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The Monty Hall Problem

saevel25

By saevel25,
in Geek Zone

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Note: This thread is 3066 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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3 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you switch doors?

    • Yes
      12
    • No
      6

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saevel25 Incredible Member

saevel25

Quote:
“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

A classic probability question.

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
 fasdfa dfdsaf 

What's in My Bag
Driver; :pxg: 0311 Gen 5,  3-Wood: :titleist: 917h3 ,  Hybrid:  :titleist: 915 2-Hybrid,  Irons: Sub 70 TAIII Fordged
Wedges: :edel: (52, 56, 60),  Putter: :edel:,  Ball: :snell: MTB,  Shoe: :true_linkswear:,  Rangfinder: :leupold:
Bag: :ping:

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David in FL Incredible Member

David in FL

No fair googling the answer.... ......or searching for it on this site either! ;-)

In David's bag....

Driver: Titleist 910 D-3;  9.5* Diamana Kai'li
3-Wood: Titleist 910F;  15* Diamana Kai'li
Hybrids: Titleist 910H 19* and 21* Diamana Kai'li
Irons: Titleist 695cb 5-Pw
Wedges: Scratch 51-11 TNC grind, Vokey SM-5's;  56-14 F grind and 60-11 K grind
Putter: Scotty Cameron Kombi S
Ball: ProV1

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RussUK Great Member

RussUK

I would always stick with my 1st choice. That way if it wrong i can only blame myself. If i changed id have to blame the gameshow host for using his jedi mind tricks on me :cry:

Russ, from "sunny" Yorkshire = :-( 

In the bag: Driver: Ping G5 , Woods:Dunlop NZ9, 4 Hybrid: Tayormade Burner, 4-SW: Hippo Beast Bi-Metal , Wedges: Wilson 1200, Putter: Cleveland Smartsquare Blade, Ball: AD333

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jamo Incredible Member

jamo

Switch doors.

In my bag:

Driver: Titleist TSi3 | 15º 3-Wood: Ping G410 | 17º 2-Hybrid: Ping G410 | 19º 3-Iron: TaylorMade GAPR Lo |4-PW Irons: Nike VR Pro Combo | 54º SW, 60º LW: Titleist Vokey SM8 | Putter: Odyssey Toulon Las Vegas H7

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  • Moderator
boogielicious Incredible Member

boogielicious

  • Moderator

At first glance I thought the thread title was, "The Martin Hall Problem." :-)

Scott

Titleist, Edel, Scotty Cameron Putter, Snell - AimPoint - Evolvr - MirrorVision

My Swing Thread

boogielicious - Adjective describing the perfect surf wave

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rehmwa Super Member

rehmwa

If you like puzzles, it would fun to get this one rolling again.

The great thing about the Monty Hall puzzle is the absolute insistence of those that choose the wrong answer.

http://thesandtrap.com/t/71500/riddle-and-puzzle-thread

Bill - 

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Patch Incredible Member

Patch

Given the opportunity I would switch just because of the higher percentages available to win the car. I voted yes.

In My Bag:
A whole bunch of Tour Edge golf stuff...... :beer:

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Golfingdad Incredible Member

Golfingdad

If you like puzzles, it would fun to get this one rolling again. The great thing about the Monty Hall puzzle is the absolute insistence of those that choose the wrong answer. [URL=http://thesandtrap.com/t/71500/riddle-and-puzzle-thread]http://thesandtrap.com/t/71500/riddle-and-puzzle-thread[/URL]

I was one of these people for the longest time too. Eventually got the right explanation and crow was eaten.

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bjfox10 Established Member

bjfox10

Yes, I would switch. As other have said it would increase your chances of winning.

Brandon Fox

Rochester, NY

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Tee2Trees Well Established Member

Tee2Trees

The trick is in the premise of the question, where the option to "switch" doors is thrown in as a "twist".  An equivalent proposal, worded differently, would be the following:

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host says "Would you prefer to choose both of the other two doors instead of just the one you selected?  Switch and I will give you the car if it is behind either one of the other two."  Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

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acerimusdux Dedicated Member

acerimusdux

The trick is in the premise of the question, where the option to "switch" doors is thrown in as a "twist".  An equivalent proposal, worded differently, would be the following:

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host says "Would you prefer to choose both of the other two doors instead of just the one you selected?  Switch and I will give you the car if it is behind either one of the other two."  Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

Yes, it depends very much on the wording of the question, and what you assume about the rules of the game or the knowledge and motives of the host. Since the host knows what is behind the doors, and may not want to give away the car (which will cost his employers), then it might make sense to stay with your first choice, if you think the host might only make the offer when you have chosen the car.

If however, the rules of the game state that the host MUST make the offer to switch and MUST reveal a goat, then you should switch.

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Abu3baid Great Member

Abu3baid

I said no because the way I see it if the door you picked had a goat in it then the host would have revealed it. Why did he prolong the game by opening the other goat door? It is a failing strategy in my opinion and that to me would be an indicator that the door I picked originally is the one with the car. So I don't care about what he said and I would tell him to open the same door again ;) Can't wait to read the right answer

:adams: / :tmade: / :edel: / :aimpoint: / :ecco: / :bushnell: / :gamegolf: / 

Eyad

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rehmwa Super Member

rehmwa

I said no because the way I see it if the door you picked had a goat in it then the host would have revealed it. Why did he prolong the game by opening the other goat door? It is a failing strategy in my opinion and that to me would be an indicator that the door I picked originally is the one with the car. So I don't care about what he said and I would tell him to open the same door again ;)

Can't wait to read the right answer

you've never watched Let's Make a Deal clearly - game show, extending the game, titilating the audience IS the intent

Let's change the story - Monte has 10 doors (9 have goats, 1 has a car)  You pick a door.   Now, Monte opens up 8 of the remaining 9 doors and reveals goats.  (it doesn't matter which door you picked, there is always 8 other doors he can reveal).  Now he offers you the chance to switch to the last remaining door.

Bill - 

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Abu3baid Great Member

Abu3baid

you've never watched Let's Make a Deal clearly - game show, extending the game, titilating the audience IS the intent he was always going to reveal one of the other two doors - think carefully (if you picked a goat - then he HAD to reveal the 2nd goat.  if you picked the car - then he could reveal either other door.  He knows where the car is, his pick is NOT random.  Your pick was random and you had a 1 in 3 chance of being right.  You still have a 1 in 3 chance of being right even though there is only two doors now.)

You're right I don't remember that game show. If that is the case then my logic is flawed. So, let me try again. So, basically now I have a 50% chance to get the car. The fact that he is making a suggestion could be because he knows that the car is behind that door and he thinks that in thinking he is trying to fool me so I will stick to my original door and get the goat. So, I will call his bluff and pick the other door and take he car home and he will regret telling me the door with the car :)

:adams: / :tmade: / :edel: / :aimpoint: / :ecco: / :bushnell: / :gamegolf: / 

Eyad

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Shindig Incredible Member

Shindig

You're right I don't remember that game show. If that is the case then my logic is flawed. So, let me try again. So, basically now I have a 50% chance to get the car. The fact that he is making a suggestion could be because he knows that the car is behind that door and he thinks that in thinking he is trying to fool me so I will stick to my original door and get the goat. So, I will call his bluff and pick the other door and take he car home and he will regret telling me the door with the car :)

This has to be the quickest I've ever seen someone change his mind on this question. Good choice +Abu3baid.

-- Michael | My swing! 

"You think you're Jim Furyk. That's why your phone is never charged." - message from my mother

Driver:  Titleist 915D2.  4-wood:  Titleist 917F2.  Titleist TS2 19 degree hybrid.  Another hybrid in here too.  Irons 5-U, Ping G400.  Wedges negotiable (currently 54 degree Cleveland, 58 degree Titleist) Edel putter. 

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  • Moderator
boogielicious Incredible Member

boogielicious

  • Moderator

If you like puzzles, it would fun to get this one rolling again.

The great thing about the Monty Hall puzzle is the absolute insistence of those that choose the wrong answer.

http://thesandtrap.com/t/71500/riddle-and-puzzle-thread

But I would rather have the goat.

Scott

Titleist, Edel, Scotty Cameron Putter, Snell - AimPoint - Evolvr - MirrorVision

My Swing Thread

boogielicious - Adjective describing the perfect surf wave

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14ledo81 Super Member

14ledo81

Quote:

Originally Posted by rehmwa

If you like puzzles, it would fun to get this one rolling again.

The great thing about the Monty Hall puzzle is the absolute insistence of those that choose the wrong answer.

http://thesandtrap.com/t/71500/riddle-and-puzzle-thread

But I would rather have the goat.

Exactly.  I already have a car, and I do not have a goat.

-Matt-

"does it still count as a hit fairway if it is the next one over"

DRIVER-Callaway FTiz__3 WOOD-Nike SQ Dymo 15__HYBRIDS-3,4,5 Adams__IRONS-6-PW Adams__WEDGES-50,55,60 Wilson Harmonized__PUTTER-Odyssey Dual Force Rossie II

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Note: This thread is 3066 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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