How Would You Play It? 72nd hole at Bahamas Exuma Classic, 2 Shots off the Lead

[Golfingdad]

This is a slightly different take on the typical "How Would You Play It" thread.  Most of them have been about shot strategy without any extraneous factors coming into play.  This one is all about extraneous factors.  Also, please note that I'm asking you to assume you are a pro golfer, not asking you how you'd play it with your current game. ;)  Here is the scenario:

You are at even par, tied for 2nd place in the Web.com event coming to your last hole.  Here are the standings:

1. Golfer A    -2  F
2. Golfer B     E  F
3. YOU          E  17
4. Golfer D    +3 F

You are the only contender still on the course so you know exactly where you stand.  The last hole is a par 5, 630 yards long and playing downwind.  You hit a very nice drive to the center of the fairway leaving yourself with this:

300 yards to a front pin on a hole that very well guarded on both sides.  You hit your drive about 325, and the announcers think that you can get close to the front edge with a good 3 wood.  If you can make an eagle, you are in a playoff (1st place prize money is $108k).  A birdie gets you solo second and ~$65k, a par and you are T2 and come away with $53k, and a bogey or double bogey puts you at solo 3rd and roughly $40k.

Also worth noting is that you started off the day strong, shooting -3 on the front nine, before sputtering with a double on 10 and a bogey on 12, but then regrouped and are -1 for the last 5 holes. (In your career, you've won once on the web.com tour, also had 3 2nds, 1 3rd, and 17 top tens over 10 years, and you've also had a 2nd, a 3rd, and 13 top tens in your career on the PGA TOUR)

What do you do?  And what is your justification for it?

[SavvySwede]

I don't know how anyone could pick anything other than 3 wood at the green. You need an eagle for a playoff and a chance at the win. There really isn't that much risk since you are 3 shots clear of the 4th man.

[David in FL]

Closer is better, and absolutely more likely to make eagle with a 25ish yard pitch, than from 115.  3-wood as close as I can get it.

I couldn't understand Nick Thompson's choice yesterday.

[Golfingdad]

6 minutes ago, SavvySwede said:

I don't know how anyone could pick anything 3 wood at the green. 

Neither could I.

3 minutes ago, David in FL said:

I couldn't understand Nick Thompson's choice yesterday.

Me either ... and hence, the reason for this thread. :)

The on-course reporter even said that Thompson asked him before he teed off on 18 where he stood, and he told him, so he doesn't even have the excuse of being unaware.

[Patch]

If I am tour pro, I go with my 3W. This especially after a 325 drive. You always play to win. There is only one winner in a pro tour golf match. The rest are all losers with a different sized pay check. 

[Piz]

The answer to the eternal question "Are you an Arnie or a Jack?" is situational.  In this situation; you go for it.  Or, to quote Bill Parcells, "This is why you lift all them weights."

[CarlSpackler]

Go for it baby! It's the only choice. The only way I'm laying up on that hole is if I have a 1 shot  (or more) lead and need to protect par for the win.

[Wanzo]

26 minutes ago, SavvySwede said:

I don't know how anyone could pick anything other than 3 wood at the green. You need an eagle for a playoff and a chance at the win. There really isn't that much risk since you are 3 shots clear of the 4th man.

Yep.  Laying up is giving up on any chance of winning.

[kpaulhus]

Hit the 3 wood. You're essentially risking $25K to win $53K. Thats assuming you hit it either perfect or terrible. These guys dont miss by a mile with a 3 wood and even a birdie gets you another $13K. On the Web.com tour, $13K could be the difference in getting your PGA Tour card or not. 

[14ledo81]

3 wood.

If I was concerned at all, I would cheat the left side so as to take the water out of play.

[Groucho Valentine]

Considering the way you framed this question, the play to the green with a 3wood is the only option. Theres absolutely no reason to lay up considering where the guy behind me is. It costs you nothing unless you hit it OB or something, and even with my current game, to be that wild with a 3wood is from that spot is highly unlikely. 

Edited January 12, 2017 by Groucho Valentine

[Chilli Dipper]

The only reason I wouldn't hit 3-wood is if my tour status depended on finishing in second place, and even then it would be a 50-50 call.

[JxQx]

3 wood all day. The reward definitely seems to out weight the risk in this case, especially at that level.

[GolfLug]

3 wood. The left of green is not that guarded at all IMO.

The only exception would be if there was OB left and I need between $53K and $40K to GET my PGA tour card then I would lay up with a 6i or less to ensure no bogey. Flame on but that would be a once in a lifetime exceptional situation....

[bkuehn1952]

@Chilli Dipper had a good observation.  If this were late in the season and one were jockeying for a finish to get a promotion, then play for the finish that secures the promotion.  This event, however, is at the start of the season so that line of thought is not applicable.

If I knew even on my best strike and down wind that I could not carry the hazard, then I might look to layup.  I am not going to hit it in the water just to satisfy spectators who expect me to try.  On the other hand, if I had made that shot a few times, even if rarely, going for it seems to make sense.

[bubble]

often a good runner up I would play safe PAR lay up maybe a birdie or hole outplay off if prize money 53k is needed to maintain my status and the rest a bonus.

If I'm go for the top already *i could think about it i have 275 biggest mightist max wind behind and great sandy dry shotrt cut FW with a 3 wood dont think 300 is in range anyway it's a bad bargain.

[Golfingdad]

27 minutes ago, bkuehn1952 said:

@Chilli Dipper had a good observation.  If this were late in the season and one were jockeying for a finish to get a promotion, then play for the finish that secures the promotion.  This event, however, is at the start of the season so that line of thought is not applicable.

If I knew even on my best strike and down wind that I could not carry the hazard, then I might look to layup.  I am not going to hit it in the water just to satisfy spectators who expect me to try.  On the other hand, if I had made that shot a few times, even if rarely, going for it seems to make sense.

Right.  This is the first event of the season so I highly doubt the extra 10-15k is a real factor here.  Now if it was tweaked slightly, perhaps I could (almost) see the reasoning.  Say, for example, if he was 2 shots back in solo 2nd and 3rd was only one behind him.  Then he could think that the odds of a double bogey are greater than the odds of an eagle if he goes for it, so then he's talking about a difference of 25-30k and a whole place.  But that's still not enough to me, when the option of winning is still on the table at all.

Now, take the exact same scenario but then slide them down a spot - meaning the guy at -2 wasn't the leader, but rather in 2nd and he was T3.  I suppose then I could see playing for the safe higher position since actually winning was not possible.

But with the factors in play (that we were aware of at least - for all we know the guy owes his loan shark exactly 50k ), I just didn't understand it at all.

[boogielicious]

@Golfingdad mentioned downwind off the tee, but I think it is important to note that the second shot may have had a cross wind element and most likely slightly toward the water. Also, the sand to the left of the green (not the small bunker) is designated waste area.

With those factors, and the FACT Drew  said I was a Pro Golfer , I would go with 3 Wood and err towards the waste area side to protect my shot from the water. If the ball drifts toward the water, then I am in the fairway. Otherwise, I have a waste area shot to try and get up and down for a birdie. These guys were pretty good out of the waste areas from what I saw, so the sand was pretty firm.