Can an LPGA player win on PGA tour?

[BamaWade]

6 minutes ago, chspeed said:

Meanwhile, the male examples that drive it about the same as the longest women.

Brandt Snedeker: 63.6% (65th)

Dang, I don't watch enough of the tour to have a good grasp at who is best at what, but that Snedeker stat (65th) surprises me.  65th isn't terrible by any means (without looking, guessing that equates to ~70th percentile), but I'd have guessed high...at least top 25.  I guess he makes it up a little on the greens (30ish in SG-putting).

[chspeed]

1 minute ago, BamaWade said:

Dang, I don't watch enough of the tour to have a good grasp at who is best at what, but that Snedeker stat (65th) surprises me.  65th isn't terrible by any means (without looking, guessing that equates to ~70th percentile), but I'd have guessed high...at least top 25.  I guess he makes it up a little on the greens (30ish in SG-putting).

Surprised me too. He's got 4 top tens, so having a decent year money-list wise!

Edited June 28, 2017 by chspeed

[billchao]

2 hours ago, BamaWade said:

Lexi: 106mph
Brandt: 112mph
Steve: 110mph

Sounds like Snedeker and Stricker aren't hitting driver with optimal launch and they're leaving some yardage on the table if they have similar carry numbers to Lexi. My take on this is it probably makes them relatively shorter in driver distance but they're probably still getting the most out of their swing speed on irons and stuff, which Lexi can't match.

106mph average clubhead speed would put her..... 201st on the PGA Tour this year.

http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02401.html

Brian Stuard did win an event last year FWIW. It was rain-shortened and he went bogey-free for the tournament, so it pretty much a career week.

[zipazoid]

2 hours ago, BamaWade said:

This is a good example for your point, IMO, but the problem is that Lexi isn't really 280 and down the middle.  She's #117 on the LPGA tour in driving accuracy.

However, to your point--at Harbour Town, I think she'd at least climb up from the bottom of the leader board.  I'd probably watch with some interest.  Even so, I'd think making the cut would require a phenomenal week.  Lots of places at Harbour Town where she'd still be hitting driver to hit her landing spot, while the PGA guys would be hitting hybrids/irons, pitting her inaccurate club against their more accurate ones.  And though I haven't played HT, I've walked all 18 after-play (as recently as last week) and believe me it requires some major accuracy.

I've played Harbour Town, and it's basically hallway golf. Every hole is lined with trees except 17 & 18. Have to hit it very straight or you're in the trees.

Which is my point. If it came down to can a woman win or can't she on the PGA Tour, I can't justify can't win. It's possible. It's not impossible. Highly unlikely? Sure. But on the right course, catching a hot week on the greens (which is basically whoever wins a PGA Tour event anyway) & hitting fairways/greens, why not? Women can do that. Men have a distance advantage. But the longest driver for the week doesn't always win. 

These guys are good. But so are the ladies.

Edited June 28, 2017 by zipazoid

[freshmanUTA]

7 hours ago, klineka said:

I dont understand this argument. The post is about would a female be able to win on the PGA tour, not about making the playing field fair and having males play from shorter tees? This would be women playing from the same back tees as men. 

While you are correct that some of the men would be able to hit 3 wood wedge on a par 4 when the female hits driver mid iron, that doesnt mean the female wouldnt still be able to get a birdie, and it doesnt guarantee the male would get a birdie.

Some people have also been pointing out how women average more putts per round than males do, that is just the average, and I believe a top LPGA golfer is capable of getting red hot with the putter and only putting 24 times in a round, well below the average, and is also capable of putting together 4 rounds of putting below her average putts per round as well. 

I think it is unlikely and would take nearly perfect play from a female and less than average play from the male field, but I do think it is possible.

Well then in that case, then definitely not. The longer the iron you hit into the green the less likely your chance of birdie. That's a simple thing that everyone can agree on. Sure a woman could get red hot, but so could every one of the men she's competing against, and statistics say that the males "on fire" is better than the womans "on fire" thats all it comes down to. Men are better statistically in every facet of the game, so the argument of "if a woman is on fire and a man isn't she could win" doesn't make sense because, if a woman could be "on fire" the male will statistically be better when he's "on fire". I voted no, but they could come close. It's just not possible. There's too much of an advantage the men have of hitting Driver-wedge on most par's when women will be hitting Driver-8iron. Statistically, women stand no chance. Realistically we know that people miss greens and they'd have to rely on a male having a piss poor performance compared to what they usually shoot. Not to mention, there are no LPGA stats on PGA tournament condition courses.

[iacas]

22 hours ago, chspeed said:

Yeah, I don't think they could win a US Open or anything too long, but maybe on the shorter courses with less penal rough, I don't see why a woman couldn't compete on a 7000+ yds. course when men that sometimes win on those courses don't drive it much longer than top LPGA players.

They don't do anything as well as the men.

You can find one-off examples. Boo Weekley is a terrible putter, but his ballstriking is pretty great. An LPGA Tour player couldn't hang with Boo… unless he was thinking about fishing that day.

22 hours ago, chspeed said:

1. The article is 7 years old, I wonder if some of the factors they cite (practice, instruction, motivation) have changed.

They haven't.

22 hours ago, chspeed said:

1. The question is could an LPGA player win. While the average PGA tour putter is much better in the provided stats, the top LPGA putter is better than the average PGA player. So while an average LPGA player obviously couldn't compete, I still don't see why a top one couldn't compete or win.

Well, the thing is… they're not playing against a full field of the poor PGA Tour players only.

20 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

Yes.

No.

20 hours ago, RandallT said:

Just for grins, I'll throw this out: In 2014, the US Opens for men and women were held at Pinehurst.

For the first round, men played a 7370yd course and averaged 73.23.  Women played a 6296yd course and averaged 75.83.

For the entire tourney, Kaymer won with -9 and Wie with -2. This is perhaps more relevant than the averages above, since the question is about winning.

So the outlier performances: the women shot 7 strokes worse than men- on a course that was in the neighborhood of 1000yd shorter. For a woman to win in the men's tourney, she'd have to shoot 2 strokes better per round, while playing a significantly longer course.

Yup.

20 hours ago, RandallT said:

Not exactly apples to apples. I don't remember and I did no research on whether the USGA changed the course drastically between tournaments, nor do I remember if weather was vastly different.

They softened and slightly slowed the greens. That was about it. Women can't stop the ball on firmer greens like the guys can. Their landing angles and spin rates are lower.

20 hours ago, RandallT said:

But with that said, I think you can get a big picture feel of the magnitudes involved though. It's huge stretch to take the top player in the women's tournament and expect them to even compete with the top players in the men's tournament. Statistically, that one woman would have to have an absolutely miraculous outlier of a tournament to even be anywhere in the hunt. 

I went with "never happen."

That was my choice as well.

19 hours ago, zipazoid said:

Sure. They're talented professionals. Hit greens, make putts.

What about the length disparity? Two words: Corey Pavin.

Corey Pavin wouldn't keep his PGA Tour card today if you gave him a freebie for a year. He simply wouldn't. Corey should be glad he played when he did… or sad that he didn't play even earlier.

16 hours ago, zipazoid said:

The question wasn't can an LPGA player win on a consistent basis on the PGA Tour, it was can she win on the PGA Tour.

And the answer to that is no.

16 hours ago, zipazoid said:

So while I don't disagree that Pavin would have a much different career if he started out now, that's not really the point.

Yeah it is… and you're the one who brought up Corey Pavin.

He wouldn't win now.

Let's say he's got a one-in-10,000 chance of winning. If you're talking about Corey Pavin, maybe those are accurate, but I suspect those are good odds for a gal to win. But anyway… 1 in 10,000 means a 99.99% chance he'll lose.

For that to work out, we have to figure out when .49999 >= .9999^x. x is gonna be around 6940 events played before it's even likely that he wins. 45 events a year, and you're looking at about… 150+ years before it's even likely that this person wins.

Could they win the first event they play? Sure. But that is almost as likely as them going the full 222.2222 years (10,000 events) without winning.

16 hours ago, zipazoid said:

If an LPGA pro can hit 70% of the greens & is making putts, she can win.

She's not gonna do that for four rounds.

16 hours ago, zipazoid said:

But there are shorter tracks out there (Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands) where it's conceivable, in my opinion.

The shorter tracks give the guys an advantage, too.

PGA Tour players are about 6 shots better than women players.

In a field with one woman (or even a few) and 144+ male PGA Tour players, it's basically never gonna happen.

Edited June 29, 2017 by iacas
Thanks, John

[chspeed]

38 minutes ago, iacas said:

In a field with one woman (or even a few) and 144+ male PGA Tour players, it's basically never gonna happen.

Statistically, I've come to the same conclusion. Many people have made good points here showing the fallacy of comparing just driving distance. Sure it's possible - maybe in the future some freakishly strong and ultra-talented woman ends up playing on the PGA tour regularly. But even then, winning is so hard for men on the PGA tour, that the odds are slim to none.

[Vinsk]

12 hours ago, rehmwa said:

This

 

(tennis is a completely different thing - but still would be fun to see Serena play the 100th or 200th ranked man.  It would be a good charity event)

She did. So did Venus. They played a guy ranked over 200. They guy drank some beers, had a smoke, and beat Serena 6-1, and Venus 6-2. The sisters even stated, "we had no idea it would be this difficult."

http://www.topendsports.com/sport/tennis/men-v-women.htm

Edited June 29, 2017 by Vinsk

[Vinsk]

8 hours ago, zipazoid said:

The question wasn't can an LPGA player win on a consistent basis on the PGA Tour, it was can she win on the PGA Tour. So while I don't disagree that Pavin would have a much different career if he started out now, that's not really the point. 

If an LPGA pro can hit 70% of the greens & is making putts, she can win. Now, obviously, not on any PGA Tour course. For ex, I would have a hard time seeing an LPGA pro winning at this year's US Open site that featured 525-yard par 4s. But there are shorter tracks out there (Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands) where it's conceivable, in my opinion.

Well, the best female player of all time cherry picked a short course. She missed the cut.

1 hour ago, chspeed said:

Statistically, I've come to the same conclusion. Many people have made good points here showing the fallacy of comparing just driving distance. Sure it's possible - maybe in the future some freakishly strong and ultra-talented woman ends up playing on the PGA tour regularly. But even then, winning is so hard for men on the PGA tour, that the odds are slim to none.

None to None.

[mvmac]

9 hours ago, zipazoid said:

If an LPGA pro can hit 70% of the greens & is making putts, she can win.

That's a big if. Even Lexi, who hits it a good distance, couldn't do something like that at Colonial or Harbour Town because women can't stop the ball on firmer greens like the men can due to not being able to create as much spin and launching the ball lower. Even though Lexi may hit it 280 (like some men) she's also only swinging 106mph. She maxes out her distance by swinging well up on it with her driver.

[zipazoid]

6 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well, the best female player of all time cherry picked a short course. She missed the cut.

 

So a sample size of one makes up your mind?

[jsgolfer]

59 minutes ago, zipazoid said:

So a sample size of one makes up your mind?

Yes, there's a reason that very few women have tried it.  If a women thought she could compete on the men's tour, they would do it in a minute.  There is way more money to be made on the PGA tour than the LPGA tour.  

Last PGA tour winner made 1.2 million and the ladies winner won $300,000.  Players who tied for 5th won $248K on the PGA.  

There have only been 4 women who have even been in an event, Michelle Wie, Suzy Whaley, Annika and Babe Zaharias.  None of them made a cut in a PGA tour event.  

So no they will never be able to win at a PGA tour event. Could they make a cut, I guess if they got hot for a couple of days and the rough was light and pins not tucked but unlikely.

 

  

[woodzie264]

Can I just say that I REALLY appreciate all of the homework you guys do when prepping your responses....in a world where many have opinions based on emotions or what is considered PC for the moment, this forum is a breath of fresh air...nothing compares to reasoning/rationalization based on facts

[iacas]

8 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well, the best female player of all time cherry picked a short course. She missed the cut.

She not only missed the cut… it's that she beat only ONE player. ONE.

1 hour ago, zipazoid said:

So a sample size of one makes up your mind?

More than just Annika have played against PGA Tour players, but:

• she was clearly a much better player than any other LPGA Tour players at the time.
• she hand-picked the shortest course with the easiest rough.
• she had a ton of support that week.
• she finished almost DFL.

[GolfLug]

I don't get it. There are folks who think there is a chance a LPGA pro can beat every single PGA pro (about a 100 or so in a tourney) cumulatively over 4 rounds??

No amount of statistics would be relevant here. 

[mcanadiens]

3 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

over 4 rounds??

I was thinking about the full field in my original response, but you definitely have that as well.

Weird stuff can happen in 18 holes.  72 holes has a way of sorting a bunch out.

[woodzie264]

40 minutes ago, woodzie264 said:

Can I just say that I REALLY appreciate all of the homework you guys do when prepping your responses....in a world where many have opinions based on emotions or what is considered PC for the moment, this forum is a breath of fresh air...nothing compares to reasoning/rationalization based on facts

my last post^^^^^^^

4 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

I don't get it. There are folks who think there is a chance a LPGA pro can beat every single PGA pro (about a 100 or so in a tourney) cumulatively over 4 rounds??

No amount of statistics would be relevant here. 

good point

[David in FL]

2 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

I don't get it. There are folks who think there is a chance a LPGA pro can beat every single PGA pro (about a 100 or so in a tourney) cumulatively over 4 rounds??

No amount of statistics would be relevant here. 

People grab on to that word "chance", and just can't let go.

That's why the Powerball does so well too.  News flash.  Neither is ever gonna happen...

...now I gotta remember to get my ticket.