Can This Be True? Reaching a Par-5 in Two Shots!

[imsys0042]

My max carry is between 250 and 260.   I hit my 4 wood about 220-225 carry.   Depending on conditions and hole layout there are a lot I can reach.   The last eagle I had was from 200 out on a dogleg where you have to be far left to see the green.  4 iron a little short and popped on pin high.   Prior to that was 2 on short chips on the same hole, but that one played a bit shorter.   And by short chips I mean I could have putted it because there was very little rough between where I was and the fringe.

In dryer conditions I probably max out around 520.  But again it all depends on the hole. I probably can’t do 500 with a decent uphill.

[Zippo]

I had an eagle (made the putt) on a par 5 last year. No such luck (yet) this year.

[Darkfrog]

I've converted one eagle putt on a par-5 after reaching in two, and it was 20+ years ago. I can reach the green on most par-5 holes at courses/tees I play in two (sometimes with help from conditions), but it doesn't happen that often because golf is difficult.

I agree that the 10% number seems low, but this is through the lens of a golf junky. In my opinion TST members might be not be fully representative of "golfers". Again opinion, but I tend to think of TST as mostly avid golfers who probably spend more time than a typical golfer working on improving their game, and therefore would be the types of players more likely to reach a par-5 in two, and play better golf in general. So maybe to us, 10% seems low, but might actually be realistic.

This poll made me think of a coffee forum I spend a lot of time on. It is common for members of that forum to have multiple grinders for home use in the range of $1000-5000 each. Often a new member will show up and ask for a grinder recommendation without a budget, and will be given the home coffee enthusiast's "end-game" grinder list costing thousands of dollars, when their budget might have been $150.

[phillyk]

I’ve lost count of eagles. I usually have more than a dozen a year, 90% from being on the green in two. 

[Friz]

So....IF we are to assume that statistic is true, I also have to assume that the term "golfers" refers to "anyone who has ever played at least one hole of golf ever in their life."  Its the only way I can see them finding 90%+ that haven't done this.

For all the courses in the world, there are going to be tons that have a tee option for a sub-400 par 5.  And someone only has to do this once in their entire life to achieve this?  I am forced to believe a reasonable chunk of that 90% are people that only play once a year or less.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Friz

[Shindig]

1 hour ago, Friz said:

For all the courses in the world, there are going to be tons that have a tee option for a sub-400 par 5.  And someone only has to do this once in their entire life to achieve this?  I am forced to believe a reasonable chunk of that 90% are people that only play once a year or less.

Sure, but how many people are playing forward tees?  How often do you see someone playing and think "that person really should move back a set of tees?"

Plus they'd have to actually hit that green in two, making those par-5s (probably four holes on that course) the four longest approach shots they'd face all day.  How many people have even a 25% GIR percentage, even when we include shorter holes? 

And they probably aren't doing what I used to do on the Xbox of moving up to the forwardmost tees so I could get the "eagle every par-5 at this course" achievement. 

[ChetlovesMer]

6 hours ago, Darkfrog said:

I agree that the 10% number seems low, but this is through the lens of a golf junky. In my opinion TST members might be not be fully representative of "golfers". Again opinion, but I tend to think of TST as mostly avid golfers who probably spend more time than a typical golfer working on improving their game, and therefore would be the types of players more likely to reach a par-5 in two, and play better golf in general. So maybe to us, 10% seems low, but might actually be realistic.

I think this is probably the correct answer. 

As I look at our poll numbers right now, The TST members are exactly opposite of this statistic. About 90% of us HAVE reached a par-5 in 2 and about 10% of us haven't ever done it. 

5 hours ago, Friz said:

So....IF we are to assume that statistic is true, I also have to assume that the term "golfers" refers to "anyone who has ever played at least one hole of golf ever in their life."  Its the only way I can see them finding 90%+ that haven't done this.

I think this may also be correct.

Otherwise, I would think the "Blind Squirrel' theory would catch up to all of us. 

4 hours ago, Shindig said:

Sure, but how many people are playing forward tees? 

Probably not as many as should be. 

[NeilV]

Fairways are rock hard at our place at the moment and I have been on par 5s in 2 twice. Both were in the same round a couple of weeks ago. I 3 putted the 523yd 8th and made birdie on the 486 yd 17th. I was through the back with a 5 iron on the 17th last week and still managed to make bogie 🤦‍♂️For full disclosure, 8th was downwind both times.

The other 2 par 5s are too long for me to reach.

13 is a 618 yd dogleg right. Hit a 4 hybrid onto the green from 175 into a fair breeze on 13 last week after hitting my Sunday best drive and a solid 5 iron.  Never in a million years am I getting there in 2. I've never birdied it and don't par it too often. Having just had a play with Google Maps, I'm not even convinced it's possible to get on in 2 even at 350 yd carry pro distances.

18 is 576 yds and I think the closest I've ever been in 2 is 50 yds.

In summary, no eagles, albatrosses (albatrii?), holes in one.

 

 

[billchao]

8 hours ago, Friz said:

So....IF we are to assume that statistic is true, I also have to assume that the term "golfers" refers to "anyone who has ever played at least one hole of golf ever in their life."  Its the only way I can see them finding 90%+ that haven't done this.

That would be a very loose definition of golfer, then. Having played once or twice in your life doesn’t make you a golfer, nor does playing once or twice a year.

[ChetlovesMer]

26 minutes ago, billchao said:

That would be a very loose definition of golfer, then. Having played once or twice in your life doesn’t make you a golfer, nor does playing once or twice a year.

I agree with you that it would be a loose definition of "golfer". But I'm not sure how else the stat could be so low? It doesn't seem like you'd have to be that good, or play that long before eventually you would reach a par-5 in two. 

[klineka]

1 hour ago, NeilV said:

13 is a 618 yd dogleg right. Hit a 4 hybrid onto the green from 175 into a fair breeze on 13 last week after hitting my Sunday best drive and a solid 5 iron. 

Even into the wind, if you're hitting a solid drive, then a 5 iron and still have 175 left you're probably playing tees that are too long for you.

1 hour ago, NeilV said:

Having just had a play with Google Maps, I'm not even convinced it's possible to get on in 2 even at 350 yd carry pro distances.

Very very very few pros carry it 350yds, what possibly made you think that's the case? Regardless though, a 350 total drive would leave a pro with around 268 to the center, maybe 255 to the front depending on how the green is shaped, surely you'd agree that pros can and do reach the green in 2 when left with 250-270 for their 2nd shots, right? Why do you think they wouldn't be able to do it on that hole?

[NeilV]

6 minutes ago, klineka said:

Even into the wind, if you're hitting a solid drive, then a 5 iron and still have 175 left you're probably playing tees that are too long for you.

We have 3 sets of tees in the UK. There's about 5-10 yards between the back (white for competition) and the yellow (for general play). Red (ladies tee) is about 110 yards up. I don't get to choose the tees I play from. The distance I quoted above was for the yellow tees. Typically if I drive well (about 270 this time of year) I'll be able to see the left hand 150 marker past the end of the trees but not the green so am hitting down to the fairway around that mark.

9 minutes ago, klineka said:

Very very very few pros carry it 350yds, what possibly made you think that's the case? Regardless though, a 350 total drive would leave a pro with around 268 to the center, maybe 255 to the front depending on how the green is shaped, surely you'd agree that pros can and do reach the green in 2 when left with 250-270 for their 2nd shots, right? Why do you think they wouldn't be able to do it on that hole?

Fair enough. Let's say 320 as a with a 350 yard drive you will run out of fairway into some fairly thick stuff. Anything under 300 will give a you a blind second shot to the green over more trees. Even with a perfect drive, it's going to leave you about 270 in to the middle of the green, so my apologies, it's not impossible, just very difficult.

OB all the way down the right side of the hole. There is about less than 10 yards of  rough between the edge of the first bunker and OB.

Off topic, sorry OP 😞

Scorecard

[darthweasel]

11 hours ago, Friz said:

So....IF we are to assume that statistic is true, I also have to assume that the term "golfers" refers to "anyone who has ever played at least one hole of golf ever in their life."  Its the only way I can see them finding 90%+ that haven't done this.

For all the courses in the world, there are going to be tons that have a tee option for a sub-400 par 5.  And someone only has to do this once in their entire life to achieve this?  I am forced to believe a reasonable chunk of that 90% are people that only play once a year or less.

King City Golf Course, king City OR has a 352 yard "par 5".  The course overall is really short and while they give themselves credit for being a par 33 course, arguably they should be about a par 31. With that said, the first three years I was trying to improve I played close to a hundred rounds a year there and got matched up with dozens of randoms. With the caveat that a pond bifurcates the hole about 95 yards short of the green, I saw precisely one person reach that green in two in all those rounds...and that was me. To be sure, it is a retirement community with mostly older golfers...but I did get matched up with some young kids swinging out of their shoes trying to drive all the 300 yard greens and what have you. (They usually were outside of 150 after it because they...and I at the time...were %^& golfers...)

but that keys into point two. In the years I have been playing, I have seen hundreds of golfers playing from too far back. "Crushing" their top end 220 yard drives and playing 6400 for...reasons. I suspect if more people played the appropriate tees, more people would hit the occasional green in two. But when you are trying to reach even a shorter...say 450 par 5, if your drive is 200 or 220, you need to hit further with a shorter club than you did with your driver and there are theoretically (and in my experience) a ton of golfers who take the possibility of reaching in two out of the equation before they take their first swing simply by dint of selecting the wrong tee box.

I often am on or around the green in two on holes up to about 520-530 depending on the day...and on the rare occasions circumstances move me back to 6700ish yards I seldom if ever am on or around the green. Just a basic math problem. 

[Friz]

4 hours ago, billchao said:

That would be a very loose definition of golfer, then. Having played once or twice in your life doesn’t make you a golfer, nor does playing once or twice a year.

I would agree with that.  So if we use a more defined definition of "golfer", lets say its as wide open as someone who plays at least twice a year on average.  I'd have a very hard time believing that 90%+ of people who play at least twice a year have NEVER on ANY course hit the green on a par 5 in 2.

2 hours ago, darthweasel said:

King City Golf Course, king City OR has a 352 yard "par 5".  The course overall is really short and while they give themselves credit for being a par 33 course, arguably they should be about a par 31. With that said, the first three years I was trying to improve I played close to a hundred rounds a year there and got matched up with dozens of randoms. With the caveat that a pond bifurcates the hole about 95 yards short of the green, I saw precisely one person reach that green in two in all those rounds...and that was me. To be sure, it is a retirement community with mostly older golfers...but I did get matched up with some young kids swinging out of their shoes trying to drive all the 300 yard greens and what have you. (They usually were outside of 150 after it because they...and I at the time...were %^& golfers...)

This is an interesting case study, but at the same time I'm still hung up on the fact that they only have to do it once in their entire life to check the YES box on this survey.  You may be playing with old guys who can't hit as far now, or young guys who only run into a good shot one out of 10 swings, but they've only had to do this once in their entire life.  If you played with 100 guys in a year there, would you estimate that more than 10 of those guys were capable at some point in their life of achieving this?

[SG11118]

The stat seems a little off.  However, the USGA and R&A say the average male golfer can only hit the ball 216 yards with a driver.  I agree that a golfer who drives the ball 216 is going to have trouble being on in 2 on any hole longer than 415.

MyGolfSpy also has a study where 4% of all golfers hit it 300, 11% 275-299, 16% 250-274, 24% 225-249.  These numbers are really unclear if it is for both male and female golfers.  If we assume it is only male info and that a par 5 is 475-575 yards long, it would make sense that all 4% of the 300+ golfers, and probably 90% of the 275-299 golfers and probably 70% of the 250-274 golfers, and probably 15% of the 225-249 golfers have played enough rounds on enough short enough par 5s to have a made par 5 eagle putt.  This total would be 0.04x1.00 + 0.11x0.90 + 0.16x0.70 + 0.24 x 0.15 = 29%.  I would expect the number to be more in the 25-30% range.

 

Shot Scope Case Study: Distribution of Driver Distance | MyGolfSpy

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Which age group hits the ball farther?

 

[ChetlovesMer]

1 minute ago, SG11118 said:

The stat seems a little off.  However, the USGA and R&A say the average male golfer can only hit the ball 216 yards with a driver.  I agree that a golfer who drives the ball 216 is going to have trouble being on in 2 on any hole longer than 415.

MyGolfSpy also has a study where 4% of all golfers hit it 300, 11% 275-299, 16% 250-274, 24% 225-249.  These numbers are really unclear if it is for both male and female golfers.  If we assume it is only male info and that a par 5 is 475-575 yards long, it would make sense that all 4% of the 300+ golfers, and probably 90% of the 275-299 golfers and probably 70% of the 250-274 golfers, and probably 15% of the 225-249 golfers have played enough rounds on enough short enough par 5s to have a made par 5 eagle putt.  This total would be 0.04x1.00 + 0.11x0.90 + 0.16x0.70 + 0.24 x 0.15 = 29%.  I would expect the number to be more in the 25-30% range.

 

Shot Scope Case Study: Distribution of Driver Distance | MyGolfSpy

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Which age group hits the ball farther?

 

Um, math is hard. I'm going to assume you did the math correct. But the stat doesn't even say that you have to make the eagle putt. But just get the ball on the putting surface in 2 on a par-5. 

Does that change your math? 

[darthweasel]

4 hours ago, Friz said:

This is an interesting case study, but at the same time I'm still hung up on the fact that they only have to do it once in their entire life to check the YES box on this survey.  You may be playing with old guys who can't hit as far now, or young guys who only run into a good shot one out of 10 swings, but they've only had to do this once in their entire life.  If you played with 100 guys in a year there, would you estimate that more than 10 of those guys were capable at some point in their life of achieving this?

excellent question. I would imagine a lot of the kid if they settle down a bit and learn to hit a golf ball might. The old guys...hard to tell what time has done to the body so who knows. A lot of them are that 'take the ball back as high as the knees, call it good and let er rip" that doesn't say much about what their swing used to be. These days I typically get matched up with a more typical cross-section in random rounds and I would say most of the guys, it would take a fluke...bouncing off a sprinkler head to add 60 yards and then a pure second to reach but the problem with all my feedback is this: purely anecdotal and me thinking about it now rather when having been considering this when playing. 

10% seems low but who knows. 

[NM Golf]

In the 41 rounds I have taken stats on this year I have recorded 11 eagles. 10 were hitting a par 5 in two shots and 1 was driving a par 4.

Working at a public golf course, I watch people play golf a lot and I am not at all surprised by that number. I very high percentage of golfer are REALLY bad. In fact I have seen very few people over the years that had the ability to hit a par 5 in two.