Who Is More Likely to Win Another Major First - McIlroy or Speith?

[Patch]

I went with Mcllroy. I don't follow the pro circuits that much, but from what I have seen, and/or read, he seems to be the better, more consistent golfer of the two. This, even though he has his runs of highs, and lows golf play. His low points are much better than most of the other golfers' low points.. 

[JxQx]

I'll take Spieth. He's got a 7 months before the next major to work on his game and seems to be trending the right direction.

[Wally Fairway]

I picked Jordan - because I'm a big fan, and the next major is being played at ANGC. 

Now if I had to bet on one to win before the other it would likely be Rory, but that wasn't the question.

[HJJ003]

Rory. Tee to green he is good enough he just needs the putter to be hot on the right week. 

[JGus]

2 hours ago, Yukari said:

You couldn't pick a better donut than that for illustration???  I hate sprinkles especially rainbow sprinkles.

Sorry, was the first one that came up...And I'll go with Rory as well.

[rehmwa]

1 hour ago, JGus said:

Sorry, was the first one that came up...And I'll go with Rory as well.

[klineka]

2 hours ago, JxQx said:

I'll take Spieth. He's got a 7 months before the next major to work on his game and seems to be trending the right direction.

Curious why you would choose someone who is "trending in the right direction" over someone who is clearly already "there" and has been "there" for quite some time.

 

[Zeph]

You wouldn't put money on Spieth at this time. Rory is streaky and it is Augusta, but you don't pick the 33rd in the world over Rory right now. 

What's goings on in april is anyone's guess, but Rory has been good over a longer period of time, so I'd pick him. 

[JxQx]

21 hours ago, klineka said:

Curious why you would choose someone who is "trending in the right direction" over someone who is clearly already "there" and has been "there" for quite some time.

 

I wouldn't really say Rory has been there for quite some time, he did miss the cut to the last major of the year. Since this is only about majors and not just any tournament win it weighs pretty heavily.

[klineka]

46 minutes ago, JxQx said:

I wouldn't really say Rory has been there for quite some time, he did miss the cut to the last major of the year. 

Finishes in majors last season

Rory

The Masters T21

PGA Championship T8

US Open T9

The Open CUT

Round 4 scoring average 69.6

 

Spieth

The Masters T21

PGA Championship T3

US Open T65

The Open T20

Round 4 Scoring average 73.75

 

So yes Spieth did make the cut in all 4 majors, but half of his final round scores in the majors last season were 76 or higher. 

Rory is also a significantly better driver of the golf ball than Spieth is, which is very important in the majors, where the courses tend to be longer with thicker rough.

I also think results in non majors should be taken into consideration as well, as it gives a broader indication to how the player has been playing and "trending"

Spieth consistently struggled to shoot low scores in the final rounds last season and the majors were no different.

In 22 starts last year (including missed cuts) Spieth shot round 4 scores in the 60s 3 times. (72.4 round 4 scoring average)

In 18 starts last year Rory shot round 4 scores in the 60s 8 times. (69.5 round 4 scoring average)

So we are comparing the best player off the tee last season(1st strokes gained off the tee) who had one bad round and missed the cut in one major but consistently showed that he could go low in final rounds, vs one of the worst players off the tee last season (176th strokes gained off the tee) who made the cut in all 4 majors but consistently showed that he was prone to putting up huge numbers in the final rounds.

Other than the fact that The Masters is the first tournament of the year next year and Spieth has had more success there than Rory has(worth mentioning that Rory does have 5 consecutive top 10 finishes at The Masters), I don't see any other evidence that suggests Spieth is more likely to win another major before Rory will.

[leftybutnotPM]

Hovland.

[GoldenEagle]

I'm going with Rory. I enjoy watching both of these guys and both have had amazing careers so far. However, Jordan hasn't won anything in two years. I'm sure he's just hoping to win any tournament right now. Both can be streaky, but Rory has never been as lost as Jordan seems right now.

[leftybutnotPM]

11 hours ago, JxQx said:

I wouldn't really say Rory has been there for quite some time, he did miss the cut to the last major of the year. Since this is only about majors and not just any tournament win it weighs pretty heavily.

I would say that Rory has been there since he was 16 years of age. He just needs to assemble all parts of his game in the same week.

When he does no-one can touch hm because next to Tiger, he is probably the most naturally gifted player there has ever been. In terms of raw talent, there is Tiger and Rory at their best and then daylight.

[p1n9183]

Rory all day long. He is in his game rigth now. Spieth is still searching for his. 

[JxQx]

21 hours ago, klineka said:

Finishes in majors last season

Rory

The Masters T21

PGA Championship T8

US Open T9

The Open CUT

Round 4 scoring average 69.6

 

Spieth

The Masters T21

PGA Championship T3

US Open T65

The Open T20

Round 4 Scoring average 73.75

 

So yes Spieth did make the cut in all 4 majors, but half of his final round scores in the majors last season were 76 or higher. 

Rory is also a significantly better driver of the golf ball than Spieth is, which is very important in the majors, where the courses tend to be longer with thicker rough.

I also think results in non majors should be taken into consideration as well, as it gives a broader indication to how the player has been playing and "trending"

Spieth consistently struggled to shoot low scores in the final rounds last season and the majors were no different.

In 22 starts last year (including missed cuts) Spieth shot round 4 scores in the 60s 3 times. (72.4 round 4 scoring average)

In 18 starts last year Rory shot round 4 scores in the 60s 8 times. (69.5 round 4 scoring average)

So we are comparing the best player off the tee last season(1st strokes gained off the tee) who had one bad round and missed the cut in one major but consistently showed that he could go low in final rounds, vs one of the worst players off the tee last season (176th strokes gained off the tee) who made the cut in all 4 majors but consistently showed that he was prone to putting up huge numbers in the final rounds.

Other than the fact that The Masters is the first tournament of the year next year and Spieth has had more success there than Rory has(worth mentioning that Rory does have 5 consecutive top 10 finishes at The Masters), I don't see any other evidence that suggests Spieth is more likely to win another major before Rory will.

Missing a cut for a major isn't exactly new to Rory, he has missed a cut every year for the last 4 years. To me that says a lot about his play at majors. Since we are talking about a distant future event that, the history of missed cuts weighs more heavily on my decision than current play.

[klineka]

4 minutes ago, JxQx said:

Missing a cut for a major isn't exactly new to Rory, he has missed a cut every year for the last 4 years. To me that says a lot about his play at majors. Since we are talking about a distant future event that, the history of missed cuts weighs more heavily on my decision than current play.

Even with the multiple missed cuts in majors, Rory still has more top 10s in majors over the last 4 years (8) than Spieth does (5).

I don't understand why you are weighting Rory's missed cuts in majors so heavily while ignoring the fact that pretty much every other statistic points to the idea that Rory is a better golfer and is more likely to win another major before Spieth will.

17 minutes ago, JxQx said:

the history of missed cuts weighs more heavily on my decision than current play.

Based on that logic, the history of Spieth's final round scoring average in the last 4 years of majors being a 71.2 compared to Rory's final round average of 69.5 should be a consideration as well.

So Rory has more top 10s in majors over the last 4 years than Spieth, a lower final round scoring average in those majors, has been a better player than Spieth based on strokes gained tee-to-green and total strokes gained 3 out of the last 4 years (including gaining OVER 2 strokes per round more on average than Spieth in 2019), but yet simply because Rory has missed a cut every year for the last 4 years you think Spieth will win a major first? That doesn't make sense to me.

I don't see how anyone can logically come to the conclusion that Spieth is more likely to win before Rory based on the numbers/stats/knowledge of both players and their games.

[JxQx]

1 hour ago, klineka said:

Even with the multiple missed cuts in majors, Rory still has more top 10s in majors over the last 4 years (8) than Spieth does (5).

I don't understand why you are weighting Rory's missed cuts in majors so heavily while ignoring the fact that pretty much every other statistic points to the idea that Rory is a better golfer and is more likely to win another major before Spieth will.

Based on that logic, the history of Spieth's final round scoring average in the last 4 years of majors being a 71.2 compared to Rory's final round average of 69.5 should be a consideration as well.

So Rory has more top 10s in majors over the last 4 years than Spieth, a lower final round scoring average in those majors, has been a better player than Spieth based on strokes gained tee-to-green and total strokes gained 3 out of the last 4 years (including gaining OVER 2 strokes per round more on average than Spieth in 2019), but yet simply because Rory has missed a cut every year for the last 4 years you think Spieth will win a major first? That doesn't make sense to me.

I don't see how anyone can logically come to the conclusion that Spieth is more likely to win before Rory based on the numbers/stats/knowledge of both players and their games.

Well I've explained myself a few times now so if you don't get it, that's fine. You don't have to agree with it, that is also fine. But I'm going to stop repeating myself. Many golfers have won majors against the odds (or stats).

[klineka]

10 minutes ago, JxQx said:

Well I've explained myself a few times now so if you don't get it, that's fine. You don't have to agree with it, that is also fine. But I'm going to stop repeating myself. Many golfers have won majors against the odds (or stats).

I get what you are saying, but I don't understand the logic/reasoning behind what you are saying.

Why does Rory's missed cuts in majors weigh so much heavier in your decision than other stats/facts?