What Would a PGA Tour Player Shoot at Your Home Course?

[SavvySwede]

We hosted a US Open local qualifier where I work and a former mini tour guy turned instructor shot a 65 in tournament conditions. Greens were stimping 13.5 and super firm, at my local muni sub-60 would be a definite possibility.

[Buckeyebowman]

I would think that even a run of the mill pro would shoot under par, but I think course conditions would have a lot to do with it. I actually think an average length public course that features above average conditioning would allow a pro to score better than a ratty muni with fluffy fairways and slow, bumpy greens no matter how short.

FWIW, many years ago I took my Uncle to the hottest new public course in our area. He used to be a country club pro before WWII, and was then in his mid-50's. At that time, he worked in a steel mill outside Pittsburgh. He shot 73, 1 over par, the first time he laid eyes on the place!.

[mcanadiens]

60-65, but only really because of the greens. Both regulation 18's on Kittyhawk are straightforward enough for any decent pro to power his way to a ton of GIRS or better. If they hit the course cold, the spiky, slow greens could cause em enough of an issue to miss the 50s.

 

[dove694]

I have really enjoyed reading all your responses! i kept checking the feed at work and was really intrigued. It seems that most of us believe that an average tour pro would likely shoot in the low-to-mid 60's if they played a course of moderate difficulty. one even said that their home course record was set by chris dimarco (63). good stuff!

for interests sake, I made this comparison:

a round of 65 (-7) from the black tees at my home course (71.7/131) has a differential of -6.7

that is approximately the same differential as a round of 70 (E) at TPC Four Seasons (76.0/142) where they just played the Byron Nelson this week. (a pair of 70's would have missed the cut by two shots. Jordan Spieth's final round 74 would be the "equivalent" of shooting 69 or 70 at my home course and the high round of the week (Curtis Reed 81) would roughly equivocate to a 77. Sergio shot an opening round 63 en route to victory, and this tied the low round of the week. It would statistically be the same as shooting a 59 at my home club. But these are under severely toughened Tour conditions and under tournament pressure, so in actuality they truly aren't comparable at all... this is strictly hypothetical, but that's what the feed is all about!)

a 65 at the Cranbrook Golf Club is also approximately the same differential as a round of 71 (+1) at Oakmont (77.5/147) where they will be hosting the US Open next month. (Again, I know this is not an accurate comparison because it will likely be set up much MUCH tougher than that. Probably in the neighborhood of 80.0/155 or so. I would venture to say that a pair of 71's will probably be right in the hunt heading into the weekend and would probably more closely resemble a 60 (or lower) at my home course. As previous experiments have shown, a 10 handicap wouldn't even come close to breaking 100 on a true US Open course!)

Keep the responses coming!

[dove694]

14 hours ago, Patch said:

I just went with the lowest course rating which is 68.7. Obviously at 6600 yards, on a good day, I think there could be really low 60s shot by a top 100 pro. Current course record is 64 which is a few decades old. 

Smallish greens, quality rough/hazard placements, challenging greens, and lots of trees would make it a decent test for the pro ranks looking for a low 60 score. 

What is your home course? I see you are from Southern Nevada and I am familiar with a lot of the courses down there?
@Patch

7 hours ago, SavvySwede said:

We hosted a US Open local qualifier where I work and a former mini tour guy turned instructor shot a 65 in tournament conditions. Greens were stimping 13.5 and super firm, at my local muni sub-60 would be a definite possibility.

What course is that? I think that probably sounds like Tour-ish conditions, but maybe not quite as hard. Although I don't think there is any pressure greater than a guy struggling to make it to the "big time". Playing for millions of dollars is a totally different ball game than playing for money to afford diapers and put food on the table!

@SavvySwede

Edited May 23, 2016 by dove694

[saevel25]

I would look at it this way. Even if a PGA Tour player averaged 8 feet on their approach shots they would shoot -9 on average. 

I might have to reconsider my pick. I'm not entirely sure how much slope plays into a PGA Tour players score. I took the expected strokes on each hole at the golf course I play. It totaled up to 71. On average a PGA Tour player should shoot a 71. 

That kinda make sense when the rating for the course is 73.4. Course rating is determined for a scratch golfer. 

 

[Chilli Dipper]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I would look at it this way. Even if a PGA Tour player averaged 8 feet on their approach shots they would shoot -9 on average. 

I might have to reconsider my pick. I'm not entirely sure how much slope plays into a PGA Tour players score. I took the expected strokes on each hole at the golf course I play. It totaled up to 71. On average a PGA Tour player should shoot a 71. 

That kinda make sense when the rating for the course is 73.4. Course rating is determined for a scratch golfer. 

 

The mean PGA Tour scoring average among qualifying players this year is 71.528; since course par varies on tour venues between 70, 71, and 72, it's safe to say the average tour player can expect to shoot par on any given round. That said, the pros play on courses whose course ratings are several strokes above their par: a quick search of tour venues' scorecards reveals a range between 74.0 (Harbour Town) to 78.1 (Torrey Pines-South).

So, when the average tour player shoots par in tournament play, he's actually anywhere between three and six strokes ahead of what a scratch player is expected to score from the same yardage. Basically, it comes down to the fact that the USGA defines a scratch player as one who hits the ball 250 yards off the tee, but the average PGA Tour driving distance is 288.

[phillyk]

My course is 7050yds with a 74.8/149 rating.  So while it might not be very long, it's tight off the fairway and you rarely find yourself with a flat lie, which could mean not hitting the ball as close to pins.  You'll always be sloped somehow.  I'd expect an average tour player to be around 67 here.  I actually had a couple PGA Tour Canada players come by and play the other day on their way to the first event in Vancouver, BC.  I never managed to see how they did, but I was suspecting that with the crappy-ish conditions, it wasn't going to be much better than par.

[Chilli Dipper]

8 minutes ago, phillyk said:

My course is 7050yds with a 74.8/149 rating.  So while it might not be very long, it's tight off the fairway and you rarely find yourself with a flat lie, which could mean not hitting the ball as close to pins.  You'll always be sloped somehow.  I'd expect an average tour player to be around 67 here.  I actually had a couple PGA Tour Canada players come by and play the other day on their way to the first event in Vancouver, BC.  I never managed to see how they did, but I was suspecting that with the crappy-ish conditions, it wasn't going to be much better than par.

74.8/149 is close to tour-level course rating and slope. If a 75 constitutes a good round for a scratch player, a random pro's average round wouldn't be eight strokes less than that.

[saevel25]

23 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

That said, the pros play on courses whose course ratings are several strokes above their par: a quick search of tour venues' scorecards reveals a range between 74.0 (Harbour Town) to 78.1 (Torrey Pines-South).

Harbor town looks to play 7100 yards for the tournament. It also has a rating of 75.6 for that set of tees. 

The average score this year at Harbor Town was 72.2. So the PGA tour players played that course 3.4 strokes better than a scratch player should.  

The expected strokes for Harbor Town is 71.1. So the course ended up playing 1.1 strokes harder than expected based on the yardage. That probably was caused by wind and the course set up (rough height and green speed). 

I'll still say that PGA Tour players shoot in the high 60's on average. By average I don't mean the leaders on Sunday. 

[p1n9183]

An statistical approach to the question.

HomeCourse: Back Tees 6550 Yards, really open course, the wind and greens are the primary defense.

Considering Tour Driving average distance of 290 yards to a Safe Spot in the fairway.

Avg 1st shot on Par 3 = 170 Yards (Shots Spected= 3,02 - 3 = 0,02 ) X 4

Avg 2nd Shot on Par 4 = 90 Yards (Shots Spected= 2,78 - 3 = -0,22 ) X 10

Avg 2nd Shot on Par 5 =  230 Yards (Shots Spected= 3,39 - 4 = -0,61) X 4

Score Par 3= 0,08 + Score Par 4= -2,2 + Score Par 5 = -2,64

Average Score= -4,76 (Par 72): 67,24

So i vote for the option : 65-70.

Note: they will fire in average 67,24 but some good day´s they will fire near low 60´s and not good day´s they will fire arround low 70´s.   

 

 

[Chilli Dipper]

10 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Harbor town looks to play 7100 yards for the tournament. It also has a rating of 75.6 for that set of tees. 

The average score this year at Harbor Town was 72.2. So the PGA tour players played that course 3.4 strokes better than a scratch player should.  

The expected strokes for Harbor Town is 71.1. So the course ended up playing 1.1 strokes harder than expected based on the yardage. That probably was caused by wind and the course set up (rough height and green speed). 

I'll still say that PGA Tour players shoot in the high 60's on average. By average I don't mean the leaders on Sunday. 

Harbour Town is a resort course, and the Heritage takes place right in the middle of the Bermuda-grass transition period. They don't have the time or the climate to make that course 3-4 strokes more difficult for the pros through conditioning alone. (The pins are a lot tighter than the everyday player would see, though.)

[Groucho Valentine]

Im not sure. But I'm assuming pretty low, in the low 60s. I don't have a home course now, per sea, but where i play the most is pretty flat and only 6600 from the back tees. The length in the course is mostly in the par 3's, which have 3 over 210.  But overall, the small greens is the courses' only defense. I think the rating from back there is 70. 

I played with a guy during sectional US open qualifying a couple of years ago (he may have just been a web.com player) but he shot under 140 on a course he had never seen until he walked up to the first tee that morning. Those guys are good. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by Groucho Valentine

[Tee2Trees]

Home course is Bridges in Madison, WI and it is pretty challenging from the tips.  It is built on marshland with numerous ponds and tall foliage so fairway misses can be extremely penal.  A few of the par 4's are cupcakes but then there are a couple that measure 450+ yds.  Two of the par 5's are 590 yds and two of the par 3s are 190 yds.  Hole #10 gives the player an option of a 250 yd carry into a medium-width fairway with OB on both sides, or a 210 yd layup that leaves 190 yd to the green.  I think anyone can be tested at this course, pro or otherwise.

[Golfingdad]

The back tees are 7,003, 73.8, 136 (par 72)  Weather is almost never an issue.  Rough is manageable.  The holes that prove tricky for those of us who aren't PGA Tour long would be completely overpowered by those guys.  (#12 is a tricky short, 342 yd. par 4 with a small landing area at 250, that shrinks as you club down - these guys would just drive near or onto the green, I imagine)  All of the par 5's are reachable for those guys as well.

On a good day, I imagine PGA Tour players would shoot 66-68 without even breaking a sweat or making any putts.  65 or less if they were knocking down pins and/or putts were falling, and 69-70 on a bad day.

A tournament here would probably have a cut in the -4 to -5 (or even better) range, I would guess.

EDIT:  To be honest, if there were a PGA tournament there, and I was involved in setting it up, the first thing I'd do is switch the 1st hole and 13th hole to blue tees and call them par 4's.  Stroke average would go down by a tiny fraction of a stroke but "to par" scores at the end of the tournament would come up by 8, thus making our course look a little bit more respectable. 

[No Mulligans]

I guess Torrey Pines is as much of a home course as I have as I do play there and it's only about 6 miles from my house.

Even par on the south about 3 under on the north in tournament conditions.  Maybe 3 strokes better in everyday conditions given they play from the back tees.

[mchepp]

From the black tees and average weather (scratch that, because that would be rainy) average summer weather then under 70 for sure, and a stretch to get to under 65 the first time playing it. My guess would be 66. After playing 3-4 times the 60-65 range. The key would be avoiding the trees. 

The main reason they would get better was they would eventually zero in on the par 5's, figure out how to drive 1 or 2 of the par 4's and then be playing a par 65-68 golf course. 

[natureboy]

While I definitely agree that PGA setups - esp. Majors - are tougher than everyday course setups there are a few pluses that pros get in tournaments that may slighty offset some of the difficulty that they would be less likely to find on our typical home courses:

• perfectly manicured bunkers with great sand
• very well groomed and consistent greens
• generally level tee boxes
• relatively few lost balls that aren't in water hazards (due to spectators, tv crews, & marshalls) unless the course is heavily treed or has heavy brush
• rough trampled by spectators allowing cleaner contact on some shots that would otherwise be deep rough
• galleries acting as backstops behind or to the side of greens

Compared to the raw difficulty of the courses the pros face, these aren't much, but it's possible they affect their games slightly.