$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

[iacas]

I'm blatantly stealing this from elsewhere (with some modifications).

Here's the situation.

Someone offers you the following wager: if you can make a hole in one on a regular par three green the length you hit your full 8-iron (so, say, 135 to 165 yards depending on your own personal abilities). If you succeed, you win $5M. If you fail, you go to jail for 5 years with no chance of early parole.

Some other details:

• You have 30 consecutive days to complete the challenge.
• You get to hit up to 250 balls per day (so, up to 7500 balls).
• There's nothing tricky about the green or hole or anything - it's a regular hole, a regular green with regular size, firmness, stimp, etc.
• The hole location will change daily (and the tees will be adjusted so the yardage stays within five yards of your full 8-iron distance).
• Balls you previously hit magically disappear so you can't bank a ball in or something.
• Nobody else can play the hole - it's magically placed in your back yard or something.

Do you take the bet?

[iacas]

I take the bet.

7500 balls at between 12500:1 and 2500:1 odds? Sure. Plus those odds are for amateur golfers (the 12500:1 end), and I'm better than the average amateur. Plus, those are the odds for a player playing the hole once in the middle of playing other holes and hitting other clubs. The odds go down quite a bit for a player getting to hit 250 shots to the same target.

My strategy would depend on the hole location: if it's in the back, I'm definitely playing a 7-iron or even a 6-iron and rolling the ball back to the hole.

[David in FL]

Nope.

If I remember correctly, the odds of an ace are north of 12,000/1 for the average schmuck...

[iacas]

1 minute ago, David in FL said:

Nope.

If I remember correctly, the odds of an ace are north of 12,000/1 for the average schmuck...

12500, and you're better than an average golfer, AND you're playing the SAME HOLE repeatedly.

[billchao]

I'd take the bet. One of those balls is bound to dumb luck its way in.

[David in FL]

Just now, iacas said:

12500, and you're better than an average golfer, AND you're playing the SAME HOLE repeatedly.

Yeah, I get that.  I’d be tempted, but realistically even if the odds for me were dead even,  the upside isn’t worth the downside.  5 years in prison would have a much larger negative impact on my life, than $5 million would have in improving it.

[boogielicious]

After reading the OP, I’d take the bet. That is a lot of chances. 

[Patch]

Nope, I would pass on that wager.

 I know how many hole in ones I have, vs how many rounds I have played. 

Way too much luck involved to make it a worth while bet. 

5 years in the pen? No way.

Edited February 28, 2019 by Patch

[ncates00]

Definitely no.  I've had one hole in one in my life.  I'd need more goes than 250 per day.  Like @David in FL said, the potential upside just isn't worth the risk.  Plus, there was no mention of weather in the hypo.

[jamo]

I'll take the bet. It would be quite a story to tell in prison. 

[ChetlovesMer]

I'd hypothetically take the bet. But I would like to know which jail. I mean, is it the local pokey? Or am I going to be with hand core prisoners. I'd hate to be regretting my decision while being traded for lucky strikes. 

[nevets88]

21 minutes ago, jamo said:

I'll take the bet. It would be quite a story to tell in prison. 

Better than I ripped the tag off the pillow 😜

[iacas]

21 minutes ago, jamo said:

I'll take the bet. It would be quite a story to tell in prison. 

Q: "Whaddya in for?"

A: "Failing to get a hole in one."

---

I don't understand many of the "no" votes. If you're a reasonably good golfer, the odds are pretty well in your favor.

[chilepepper]

I’ll take that bet. Jail doesn’t seem to instil the same fear it did when I was younger

[Yukari]

Wasn't there someone trying to hit hole-in-one with 10,000 balls and did not make it?

[drmevo]

Hell no. First, I’m not a very good golfer, and second, one injury from so many attempts and you’re done for. 

[badfish]

Sure. As long as it's not federal, pound me in the ass prison 

[iacas]

29 minutes ago, Yukari said:

Wasn't there someone trying to hit hole-in-one with 10,000 balls and did not make it?

I don't think so. The European Tour has done 500 in a day twice, I think.