Jump to content
Valleygolfer

Tiger Woods Master Catch-All Discussion

3,228 posts / 237588 viewsLast Reply

Recommended Posts

Just a couple of notes about how good Tiger (and Brooks) were this week:

264 (Brooks) is the lowest winning score for a PGA Championship ever, and Tiger’s 266 would have won outright every stroke play PGA Championship ever, except for David Toms’ win at 265 in 2001, and would have tied Jimmy Walker at 266 in 2016. That’s 58 out of 61 stroke play PGA’s that would have been won outright.

Also, looking at Tiger’s winning scores in all of his PGA Tour victories, 266 was better than 69 of the 79 overall. 

 

Edited by sofingaw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Want to hide this ad? Register for free today!

Also, 266 is lower than all Open Championship scores except Stenson’s 264 in 2016, and is lower than any score ever at the Masters or US Open. 

Understanding that this years scoring was low for a major, this is all very impressive and encouraging, still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Another nugget is that Tiger's 66-66-64 weekend was his lowest last 54 holes in a major tournament ever, including those 14 he won. By three shots. The course is of course a big part of the score, but he played really well. And he finished two shots behind Koepka, with a bogey, double start on the first two holes Thursday.

Time for more stats. They got 41 measured rounds, which gives the number crunches something to work with.

tigerstats.png

There is one glaring weakness that's been present all year: Accuracy off the tee. Most notably with the driver, but there's also been a few wayward 3-woods and irons. On the final round of the PGA, he hit only 5/14 fairways, but still found 12/18 greens. More impressively, he shot 64, with two bogies. Tiger has always been the best at getting out of a bad place and somehow finding and pulling out some amazing shots, and that's something he hasn't forgotten the last 10 years. If anything, his inaccuracy off the tee gives him lots of opportunities to hit these kind of shots. He's 176th out of 205 players in driving accuracy. He is of course one of the longer hitters and when he first finds the fairway, intermediate or short rough with a shot at the green, he's giving himself a lot of opportunities by being able to hit short irons. The top three at the FedEx cup, DJ, JT and Koepka are also quite a bit down the list on driving accuray, but pretty high up on the list of driving distance. Less accuracy on longer hitters is of course expected. Simple math explains why you're likely to hit less fairways the longer you are. And maybe also the fact that longer hitters swing faster, maybe making a swing more likely to deviate more than a slower swinger and shorter hitter.

He's been playing as well as he has primarily because of his irons, but also short game and putting. Putting has been up and down this year, but it's steadily improved. Without his iron play, he wouldn't have been anywhere near a shot at winning something this year. At The Open he also struggled off the tee in the final round, only hitting 6/15 fairways. It's probably nerves and insecurity about his game off the tee, which shows itself more than anything in the final round. We've also seen a clear tendency to first tee jitters and that he often starts tournaments quite poor.

That said, let's look at his tee shots this week.

Round 1: 9 on fairway, 1 miss right, 4 miss left.
Round 2: 8 on fairway, 4 miss right, 2 miss left.
Round 3: 10 on fairway, 3 miss right, 1 miss left.
Round 4: 5 on fairway, 5 miss right, 4 miss left.

The first three days are pretty good, but he still dropped 5 shots on those three rounds after missing fairways, and he's mising both ways. If his misses were consistent, he could set up left or right and find fairways even if he cuts or pulls it a little too much, but with two-way misses, it becomes extremely frustrating and difficult. When you miss 5 left and 5 right in one round, where do you aim? This course was maybe especially difficult since it's got a lot of doglegs left, and Tiger usually hits a fade.

If Tiger stays healthy and plays the same way he's done this year, he will win before too long. If he stays healthly and gets his tee shots in order, or at least narrowed to a one-way miss, he can win a lot. With how good his irons are, turning more of those holes where he has to rescue himself from the rough into potential birdie holes is a big deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

9 hours ago, 70sSanO said:

At 42, and so many surgeries, he will have a tough time against the younger players who molded their power games after Tiger.  He has kept not only his die hard fans, but I think he has converted a number of non-Tiger fans who are rooting for this version of Tiger against the world.

This doesnt make sense. Tiger just finished 2nd in a major, shot a 64 without hitting a fairway on the front, and had 3 putts that lipped out or burned the edge, in addition to the eagle chance from 17 ft he 3 putted on the 17th to close out his 3rd round, how is that "having a tough time against the younger players" ?

 

Tiger averages 304 yds with his driver and 289 on all drives. That's long enough to handle any course they face on tour, and the 304 yds is 34th on tour this season. Pretty impressive IMO.

I dont understand why you think he will have a tough time against the younger players. Sure I dont expect him to keep these numbers up for 10 years, but for now he has shown no signs of having a tough time against younger players in terms of raw power/distance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Don't get me wrong, for someone who had a tough time walking not to long ago it borders the miraculous what Tiger has done this past year.  But he is 42 and there is no telling how long he will hold up.

My observation has to do with not only the length but the overall fitness level of the top young players today.  Tiger ushered in that fitness and a lot of his younger competition has been hitting the gym for years, unlike his older competition when he broke into the game.  The John Daly era is gone.  There are also fewer holes in the younger players' games.

I'm hoping Tiger tears it up next year and wins a major and a few tournaments, but he is pretty much an old man at this stage of his career.  It is great watching him back out there.

John

Edited by 70sSanO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

After all the years of injury and personal problems Tiger is playing at age 42 the way I would have expected him to without the melodrama of the last 10 years.  Watching the amazing recovery shots he made demonstrated his raw talent and he certainly can keep up with the young guns.  If he can tame his driver he has multiple wins ahead of him and perhaps a major or two.  To be at this stage in his first year back was beyond my expectations (and maybe Tiger's). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

3 minutes ago, 70sSanO said:

There are also fewer holes in the younger players' games.

Not sure I buy that. The young players have only been playing against each other. The holes in their games don't get exposed because there is no one out there who is good enough to regularly expose them. If Tiger keeps improving and were to get back to his best, I think you'll see the young players "fold". They won't actually be folding any more than they are right now, but it will be made more obvious by having one guy out there who is that good. 

I don't know if Tiger will hold up or if he will continue to improve, but I am hopeful. He dropped three shots in his first two holes last week and wound up two back. His putter got cold Saturday afternoon and he's definitely not yet at his best. He has shown flashes of it in each part of his game. Once he gets them all together at once, watch out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

2 hours ago, colin007 said:

@iacas, how would you fix Tiger's driver?

I don't know. I haven't really looked at it from that perspective.

4 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

Not sure I buy that. The young players have only been playing against each other. The holes in their games don't get exposed because there is no one out there who is good enough to regularly expose them.

I think they have better overall games with fewer holes. The strength and depth of field is a little better now than in 1997 or even 2005.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

12 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

Not sure I buy that. The young players have only been playing against each other. The holes in their games don't get exposed because there is no one out there who is good enough to regularly expose them.

Insert eye rolling emoji... Lets not get into depth of field again. There is another thread dedicated to that. I will say, you are wrong. If you want to argue against that, take it to the depth of field thread.

12 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

If Tiger keeps improving and were to get back to his best, I think you'll see the young players "fold". They won't actually be folding any more than they are right now, but it will be made more obvious by having one guy out there who is that good. 

I doubt it. Koepka, saw Tiger post -14. He kept hitting greens and fairways. He did it against a crowd hyped up by Tiger draining that birdie putt on 18. Nice try, but I don't by your claim. It's not founded on anything factual.

19 minutes ago, NJpatbee said:

If he can tame his driver he has multiple wins ahead of him and perhaps a major or two.  To be at this stage in his first year back was beyond my expectations (and maybe Tiger's). 

Tiger dominated in 2006 and 2007 with a ranking of 139 and 152 in driving accuracy.

Maybe it's the field being better at driving the ball than it was in 2007. Tiger only averaged 4% better in driving accuracy 2007 than in 2018.

 

 

Edited by saevel25

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

28 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Insert eye rolling emoji... Lets not get into depth of field again. There is another thread dedicated to that. I will say, you are wrong. If you want to argue against that, take it to the depth of field thread.

I doubt it. Koepka, saw Tiger post -14. He kept hitting greens and fairways. He did it against a crowd hyped up by Tiger draining that birdie putt on 18. Nice try, but I don't by your claim. It's not founded on anything factual.

Tiger dominated in 2006 and 2007 with a ranking of 139 and 152 in driving accuracy.

Maybe it's the field being better at driving the ball than it was in 2007. Tiger only averaged 4% better in driving accuracy 2007 than in 2018.

 

 

My point was more that if Tiger had posted -20, then Koepka wouldn't have had anything he could have done at that point and it may look like they are all folding. That's why I put fold in quotes. Take the 2000 US Open. If Tiger hadn't been playing, it would have been a great tournament and really close. People would have been talking about how tough the course played and how +3 wound up in a playoff. As it is, no one talks about any of that, because Tiger made it irrelevant.

As to the depth of field thing, I don't disagree with you that the field depth is much higher. I would also happily buy that DJ and Brooks are better players than Vijay and Phil and Retief and Ernie were back in 2005. My point there was that some people seem to think that the field were incredible until 1997, then they fell away drastically for about 15 years and now they're back. The reason people think that is because for a 15ish year spell there was one guy who was far and away better than everyone else. If he gets back to being that, then the field are going to appear to have suddenly got worse again. They won't actually have. It will just look that way for the people who try to undermine Tiger's legacy. 

Yes the field is better now than ten years ago, but they are not immune to wobbling. Spieth wobbled at Carnoustie. DJ wobbled Saturday at Shinnecock. They all do. They just don't always have one person cleaning up when they do, so it's not called out so much. I'm on your side on most of this...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

56 minutes ago, 70sSanO said:

Don't get me wrong, for someone who had a tough time walking not to long ago it borders the miraculous what Tiger has done this past year.  But he is 42 and there is no telling how long he will hold up.

My observation has to do with not only the length but the overall fitness level of the top young players today.  Tiger ushered in that fitness and a lot of his younger competition has been hitting the gym for years, unlike his older competition when he broke into the game.  The John Daly era is gone.  There are also fewer holes in the younger players' games.

I'm hoping Tiger tears it up next year and wins a major and a few tournaments, but he is pretty much an old man at this stage of his career.  It is great watching him back out there.

John

I agree.  Seeing him have a serious shot at a win on the back 9 of the last day of two majors (Open Championship and PGA Championship) was impressive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

I have a question for guys like @iacas and @mvmac. We've all mentioned, heck, we've gone on and on about, Tiger's struggles off the tee with his driver (even his long iron yesterday). I certainly don't know enough about the golf swing to know what's wrong. I'd bet you guys have watched and dissected his swing(s) over the years. He was always a bit shaky since he went to graphite, but I don't remember it being this bad. What do you think his problem is, and will he ever be able to fix it once and for all? Or will this always be his proverbial "Achilles heel"?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

2 minutes ago, GrandStranded said:

I have a question for guys like @iacas and @mvmac. We've all mentioned, heck, we've gone on and on about, Tiger's struggles off the tee with his driver (even his long iron yesterday). I certainly don't know enough about the golf swing to know what's wrong. I'd bet you guys have watched and dissected his swing(s) over the years. He was always a bit shaky since he went to graphite, but I don't remember it being this bad. What do you think his problem is, and will he ever be able to fix it once and for all? Or will this always be his proverbial "Achilles heel"?  

I don't know.

I don't really watch too much for that aspect.

I think he could fix it. Asking for a prediction is asking whether he should and/or will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

43 minutes ago, iacas said:

I don't know.

I don't really watch too much for that aspect.

I think he could fix it. Asking for a prediction is asking whether he should and/or will.

I didn't word my question well. What I meant to ask was, do you think the problem is some sort of physical restriction due to his back fusion or other surgeries? Or is it just some flaw in his swing? I remember back at the beginning of the year, you seemed to know a bit about the type of surgery he had. It just seems so strange to see him hit all the incredible shots he does, then be so erratic when his ball is teed up. He obviously is generating enough speed, I'm wondering if he just has trouble physically getting to a certain position while attaining all that speed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

2 minutes ago, GrandStranded said:

What I meant to ask was, do you think the problem is some sort of physical restriction due to his back fusion or other surgeries? Or is it just some flaw in his swing?

B

2 minutes ago, GrandStranded said:

I remember back at the beginning of the year, you seemed to know a bit about the type of surgery he had.

I read about it. And listened to other people who had the same type of surgery.

The driver is in many ways the most difficult club to hit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awards, Achievements, and Accolades

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Want to join this community?

    We'd love to have you!

    Sign Up
  • 2019 TST Partners

    PING Golf
    FlightScope Mevo
  • Posts

    • I thought about this a while, and then had an epiphany last night.  Without a perfect test, the answer is almost definitely no. It's a fairly simple statistical calculation called Bayes' Theorem. The end result is that you'll end up preventing more people from driving when they aren't drunk than preventing drunk drivers. I'm going to plug in numbers, but since I'm (likely correctly!) assuming drunk driving is a rare event, the numbers don't really matter that much. I'm also going to assume the test is extremely accurate. Let's say that in 1/10,000 car trips, the driver is too drunk to legally drive. This is probably an underestimation by a factor of 100, if not more, if you think about how many car trips there are in a day. Let's assume that the when the test is positive, the driver is drunk 99.9% of the time. And then assume that when the test is negative, the driver is sober 99.9% of the time (in other words, if the test is negative, the driver is drunk 0.1% of the time). We can use this to plug in probabilities for each event. Probability that a driver is drunk: .0001 Probability that a driver is sober: .9999 Probability that a drunk driver gets a positive test: .999 Probability that a drunk driver gets a negative test: .001 Probability that a sober driver gets a positive test: .001 Probability that a sober driver gets a negative test: .999 Bayes' Theorem applies here. It says: The probability that someone is drunk driver given a positive test is equal to the probability of a drunk driver gets a positive test times the probability of a drunk driver; that divided by the following: the probability of a drunk getting a positive test times probability of a drunk driver plus the probability of sober driver getting a positive test times the probability of a sober driver. In mathematic terms (DD=drunk driver; SD = sober driver; + = positive test): P(DD | +) = (P(+ | DD)*P(DD))/((P+ | DD)*P(DD)+P(+ | SD)*P(SD)) Plug in the numbers: P(DD | +) = ((.999)*(.0001))/((.999)*(.0001)+(.001)*(.9999)) P(DD | +) = .0908 In other words, the probability of a drunk driver given a positive test is only 9%. Meaning that out of a 100 people that test positive under this test, 91 of them would actually be sober. Because the test is imperfect and drunk driving is rare, it's going to impact more sober drivers than drunk drivers. Even if the test is 99.99% accurate and as a false positive rate of 0.01%, the probability of a drunk driver given a positive test is only 50%. Note that I'm assuming that 1/10,000 car trips is one by a drunk driver. If you assume 1/100,000 car trips are by a drunk driver, the probability of a drunk driver given a positive test is 0.9%. (You can also use this calculate to find out the odds that a drunk driver will have a negative test, but I have other stuff to do now...) So, without a nearly perfect test, it's a bad idea for the entire population. If drunk drivers were more frequent, then it would make more sense. Hence, it makes sense for someone who is more likely to drive drunk, and why the current policy probably makes sense. 
    • Hey Ben, good to see you’re still around!   I remember those irons. They’re beautiful! Sorry, I can’t help with the driver though…
    • Sometimes this is called a Telehandler, and sometimes its called a Rough Terrain Fork Lift. It all depends on where you live. 
    • Dragging the handle without the correct wrist movements to go with it can lead to an open clubface at impact. But without a video it's hard to determine the underlying cause of your problem.
    • I'd go with this system over either of those. I have seen automatic braking systems malfunction before and it turns catastrophic in an instant. The incredibly unfortunate part is that automatic braking systems also have a disturbingly high number of ways they can be fooled. The two I have seen personally were leaves covering up the sensor (slammed the brakes on someone in town and caused a collision) and bugs from I-70 covering the sensor (the car locked up and the brakes remained engaged until the sensor covering could be cleaned). As far as GPS-enforced speed limits, this also introduces danger on the roads. It prevents drivers from making effective evasive maneuvers when driving at the speed limit. Malfunctions for this system would also be incredibly dangerous, considering the number one cause of traffic accidents is a differential in speed between the two cars that collided. If one car is limited to 10mph under the speed limit because their GPS glitched out then they just became a sitting duck on the road, though not as bad as the automatic braking malfunction. I'm fine with mandatory safety measures that don't risk lives compared to the alternative of not having them, such as seat belts and air bags. If those fail you may die, but if they fail you are no worse off than you would have been if the safety measures were never installed. I draw the line at mandatory safety measures that will actively risk your safety or life when they fail. Automatic braking systems that will slam the brakes in highway traffic. GPS-enforced speed limits that can hamper evasive maneuvers and cause the same symptoms as automatic braking system failures (if an error displays a limit lower than the true limit). And yes, mandatory BAC interlock devices for law-abiding citizens that can leave them stranded and stuck with a very costly repair bill in the best case scenario and death in the worst case scenario. If we want to talk about personal anecdotes about why it's incredibly important to be able to start you vehicle at any time, I've got the perfect example of how this can risk lives in real scenarios that actually happen. When I was 17 I took the bus with my friends down to the annual Denver Avalanche game and we hung out at the 16th Street Mall afterwards until we caught the last bus back to where our cars were parked. Having parked in opposite corners we parted ways getting off the bus and went to our cars, my friends having no issues driving home. I, on the other hand, had some trouble with starting my vehicle. You see that year the temperature was 15 degrees below zero and my car was an old (1979) Mercedes 240D diesel. Diesel engines don't particularly like the cold, so I cycled the glow plugs several times before trying to start. No dice, so I repeated that. This went on until my car battery died at around 2 AM, and the worst part of it was that stupidly I was only wearing jeans, a t-shirt, and a sweatshirt with no jacket or coat. The buses had finished their schedules and the park and ride was empty (I was the last car) in the middle of nowhere without areas I could take shelter nearby. I was lucky to have a mylar blanket and a comforter in the trunk of my car that I kept there only because my Grandpa insisted I'd need them if I was ever stranded in the cold. I wasn't able to get assistance at my location until 5:30 that morning because it was located in the mountain, a lovely cell phone dead zone. 3.5 hours spent in -15 degree weather with only jeans and a sweatshirt. Even sitting in my car without exposure to wind I would have risked frostbite in 30 minutes or less, and that temperature presents a high risk of hypothermia even with proper winter clothing. While wearing winter clothing at that temperature you'll lose one degree of core body temperature about every 30 minutes, sooner if you have no hat. Below 95 degrees (2 hours) is the beginning of hypothermia, below 93 degrees (3 hours) is when amnesia sets in. Profound hypothermia is 90 degrees (4.5 hours) and you'll find yourself no longer even shivering to keep warm. At 86 degrees (6.5 hours) your heart starts to pump arrhythmically. At 85 degrees (7 hours) you'll rip off your clothes for your final minutes of life. Those times are for proper winter clothing. When an ignition interlock device fails, it WILL kill people in the mountains every single year. People who went camping, skiing, hiking, or hunting and get back to their car in the evening only to have it refuse to start. Cell service is sparse at best in these areas, meaning only those prepared with extra blankets/gear and the ability to start fires will survive through the night without heat from their vehicle. I say when, not if, because the failure rate will be above 0%. 15 million new cars are sold each year, and if the failure rate is 0.01% annually then you'd see 1,500 failures in the first year, growing by another 1,500 every year and providing 1,500 more opportunities to kill in either what was described or other scenarios. This is exactly why using emotional arguments is dumb, because realistically the number of deaths would be small but a personal anecdote carries additional weight. The point is that any deaths that directly result from a safety device are unacceptable even if that safety device may save lives in other circumstances. Trading lives of innocent and law-abiding citizens because of a small number of criminals is morally reprehensible on every level.
  • TST Blog Entries

  • Blog Entries

  • Today's Birthdays

    1. Edsland
      Edsland
      (65 years old)
    2. KingHack82
      KingHack82
      (37 years old)
    3. snowbeast
      snowbeast
      (32 years old)

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Welcome to TST! Signing up is free, and you'll see fewer ads and can talk with fellow golf enthusiasts! By using TST, you agree to our Terms of Use, our Privacy Policy, and our Guidelines.

The popup will be closed in 10 seconds...