Jump to content
IGNORED

Strength and Depth of Field in Jack's Day and Tiger's Day


Phil McGleno

Strength and Depth of Field  

90 members have voted

  1. 1. Loosely Related Question (consider the thread topic-please dont just repeat the GOAT thread): Which is the more impressive feat?

    • Winning 20 majors in the 60s-80s.
      12
    • Winning 17 majors in the 90s-10s.
      150


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'm not assuming anything, I just asked a question.
Personally I think golf will be fine - interest might drop for a while, but I expect there to be someone (or a core few) who will become the center of attention. Until they aren't and newer players take the limelight.
I don't think we will ever see an explosion of the game like we did - and it wasn't just Tiger coming onto the scene, the Golf Channel launched before his professional career and it extended the game, sponsorship across all sports have grown

This conversation is getting off topic from the OP, but suffice it to say, I think you’re severely underestimating (if that’s even possible haha) Tiger’s effect on the game. Yes, the golf channel has some to do with growing the game, but their impact pales in comparison to Tiger.

That stated, your assertion that someone will come along is something I’ve already said. See my comment about Cameron Champ, for example.

Lastly, you’re probably right that there won’t be an explosion of golf interest; basketball is getting even larger than ever and golf has high initial entry fees, lack of access, etc. I think we may see a noticeable but not large bump once good launch monitors become more affordable. I own a gc2 and love it. Hard to imagine not having it nowadays. Makes it convenient to keep in touch with my swing year round and can play (admittedly not the same) at home. People are already doing this with online tours with Perfect Golf for example. Kids like that online game stuff haha. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

On 7/12/2019 at 3:10 AM, Wally Fairway said:

I
I don't think we will ever see an explosion of the game like we did - and it wasn't just Tiger coming onto the scene, the Golf Channel launched before his professional career and it extended the game, sponsorship across all sports have grown

Oh really? You think The Golf Channel, catering for old people playing an old person's game made the difference?

55afa3592acae717448b6490-750-404.png

  • Thumbs Up 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


  • 1 year later...
  • Moderator
Jack-Nicklaus-Tiger-Woods.jpg

Who is the greatest player of all time? On the latest episode of Subpar, Brandel Chamblee says the answer is more...

I wanted to dive deeper into this but it’s late, so just going to post this for discussion for now.

Brandel is wrong in his conclusion. Parity means the talent of the competition is closer in level. In the case of golf, a game that has grown over the decades, it means Tiger has played against greater competition than Jack, not the other way around as Brandel says, because Jack played with guys that won more. Those guys won more because the competition wasn’t as good. The elite group of golfers back then was smaller so a handful of people won more often. There are more elite golfers now so it’s harder for a handful of golfers to consistently win.

Bill

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius

My Swing Thread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • Administrator

Brandel has gone so back and forth on this thing himself it's annoying.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • 4 months later...
  • Administrator

I have now had this conversation with another person on another forum.

I've said things like "the math bears this out." I was then criticized for not sharing the "math" and even "making it up" or just yelling "science!" like a COVID denier (or a mask denier, or whatever…).

I haven't quantified the math because I don't know the exact math. We have something like 10x the number of golfers playing golf now than we did in the 1970s.

This same person keeps saying that he thinks that Tiger's competition doesn't stack up to Jack's, and will say things like "there are fewer 1A players today." He'll list Seve, Watson, Floyd, Irwin, Trevino, Palmer, Player, and others as competitors to Jack, and will, if pushed, list only Phil, Ernie, and maybe Vijay as competitors to Tiger. He'll scoff at Michael Campbell beating Tiger in the 2005 U.S. Open at Pinehurst (and, I guess, ignore that Tiger beat Phil, Vijay, and Ernie?). He'll cite that Player (etc.) all have more majors than Ernie, Phil, and Vijay… and Dustin Johnson, and Jordan Spieth, etc.… while ignoring that those players also benefited from weak fields too.

So, in an attempt to put "the math" into a visual form, I came up with this list.

If we assume that all golfers are on a somewhat normal curve (a bell curve), this is the tippy top of the curve. The top whatever %. In Jack's day, it may be the top 0.003%. Today, it may be the top 0.0003%, as we saw about a ten-fold increase in the number of players from 1970 to 2005.

jackvstiger.jpg

At any rate, the top graph has 34 dots, with the red dot being Jack, and the bottom has 100 dots, or about triple the number. This is a cautious approach, as I genuinely think the real number of dots should be more than three-fold.

The "probability of winning" goes from maybe 0.2% (1 in 500 events) on the left to something (non-linearly) higher on the right.

The bottom graph illustrates how much more difficult it is to win in 2005 than in 1970. 3x as many players are squished into far less space. This reduces the chances of one of the top (two, five, ten…) guys winning in two ways:

  • Tripling the number of players, even if the distribution was the same, would reduce everyone's chances by about 1/3.
  • Shifting the players to the right (higher chances of winning, or reducing "1 in 500" to, say, "1 in 200" events) similarly reduces the chances of others winning. For example, if 10 players go from 0.2% to 0.5%, that 3% has to come from somewhere.

This graph illustrates that not only are the top 100 players capable of winning the event that week (the real number is likely 200, and includes people who aren't even in the field, a few good Korn Ferry Tour players, etc.), but that those players at the top.

To check the "math" I talked with Lou Stagner, someone who KNOWS the math.

He and I had this conversation (link to see it full-size is at the bottom, in the postscript):

conversation.jpg

His tweet is this one:

Later in the conversation, Lou said this:

This is an example I always give.

Imagine you invent a game when you are a kid. You and 19 of your friends play every day. 20 players total. You are the best at it of all your friends.

The game catches on. And soon there are 100 players. Are you still the best?

Then there are 200. You still the best?

Then 500.

Then 1000

Then 10,000

Are you still the best? Odds are not in your favor.

I replied:

Right. I've made this point…

Imagine you field a football team of 50 from a town of 5,000. They play a football team from a town of 500,000.

There are "decent" (way below 50%, but not 0%) odds that the starting QB from the town of 5,000 will be better than the QB from the town of 500,000.

But there is basically no chance that the starting QB, RB, two WR, the kicker, a safety, a cornerback, and two linebackers from the town of 5,000 will be better than their counterparts from the town of 500,000. That the best ten (or nine) players from the small town will be better than the best nine/ten from the town of 500,000. It's effectively a 0% chance.

So, the #1 player right now (Dustin Johnson) may not be better than Jack. That's not a guarantee.

But the top 10 players are almost definitely better than the top 10 players of 1970.

Lou, again, in response to that (in addition to liking my last post:

Great example.

I love it. Perfect.

Tiger faces not only DEEPER, but STRONGER at every level. And yeah, Seve won his share of majors, as did Trevino and Watson and Palmer (their careers overlap with Jack's less than many realize) and Player, but they too were taking advantage of the shallow, weak fields.

THIS is what the math shows, and there's almost NO chance that the best ten or even the best five players of 1970 were better than the best five or ten players of 2005, let alone for a period of several years, let alone for a decade, or a career.

P.S. Here's a full-size link to the conversation: https://p197.p4.n0.cdn.getcloudapp.com/items/eDuwk5RY/conversation.jpg?v=091ffa1f177b2801866b7e32f2f14126. I forgot TST would resize the image to fit within a boundary.

  • Like 3
  • Informative 1

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Yep. You see this play out in the olympics as well. Countries with huge populations dominate across the entire competition. While smaller countries need to be hyper focused on a few events. Volume matters. 

If you take out Jack and Tiger, two outliers. Lets focus on just America. There was 205 million people in the USA in 1970. There was 295 million people in 2005. Lets say the probability curve is identical for golf skill level (which disregards things like advancement in sports medicine, training, golf instruction, etc..) In 1970, 0.000000075 of people were in the top 15. If you take that rate and multiply it by 295 million you get 22-23 golfers of of top 15 quality. That is at minimum 47% increase in the number of top 15 quality of players. Its easy to say that this 47% should be much more when considering other variables. 

  • Like 1

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
 fasdfa dfdsaf 

What's in My Bag
Driver; :pxg: 0311 Gen 5,  3-Wood: 
:titleist: 917h3 ,  Hybrid:  :titleist: 915 2-Hybrid,  Irons: Sub 70 TAIII Fordged
Wedges: :edel: (52, 56, 60),  Putter: :edel:,  Ball: :snell: MTB,  Shoe: :true_linkswear:,  Rangfinder: :leupold:
Bag: :ping:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • Administrator
45 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

If you take out Jack and Tiger, two outliers. Lets focus on just America. There was 205 million people in the USA in 1970. There was 295 million people in 2005. Lets say the probability curve is identical for golf skill level (which disregards things like advancement in sports medicine, training, golf instruction, etc..) In 1970, 0.000000075 of people were in the top 15. If you take that rate and multiply it by 295 million you get 22-23 golfers of of top 15 quality. That is at minimum 47% increase in the number of top 15 quality of players. Its easy to say that this 47% should be much more when considering other variables. 

Golf didn't scale with the population. It scaled much, much faster. (And I realize you're talking about just the U.S.) Golf went from about 4 million players in 1970 to about 26 or 27 million in 2005.

And, as you know, this ignores the increase in the international game.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

It was more of a basic exercise to give sort of a baseline of where to start from. 

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
 fasdfa dfdsaf 

What's in My Bag
Driver; :pxg: 0311 Gen 5,  3-Wood: 
:titleist: 917h3 ,  Hybrid:  :titleist: 915 2-Hybrid,  Irons: Sub 70 TAIII Fordged
Wedges: :edel: (52, 56, 60),  Putter: :edel:,  Ball: :snell: MTB,  Shoe: :true_linkswear:,  Rangfinder: :leupold:
Bag: :ping:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • 2 months later...
  • Moderator
2 hours ago, The Flush said:

I posted this in the Jack vs Tiger thread, but it probably belongs here, if it hasn't already been discussed.

 

 

And that was in 1994, pre Tiger.

Scott

Titleist, Edel, Scotty Cameron Putter, Snell - AimPoint - Evolvr - MirrorVision

My Swing Thread

boogielicious - Adjective describing the perfect surf wave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • 7 months later...
  • Administrator

The graphics from that Tweet are:

tiger_jack_field_strength_depth_1.jpgtiger_jack_field_strength_depth_2.jpg

  • Informative 3

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I believe I may have said this before in this thread but when Jack turned 50 he made the comment that the players he would be playing against in the senior tour as "marginal players" back then and now.

Rich C.

Driver Titleist 915 D3  9.5*
3 Wood TM RBZ stage 2 tour  14.5*
2 Hybrid Cobra baffler 17*
4Hybrid Adams 23*
Irons Adams CB2's 5-GW
Wedges 54* and 58* Titleist vokey
Putter Scotty Cameron square back 2014
Ball Srixon Zstar optic yellow
bushnell V2 slope edition

Link to comment
Share on other sites


Beautiful presentation Erik. And I highly appreciate the Gary Larson toon!

:ping: G25 Driver Stiff :ping: G20 3W, 5W :ping: S55 4-W (aerotech steel fiber 110g shafts) :ping: Tour Wedges 50*, 54*, 58* :nike: Method Putter Floating clubs: :edel: 54* trapper wedge

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • Moderator

Mini tour player that I know, he finished 5th. Check out the scores. These are guys that don't have status on Korn Ferry or the PGA Tour (most probably don't on Latin America or MacKenzie).

IMG_0131.jpg

  • Thumbs Up 1

Mike McLoughlin

Check out my friends on Evolvr!
Follow The Sand Trap on Twitter!  and on Facebook
Golf Terminology -  Analyzr  -  My FacebookTwitter and Instagram 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Good point @mvmac. Is that Brian Mogg the guy with YouTube instruction videos?

:ping: G25 Driver Stiff :ping: G20 3W, 5W :ping: S55 4-W (aerotech steel fiber 110g shafts) :ping: Tour Wedges 50*, 54*, 58* :nike: Method Putter Floating clubs: :edel: 54* trapper wedge

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

  • Administrator

Tell that to the guy on Twitter who thinks a single flawed Bleacher Report article that measures a depth of one is at all valid.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Erik,
I give you a lot of credit for being willing to fight the good fight; although it is an odd torch to carry.

I'm also curious if you are out there trying to convert those in the flat earth society?
(I ask because I think they share some weird misguided common bond; that being facts don't persuade or convince them)

  • Like 1

Players play, tough players win!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Welcome to TST! Signing up is free, and you'll see fewer ads and can talk with fellow golf enthusiasts! By using TST, you agree to our Terms of Use, our Privacy Policy, and our Guidelines.

The popup will be closed in 10 seconds...