JB Holmes Lays up on 72nd Hole at Torrey Pines

[Phil McGleno]

Pretty sure I heard this stat: JB went for it 44 times. He laid up 16 times. He was -22 when he went for it. He was -1 when he didn't.

[Golfingdad]

I know the LSW rules and I agree with them but I don't think he made the wrong decision. From the small sample size I saw on Sunday, people were having a really hard time getting it close enough for a reasonable birdie from behind the green all day. Hell, Jason Day was suuuuper lucky to not have his third end up in the water and he's the guy that ended up winning. Further, it's different for different pros. Somebody like Phil, where money don't mean squat should go for it all day long trying to win in style, because if he doesn't win, who cares if he finishes in second or fifth? But the more journeyman-ish pros, every place and every dollar means a great deal, so I can see that favoring in as well. Playing for the tie and a "guaranteed" T2 at worst, vs. playing for the win and possibly a 4th or 5th place finish? Yeah, I can see that mattering too.

[SteveBamford]

Q. Did you this about going for it at all?
J.B. HOLMES: I thought about it, but it was on a, if it would have been five yards shorter or three or four yards longer, it was really on a down slope to the hole and it was just a lie that my tendency is to hit it a little bit further and hit a draw and long and left is dead. If you hit something over the green there, it's not really an easy up-and-down. It's not really the best access to the pin. The best lay up is to lay up and hit a wedge. I had the same thing again, I would lay up. I had the wind and that and you can't ask for much more than that.

[boogielicious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Club Rat

You guys are driving me to drink, I'm going to grab a beer and think about my next argument "why he made a choice which was the worst outcome"

Where's that "stats - crystal ball" which enlightens a golfer to make every right decision.

There are plenty of stats that say it was the wrong decision.  Two books detail it with thousands of data points  and have been discussed a lot on this forum.   His own personal stats below show he should have gone for the green in two.  Thanks @Phil McGleno

Quote:

Pretty sure I heard this stat:
JB went for it 44 times. He laid up 16 times.

He was -22 when he went for it. He was -1 when he didn't.

If I had Holmes ability, I would have hit to the green.  I was the correct choice statistically to score the lowest on the hole.  He was playing it safe not to lose and was not playing to his strengths to win.

[CarlSpackler]

Gotta go for it. This is for the whole enchilada. You have to play to win. He said his tendency is to hit it long and left. In that case, perhaps he should practice that shot. No guts... no glory.

[Gunther]

Gotta go for it. This is for the whole enchilada. You have to play to win. He said his tendency is to hit it long and left. In that case, perhaps he should practice that shot. No guts... no glory.

I don't disagree with this take. The point I was trying to make is that most of these guys do not play to win but for the paycheck. I'd hope that someone of JB's stature would have the guts to do it but he didn't and so for him, and most of The Tour, it was the proper decision. He guaranteed himself a 2nd place check, no small feat.

[Wally Fairway]

I checked with Pete Carroll and he thinks that JB absolutely should have gone for it.

Because if you make the shot and win it looks great, and really what could go wrong.

[golf-noob-bruce]

There are plenty of stats that say it was the wrong decision.

If I had to ask someone else to make this decision for me and were given the choice between a) making a decision based on one relatively simple statistical rule or b) a professional making a gut call based on untold hours of practice, experience and situation specific factors which we are almost completely unaware of, I'm going to go with b every single time. The suggestion that we somehow know better than he did what decision to make is very difficult to defend in my opinion.

BTW, I don't really understand the stat you quoted. Any chance you could explain it in a bit more detail?

Speaking about the stats specifically though, I'd be interested to see what the actual measured statistical difference is between laying up from the distance he did, and choosing to go for it instead?

[Robster 7]

At that level, if he lays up to his best yardage, he's probably got just as much chance of getting up and down as going for it and ending up buried in the greenside rough (like Jason Day ). He did what he thought was best and that way he gets into the playoff at worst, if he didn't get into the playoff then yes you can question his decision making.

[3putter]

If he truly was more likely to hit it long left, then I'd say go for it given the likelihood that he'll probably get a free drop from the grandstand. I most definitely wouldn't want the chip from behind the green though, hardly anyone got that chip close enough to a comfortable range. Given the result of his wedge on the first try, I'd say nerves were involved. He stuffed it on the first playoff hole, and had he done that on the 72nd, he walks away with the trophy.

[Shindig]

A quick thought: suppose he views the hazards as the most likely outcome of going for the green. Why lay up to 100 yards when there's that nice fairway right of the water that gives you a shorter shot? Plenty of opportunity to lay up to 40 yards if you're going to lay up. Although in looking it up, Holmes is ranked pretty low in approaches from inside 100 yards... I think this is just another case of conventional wisdom and what the numbers say clashing, and people preferring the former.

[saevel25]

A quick thought: suppose he views the hazards as the most likely outcome of going for the green. Why lay up to 100 yards when there's that nice fairway right of the water that gives you a shorter shot? Plenty of opportunity to lay up to 40 yards if you're going to lay up. Although in looking it up, Holmes is ranked pretty low in approaches from inside 100 yards...

I think this is just another case of conventional wisdom and what the numbers say clashing, and people preferring the former.

Pretty much. What do most people do when they are under pressure they revert back to conventional wisdom or habit. Most golfers have been told to take trouble completely out of the way it is better to lay up to a comfortable yardage. Very few golfers understand their own stats and how they can use that to their advantage.

[Deryck Griffith]

Agreed.

Kyle Stanley laid up and made 8, after all. From 75-100 yards last year, from the fairway, JB Holmes averaged 18'1" or something. That's not "makable putt" range. Two putting or getting up and down is a higher percentage play.

I agree.  I do think however that Lucas Glover's shot just before that went into the water (and hopped out incredibly) psyched out JB and he chickened out after seeing that shot.

If he walks up to his ball, zones in and doesn't see that shot Glover hit, I willing to bet he goes for it.

[boogielicious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by boogielicious

There are plenty of stats that say it was the wrong decision.

If I had to ask someone else to make this decision for me and were given the choice between a) making a decision based on one relatively simple statistical rule or b) a professional making a gut call based on untold hours of practice, experience and situation specific factors which we are almost completely unaware of, I'm going to go with b every single time. The suggestion that we somehow know better than he did what decision to make is very difficult to defend in my opinion.

BTW, I don't really understand the stat you quoted. Any chance you could explain it in a bit more detail?

Speaking about the stats specifically though, I'd be interested to see what the actual measured statistical difference is between laying up from the distance he did, and choosing to go for it instead?

It's pretty straightforward.  He scored lower over a number of rounds by going for the green in two instead of laying up.  The stats in Mark Broadie's book Every Shot Counts and Erik and Dave's book Lowest Score Wins also show it.

From @Phil McGleno : I don't know the specified time period but Phil heard this quote during the telecast.

JB went for it 44 times. He laid up 16 times.

He was -22 when he went for it. He was -1 when he didn't.

So, was he worried about carrying the water?  I don't know.  But the two guys he was playing with were not.  He's a long hitter and was in the fairway.  His score average over the quoted time period was way better when going for the green in 2 on par 5s.  The chance of getting up and down with a birdie from near the green is way better than laying up.  Harris English did it and his lie was worse and he hit into a bunker.

[iacas]

If I had to ask someone else to make this decision for me and were given the choice between a) making a decision based on one relatively simple statistical rule or b) a professional making a gut call based on untold hours of practice, experience and situation specific factors which we are almost completely unaware of, I'm going to go with b every single time. The suggestion that we somehow know better than he did what decision to make is very difficult to defend in my opinion.

Pros often get this stuff wrong. They aren't statisticians.

Justin Rose said he wanted to work on his wedge game, until Sean Foley showed him that he was already one of the best players on Tour (like top three, maybe even THE best) from inside 100 yards.

Their hunches and intuition are wrong all the time.

Now, there's still something to be said for how you feel about the shot at hand, but… not a bunch.

P.S. If he knows he goes long and left, aim a bit short and right.

[9iron]

Q. Did you this about going for it at all?

J.B. HOLMES: I thought about it, but it was on a, if it would have been five yards shorter or three or four yards longer, it was really on a down slope to the hole and it was just a lie that my tendency is to hit it a little bit further and hit a draw and long and left is dead. If you hit something over the green there, it's not really an easy up-and-down. It's not really the best access to the pin. The best lay up is to lay up and hit a wedge. I had the same thing again, I would lay up. I had the wind and that and you can't ask for much more than that.

This is why you have to go with the player himself. In JB's mind the odds were with the lay up. Someone else posted that he had gone for it 44 times before with great success, and laid up 16 times without such success. JB would have known those stats because they belonged to him, yet he still laid up. In his mind it was the correct call given the situation. I would have to believe he would NEVER lay up if it were as simple as go for it = play the hole under par, lay up = play the hole at par.

If he laid up 15 times before, why? Because on those occassions he did not believe the risk was worth the potential reward. Who is to say that had he gone for it there, or on any of the 15 prior occasions, he would not have played the hole above par? It isn't like he is trying to make the wrong call.

[Phil McGleno]

This is why you have to go with the player himself. In JB's mind the odds were with the lay up.

Players are wrong all the time. [quote name="9iron" url="/t/79971/jb-holmes-lays-up-on-72nd-hole-at-torrey-pines/18#post_1104430"]Someone else posted that he had gone for it 44 times before with great success, and laid up 16 times without such success.[/quote] I posted that because it was said on the TV. [quote name="9iron" url="/t/79971/jb-holmes-lays-up-on-72nd-hole-at-torrey-pines/18#post_1104430"]JB would have known those stats because they belonged to him[/quote] That is not true. Same reason why amateurs think they hit their 100 yard shots to ten feet. [quote name="9iron" url="/t/79971/jb-holmes-lays-up-on-72nd-hole-at-torrey-pines/18#post_1104430"]If he laid up 15 times before, why? Because on those occassions he did not believe the risk was worth the potential reward. Who is to say that had he gone for it there, or on any of the 15 prior occasions, he would not have played the hole above par? It isn't like he is trying to make the wrong call. [/quote] Pros aren't known for being the smartest guys on Tour.

[phan52]

Faldo and Nance said that most of the birdies on that hole were being made by the guys who laid up (don't have confirmation of that, just that they said it during the telecast). He had a downhill lie that was uncomfortable and he knew that, at the very least, he had to make par.

It's easy to say in hindsight that he screwed up, but I thought at the time that he made the right choice. A lot of bad things could have happened because of a downhill lie on a 235 yard shot.