Putting with the Flagstick In? - New 2019 Rules

[iacas]

I'll summarize their charts a bit differently:

Low-COR Stick Center of the Hole Dist. In Out 3' 100% 100% 6' 100% 35% 9' 80% 5%   Off-Center Dist. In Out 3' 85% 40% 6' 40% 10% 9' 0% 0%   Combined Average Dist. In Out 3' 92.5% 70% 6' 70% 22.5% 9' 40% 2.5%

High-COR Stick Center of the Hole Dist. In Out 3' 100% 100% 6' 100% 35% 9' 70% 5%   Off-Center Dist. In Out 3' 60% 40% 6' 15% 10% 9' 0% 0%   Combined Average Dist. In Out 3' 80% 70% 6' 57.5% 22.5% 9' 35% 2.5%

I don't like that their sample size was only 20 putts per situation. That means they rolled only 20 x 12 x 2 = 480 putts. I rolled about 5x that number, although I only had one flagstick (it was a heavier, higher CoR flagstick).

Also, I focused mostly on putts that rolled about 7' by or less, as 9' is a pretty bad miss (though of course, it still happens on golf courses).

Center strikes there's almost never a reason to take it out, and on the edges, the advantage is less, but it's still an advantage.

[iacas]

I was emailed by a Wall Street Journal writer who is doing a piece on the flagstick rule and below is the majority of the email I sent him in response. (I'll also mark any corrections I have to make in red.)

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I'm sure you may have seen the MyGolfSpy test results published late yesterday: https://mygolfspy.com/flagstick-in-flagstick-out-2019-new-golf-rules/

My testing was similar to theirs except that:

• I rolled the ball from closer to the hole than they show in their picture. From even as little as 5' away, a ball can enter the hole +/- over 1/4" from where you've aimed it.
• I only tested balls that rolled about 3-6' past the hole, as 9' is starting to get ridiculous for putting (when Dave Pelz tested it back in the 90s, the flagstick could only really be left in for chips, and 9' is more reasonable for chip shots).
• I rolled significantly more balls than MyGolfSpy did. They rolled 20 per situation, or about 480 putts. I rolled over 2000. Lou Stagner rolled about 2500, per his Tweet.
• I measured at more points than MGS. I measured at dead center, 1/4" off center, 1/2", 3/4", and 1" (at 1.1" off center the ball doesn't touch a 1/2" diameter flagstick).

My results in a nutshell:

• There's a distinct advantage when the balls hit the flagstick versus when they don't.
• Because a ball can still go in at 6' past speed when hitting the center of the hole, the biggest advantages lie to hitting a ball just off center a little - 1/2" off center had the biggest gains in my tests, with 1/4" and 3/4" next. At higher speeds hitting the center would ramp up considerably, though, as a putt going 7' by will almost never go in the hole even if dead center, but will still go in the majority of the time with the flagstick in.
• I didn't note the distances of the average miss, but it was exceedingly clear that when a putt missed with the flagstick in the hole, it remained MUCH closer to the hole than the putts without the flagstick in the hole. Anecdotally, a putt hit with 6' by speed 3/4" from the center of the hole might roll four feet away, a putt length that's missed 10-20% of the time by amateur golfers, yet with the flagstick in the hole it remained at a tap-in length (under 2').
• There are times when the flagstick appeared to kick a ball out that would have gone in, but that was balanced by the times when a ball seems likely to miss but the flagstick takes off just enough speed that it can fall in. Differences there may be due to just slight differences in exactly what little piece of dirt or grass or whatever the ball hit, or how angled the stick was at the moment the ball hit it.
• I did not test a flagstick leaning away or toward. I have no reason to doubt what Dave Pelz said years ago: a flagstick leaning slightly toward actually helps more; it deflects the ball downward and into the hole.

In other words, the flagstick offers an advantage on putts that are going over 3' beyond the hole (flat green, stimp ~9.5). For putts that would travel < 3' beyond the hole, there's no advantage or disadvantage.

That said, there are other small points that lead toward an advantage:

• A flagstick in provides even more fine-grained aiming points on shorter putts. A golfer could aim "right edge of the flagstick" or "between the flagstick and the edge of the cup" and that's more precise than aiming at an empty hole.
• The shadow of the flagstick can sometimes be on or near your line and provide for an aim aid from even 10+ feet away.
• Players who like to "take the break out" and hit a putt more firmly now have the flagstick to act as a "backstop" of sorts, helping them more.
• From farther distances, the flagstick has shown to aid players in depth/distance perception, making it easier to get your longer putts closer to the hole. (This is why I advise my players, both students and my college team, to have the flagstick tended when they're far away, even if they can see the hole.)

Two other thoughts, if I may, with the last one here being somewhat important as it speaks to the failure of the Ruling Bodies.

2. Not only are putts that would roll 3'+ by if they missed a concern, putts have to also hit the middle 2.2" of the hole (1.1" from center). The hole is 4.25" wide, but a ball that hits the outer inch of the hole is completely unaffected by the flagstick. A putt that truly lips out or lips in wouldn't even touch a non-leaning flagstick, and so those results are unaffected.

In other words, I don't expect this to have a BIG change in golf. The two criteria are pretty rare:
- Putt must be going 3+ feet beyond the hole.
- The center of the ball must roll over middle 2.2" of the hole.
All other putts are completely unaffected by whether the flagstick is in or out.

That said, imagine how much this scenario would play out differently:
Two players competing and going head to head come down to the final hole. Both hit their approach shots to about 30'. The first player, the better putter, lags his putt to a foot. The second player, a poor putter (at least in this case), hits his ball too hard, hard enough that it would go 7' past the hole if he misses, but instead it smacks the flagstick and drops for the victory, when previously the best he could have hoped for was to make a 7' putt to tie.

All of the above segues into what I think may be the biggest issue in the whole thing: negligence by the USGA/R&A in changing this particular rule:

3. The USGA/R&A (Ruling Bodies) stated when they first proposed the Rules change and again when they finalized it that there was no advantage or disadvantage to having the flagstick in or out. They also never showed any tests and this statement defied what we'd always held to be true, and what tests are now showing to be true: that there IS an ADVANTAGE to leaving the flagstick in.

And the thing is, hitting the flagstick from a putt on the putting green was not penalized for about eight or twelve years around 1958, and then a penalty was added, so why go back? Green speeds changed, but the hole size is still the same so a ball arriving at the hole with the same speed and location will still fall or not just as often as in 1958.

The Ruling Bodies used the "time savings" as the reason for this change, but which will take more time:

• Someone occasionally having to wait to putt when they're well away from the hole and their buddies are too busy raking a bunker or something to tend or pull the flag, or
• Groups with people of different opinions taking the flagstick out and putting it back in even once or twice per green 18 times per round?

I could make the argument that this flagstick rule, because people are slow to accept the results of the studies being conducted on this, will actually slow play down more than it speeds up play. Only in groups of golfers who basically never take the flagstick out will the pace of play be increased.

Dave Wedzik and I maintained throughout the commentary period a website at flagstickrule.com that voiced some fairly vehement opposition to this rules change. I emailed several USGA representatives and members of the Rules committee that I'd met and knew personally, and provided feedback via the commentary forms the USGA/R&A made available to the public. In each I expressed my displeasure with this rules change, and implored them to conduct some actual studies or tests so that they could see that their "no advantage or disadvantage" line was incorrect.

They were derelict in their duties, in my opinion, and have changed golf at a fundamental level. As the brief time in the 50s, we no longer play to a hole, we play to a backstop. The poorer putters out there have gained on the better putters, because they're most likely to need the flagstick to help stop or slow a putt struck a bit too firmly. Imagine if the Masters or U.S. Open this year comes down to the last hole and someone smashes a ball off the flagstick to win by a shot!

I thought that there was almost no way that this proposed rules change would stick, and yet it did, so while I'd like to think that this rules change will be reversed to what we've known for decades, my hopes are rather slim.

I encouraged members of my site, The Sand Trap .com, to write too, and many of them did as well. They wrote to say the same types of things: that leaving the flagstick in IS an advantage, and that the Ruling bodies should actually look at testing this rather than relying on a guess.

And again, I'm weighing all of this against the understanding that these types of outcome-changing events are going to be rare: again, the putt has to be traveling 3+ feet (on the PGA Tour 4+ feet) beyond the hole and be within 1.1" of the center of the cup to even matter.

But hey, you can flip a coin and get heads five times in a row, and so in the final round of a major, there is a chance that someone that someone smashes a ball off a flagstick and in two or even three times. That's a very real change, both in standing in a tournament and in money earned.

In a world where "every shot counts," I'm disappointed that the Ruling bodies didn't even test their basic assumption, particularly when the only actual testing done to that point (the Pelz study from the 90s) said the opposite and what we now see as the truth: leaving the flagstick in is an advantage.

Dave and I have our recommendations here: https://lowestscorewins.com/tips/putting-with-the-flagstick-in.

[boogielicious]

Nice post and e-mail @iacas.

[Vinsk]

I agree. Excellent and well presented. 

[ChetlovesMer]

I guess I'm late to the party here. I just read the MyGolfSpy results. 

Good enough for me. I'm leaving it in. 

[gbogey]

So a question - I assume that one can still have the flag stick tended like before.  If the flag is leaning towards you in a manner that you don't like, can you have the flag tended such that it is pulled straight up to allow the ball to fall in?

[iacas]

4 minutes ago, gbogey said:

So a question - I assume that one can still have the flag stick tended like before.  If the flag is leaning towards you in a manner that you don't like, can you have the flag tended such that it is pulled straight up to allow the ball to fall in?

That's not "tending" the flagstick.

You can straighten out a flagstick or leave it leaning as you found it. You cannot take a flagstick that's straight and make it lean.

[Missouri Swede]

7 minutes ago, gbogey said:

So a question - I assume that one can still have the flag stick tended like before.  If the flag is leaning towards you in a manner that you don't like, can you have the flag tended such that it is pulled straight up to allow the ball to fall in?

You can have it tended in the old sense— by having it removed. From rule 13.2:

Quote

Purpose of Rule: This Rule covers the player’s choices for dealing with the flagstick. The player may leave the flagstick in the hole or have it removed (which includes having someone attend the flagstick and remove it after the ball is played), but must decide before making a stroke. There is normally no penalty if a ball in motion hits the flagstick.

 

[rehmwa]

Yeah, in other words, you can't have someone hold the flag if you choose to leave it in.  (especially at the moment of contact).  Kind of a 'no kidding' kind of thing.

[iacas]

Golf’s New Conundrum: Flagstick In or Out?

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A new rule change has left golfers pondering whether leaving the flagstick in the hole might increase their likelihood of sinking putts.

LSW site linked to in this one.

I found the results of my testing done last year, too, while looking around for my old TI-83 so my daughter can use it for her AP Stats class.

[iacas]

BTW, on the PGA Tour, a friend and I estimate that this could affect 300-700 putts per year. Consider:

• Over 10,000 putts are hit from outside 10' that go 4' beyond the hole each year on the PGA Tour.
• The above number doesn't include putts that hit the back or side of the hole and stay within 4', but would have gone 4+' beyond.
• What percentage of those would have hit the stick?

That's a big number.

[gbogey]

37 minutes ago, iacas said:

BTW, on the PGA Tour, a friend and I estimate that this could affect 300-700 putts per year. Consider:

• Over 10,000 putts are hit from outside 10' that go 4' beyond the hole each year on the PGA Tour.
• The above number doesn't include putts that hit the back or side of the hole and stay within 4', but would have gone 4+' beyond.
• What percentage of those would have hit the stick?

That's a big number.

Given that there are something like +15000 rounds per year on the PGA tour this isn't sounding like a big number - 700 putts is like .05 putts per round.  

I think what we all have to remember is for the flag to help get the ball in the hole the ball still needs to hit the hole - even for pros not a high percentage from longer distances.

[iacas]

38 minutes ago, gbogey said:

Given that there are something like +15000 rounds per year on the PGA tour this isn't sounding like a big number - 700 putts is like .05 putts per round.

700 shots is a lot of shots to be affected by something like the flagstick rule. I consider that to be a SIGNIFICANT difference.

41 minutes ago, gbogey said:

I think what we all have to remember is for the flag to help get the ball in the hole the ball still needs to hit the hole - even for pros not a high percentage from longer distances.

It's not, but again, it's not like these things get spread out evenly. Someone could save multiple shots per round and win a tournament one day, or on the final green of a major someone who hits a less skillful putt could win over someone who hits a more skillful putt because of this completely unnecessary change to the Rules of Golf.

I get that it's a small percentage, but it was completely unnecessary and may have even been counter-productive: Quick perusal of the comments on the WSJ article indicate that it may actually SLOW the pace of play, which I've been saying for well over a year now.

[gbogey]

I'm not a fan of the rule but I'm not sure it changes much when it come to results as how many times in an average round does the ball hit the cup and not go in.

As to pace of play, very limited experience so far but:

Old method - flag is in until everyone is on green.  Flag removed, then long lag putts, shorter putts, etc.

New method - flag stays in while long lag putts are taken.  Once all players are within 10-15 feet, flag often gets pulled. Gut feeling is that longer lag putts are being taken a little quicker under new rules.

So overall a very slight improvement in pace of play.  But if it gets to the point where this guy wants in out and next guy doesn't, forget about it. Time to find new playing partners.

[iacas]

24 minutes ago, gbogey said:

I'm not a fan of the rule but I'm not sure it changes much when it come to results as how many times in an average round does the ball hit the cup and not go in.

That's not the point.

Missed penalties in the NFL happen frequently and don't always affect the game, too, but when they occur in the waning minutes of a conference championship game, they matter quite a bit.

24 minutes ago, gbogey said:

New method - flag stays in while long lag putts are taken.  Once all players are within 10-15 feet, flag often gets pulled. Gut feeling is that longer lag putts are being taken a little quicker under new rules.

Read the WSJ comments. Players are taking it out, putting it back in, taking it back out, etc.

24 minutes ago, gbogey said:

So overall a very slight improvement in pace of play.  But if it gets to the point where this guy wants in out and next guy doesn't, forget about it. Time to find new playing partners.

Only when the group basically just leaves it in the whole time.

The number of instances where someone was far away and ready to putt while nobody was available to tend the flag were few and far between. That situation is/was rare.

[gbogey]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Read the WSJ comments. Players are taking it out, putting it back in, taking it back out, etc.

Not my experience so far.  That would definitely slow things down and be very frustrating if it did happen.

1 hour ago, gbogey said:

So overall a very slight improvement in pace of play.  But if it gets to the point where this guy wants in out and next guy doesn't, forget about it. Time to find new playing partners.

MY observation so far.  Very slight improvement, let's say 10-15 seconds per hole on average.  Obviously not meaningful.  But as long as the flag either stays in or comes out and stays out, it shouldn't slow things down.  Hoping that the multiple outs and ins doesn't become a norm.

[phillyk]

4 hours ago, iacas said:

Golf’s New Conundrum: Flagstick In or Out?

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A new rule change has left golfers pondering whether leaving the flagstick in the hole might increase their likelihood of sinking putts.

LSW site linked to in this one.

Looks like this requires a subscription to WSJ.  Do you know if the article is listed elsewhere?

[iacas]

6 minutes ago, phillyk said:

Looks like this requires a subscription to WSJ.  Do you know if the article is listed elsewhere?

There are easy ways around that. Google the title.