How Would You Play It? (Hole #10 at Goose Creek)

[iacas]

1 hour ago, golfintheworld said:

In Palmer's book about strategy, he plays the hole from green to tee. As I look at it that way, there is no advantage to clearing the last bunker for score. For bragging rights (if that's the bet) ok. 

There is an advantage.

[boogielicious]

I have a similar hole @Golfingdad that is a bit of a dog leg left with similar fairway bunker placement. It is 205 to clear the bunker, which is less than yours, but that is driver for me. The issue is the dog leg. You can't really cut the corner because of well places trees on the left. If you miss right of the bunker, you are into trees with no shot at the green.

Before I read LSW, I would try the driver all the time. But my shot zone is wider than the landing area so only 2 in 10 shots would clear the bunker and give me a good second shot. Bad odds. Laying up gives me a 170-190 yard shot to the green, but there are no hazards or bunker protecting the green. Getting a near GIR has pretty good odds

So applying my skills to your hole, and adjusting the yardage a bit, I still would need to layup due to my shot shot with the driver. But it wouldn't be a 5 iron!  Maybe a 3H.

[Hacker James]

When I get to where I can hit decent shots consistently, then I will start to consider strategy. For now, about the only strategy is to not make stupid decisions or attempt a shot that is dubious. Not saying "play it safe always", but just not trying to be a hero. I rarely get into a lot of trouble as I am not long enough to matter in most cases. That being said, probably aim right at the big bunker. If I happen to pull off a longer shot than normal and wind up in the bunker, no worries, I can usually get out a fair distance with a hybrid or mid iron.

[Lihu]

6 hours ago, Hacker James said:

When I get to where I can hit decent shots consistently, then I will start to consider strategy. For now, about the only strategy is to not make stupid decisions or attempt a shot that is dubious. Not saying "play it safe always", but just not trying to be a hero. I rarely get into a lot of trouble as I am not long enough to matter in most cases. That being said, probably aim right at the big bunker. If I happen to pull off a longer shot than normal and wind up in the bunker, no worries, I can usually get out a fair distance with a hybrid or mid iron.

This is what I thought too, but it's better to start to learn the strategy while building a decent swing (not just consistent because a consistent swing can be bad too). You can avoid many awkward rounds where you can strike the ball reasonably okay, but make the stupidest decisions that your partners just can't fathom. The other thing is start learning and retaining your short game skills, because 4 putting more than a couple times is also awkward. . .

[Vinsk]

I chose #2 as to how I'd 'plan' to play it. However....

1. Tee shot right goes dead down the middle into the bunker.

2. Shot from bunker is skulled well over the green.

3. Shank my sand wedge.

4. Chip to 25'

5. 3 putt for a nice triple bogey.

6. Blank stare when playing partner says 'yeah ....it's all about the putting...that's where it'll get ya.'

?

Edited March 16, 2017 by Vinsk

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

This is what I thought too, but it's better to start to learn the strategy while building a decent swing (not just consistent because a consistent swing can be bad too). You can avoid many awkward rounds where you can strike the ball reasonably okay, but make the stupidest decisions that your partners just can't fathom. The other thing is start learning and retaining your short game skills, because 4 putting more than a couple times is also awkward. . .

Completely agree. Nobody is so awful that they can't benefit from playing smart.

[Jack Watson]

When it comes to strategy for me personally I find that often it's surprising how little you need to do in terms of ballstriking to play well.

On the range we all tend to want to max everything out.

we want to see just what our limits are.

learning to score for me is about staying within myself in terms of shot choice.  Plus it just makes a relaxing round.  I've played with a lot of people testing their limits on course and they always seem stressed out when playing.

when I was like that a few years back I used to like to play alone now I wouldn't fathom playing at all without someone to join me

[p1n9183]

My dispersion with my driver it´s arround 80 yards, 250 Carry/270 Total. The fairway at that distance is 80 yards wide with a 20 yards bunker in it. 

Plan A: aim at the center of the 80 yards fairway, from 80 balls hit 60 balls will be ok in the fairway 80 yards from the ping, love that distance, and 20 will be on the bunker 100 yards from the green, not bad distance for a punch shot into the green with a gap wedge.
Plan B: hit 200 yards short of the fairway bunker leaving me 150 yards to the green always from the fairway.

Before making the numbers I´ll choose Plan A.

Now the numbers:

My average score from 80 yards it´s 2,92. Let´s say it´s 3 from 100 yards and 3,3 if it is from the bunker. From 150 yards my average it´s 3,2.

Plan A: ( 60*2,92 + 20*3,3 ) / 80 =  3,015
Plan B: 3,2

After the numbers my scoring average of Plan A it´s lower than the scoring averange for the plan B, so after the numbers I still choose Plan A.

Easy one !    

[DaveP043]

57 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

My dispersion with my driver it´s arround 80 yards, 250 Carry/270 Total. The fairway at that distance is 80 yards wide with a 20 yards bunker in it. 

Plan A: aim at the center of the 80 yards fairway, from 80 balls hit 60 balls will be ok in the fairway 80 yards from the ping, love that distance, and 20 will be on the bunker 100 yards from the green, not bad distance for a punch shot into the green with a gap wedge.

Is your pattern evenly distributed across that zone, or is it more concentrated nearer the center?  If its concentrated nearer the center, you're going to have more balls in that bunker.  That's going to change your calculations significantly.

[Lazarus]

Unless I am missing something, playing from the gold tees I'd probably take a 3 wood and try and land the ball between the two left bunkers. 

if the left rough is bad though I'd hit a 4 iron or hybrid at the right fairway. 

[p1n9183]

10 minutes ago, DaveP043 said:

Is your pattern evenly distributed across that zone, or is it more concentrated nearer the center?  If its concentrated nearer the center, you're going to have more balls in that bunker.  That's going to change your calculations significantly.

No it´s not, it´s more like a normal distribution. Either way Plan A will still have a better scoring average.

In my example 25% of the balls goes to the bunker. With a normal distribution i guess that percentage could rise to 40% maybe. But let´s use 50% as an exageration.

So out of 2 balls 1 will be on the fairway and 1 on the sand. ( 2,92 + 3,3 ) / 2 = 3,11. It is still a better scoring average than the 3,2 strokes from laying up to 150 yards.

[Golfingdad]

Follow-up from today.  I am still not totally sold on the lay-up idea, but I promised myself that I would play it that way today.  It was windy today and this hole was playing straight downwind.  I had 210 to reach the center bunker and 206 to reach the left bunker and I hit 6 iron - which got past the 206 mark, but was perfectly placed in between them.  I had 116 to the pin and hit an easy, flighted sand wedge that hit about 2 feet from the hole and ended up about 12 feet past.  I made the putt for birdie.

So, I've played it both with a driver (that ended up in the bunker) and with an iron in the last week and a half and I've had a 20' and a 12' birdie putt.  Perhaps it's not that hard of a hole no matter what and I'm just overthinking it. 

@GolfSwine (who can get his swing speed way up there into the 120's with his driver) hit the green on the fly and rolled through the back, which is over 320 of carry and about 350 total.

Also, here's a pic I took today from the back of the tee:

[mvmac]

1 hour ago, Golfingdad said:

So, I've played it both with a driver (that ended up in the bunker) and with an iron in the last week and a half and I've had a 20' and a 12' birdie putt.

With the driver, was it a solid hit? Were you aiming at the green?

[Golfingdad]

1 minute ago, mvmac said:

With the driver, was it a solid hit? Were you aiming at the green?

Yes, I hit it solid.  I was aiming to the fairway right of the bunker and drew it more than I wanted to.

[Golfingdad]

So today in our outing, because the hole was playing straight downwind, and because it felt fun, and because I decided I needed more data points ;), I chose to hit driver.  Was aimed out to the right a little and thinking if I hit it solid and straight I might be able to carry the bunker.  Hit it ok but not great (a little toe-hooky) and ended up just in the first cut of rough adjacent to the second left bunker, leaving myself 68 yards to a back pin.  Hit a good hit to about 15' but missed my birdie.

@mvmac, @Shindig, @Lihu, @spider, @chilepepper, @tristanhilton85, @Big C, what strategy did you each choose?  And how did it turn out?

[mvmac]

1 minute ago, Golfingdad said:

 

@mvmac, @Shindig, @Lihu, @spider, @chilepepper, @tristanhilton85, @Big C, what strategy did you each choose?  And how did it turn out?

I hit driver, aimed for the center of the green and pulled it slightly and it just caught the rough, had about 65 yards in. From there hit a 60 degree wedge about 20 feet past and lipped out for birdie.

[tristanhilton85]

I hit driver and put it in the center trap... hit a decent iron from the trap that flew just a bit too long and a couple of horrible pitch shots led to a 6.

[chilepepper]

I should have hit my hybrid and layer up. Iirc I stuck it in the right/ center bunker

Edited May 1, 2017 by chilepepper