Blaming Strategy? Or Execution?

[mchepp]

I played this weekend and did my best to analyze my mistakes as best I could. I paid special attention to each bogey or worse and what happened. My unofficial analyze says that the graph in the OP gives too much credit to 5 handicappers being so close with strategic and execution mistakes. I would say I made maybe one strategic mistake and 6 maybe more execution mistakes. 

[mcanadiens]

I played a course I know extremely well yesterday. It would seem that I made at least 31 execution mistakes. 

[iacas]

On 6/3/2017 at 10:23 AM, phillyk said:

I voted 3-5, because I was thinking mostly about my course and 18caps.  My course is more difficult and there are a lot of tricky holes where just choosing the right play off the tee will save you hazard trouble.  Thinking about the average course, I still see bogey golfers trying to hit the hero shot out of trees that they knew would only work 1 in 10 times, if that.

I don't think they try those shots as often as you think. And even if they're told to pitch out sideways, they often screw that shot up or botch the next one, for example.

Of course, it happens, but what percentage of the rounds is a player doing that, even? One in five where they have a chance to try to play a shot from way in the trees? So even if they save two shots… that's two shots every five rounds.

On 6/3/2017 at 11:22 AM, MacDutch said:

But still difficult to tell in how much a good caddie could help to shave off strokes, it depends. Lets say the caddie knows the course really well and also the 18 cappers game

In the poll above he doesn't know the guy's game really well. His advice is limited to course strategy only… he doesn't have a clue if the guy has wedge yips on shots from 40-70 yards or if he hits his 3-wood fine unless there's even a puddle to the right, when he block-slices the crap out of it. Etc.

On 6/3/2017 at 2:29 PM, Shooting29 said:

To the first bolded sentence: Not being facetious, seriously wondering, when was the last time you played with someone who was in the 12-20 range who hit a solid shot over the green?

It rarely happens, but if you start telling a guy who hits a 7-iron 150 to hit his 5-iron from there, it'll happen much more often.

The point is that most golfers don't come up short because they're just "wrong" about how far they hit they hit the ball when they hit the club with a "B+" swing. They're short because they mis-hit the ball frequently. Give the guy a 5-iron and he's more likely to mis-hit it than his 7-iron, and when he hits it solidly, he's screwed too. Giving blanket advice to hit 1+ or 2+ clubs may actually increase a player's score. They won't be comfortable hitting what feels like a 90% swing, they'll hit it long when they hit it solidly, and they'll still possibly miss left, right, or short when they hit a poor shot.

On 6/3/2017 at 2:29 PM, Shooting29 said:

Playing in a four ball tournament my partner habitually comes up short because he thinks he hits it further than he does.

The hundreds of Shot Zones I've plotted say that he's in a small minority. I mean, people like to think they hit the ball far, but two things seem to be true:

• Their delusions of grandeur (and distance) most often seem to affect how far they think they hit their driver.
• They want to score well, and if they consistently come up short when hitting 7-iron from 165 even when they hit it solidly, they figure out that they don't hit their 7-iron 165. They want to win bets and play well.

[onkey]

I voted 1-2, but I really think it's more of a "might be" 1.  As the OP pointed out, it's all about executing the shots.  Jack's advice may sway me into making a wiser choice, but I still have to execute the shot.  My mental game problems are more about staying focused on the game than making a wise decision (thanks to LSW).

[Binh Nguyen]

I voted 3-5.

In my country, we play almost everytimes with 1 caddy to 1 golfer. And in my experiences, 10 years veteran caddies always help me play better. 

It was the confident in reading lines and sometimes desicison makings that help the most I think.

With good caddies I shoot close to my handi more often than not.

But ironically I had my best score ( 84) was when I played with 3 others people and only 2 caddies. ( The days before I shot 110 so I really dont know).

[uitar9]

Been keeping track the past three rounds. I've seen anywhere from 6 to 11 shots I would call execution errors. Often (I'm a lefty) approach shots, 145-175,  into left side hazards, just short of the green, creating doubles and triples.

So...do I club down and miss left over the hazard...or club up, and probably miss left on the fairway. 

Gonna check that out today. Gonna choose club up, avoid the hazards and see how that effects overall score and number of hazards. Putting and chipping from 50 in is fairly deadly. Starting to think improving GIR won't improve my score, until I get rid of the left side hazards.

7 minutes ago, uitar9 said:

Been keeping track the past three rounds. I've seen anywhere from 6 to 11 shots I would call execution errors. Often (I'm a lefty) approach shots, 145-175,  into left side hazards, just short of the green, creating doubles and triples.

So...do I club down and miss left over the hazard...or club up, and probably miss left on the fairway. 

Gonna check that out today. Gonna choose club up, avoid the hazards and see how that effects overall score and number of hazards. Putting and chipping from 50 in is fairly deadly. Starting to think improving GIR won't improve my score, until I get rid of the left side hazards.

Worse case might be I hit it dead straight, short of the green, middle of the fairway. Could be worse.

[shortstop20]

Maybe I'm just an outlier but I hardly ever golf with people that blame their strategy/mental game, quite the opposite.

On the other hand, I play with plenty of guys who blame their shot execution all day long.

1) They'll try and hit a 30 yard hook around a dogleg on a 350 yard hole where Driver is absolutely NOT needed and they think they should be able to pull off that shot on command.

2) They'll try and hit a 3 wood from the rough when there's a tree starting them right in the face that not even a tour player could hit a 3 wood over.

3) Hitting a 6 iron from knee high fescue when clearly the lie screams "WEDGE!" all day long.

4) Player's stock shot is a pull-fade but like most who hit that shot, has been known to hit straight pulls too. Pin is cut on the left or center of the green. Water hazard or OB is guarding the green tightly on the left. Player aims at left edge of the green to play their fade. Player promptly hits a slight pull which goes into the hazard/OB. Player should have been aiming no further left than the pin given the hole location and their shot tendencies.

These players think they have some sort of deficiency in their shot execution when in fact they're making horrible course management decisions.

Edited July 10, 2017 by shortstop20

[Jerry in DC]

There's an element of chicken/egg here, but what I'm curious about is - how bad does someone's execution (skill) have to be before we start calling it a strategy error?  

For example: if you know that for a 22 HI player that his slices/mishits/whatever will reduce  distance by 20 yards on x% of approach shots, how big does x have to be before you club up by 1 or 2 clubs?  I know you can do the math if you have enough data (which I don't have), but to generalize - could we say that a 22 handicap should go +1 club than his "stock distance"?  This "seems" true to me, but I don't really know.  

Or the general LWS approach of advancing the ball as far as possible (I know it's more complicated) - how bad does expected execution have to be before a short iron lay up from 240 becomes the "right" strategic play?   Maybe the data says that the 18 handicap is almost as likely to hit a terrible shot with a 9i as he is with a 3w and the risk / reward works out.  That doesn't "seem" right to me just from seeing / playing a lot of bad golf, but I could be wrong...

[CarlSpackler]

I voted 1-2, but seriously leaned towards 0. Most people would be on the verge of wetting themselves if they were playing golf in front of Jack and would likely add 4-5 strokes. 

[pganapathy]

I voted 3 to 5 for the simple reason that most 18 handicappers have at least 2 double or triple bogeys.  If good advice can reduce those to a bogey you are on your way to reduced strokes.

But at the end of the day good strategy only works if you listen to it, whether that comes from you, your caddie or your playing partner.  The biggest catch is actually taking good advice and then executing accordingly.

[billchao]

23 hours ago, Jerry in DC said:

There's an element of chicken/egg here, but what I'm curious about is - how bad does someone's execution (skill) have to be before we start calling it a strategy error?  

For example: if you know that for a 22 HI player that his slices/mishits/whatever will reduce  distance by 20 yards on x% of approach shots, how big does x have to be before you club up by 1 or 2 clubs?  I know you can do the math if you have enough data (which I don't have), but to generalize - could we say that a 22 handicap should go +1 club than his "stock distance"?  This "seems" true to me, but I don't really know.

This was addressed in previous posts, but generally speaking, most people have a decent idea of how far they hit their irons. Their shots come up short because they mishit them and having them hit longer clubs will likely increase the chances of mishits as well as still cause them to miss the green when they hit it left/right or long when they pure one.

23 hours ago, Jerry in DC said:

Or the general LWS approach of advancing the ball as far as possible (I know it's more complicated) - how bad does expected execution have to be before a short iron lay up from 240 becomes the "right" strategic play?   Maybe the data says that the 18 handicap is almost as likely to hit a terrible shot with a 9i as he is with a 3w and the risk / reward works out.  That doesn't "seem" right to me just from seeing / playing a lot of bad golf, but I could be wrong...

It's covered in LSW. Have you read it or are you just picking up in the bits and pieces of information we talk about on here? If you haven't read it, you should.

BTW it's unlikely that anyone is equally bad with their 9i as with their 3w. Length and loft make the 9i significantly easier to hit. The ball also turns left/right more from lower lofted clubs and the farther the ball travels, the farther away from center the ball will deviate.

1 hour ago, pganapathy said:

I voted 3 to 5 for the simple reason that most 18 handicappers have at least 2 double or triple bogeys.  If good advice can reduce those to a bogey you are on your way to reduced strokes.

In the context of this thread, how do you propose that the 18 hcp turn those doubles and triples into bogeys?

You can tell a guy that he should avoid this or that hazard, hit his tee shot to the right side of the fairway for the best angle to the green, land on the backside of a hill to get an extra kick in distance, or whatever you want really, but if he can't hit the shot correctly to take advantage of the strategy, the best strategy in the world won't amount to much. 

If you tell a pull-slicer to hit The right side of the fairway to set up a good approach shot and he straight pulls the ball into the woods, it's an error of execution. Even if the hole has no strategy involved, he might still fat, top, thin, push, or pull the ball and it doesn't end up where he intended it to go. Golf for most people is about mistakes made in execution, not strategy.

[Piz]

I voted 6-8 due to having read Tommy Armour's book years ago.  Armour said he could take a handful of shots off an average hacks score simply by discouraging them from attempting so many hero shots.  It's a old book and the average distances listed are pretty comical in relation to todays standards; but the gist was "lets be realistic".  I'm thinking Nicklaus would offer much the same advice...play the shot you've the most confidence in executing successfully.  

[iacas]

31 minutes ago, Piz said:

I voted 6-8 due to having read Tommy Armour's book years ago.  Armour said he could take a handful of shots off an average hacks score simply by discouraging them from attempting so many hero shots.  It's a old book and the average distances listed are pretty comical in relation to todays standards; but the gist was "lets be realistic".  I'm thinking Nicklaus would offer much the same advice...play the shot you've the most confidence in executing successfully.  

Way too high, and Armour was out of touch with the golfer, or is out of touch with today's golfer.

The average bogey golfer simply doesn't try that many hero shots. They lay up more than people think. They play pretty safely.

They just hit a lot of terrible shots.

[JonMA1]

1 hour ago, billchao said:

his was addressed in previous posts, but generally speaking, most people have a decent idea of how far they hit their irons. Their shots come up short because they mishit them and having them hit longer clubs will likely increase the chances of mishits as well as still cause them to miss the green when they hit it left/right or long when they pure one.

Thank you!

I understand that some newer golfers make poor decisions based on ego or simply lack of knowledge, but I've never understood the common belief that hitting a shot slightly short of a green is automatically the wrong decision or worst result. It all depends on where the trouble is.

It would be nice to hit the center of the green every time, but some of us hackers know that ain't gonna happen, so we pull the club and pick a target that will give us the best miss possible. Sometimes I'm delighted to be sightly off the green because that's miss I could live with - if that makes sense.

I take enough club to get past trouble in front, or a short enough club that will minimize the chance of reaching trouble behind. All things being equal, you take the club and make the swing that will increase your chance of hitting between the dark greys and on the green.

I'll get some disagreement on this, but IMO, the center of the green is not always the best target.

I am possibly the worst player on this site, but it has almost nothing to do with poor decision-making. Well, other than the decision to go play in the first place:) 

It's almost 100% execution. 

I believe that no one else in the world - not Jack, not Butch, not Erik (only because I've already read his book) - could offer me significantly better advice on strategy because they'd have no where near the knowledge I have of my weaknesses, strengths, tendencies or how I feel on a given day.

(Feel free to call BS on any this )

[Ty_Webb]

I said 3-5 and I said that because when I was an 18 handicap and when I've played with people around an 18 handicap, they make a few pars, the very occasional birdie, quite a lot of bogeys and a fair few doubles and triples. Most of the time, if you're not playing a course with OB or water right alongside the playing corridors, the doubles and triples are made by compounding errors. I have played with (and been) 18 handicappers who think they can hit a 3 wood cut around some trees from the rough, but they can't. I have not played with many 18 handicappers who can't hit a pitch out into play. And they get themselves into those spots frequently. 

Granted they *can* still mess up the safe play, but they are far less likely to and they are far less likely to make doubles and triples. I think that has to be worth 3 shots a round. I agree that telling them to play safely out to corners or to play to the right half of a fairway because that gives a better angle to the green is not going to help them in the least. I think it's the play once things have already gone wrong that will make the difference and that happens quite a lot for an 18 handicapper.

[amished]

On 8/17/2017 at 5:08 PM, JonMA1 said:

Thank you!

I understand that some newer golfers make poor decisions based on ego or simply lack of knowledge, but I've never understood the common belief that hitting a shot slightly short of a green is automatically the wrong decision or worst result. It all depends on where the trouble is.

It would be nice to hit the center of the green every time, but some of us hackers know that ain't gonna happen, so we pull the club and pick a target that will give us the best miss possible. Sometimes I'm delighted to be sightly off the green because that's miss I could live with - if that makes sense.

I take enough club to get past trouble in front, or a short enough club that will minimize the chance of reaching trouble behind. All things being equal, you take the club and make the swing that will increase your chance of hitting between the dark greys and on the green.

I'll get some disagreement on this, but IMO, the center of the green is not always the best target.

I am possibly the worst player on this site, but it has almost nothing to do with poor decision-making. Well, other than the decision to go play in the first place:) 

It's almost 100% execution. 

I believe that no one else in the world - not Jack, not Butch, not Erik (only because I've already read his book) - could offer me significantly better advice on strategy because they'd have no where near the knowledge I have of my weaknesses, strengths, tendencies or how I feel on a given day.

(Feel free to call BS on any this )

I was trying to apply your thought of "on the green isn't always the best spot" to one of the more devilish holes that's on my local muni.  It's a shorter par three (155 from the tips, 135-140 from normal mens tees) that plays uphill to a narrow but longer, extremely sloped green.  I'm not sure if there is an actual legal place to put the hole on that green anymore due to some of the slope in a lot of the places but I don't know enough about that to be confident.

On this hole, for basically everyone that regularly plays on this hole the "common knowledge" is that if you're above the hole in any way, shape, or form then you're going to have a bad time so there are a lot of people that play to be on the front edge of the green/off the green short if the pin location is in the front because of the likelyhood of three-putting if you misread the green/mishit the putt.  My last three rounds there I've been on the green in regulation, one time I 4 putt, the other two times I somehow 2 putt.  What's interesting to me is the more I think about it, even if it's a basic chip I think that a putt is easier.  Therefore, overall, especially as a high handicapper I would want to be putting more than anything else.  I might average 2.5 putts on that green if I hit it in regulation, but unless I average 1.5 putts if I miss the green I'm losing shots on average.  I know I don't chip and one putt on this hole an exceedingly high amount of time but I would be willing to bet if you track you will see a lower correlated score if you're on the green.

[JonMA1]

5 hours ago, amished said:

I was trying to apply your thought of "on the green isn't always the best spot" to one of the more devilish holes that's on my local muni.

My apologies if I didn't communicate my thoughts a little better. The green is almost always the best spot to be on. My intended point was more that the center of the green may not always be the best target.

While I agree with you that a putt from a similar distance is always preferable over a chip, a short chip trumps a long putt in some cases, and there's often the opportunity to putt from off the green.

My game and that of a single digit player or even a low teen player is different in that I have some weaknesses that those of you likely don't.

For example, my bunker play is worse than even most high cappers and my left to right dispersion is probably what you'd expect from someone who shoots in the high 90's - not exactly pin-point accurate on most days. 

On the other hand, I suspect my distance control may be a relative strength (I don't know if this is true). A shot hit well or even slightly off-center of the face will usually result in the distance I want.

So with that being my perceived reality, I don't worry as much about a bunker in front or trouble behind a green. But put a bunker on the front left side of a green, and my target shifts to the right and or back of the green. What I meant with my previous post is that while I'd prefer to be on the green in this scenario, a miss slightly right of or behind the green is a miss I can live with.

[Ernest Jones]

I long for the day when can legitimately blame strategy.  Until then, it's all about my poor swing.