Will Jack Nicklaus' Major Record stand the test of time?

[mvmac]

With Tiger turning 40 soon, struggling on the course this season and undergoing a second microdiscectomy surgery on his back in the last 18 months, it looks more and more likely that Tiger isn't getting to 18 or 19 majors anytime soon.

What do you think? Is Jack's record of 18 major championships secure or will it eventually be broken? 

[pganapathy]

Barring Jordan Speith, who won two majors this year, since Tiger nobody has won more than one major a year, showing us how many people have found that four hot days is enough to win you a major.  As the talent pool gets deeper and wider (in the early twentieth century it was mostly American and UK winners and with the arrival of Gary Player, South African.  Today so many nationals compete and can get close.  Don't really think anyone can get to 19 or more majors

[iacas]

12 minutes ago, pganapathy said:

Barring Jordan Speith, who won two majors this year, since Tiger nobody has won more than one major a year, showing us how many people have found that four hot days is enough to win you a major.

Rory McIlroy on line 2…

[mchepp]

Tiger was and still is the best chance IMO. The chance for Tiger is on life support and not breathing without a respirator so it is becoming less and less likely.

 

You never know who could come along in the future...but I would bet against it. 

[saevel25]

I put eventually just because another golfer of that level show up. Golfers today are more advanced for their age in terms of golfing ability then they were years ago.

 

[inthehole]

1 hour ago, mvmac said:

With Tiger turning 40 soon, struggling on the course this season and undergoing a second microdiscectomy surgery on his back in the last 18 months, it looks more and more likely that Tiger isn't getting to 18 or 19 majors anytime soon.

What do you think? Is Jack's record of 18 major championships secure or will it eventually be broken? 

With the depth of the modern field, and fact that equipment has more or less equalized the field ... I'm confident it will never be broken unless there's some kind of super phenom the likes of which the world has never seen that comes along...  

[Club Rat]

Jack played in an era when he was so much better than everyone, similar to the run Tiger had. I voted record to be broken, simply because records are made to be broken. For someone to have a chance, they would most likely be fortunate to play during an era when they dominate like Jack and Tiger. There certainly are players today who will most likely make a run at the record. 

[chspeed]

30 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Golfers today are more advanced for their age in terms of golfing ability then they were years ago.

 

True, but I would argue that they may burn out younger too. Even with great fitness regiments, the human body can only take so many high-speed swings. See Tiger Woods :)

I also think it will never happen because of the increased depth of golf talent. Ironically, Tiger's success has greatly contributed to the increase in popularity and purse size that now draws young talent to the game, making it harder than ever to win a large number of majors. That said, if golf's popularity declines, or doesn't keep up with purses in other sports, there may be a chance in the future.

Edited November 30, 2015 by chspeed

[Gator Hazard]

I say it will never be broken, the interesting (and much debated topic already) question is does Tiger's 14 Major Championships rival Jack's 18?  Or, which was harder to achieve?  Many can argue that the 14 Tiger had came during a much deeper field.  Poker has seen something along these lines, where there was a handful of guys who could and would win the WSOP main event and other coveted big titles.  Sure, they are still winning a lot of tournaments but they are playing in a ton of them and the field has exploded and the talent has caught up.

With a golf field so deep and wide anymore and how young they identify prodigys and get them going I don't know that we will ever see 18 majors broken.  I am not saying it cannot happen but in my humble opinion the odds are very against it.  Tiger has the best odds even in his current condition of winning more majors than Jack.

[GolfLug]

Never is a very long time to say never. If a guy can win two in a year.... and almost two more in the other two...

 

9 minutes ago, chspeed said:

True, but I would argue that they may burn out younger too. Even with great fitness regimens, the human body can only take so many high-speed swings. See Tiger Woods :)

Sorry, but how many is that? Are today's swing any more or less abusive than Jack's or anyone in the past? Heck, I say prolly less effort required with todays equipment.   

[isukgolf]

I think it will at some point ... at some point they may even redefine the number of majors in a year, and/or where they are played.  

[chspeed]

7 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Never is a very long time to say never. If a guy can win two in a year.... and almost two more in the other two...

Almost doesn't count

8 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Sorry, but how many is that? Are today's swing any more or less abusive than Jack's or anyone in the past? Heck, I say prolly less effort required with todays equipment.   

Good point. I was responding to the post that mentioned that kids are better younger than they were in the past. I don't have any statistics to back this up, so I could be completely wrong, but anecdotally it seems like you hear of more young men and women retiring at earlier ages when they start competing professionally in their teens.

[GolfLug]

5 minutes ago, chspeed said:

Almost doesn't count

But it does... If it happens once, it can absolutely happen again, like in the NOW, like it is very relevant since this is so recent.

6 minutes ago, chspeed said:

Good point. I was responding to the post that mentioned that kids are better younger than they were in the past. I don't have any statistics to back this up, so I could be completely wrong, but anecdotally it seems like you hear of more young men and women retiring at earlier ages when they start competing professionally in their teens.

Well, wasn't really looking for any stats.., just being a bit smart-alecky . I am sure many younger players quit back then too. I don't think that has to do just with physical wear and tear. Vast majority won't come close to sniffing a major but then the vast majority is not a good sample for something so superlative... Just need this ONE guy.. Jordan/Rory are good predicators at the moment, but really someone who may not even be born yet.

Now, if the poll was if it will be broken in the next 10 years....

 

[David in FL]

As others have said, "never" is an awfully long time.....

 

[jbishop15]

All records are broken eventually. I don't know how long, but it'll happen eventually. 

Who would've ever thought that anyone would ever break Dan Marino's passing yard record?

[SavvySwede]

My guess is the record will be broken by somebody who has already been born. Sports records have short lifespans in the grand scheme of things.

[gatsby47]

Never is indeed impossible to predict.  Unlikely is far closer to the answer. Not only do they have less motivation but the rewards are so lucrative, that the hunger required to be that competitive that long is not there. But never say never..... EXCEPT  Byron's 11 victories  in a row and 18 in a year.  It is the one unreachable record. 

[Gunther]

All records were NOT made to be broken.  I can think of at least 10 off the top of my head that will never be eclipsed, to include Ripken's consecutive games played, Cobb's career batting average, Woods' consecutive cuts made, Rice's TDs, et. al.  

While players always get bigger, stronger, faster over time, sometimes the way the game is played changes such that certain records cannot be matched.  

Relative to Jack's major record, I believe the level of competition has improved so greatly that no one will ever dominate to the degree Jack did.  Jordan and Rory will probably both get to double digits and they will be sharing the majors they don't get with some heretofore unknown superstars currently in junior high somewhere.  This will be another of those unassailable milestones that our grandkids will marvel at 100 years from now.