What Are You Doing Now (Quarantine Edition)?

[leftybutnotPM]

4 hours ago, David in FL said:

7,000?  Good grief.  100 in the U.S.  The flu kills in the neighborhood of 20,000 EVERY YEAR in the U.S.

Millions....I’ll say it again, MILLIONS, are going to be seriously hurt, many irreparably because of this. 

I know, I know....  if we save even one life, it’s worth it.  

 

You read about really stupid people and their attitudes about things and how they are responsible for all types of things and you just wonder who these people are and how they came to be. Why they believe charlatans and other idiots who know nothing.

You have demonstrated yourself to be an absolute fool. And a dangerous one. How the f*ck can you compare this to the flu? 

You are going to have millions losing their jobs and thousands of businesses closing and arguments where landlords want to throw non-paying renters onto the street - yes.

You are also going to have a public health system that might end up looking like 1918. 

[iacas]

Calm down.

Or at least tone it down.

[leftybutnotPM]

I am certainly trying to. But when confronted with stupidity that is also dangerous I get a little frustrated.

I am giving myself a break from the site for 24 hours.

 

[nevets88]

Not me, but LEGO + Augusta National #12!

 

[Vinsk]

6 minutes ago, nevets88 said:

Not me, but LEGO + Augusta National #12!

 

Do they get a free Yoda knit head cover as well? Lol...kidding with ya...that’s awesome.

I’m going through a lot of the final rounds at The Masters on YouTube.

[nevets88]

Padraig Harrington

 

[Slim_Pivot]

4 hours ago, CarlSpackler said:

Being in the world of IT is not very fun right now. I am working feverishly to enable people to work from home and implementing a one call system that was shot down in the past. I guess they think it is a good idea now. 🤦‍♂️

What is a one call system? 

Our IT seems to be doing well for now, I know they’ve been able to work from for a long time.

From what I understand there are different levels of work from home. Like yes they work from home one day a week, but they don’t have access to everything; they are slightly diminished. Is this close to how it works?

[dsc123]

FLORIDA MAN IGNORES CDC TO PLAY POOL AND SHARE FINGER FOODS, KILLS 1,000

[iacas]

4 hours ago, leftybutnotPM said:

I am giving myself a break from the site for 24 hours.

Just visit other topics. Not that complicated.

[CarlSpackler]

3 hours ago, Slim_Pivot said:

What is a one call system? 

Our IT seems to be doing well for now, I know they’ve been able to work from for a long time.

From what I understand there are different levels of work from home. Like yes they work from home one day a week, but they don’t have access to everything; they are slightly diminished. Is this close to how it works?

One Call is a system that is used by a lot of schools to notify parents of school closings/delays/events. You put in a message and it broadcasts it to all registered phone/email addresses.

We have had a system in place to connect remotely through VPN to do some work from home, but now we have to figure out how to make the entire office including desk phone available remotely.

[boogielicious]

Great visual on how epidemics spread and are controlled. I'm not sure if you need a subscription to WaPo for this.

How epidemics like covid-19 end (and how to end them faster)

---

Countries around the world are working to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Here’s how masks and quarantines fight the virus.

 

[billchao]

4 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

Great visual on how epidemics spread and are controlled. I'm not sure if you need a subscription to WaPo for this.

How epidemics like covid-19 end (and how to end them faster)

---

Countries around the world are working to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Here’s how masks...

 

I believe the Washington Post along with many other newspaper outlets are making their COVID-19 related articles free.

[boogielicious]

1 minute ago, billchao said:

I believe the Washington Post along with many other newspaper outlets are making their COVID-19 related articles free.

Thanks.

[boogielicious]

Luckily for me, The Robot has a COVID-19 early warning system!

 

[CarlSpackler]

Actual footage of me leaving my office.

 

[jsgolfer]

On 3/18/2020 at 10:13 AM, DeadMan said:

The best statistical model we have projects 2.2 million deaths in the US from the virus if we do nothing. That doesn't include an increase in mortality from an overwhelmed health system, just deaths from the virus.

Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

I hope @David in FL is right, but I feel like we should trust the experts here.

The problem is that the 3.9% fatality rate (in the article)  is based on the number of cases and number of deaths.  In reality, the numbers will be much lower than 3.9%.  I think there are far more people who have had the Coronavirus than have been tested confirmed.  So the number of people who have had it and thought it was just the flu is well under-reported. I remember reading or hearing a report that somewhere around 82% of the people who get the Coronavirus get a mild case and wouldn't think it was anything other than the normal flu.   And the people  most susceptible, are the elderly and especially the elderly with underlying conditions, such as emphysema or other respiratory issues, a lot frmo smoking ).   I think these are the vast majority of the cases in Italy (very old population and lots of smokers)

The number of coronavirus cases confirmed in the US as a percent of the number of flu cases confirmed in the US now stand at 4.2% (9,464/222,522).   The percent of deaths from the coronavirus to deaths from the flu is 0.7% (155/22,000).  

 

This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year

---

Find out how many people die from the flu every year, and how this year's flu deaths compare to the death toll of previous seasons.

The CDC also estimates that up to 31 million Americans have caught the flu this season (2019), with 210,000 to 370,000 flu sufferers hospitalized because of the virus.  

So how do these numbers compare to flu deaths in previous years? So far, it looks like the 2019-2020 death toll won’t be as high as it was in the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths. 

Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. 

 

US flu still elevated but dropping; deaths as high as 57,000 | CIDRAP

---

Flu has sickened an estimated 36 million to 41 million people and hospitalized up to 610,000.

 

Levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States remain elevated for the 21st consecutive week—the longest season in recent years—but the disease is on the decline, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update.

Still, the agency says influenza has caused up to 57,300 deaths and sickened up to 41.3 million people, according to new estimates. And the CDC reported five new flu-related deaths in children, raising the total confirmed this season to 91.

Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamic

---

An estimation of the clinical severity of COVID-19, based on the data available so far, can help to inform the public health response during the...

As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator¹ of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).

So you can put me in the camp with @David in FL, so unless we have an explosion of deaths and infections here shortly, this will be far less than the normal year death toll from the common flu.  

And I still do not know of one person who has had the Coronavirus, nor does anyone I know, know of anyone who has had it.  

[leftybutnotPM]

32 minutes ago, jsgolfer said:

So you can put me in the camp with @David in FL, so unless we have an explosion of deaths and infections here shortly, this will be far less than the normal year death toll from the common flu.  

And I still do not know of one person who has had the Coronavirus, nor does anyone I know, know of anyone who has had it.  

Well, there you go.

Another genius willing to put his scientific logic on display.

I particularly love the part in bold. It's compelling, thought provoking and, ultimately, smashes the theory that we are in the midst of a major health crisis.

Just in case you haven't got it yet, when 4000 people descend upon a hospital that has facilities for 300, and this happens in every city in the world, amazingly, this might cause a few "issues".

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by leftybutnotPM

[billchao]

58 minutes ago, jsgolfer said:

So you can put me in the camp with @David in FL, so unless we have an explosion of deaths and infections here shortly, this will be far less than the normal year death toll from the common flu.  

It’s not about the death rate compared to the flu, it’s about the ability to deal with the number of people who need to be admitted into ICUs if this thing becomes widespread. It happened in China and Italy, countries with advanced medical care found they did not have enough resources to treat everyone who needed it.

1 hour ago, jsgolfer said:

And I still do not know of one person who has had the Coronavirus, nor does anyone I know, know of anyone who has had it. 

I’m not aware of anyone who has it either, but this time last week there were no known cases of COVID-19 in my county. On Sunday there were two. As of right now, there are 64.