How Many Mulligans Would You Need To Win The US Open?

[Shindig]

I'm glad this thread got bumped because I didn't see it first time through.

I couldn't shoot -4 at that course in those conditions, even untimed, with exhaustion turned off (is that an option), and unlimited mulligans.  I think I could shoot -4 at my home course with unlimited time and mulligans, even dealing with exhaustion.  But I can reach all my par-5s in three, par-3s in one, and can make smart plays on enough par-4s (which maybe I should try doing during a round).

[Big C]

34 minutes ago, Shindig said:

I'm glad this thread got bumped because I didn't see it first time through.

I couldn't shoot -4 at that course in those conditions, even untimed, with exhaustion turned off (is that an option), and unlimited mulligans.  I think I could shoot -4 at my home course with unlimited time and mulligans, even dealing with exhaustion.  But I can reach all my par-5s in three, par-3s in one, and can make smart plays on enough par-4s (which maybe I should try doing during a round).

I think you are overestimating the difficulty a bit. There will probably be a handful of holes (maybe 4?) where you cannot hit the green in regulation due to length. And maybe 2 more where a GIR will take a perfect approach, so you will gladly settle for a near GIR. Even on those 6 holes, you will never bogey. It's just not that hard for a decent golf to "rapid fire" chips or pitches until one of them gets close to the flag.

That leaves 12 putts for birdie. 4 may be nearly impossible. No biggie - you will never 3 putt. Of the remaining 8, even a marginal putter can hole a long putt with enough time and chances. Even if you never hit one stiff to tap in range, you will still make a couple of 20-30 footers if you keep rolling putts over and over on the same line.

 

[Golfingdad]

Seems like a lot of people really underestimating the value of unlimited mulligans in this thread.

The only difficult parts would be strategy on the tougher holes; I.e. not leaving yourself in an impossible position for your third on the unreachables.  And time management; at what point do you give up trying to hole long birdie putts and just accept your par?

Otherwise, this seems pretty simple. 😉

Edited June 26, 2018 by Golfingdad

[Aflighter]

Maybe that could be a new type of game.How many mulligans it takes to shoot par or better each round.Of course the guys behind you might not like it.

[Killa]

5 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

Seems like a lot of people really underestimating the value of unlimited mulligans in this thread.

The only difficult parts would be strategy on the tougher holes; I.e. not leaving yourself in an impossible position for your third on the unreachables.  And time management; at what point do you give up trying to hole long birdie putts and just accept your par?

Otherwise, this seems pretty simple. 😉

I don’t think you ever need to give up on a putt unless it’s like 70 feet. But you won’t have such a putt as you’ll mulligan your approach.

If you would need to walk alone, and reset the ball each time yourself then it’s impossible for most players. 

If you got caddies then no problem at the least if you can reach at least 4 GIR. 

If you have someone just placing ball after ball on your spot to putt rapidliy one after another you don’t even need to read greens. Hit one, miss by 20 feet, adjust, hit another miss by 10 feet, adjust, rinse repeat. Takes about 2 seconds per attempt...

[boogielicious]

11 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

Seems like a lot of people really underestimating the value of unlimited mulligans in this thread.

The only difficult parts would be strategy on the tougher holes; I.e. not leaving yourself in an impossible position for your third on the unreachables.  And time management; at what point do you give up trying to hole long birdie putts and just accept your par?

Otherwise, this seems pretty simple. 😉

It's not the mulligans for me, it would be the distance. Even if I hit a perfect drive for me (230), the 500+ yard par fours are really par 5 for me. So I could hit a perfect drive, perfect 3 wood (210) and still be 60 yards from the green. Then I would need an up and down to par. From 60, I may need 10 shots to get close enough to hit the putt.

[billchao]

I could probably do it. I'd need a lot of golf balls, though

[JonMA1]

42 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

It's not the mulligans for me, it would be the distance. 

Exactly. There are not enough hours in the day or enough golf balls in New York for me to accomplish this.

[Killa]

56 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

It's not the mulligans for me, it would be the distance. Even if I hit a perfect drive for me (230), the 500+ yard par fours are really par 5 for me. So I could hit a perfect drive, perfect 3 wood (210) and still be 60 yards from the green. Then I would need an up and down to par. From 60, I may need 10 shots to get close enough to hit the putt.

IMO that’s exactly where you are wrong. From 60 it’s almost impossible to need more than 2 shots. You’ll take a couple of pitches to get within 20 feet and you’ll hole the putt in less than 2 minutes. You just need to decide which holes you want to get the birdies on and then take pars on the rest and move on. 

[Shindig]

16 hours ago, Big C said:

I think you are overestimating the difficulty a bit. There will probably be a handful of holes (maybe 4?) where you cannot hit the green in regulation due to length. And maybe 2 more where a GIR will take a perfect approach, so you will gladly settle for a near GIR. Even on those 6 holes, you will never bogey. It's just not that hard for a decent golf to "rapid fire" chips or pitches until one of them gets close to the flag.

That leaves 12 putts for birdie. 4 may be nearly impossible. No biggie - you will never 3 putt. Of the remaining 8, even a marginal putter can hole a long putt with enough time and chances. Even if you never hit one stiff to tap in range, you will still make a couple of 20-30 footers if you keep rolling putts over and over on the same line.

 

This is a good point.  Looking at the US Open distances;  an above-average but not unbelievably good drive for me is 225 yards, and I recently hit 13/14 fairways at a Pete Dye course while averaging some good distance, so maybe my long game isn't as off as I thought.  My best 4-wood this calendar year was 206 yards, and an above-average would be 200, which I think I can get back to when I fix whatever's going on poorly with my swing at the moment.  My putting and pitching have improved lately and I've made some good up and downs in tournaments from 30-50 yards off (I have also had holes with 3-4 short game shots, but those aren't positions I'd be in if I had mulligans available).

There are four par-4s reachable in two for me under these conditions, plus hole 8 where I might be able to get a good near-GIR and be putting from off (I forget how the front of that green looks).  So, sure, with a few mulligans, I could believably play those in par.

The first par-3, I would need to hit a good drive on up;  the other three are reachable with stock non-driver distances, so I believe I could par all of those within this context.  

So there's nine holes I could make par on.

The other seven par-4s are beyond driver 4-wood for me on the scorecard.  A *great* driver 4-wood on each of those would leave me between 40 and 95 yards off.  I've made it down in two from that distance in my life, some recently (three up-and-downs from 40+ yards out in tournaments in the past week alone).

The two par-5s... played perfectly for my first two shots leave me 160 yards (a 5-iron) and 191 yards (a 4-wood or maybe utility metal) in.  I've made it down in two from those distances at some point in my life, including at least once recently I can think of for the 5-iron.  I definitely believe I could get it down in three from these distances.

So... assuming I don't hit a shot luckily stiff, there are 11 holes where, given the mulligans (of which I'd use plenty on second and third shots, plus the first putt), I can play to par via GIR or near-GIR.  The other seven... I'd spend an awful lot of mulligans figuring out a good position for my third to be played from, and then playing that third one.  Enough and I'd eventually hit those pitches near enough to the pin to make the putt, especially since I don't have to make the putt first try. 

Okay, I believe I could shoot even with enough time, mulligans, and golf balls.  Short of some way to never be exhausted, I don't see a way any of those holes are birdie holes for me except by some luck. 

Wait.  I'm imagining that I get it on the green and am satisfied when I'm on in regulation and within, say, 25 feet.  Maybe that's how I'd have to play this, maybe it isn't.  But I can use mulligans on putts, so going back, yeah, I can putt the same 20 footer a few times and possibly make it.

[amished]

8 minutes ago, Shindig said:

Wait.  I'm imagining that I get it on the green and am satisfied when I'm on in regulation and within, say, 25 feet.  Maybe that's how I'd have to play this, maybe it isn't.  But I can use mulligans on putts, so going back, yeah, I can putt the same 20 footer a few times and possibly make it.

I think that was my mistake thinking early on that I couldn't do it as well.  A GIR will get you a par.  With a better shot in there, a 10'-15' (maybe even 25') GIR will get you a birdie and you only need to find 3-4 of them on the course.  Watching the video, the guy ended up hitting 400 golf shots that day, but it seemed like half of those were putts that shouldn't wear you down all that much.  I think it's possible, and it'd be something that I would want to try on my home course late on a Sunday afternoon or something when nobody is around.  Even if I limited myself to 5 mulligans per non-putt (to ensure I had the balls available and could find them), I think I could break par there.

Edited June 27, 2018 by amished

[iacas]

@Shindig, you're not considering (it seems) that some of the longer holes might also be downhill, or downwind, or both. Or that the fairways bounce and roll out a lot further than the courses you might play.

[Shindig]

Just now, iacas said:

@Shindig, you're not considering (it seems) that some of the longer holes might also be downhill, or downwind, or both. Or that the fairways bounce and roll out a lot further than the courses you might play.

Good point.  I was picturing a flat course, which the rounds a few weeks ago obviously weren't on.

[allenc]

1 hour ago, Shindig said:

 But I can use mulligans on putts, so going back, yeah, I can putt the same 20 footer a few times and possibly make it.

You will definitely make it.  And you will make 100% of your 30 footers as well in just a couple minutes.  That’s the main reason this is easy.

[Golfingdad]

5 hours ago, boogielicious said:

It's not the mulligans for me, it would be the distance. Even if I hit a perfect drive for me (230), the 500+ yard par fours are really par 5 for me. So I could hit a perfect drive, perfect 3 wood (210) and still be 60 yards from the green. Then I would need an up and down to par. From 60, I may need 10 shots to get close enough to hit the putt.

These are the kind of holes where strategy would become interesting.  At what point do you accept your pitch shot result?  Wait for a tap in?  Stop when you have a 25 footer uphill?  I don’t know.

Also, this brings the “rules” into play too.  When do you lose your opportunity to keep hitting mulligans? After you leave the spot?  Or not until you’ve hit the next shot?   If you get up to the green and realize you’re in an jmpossible position can you go back?  I know it’s silly, but it’s a fun experiment to ponder. 🙂

[dsc123]

6 hours ago, boogielicious said:

It's not the mulligans for me, it would be the distance. Even if I hit a perfect drive for me (230), the 500+ yard par fours are really par 5 for me. So I could hit a perfect drive, perfect 3 wood (210) and still be 60 yards from the green. Then I would need an up and down to par. From 60, I may need 10 shots to get close enough to hit the putt. 

Yeah, but you could take 10 shots to get close enough. 

 

48 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

These are the kind of holes where strategy would become interesting.  At what point do you accept your pitch shot result?  Wait for a tap in?  Stop when you have a 25 footer uphill?  I don’t know. 

Also, this brings the “rules” into play too.  When do you lose your opportunity to keep hitting mulligans? After you leave the spot?  Or not until you’ve hit the next shot?   If you get up to the green and realize you’re in an jmpossible position can you go back?  I know it’s silly, but it’s a fun experiment to ponder. 🙂

Maybe send out a forecaddy armed with a flag to signal a good shot 😉

[boogielicious]

50 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

These are the kind of holes where strategy would become interesting.  At what point do you accept your pitch shot result?  Wait for a tap in?  Stop when you have a 25 footer uphill?  I don’t know.

Also, this brings the “rules” into play too.  When do you lose your opportunity to keep hitting mulligans? After you leave the spot?  Or not until you’ve hit the next shot?   If you get up to the green and realize you’re in an jmpossible position can you go back?  I know it’s silly, but it’s a fun experiment to ponder. 🙂

 

4 minutes ago, dsc123 said:

Yeah, but you could take 10 shots to get close enough. 

 

Maybe send out a forecaddy armed with a flag to signal a good shot 😉

It would be like the movie Groundhog Day. We'd go in a 14 handicap, come out a US Open Winner.

[billchao]

1 hour ago, Golfingdad said:

These are the kind of holes where strategy would become interesting.  At what point do you accept your pitch shot result?  Wait for a tap in?  Stop when you have a 25 footer uphill?  I don’t know.

I'd stop pitching anytime I get inside 8-10' or so. Odds are I'd save more time trying to hole out that putt than keep pitching for a tap-in.

1 hour ago, Golfingdad said:

Also, this brings the “rules” into play too.  When do you lose your opportunity to keep hitting mulligans? After you leave the spot?  Or not until you’ve hit the next shot?   If you get up to the green and realize you’re in an jmpossible position can you go back?  I know it’s silly, but it’s a fun experiment to ponder. 🙂

Given that this is still golf (kind of), would guess at any time before another stroke is played, similar to proceeding under stroke and distance (27-1).

So theoretically you could drive all the way to your ball, decide you don't like it, and drive back to replay the shot.

31 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

It would be like the movie Groundhog Day. We'd go in a 14 handicap, come out a US Open Winner.

Yet you still won't be as good as Kim Jong Il.