I think from the OP all players felt it was in the PA or the opponents would not have pushed for S&D. The question I am struggling with is making a "Reasonable Judgement" on where the ball crossed into the PA to identify where to drop. In the OP photo the red line (possible path 1) crosses into the PA just a little past the 1st bunker (Not where the red line ends, more like half-way along the red line) and the white line (possible path 2) enters the PA past the 2nd bunker. It's hard to tell from the diagram but is the difference between the 2 points 30-40-50 yards? The greater the distance between the two potential areas the less likely to make a "Reasonable Judgement" of where it entered and where to drop. I understand that without TV Cameras and Forecaddies none of know exactly where our ball may have crossed, we pick a tree, bush or other landmark and use that, but at what point does it become impossible to make a "Reasonable Judgement". Also, I understand the problem with the word "Reasonable" but that is what I see in Rule 1.3 per below.
Adding on, even in the OP they said it would be guess where it went out.
I don't think you're going against the consensus, really, I'd certainly agree that the ball must be Known or Virtually Certain to be in the Penalty Area. As I read the original post, I believe that @xcelrr8 WAS virtually certain that the ball was in the PA, and was asking about what his relief options were.