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iacas

General COVID-19 Topic

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I think we all know that some people are clueless.  People in small rural areas where the healthcare system is not overwhelmed are a good example.  They don't know what the new normal is.

My BIL is in a very small, very Ozarky Southern Missouri town that had not had any cases in the County . . . until yesterday one got confirmed.

So, my wife was talking to him, and he was like, "Yeah I was in so-and-so's this morning, and he said the guy that has it has been there a lot.  He was sitting inn that chair just the other day."  Of course, my wife said, "Well, so-and-so has been exposed, and now you have been exposed, plus everyone you've been around."

He was clueless.  

It's not like those college kids partying on the beach, but it's the same thing, being around people who have been around people who have it.  It started with one guy walking through Grand Central Station in NYC.

It's our normal time to go back to Missouri from our Florida home, and I check both areas every day.  Both are close to hot spots, but not in them.

- - - - - -

Lacking any national support, guidance or organization, it's good to see some of the Governors taking charge, and cooperating with others.  Excess vents are being flown from California to New York, and Inslee offered a Washington field hospital to wherever needs it more.

Lots of private sector help, too.

 

Edited by Cartboy

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1 hour ago, dennyjones said:

I don't believe we'll ever know all of the numbers even here in the US.   Sure we may know the deaths but we'll never know who was affected but showed no signs of the virus.   The scary part, these people could/can spread Covid-19 just as easily as people with symptoms.  

It is said that 4 out of the 5 people who spread the virus don't have symptoms themselves.

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The rural areas are really concerning.  My parents have a house over in Clay County, Alabama (pop. 15,000 +/-) and when it does arrive there, the little local hospital will have no chance of taking care of the sick.  Thankfully, they are over here in the Atlanta area.

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1 hour ago, dennyjones said:

I don't believe we'll ever know all of the numbers even here in the US. Sure we may know the deaths

We don't even know those numbers, because some number of COVID-19 deaths are caused by other things, but being chalked up as COVID-19. And some other deaths which may be COVID-19 are probably marked as something else, or were in January and February here in the U.S. before it became more widely understood.

18 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

It is said that 4 out of the 5 people who spread the virus don't have symptoms themselves.

Again, the positives from that are that the virus may have already hit a larger percentage of the population than was previously thought, which means we're closer to a herd immunity state, closer to allowing those people to return to work, and that the mortality rate is perhaps significantly lower than we thought.

If the mortality rate in the U.S. is  2%, but that's only among known COVID-19 cases, and there are actually 5x as many COVID-19 cases as tested… then the mortality rate may be 0.4% or less.

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  I dont know what it really looks like in other parts of the country.  I am in Spokane WA.  Even with the shutdown of some businesses, and stay at home orders it really doesn't seem too much different here.  They are saying traffic is down.  But my guess is it cant be down more then 20-25% because its not really noticeable.  I know that alot of small businesses are closed and i haven't been "downtown" to see what it looks like but i dont see ghost town at all driving around.

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36 minutes ago, oregongolfguy said:

  I dont know what it really looks like in other parts of the country.  I am in Spokane WA.  Even with the shutdown of some businesses, and stay at home orders it really doesn't seem too much different here.  They are saying traffic is down.  But my guess is it cant be down more then 20-25% because its not really noticeable.  I know that alot of small businesses are closed and i haven't been "downtown" to see what it looks like but i dont see ghost town at all driving around.

Traffic is noticeable lighter here. Many factories are closed and more are closing as time goes on and they run out of work. We (my company) are doing better than most but definitely seeing a big slowdown. Our unemployment system is overwhelmed and the site continuously crashes. It seems apocalyptic...

Edited by CarlSpackler
Calrified "We"

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43 minutes ago, oregongolfguy said:

  I dont know what it really looks like in other parts of the country.  I am in Spokane WA.  Even with the shutdown of some businesses, and stay at home orders it really doesn't seem too much different here.  They are saying traffic is down.  But my guess is it cant be down more then 20-25% because its not really noticeable.  I know that alot of small businesses are closed and i haven't been "downtown" to see what it looks like but i dont see ghost town at all driving around.

Around greater Seattle, you would see a difference. Its mostly at typical rush hour that it obviously shows. During the day, especially when it’s nice out, people will be out and about doing outdoorsy things. So, it may not show as much.

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5 hours ago, Cartboy said:

My BIL is in a very small, very Ozarky Southern Missouri town that had not had any cases in the County . . . until yesterday one got confirmed.

So, my wife was talking to him, and he was like, "Yeah I was in so-and-so's this morning, and he said the guy that has it has been there a lot.  He was sitting inn that chair just the other day."  Of course, my wife said, "Well, so-and-so has been exposed, and now you have been exposed, plus everyone you've been around."

He was clueless.  

 

 

My wife said that he said that he and our Great Nephew are quarantined for 14 days, but he didn't give the details.

He's a rural mail carrier, and mail carriers would be open to a lot of exposure.

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Michigan governor just again when asked about golf courses and landscaping companies was explicit.  No.    She created an executive order limiting what the big box stores can sell, no more garden supplies, carpet, flooring basically anything non-essential.  Michigan is now limiting people in the stores to 4 / 1000 sq ft.  

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On 4/6/2020 at 9:42 AM, iacas said:

Also, the mortality rate is almost a complete unknown right now, because it does not include people who had the disease and suffered no or little symptoms, and so were never tested.

Honest question: Aren't the methods used to get Covid mortality rate the same methods used for any other illness, like flu? 

I.e., we don't know how many people had the flu but didn't show symptoms, or had symptoms but weren't treated, but we must have a way of estimating the accepted mortality numbers. So are the numbers for Covid any less accurate than those for the flu?  If so why, and if not then isn't it reasonable to compare Covid mortality rate numbers to those of the flu, and in so doing legitimately say Covid is at least 20x more fatal?

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42 minutes ago, sacm3bill said:

Honest question: Aren't the methods used to get Covid mortality rate the same methods used for any other illness, like flu? 

I.e., we don't know how many people had the flu but didn't show symptoms, or had symptoms but weren't treated, but we must have a way of estimating the accepted mortality numbers. So are the numbers for Covid any less accurate than those for the flu?  If so why, and if not then isn't it reasonable to compare Covid mortality rate numbers to those of the flu, and in so doing legitimately say Covid is at least 20x more fatal?

Numbers become much more accurate when you can have large numbers of tests performed. The rapid flu test is easily done in 10 minutes and available massively. [Covid] testing has been poorly done. There is so much unknown. So it isn’t reasonable to compare the mortality rates of Covid to influenza. Regardless of the statistics being generated, when a virus comes out that shows rapid spread and potentially lethal consequences...and we don’t have sufficient testing available, no vaccine and no reliable treatment...it’s going to generate what you’ve seen.

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1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

Numbers become much more accurate when you can have large numbers of tests performed. The rapid flu test is easily done in 10 minutes and available massively. [Covid] testing has been poorly done....

I'll give you that the mortality rate might for Covid might be less accurate because the people with obvious symptoms can't be tested as readily.  But I was responding to the quote from Eric where he said "The mortality rate is almost a complete unknown right now, because it does not include people who had the disease and suffered no or little symptoms, and so were never tested".  My point is simply that, likewise, the rate for seasonal flu could not include people who had the flu and suffered little or no symptoms (since those people don't get tested - in fact even people *with* greater symptoms don't all get tested - I know I never have).  Yet they still manage to come up with a mortality rate. 

 

Edited by sacm3bill
clarified

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5 hours ago, sacm3bill said:

I'll give you that the mortality rate might for Covid might be less accurate because the people with obvious symptoms can't be tested as readily.  But I was responding to the quote from Eric where he said "The mortality rate is almost a complete unknown right now, because it does not include people who had the disease and suffered no or little symptoms, and so were never tested".  My point is simply that, likewise, the rate for seasonal flu could not include people who had the flu and suffered little or no symptoms (since those people don't get tested - in fact even people *with* greater symptoms don't all get tested - I know I never have).  Yet they still manage to come up with a mortality rate. 

 

 

Obviously a true rate can’t be established if we don’t know the actual number of people who have it be it flu or any other virus. But what can be looked at is number of deaths among those who are confirmed with the infection. Of course for flu we have much higher numbers due to ease of testing so we get an idea of its mortality simply due to a much larger population size ( those tested.) But although the testing is much less with Covid we get a ‘higher’ number of deaths so it’s speculated that it’s serious. 

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I went to my doctor's office yesterday for an unrelated issue. I asked if they are ready for the big surge. She rolled her eyes and said, "That was in February." I told her that I think it's what I had when I saw her back in January. She asked what the symptoms were. I said, "It started with fever followed by 2 weeks of coughing and shortness of breath." She nodded and said, "Yep. They really need to get this antibody test rolling." Is it possible that it's already made it's rounds in the states like Ohio with a flatter curve?

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The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.

 

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On 4/9/2020 at 6:48 AM, bwdial said:

My wife and I are pretty certain that we had it in January.  We both had symptoms that we couldn't shake, including the tightness in the chest and congestion, but coughs refused to produce any phlegm.  It sounded like a wet cough, but it was dry and hacking.  She got checked for the flu, but was negative.

I think a couple of buddies of mine had it in Jan/Feb time.  One had what he thought was a really bad flu.  He said it was the worst he felt in his life.  The other, whom I played golf with the day before he came down with symptoms, also said the same thing.  So I may already have been exposed and be one of those fortunate people that doesn't have any symptoms.

But just in case, I may be wrong, I am still keeping social distance.

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