Hurricane IRMA

[saevel25]

A lot of computer models are projecting Hurricane IRMA to hit Florida. Though there is still a chance for IRMA to turn north before Florida.  Right now it looks like it will hit at the Keys or south just of Miami. Most have the hurricane at a category 4.

For those in Florida, stay safe!

 

 

[David in FL]

Too early to tell, or even get terribly spun up over.  We should have a better feel by Thursday.

My biggest worry is that our club championship is this coming weekend....  

[Jeremie Boop]

I've been keeping an eye on this as well, since I'm supposed to be in Puerto Rico starting the 13th. As of right now it's supposed to miss PR by 50 miles. I really hope it takes a hard turn North and East away from everything and back out into the open ocean. The last thing we need is another heavy hit on the US by this storm. Also, report I just read has it at Cat 5.

[kpaulhus]

It is a Cat 5 now, which is really bad. It's been a long time since Florida was hit by a Cat 5 storm. Usually, Cat 1-2 is just a few days off work and a lot of rain and wind, but nothing too bad. A Cat 5 can level entire cities. As @David in FL states, these things can turn crazy in a matter of hours, so by Thursday, there will be a better idea as to where it's going to hit. Best case scenario for Florida it spins off into the Atlantic or heads south to Mexico (still not great for Mexicans). Ive already seen a lot of friends posting pictures of grocery stores being wiped out of water and other supplies. 

[saevel25]

As of 11:00 AM today,

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml

Quote

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today
and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow.
Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of
tropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and
tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos,
and Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to
those areas on Thursday and Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this
weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the
Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing
and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to
determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental
United States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 16.8N  58.4W  155 KT 180 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W  155 KT 180 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W  150 KT 175 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W  125 KT 145 MPH

 

19 minutes ago, kpaulhus said:

It is a Cat 5 now, which is really bad. It's been a long time since Florida was hit by a Cat 5 storm. Usually, Cat 1-2 is just a few days off work and a lot of rain and wind, but nothing too bad. A Cat 5 can level entire cities. As @David in FL states, these things can turn crazy in a matter of hours, so by Thursday, there will be a better idea as to where it's going to hit. Best case scenario for Florida it spins off into the Atlantic or heads south to Mexico (still not great for Mexicans). Ive already seen a lot of friends posting pictures of grocery stores being wiped out of water and other supplies. 

There are a few factors that influence this, but most hurricanes will be drawn up northward.

To hit Mexico they have to be in the perfect position to do so. Like that potential tropical depression currently near the Yucatan peninsula. That one will be dragged towards Mexico.

Right now, the major influencing factors to Irma's path is keeping the hurricane from turning north. It want's to turn north. If it reaches the Gulf, it will probably make a line towards the Florida Panhandle, New Orleans, and hopefully not Texas. There is no indication that this storm will divert southward to Mexico. Really the only hope for Florida is if the hurricane turns north soon. If not, some part of Florida will be hit.

 

[djfajt71]

As of right now, it is set to crawl up the spine of Florida.  My county, Pinellas, has issued evacuation orders for anyone in Evacuation Zone A.  I am in a non-evacuation zone.  However, I am evacuating to Vegas for my honeymoon Saturday morning.  I am getting out before Southwest cancels their flights, starting Saturday afternoon/evening.

[Jeremie Boop]

2 minutes ago, djfajt71 said:

As of right now, it is set to crawl up the spine of Florida.  My county, Pinellas, has issued evacuation orders for anyone in Evacuation Zone A.  I am in a non-evacuation zone.  However, I am evacuating to Vegas for my honeymoon Saturday morning.  I am getting out before Southwest cancels their flights, starting Saturday afternoon/evening.

I'm confused about their projected path, they keep showing it moving more west than north but it seems like it's actually moving north more than they are thinking it will. I'm hoping it peels off north even more.

[Vinsk]

So far it's ok here (Celebration, FL) about 10 minutes from Disney World. We're being told Saturday evening/Early Sunday expect high winds...yada yada....

[djfajt71]

8 minutes ago, Jeremie Boop said:

I'm confused about their projected path, they keep showing it moving more west than north but it seems like it's actually moving north more than they are thinking it will. I'm hoping it peels off north even more.

The latest projected path, at least the one the local paper is showing, shows the center of the storm moving NNW, between Tampa and Orlando, almost equidistant from both cities.

[Jeremie Boop]

5 minutes ago, djfajt71 said:

The latest projected path, at least the one the local paper is showing, shows the center of the storm moving NNW, between Tampa and Orlando, almost equidistant from both cities.

Right, but the storm has steadily moved north more than the projected path has shown, but they have moved the path from being off the east side of Florida to straight down the middle of florida. Not being a meteorologist I obviously don't know how the modeling works, but every time I checked the actual path compared to the projected path, they've had it more south and west of where it actually ends up being.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Jeremie Boop

[saevel25]

7 minutes ago, Jeremie Boop said:

I'm confused about their projected path, they keep showing it moving more west than north but it seems like it's actually moving north more than they are thinking it will. I'm hoping it peels off north even more.

The hurricane path is influenced by a lot of factors. Primarily it has to do with what fronts are going through the area at the time. That is why Harvey stalled. It ran into a front that blocked it from moving north much sooner than it normally would have. The front actually pushed it back out into the gulf.

Here is on model, gfs, that is used more as long range prediction tool. Click on the "stop" button, then use the arrow keys to shift through the images. The big high pressure over the north Atlantic is blocking Irma from moving north. When it finally reaches the back side of the high it will turn north fast.

Lots of technical lingo here, but it gives you an idea as to how the NWS is looking at this hurricane. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/081451.shtml

Quote

Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours.  After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.

The NWS ability to predict exactly where the hurricane will hit is moderate. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1989-present_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors.pdf

You can see that 36 hours out they have an error or 72 miles.

[DeadMan]

I hope everybody in the path of this storm stays safe. It does not look pretty. Even though the storm might not be as powerful as it has been, the sheer size of it is ridiculous and is probably more destructive because of that.

[David in FL]

This damn storm is starting to piss me off!

The key for everyone to watch is somewhat subtle, but enormously important.  As it approaches South Fl, does it begin to turn north just before the southern end of the mainland, or just after.  Just after is vastly worse.  That brings the strongest winds and subsequent storm surge into play for Miami, West a Palm Beach, and the rest of southeast Fl.  

It also means that the storm is likely to turn back across, somewhere around Ft Myers or Port Charlotte, and swing back and up through the entire state.  That's exactly what happened during Hurricane Charley in 2004.  This is very reminiscent of that, and that would be a bad thing.  Since the entire state is dramatically affected, it leaves very few viable options to move to somewhere less impacted.  There's really no place safe.

Pray that it turns a little earlier.  Even a little more direct hit on southeast Fl from the western part of the storm will do less damage and be less dangerous overall than that later turn north.

For those that haven't experienced a hurricane, let alone a major one, category 3 or higher, my recommendation is that you try to keep it that way.  They suuuuuck!

 

 

[boogielicious]

1 minute ago, David in FL said:

This damn storm is starting to piss me off!

The key for everyone to watch is somewhat subtle, but enormously important.  As it approaches South Fl, does it begin to turn north just before the southern end of the mainland, or just after.  Just after is vastly worse.  That brings the strongest winds and subsequent storm surge into play for Miami, West a Palm Beach, and the rest of southeast Fl.  

It also means that the storm is likely to turn back across, somewhere around Ft Myers or Port Charlotte, and swing back and up through the entire state.  That's exactly what happened during Hurricane Charley in 2004.  This is very reminiscent of that, and that would be a bad thing.  Since the entire state is dramatically affected, it leaves very few viable options to move to somewhere less impacted.  There's really no place safe.

Pray that it turns a little earlier.  Even a little more direct hit on southeast Fl from the western part of the storm will do less damage and be less dangerous overall than that later turn north.

For those that haven't experienced a hurricane, let alone a major one, category 3 or higher, my recommendation is that you try to keep it that way.  They suuuuuck!

 

 

Stay safe! Been through a winter version of this which destroyed my neighborhood. I hope for the best for all of you.

[JonMA1]

I spent my first 35 years in the Tampa Bay area and have tracked storms since I was a kid. This one scares me. I'm glad it's being taken seriously by officials and by the residents. My family is still in Pinellas County and they are staying put - can't say that I blame them. My brother is a retired first responder and his house is on relatively high ground. Still, you never know what this storm will bring. It just seems like traveling this late in the game isn't safe either.

For everyone in the south, I just hope the damage and heartache is minimal.

[billchao]

This is a scary storm. I was in FL during Matthew, which was not only weaker but also traveled north off the coast, and I remember the damage caused by that. Lots of down trees, power outages, road blockages, flooding, etc.

Irma is both stronger and projected to make a direct hit. Stay safe, everyone.

[Blackjack Don]

1 hour ago, David in FL said:

That's exactly what happened during Hurricane Charley in 2004.  This is very reminiscent of that, and that would be a bad thing.

August 13, a Friday. It was bad on Cape Coral that day. I lost my house and sailboat. You don't want to be anywhere near where a cat 4 hits. You want to be on another continent with a cat 5.

[Gator Hazard]

We are hoping it won't be too crazy. We are in Tampa and not near any coastline. We are well stocked and prepared. Just have to clean my gutters out and put down the sandbags on my back sliding doors. They are only area that if rain comes really fast and hard some can get into house. Then will put my backyard furniture in garage.