2018 Masters Tournament Discussion Topic

[iacas]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BglSrWbn-bH/

 

[MuniGrit]

On 3/20/2018 at 7:38 PM, ChrisP said:

Actually just found Brian Harman at 80/1 and put $7 on him. Not sure there's a better bargain out there. Harman has contended in a lot of tourneys the last several months and he's a "Georgia lefty" going to Augusta. Lefties have 6 green jackets since 2003.

A part of me wants to take Rickie Fowler. I've been putting money on him every major since 2015 thinking this is going to be his breakout major. I'm afraid not to bet him because I know the one I don't bet him is the one he's going to win. So I'll prolly put $10 on him. 

I'm in a survivor pool every year where you have to pick 5 different guys for each major + Players, and don't think I've ever gone into a major more confused on who to pick. So many good players playing well. Thinking Tiger/Rose/Thomas and then maybe throw in a sleeper or two like Harman, Casey, Reed or Leishman. Might take a flier on DJ, too, as I do feel like he's going under the radar.

I got some action on bets I placed on a Vegas trip a few weeks ago. Rose is my guy I think will win but my flyers were Hoffman, Phil, Louie O, and got great value on Lieshman. I have a couple others I just don't remember.

[The Hook Meister]

I don't think Tiger is all together ready, but he is close.

[3jacker]

My bold prediction that I'm not bold enough to place any money on whatsoever:

Angel Cabrera casually swings by and picks up another major.   Probably not doing much right now, he's due, probably getting bored again.

[onthehunt526]

On 3/22/2018 at 4:56 PM, The Hook Meister said:

I don't think Tiger is all together ready, but he is close.

Real close.

If he hits his irons in birdie range, and gives his self 16 legitimate opportunities to birdie the par-5s, converts 12 and plays the other 56 holes in level par, he has a helluva chance to win. This isn't going to be a 15 or 16 under wins the Masters year. I think it will be double digits, but Tiger needs to use his length on the par-5s.

[MacDutch]

On 16-3-2018 at 7:49 PM, MacDutch said:

Off course Tiger can win the Masters, but I think its too early. Got him in the top 20.

Changed my mind. I think Tiger wil be in contention on sunday. Just as Rose, Rory, Spieth and Sergio. Winner Spieth.

[HJJ003]

I went with Dustin, Rory or Spieth at first, but in truth I really think Justin Rose will get his second major and first green jacket. He is playing too well lately and is due for a win. Tiger will Card a solid top 10. 

[Dr. Manhattan]

1 hour ago, HJJ003 said:

I went with Dustin, Rory or Spieth at first, but in truth I really think Justin Rose will get his second major and first green jacket. He is playing too well lately and is due for a win. Tiger will Card a solid top 10. 

 

Rose was damn close to winning last year. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins this year. He’s in great form right now. 

[HJJ003]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Manhattan said:

 

Rose was damn close to winning last year. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins this year. He’s in great form right now. 

Agreed and redemption always makes for a great storyline. 

[onthehunt526]

1 hour ago, HJJ003 said:

I went with Dustin, Rory or Spieth at first, but in truth I really think Justin Rose will get his second major and first green jacket. He is playing too well lately and is due for a win. Tiger will Card a solid top 10. 

What's a solid Top 10? 7th? He just runs out of gas on a charge? 

Rose is playing well, he could win. 

I'm still going with Tiger. It's going to be a hell of a Christmas present for golf fans. Tiger really wants to win, you can tell. Will someone else make it tough? Of course. This isn't the Buick Open, it's a tradition unlike any other, The Masters. 

If Tiger takes care of the par-5s (-12 or better), plays the rest of the course in level par, he will be right there. And no big hiccups around Amen Corner.

[HJJ003]

2 minutes ago, onthehunt526 said:

What's a solid Top 10? 7th? He just runs out of gas on a charge? 

Rose is playing well, he could win. 

I'm still going with Tiger. It's going to be a hell of a Christmas present for golf fans. Tiger really wants to win, you can tell. Will someone else make it tough? Of course. This isn't the Buick Open, it's a tradition unlike any other, The Masters. 

If Tiger takes care of the par-5s (-12 or better), plays the rest of the course in level par, he will be right there. And no big hiccups around Amen Corner.

I think it will be solid due to the fact the he will hang around there all week. Will never look out of the picture, and will be close enough to entertain the heck out of us. I actually hope your right and he does pull it off. What a treat that would be. However, he needs the driver and that is one part of his game that I don’t think is ready yet. It would be pretty cool to see it happen though. 

[onthehunt526]

19 minutes ago, HJJ003 said:

I think it will be solid due to the fact the he will hang around there all week. Will never look out of the picture, and will be close enough to entertain the heck out of us. I actually hope your right and he does pull it off. What a treat that would be. However, he needs the driver and that is one part of his game that I don’t think is ready yet. It would be pretty cool to see it happen though. 

I offered to lend him that 3-wood shaft I found at Dick's

[Shorty]

11 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

Real close.

If he hits his irons in birdie range, and gives his self 16 legitimate opportunities to birdie the par-5s, converts 12 and plays the other 56 holes in level par, he has a helluva chance to win. This isn't going to be a 15 or 16 under wins the Masters year. I think it will be double digits, but Tiger needs to use his length on the par-5s.

Zac Johnson was 11 under on par 5s in his win without going for a single one in two  in his victory. If Tiger plays well he'll have plenty of birdie opportunities on par 5s no matteer how much length he uses. He won't be relying on it.

How can you "think" the winning score will be double digits? It may well be, but that is guessing, just as guessing that  Rose "could" win because he is playing well. No prizes for identifying Justin Rose as a contender. It's a bit like saying that Tiger "could" win if he doesn't have any nightmare holes and putts, drives and chips well along with straight driving. If Tiger plays well, it goes without saying he will have a chance.

 

Edited March 25, 2018 by Shorty

[Chanceman]

A past winner will probably win. Its a course where local knowledge rather than absolute talent usually wins out. So Rahm is up against it and also Fleetwood. Maybe even McIlroy. The likely lads are Woods, Mickelson, Watson, and Spieth. Day is the dark horse becuse of his high ball flight and good putting.

[Zeph]

7 minutes ago, Chanceman said:

A past winner will probably win. Its a course where local knowledge rather than absolute talent usually wins out.

I've seen this argument before, but is it accurate?

A lot of players has played the course many times. You don't play it more just because you've won it, excluding those that miss the cut.

 

Here's a list of the past 11 champions, two of which has multiple wins. The 9 other tournaments were won by first-timers.

 

2007: Zach Johnson (1)
2008: Trevor Immelman (1)
2009: Angel Cabrera (1)
2010: Phil Mickelson (3)
2011: Charl Scwartzel (1)
2012: Bubba Watson (1)
2013: Adam Scott (1)
2014: Bubba Watson (2)
2015: Jordan Spieth (1)
2016: Danny Willett (1)
2017: Sergio Garcia (1)

[onthehunt526]

1 hour ago, Shorty said:

Zac Johnson was 11 under on par 5s in his win without going for a single one in two  in his victory. If Tiger plays well he'll have plenty of birdie opportunities on par 5s no matteer how much length he uses. He won't be relying on it.

How can you "think" the winning score will be double digits? It may well be, but that is guessing, just as guessing that  Rose "could" win because he is playing well. No prizes for identifying Justin Rose as a contender. It's a bit like saying that Tiger "could" win if he doesn't have any nightmare holes and putts, drives and chips well along with straight driving. If Tiger plays well, it goes without saying he will have a chance.

 

Well, the trend is toward double digits under par. It did play difficult last year and the year before (-9, Garcia in a playoff, -5, Willett in '16). I'm not necessarily saying by my estimation that say -12 will be the winning score, but -12 will win you a lot of Masters. I think all but '53, '64 (playoff with Arnie) '65, '75 (though you'd be in a playoff with Jack), '76, '80, '92, '95, '97, 2001, '02(playoff with Tiger), '05, '09 (piece of the playoff) '10, '11 and '15. That's basically 20% of the Masters 276 (-12) or better won. 

I won't go as far as saying 276 will win but if you like up all 81 winning 72 hole scores in a line, you'd have winning scores between 270 (-18) and 289 (+1). There may have been some low scores in the 276 range before Hogan's 274 in 1953 but I started there. So then it's almost a quarter of the last 65 Masters Tournaments. 

So through statistical analysis I would conclude that the winning score will be somewhere between 276 and 279 (-12 to -9, respectively)

[Vinsk]

The fact that Danny Willet won shows the difficulty in predictions. Sunday at The Masters is definitely my favorite sporting event. Maybe a new thread, probably not necessary, but I’m curious who are your top 5 ‘would like to see win?’ 

1. Tiger 2. Phil 3. Fowler 4. DJ 5. Rose

[saevel25]

7 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

he fact that Danny Willet won shows the difficulty in predictions.

The Masters might be one of the more consistent to predict, compared to how difficult it is to predict sporting outcomes anyways. The course hardly changes. The weather is fairly predictable. Jordan Spieth would have won if he didn’t collapse. 

The most unpredictable is The Open.