're all making more than the vig.

Just did, wasn't easy to find, but I did find this article in the Times a while ago. It's an old article, but explains how they go about maximizing profit on bets when people aren't rational. Thanks for pointing this out.

Just being a bit nit-picky here, but I wouldn't call what they're doing gambling (at least not in the described method), it's more like sophisticated sportbook arbitrage.

 

Dissecting the Line - The New York Times

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Stephen J Dubner and Steven D Levitt The Wager column discusses intricacies of betting on Super Bowl game; graph; photo (M)

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by chspeed

[criley4way]

52 minutes ago, iacas said:

That's also not how it actually works.

Casinos gamble all the time. They don't try to have "equal bets on both sides." Common - and incorrect - myth.

That is true but as we all know the Odds or line will change as money stacks on one side or the other. The house wants to make money. They try to set a smart line but they do not like having too much exposure on either side. Odds on gambling are insurance for the casino. They try to make sure that they make money.

[iacas]

51 minutes ago, criley4way said:

That is true but as we all know the Odds or line will change as money stacks on one side or the other. The house wants to make money. They try to set a smart line but they do not like having too much exposure on either side. Odds on gambling are insurance for the casino. They try to make sure that they make money.

I think you’d be surprised.

[David in FL]

Romo birdies #1.  Saves a good par 3 on 2....

[Big C]

7 minutes ago, David in FL said:

Romo birdies #1.  Saves a good par 3 on 2....

Starting out strong. I'm not a big gambler, but I was curious to see what some of the betting sites had predicted for Romo. One of them had the over/under on his first round at 75.5. I'm a little disappointed that I didn't check earlier. I would have been willing to wager a modest sum on the "under" there. 

[Shindig]

Eagle on 7, despite a bogey on 5.    Two under through seven holes, still in the running for the "no sixes" badge on this round too.

[David in FL]

And gives it back with a double (6) on 9...

 

[Ty_Webb]

To be honest I’d say anything better than DFL would be a decent result for him. Even so far. Let’s see how it pans out after tomorrow. 

[jshots]

On one hand he is only 2 shots above the last place. On the other hand he is tied with Luke Donald.

I feel like if he keeps getting these sponsors exemptions he will eventually post something decent, and it would be a pretty cool story for him to make a cut. It's a good example of how far scratch golfers are from tour players.