2018 Masters Tournament Discussion Topic

[onthehunt526]

On 3/16/2018 at 11:30 AM, Dr. Manhattan said:

 

He definitely seems much happier now than he has ever been. But it seems to me like he has been a head case in majors ever since Yang beat him. He puts so much pressure on himself to win those tournaments that he can't get it done like he used to. I would like to see him get another green jacket because it seems like he has underachieved in that major compared to the others.

Jack and Arnold played a practice round with Tiger in 1995 and said he could/should win 10 of these things. He's stuck at 4 right next to Arnold. Lots of close calls where the putter didn't cooperate. It remains to be seen if he can put it all together. I would like to see him pull it off one of these years.

He's close, really close. Tiger winning his 5th green jacket in a little over two weeks would surprise no one. With the exception of two really bad drives yesterday, he's on. If he can just clean it up a tiny bit, where the really bad drives, are where he can play to the green from, look out.

Rory after his final round 64 at API, looks like a great pick to win and complete the career grand slam. Rory is probably the streakiest of the "kids" so nothing would surprise me there.

We are setting up for a 1986-type Masters and I'm loving it. I think if Tiger is ever going to come from behind to win a major, the Masters would be the one.

[onthehunt526]

@iacas I was watching the 1987 Masters last night, 

I realized two things...  you are correct that Augusta National is more of a tee shot course now since the changes... Prior to the 1999 Revamp, Augusta had absolutely no rough in reality (the rough was the first cut everywhere else). Now it has a second cut, it's not like other majors, but it does put more of a premium on driving. So Tiger needs to get that pull-hook out of his repertoire before April 5th. 

Secondly, I was correct that Augusta, even with the changes to this day is still a second shot golf course. In 1987, the last 7 groups that came through the 14th hole, not one player hit the green in regulation. Mize made 5, Strange chipped in for 3, Crenshaw made a 4, Chip Beck chipped in for 3, Jodie Mudd made 4 from over the back, Norman killed his drive, maybe the longest ever at 14, didn't keep it on the green with his pitch and run, Seve was in the fringe... The list goes on and on... Augusta plays it's most difficult when it is firm and fast... You can hit a great shot in the air that look like it's going to be really good, and you get the wrong bounces, or are 1 foot off, Augusta magnifies it... 

Faldo said it best a few years ago... Augusta makes you be so perfect, if you're off by the tiniest fraction, you're struggling to make par.

[iacas]

8 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

Secondly, I was correct that Augusta, even with the changes to this day is still a second shot golf course.

It's still a second-shot course, but whereas it used to be 20/80 (there was still an advantage to being in the proper half of the fairway), it's now maybe 40/60 driving/approach shot.

Consider:

1999 (Right) vs. October 31, 2017 (Left):

At 285 yards off the tee on the right, the fairway is 55 yards wide.

At 310 yards off the tee on the left, the fairway is 38 yards wide. (In the photo here it's 33 yards wide, but I mistakenly only went to the shadow, so when I measured to the edge of the fairway, it's 38 yards.)

The trees on the right (yellow) are all basically completely new - the old stand of trees on the 1999 image is much much older (and being to the right on this hole was the better angle to the hole). The old tee is highlighted in yellow on the newer image, too.

Look at 1997. Look at Tiger standing back in the fairway when they show some shots from the green. It was just a HUGE wide expanse of fairway. VERY VERY wide.

Look at 17.

At 275 in 1999 it was 50 yards wide. Now, at 310, it's under 30.

The spotty trees on the right are more in play (and much older), the trees on the left are almost all new, etc. Even though the Eisenhower tree is no longer there, it wasn't in play at all in 1999 (or 1997) as it was only 210 yards off the tee - the ball was still high in the air even if it was near the tree.

[saevel25]

They really did add trees in some strategy spots, that made the course more challenging off the tee.

#11, they drastically changed this hole (2017 in teal, image is 1993)

#9, they added trees to take away a bail right,

#15 & #17 they added a lot of trees internal to the course

I wouldn't mind them keeping the rough up slightly, and removing a lot of trees. Then at least it makes it tricky to control the spin out of the rough. Which for those greens should be enough to cause some trouble.

[Zeph]

The course got 450 yards longer from 2000 to 2010, from 6985 to 7435, but not gotten longer since then.

Zach Johnson won in 2007 with +1, which marked the first time since 1956 that it's been won with a score over par.

[Vinsk]

11 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

Tiger needs to get that pull-hook out of his repertoire before April 5th. 

He already has. His 3w.

[iacas]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

He already has. His 3w.

He can lose shots with that one, too.

[Dr. Manhattan]

7 minutes ago, iacas said:

He can lose shots with that one, too.

 

Unfortunately that's true. Out of bounds on the 3rd hole Thursday with 3-wood. Also had to pitch out of the rough/trees on Saturday which led to bogey on the 8th hole after a 3-wood foul ball. Wish he could get the same trusty 3-wood shot like Stenson.

[turtleback]

1 hour ago, Zeph said:

The course got 450 yards longer from 2000 to 2010, from 6985 to 7435, but not gotten longer since then.

Zach Johnson won in 2007 with +1, which marked the first time since 1956 that it's been won with a score over par.

I thought it was interesting that as far back as '97 Jack was quoted (in the broadcast of the final round) as saying that the Augusta Tiger was tearing up was much more difficult than the course he and Raymond Floyd had set the previous scoring record on.  And that was BEFORE all of the Tiger-proofing they subsequently did.

[skydog]

Rory at 10/1 odds trails only Tiger at 8/1. Rory looked really good last week, but I'm still not convinced he's comfortable at all on Augusta's greens. I would say the same for DJ also at 10/1. I've been wrong before though so we'll see. 

Phil at 18/1 seems a bit under-priced to me considering how well he's playing this year but he is fighting history a bit at this point with his age. 

[ScouseJohnny]

1 hour ago, skydog said:

Phil at 18/1 seems a bit under-priced to me

Likewise Bubba at 20/1. The only major Bubba has won. The only major I think Bubba will ever win, but hence there is something about Bubba and the Masters...

In the poll I voted for Tiger top 5; "someone not listed" to win (because I think Bubba is well outside OWGR top 15)?

Honestly, though, I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Tiger wins. And that's why I respectfully disagree with @onthehunt526 and his references to 1986. I was only a kid in 1986, but I watched the Masters with my Dad (a hugely devoted Jack fan) on the TV and remember the excitement - but, as I recall, it was because it came out of the blue and because we somehow felt or knew that this was the last glimpse of Jack winning a major. True, Jack was 5 years older in 1986 then than Tiger is now, but then it had only been 5 or 6 years since Jack's last major, compared to a decade, as is the case with Tiger in 2018.

But the difference, really, is this. Jack in 1986 was glorious because it seemed like the swansong of a fading superstar.* What would be so exciting about Tiger winning in 2018 is the fact that, based on how he's played so far this year, it might suggest a return to "business as usual." And if he wins the Masters this year, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win the British, too.

        * I vividly remember watching that final round; but it's 30 odd years ago. And I was only 10. This is just my recollection and impression, all these years hence.

Edited March 20, 2018 by ScouseJohnny

[onthehunt526]

1 hour ago, ScouseJohnny said:

Likewise Bubba at 20/1. The only major Bubba has won. The only major I think Bubba will ever win, but hence there is something about Bubba and the Masters...

In the poll I voted for Tiger top 5; "someone not listed" to win (because I think Bubba is well outside OWGR top 15)?

Honestly, though, I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Tiger wins. And that's why I respectfully disagree with @onthehunt526 and his references to 1986. I was only a kid in 1986, but I watched the Masters with my Dad (a hugely devoted Jack fan) on the TV and remember the excitement - but, as I recall, it was because it came out of the blue and because we somehow felt or knew that this was the last glimpse of Jack winning a major. True, Jack was 5 years older in 1986 then than Tiger is now, but then it had only been 5 or 6 years since Jack's last major, compared to a decade, as is the case with Tiger in 2018.

But the difference, really, is this. Jack in 1986 was glorious because it seemed like the swansong of a fading superstar.* What would be so exciting about Tiger winning in 2018 is the fact that, based on how he's played so far this year, it might suggest a return to "business as usual." And if he wins the Masters this year, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win the British, too.

        * I vividly remember watching that final round; but it's 30 odd years ago. And I was only 10. This is just my recollection and impression, all these years hence.

@ScouseJohnny if you look at who's in good form coming into the 2018 Masters, Rory, Tiger, Phil, J-Rose. 

Can't think of anyone at the end of their career who's a candidate to sneak in and win. Fred Couples? I don't know. 

I was saying it kind of feels like '86 because of the buzz surrounding it.

[woodzie264]

16 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

So Tiger needs to get that pull-hook out of his repertoire before April 5th. 

 

4 hours ago, iacas said:

He can lose shots with that one, too.

Yeah, that's his go-to shot off the tee... it gives me hope that one day, I too, will have a slew TOUR wins and a bunch of green jackets

[ChrisP]

Actually just found Brian Harman at 80/1 and put $7 on him. Not sure there's a better bargain out there. Harman has contended in a lot of tourneys the last several months and he's a "Georgia lefty" going to Augusta. Lefties have 6 green jackets since 2003.

A part of me wants to take Rickie Fowler. I've been putting money on him every major since 2015 thinking this is going to be his breakout major. I'm afraid not to bet him because I know the one I don't bet him is the one he's going to win. So I'll prolly put $10 on him. 

I'm in a survivor pool every year where you have to pick 5 different guys for each major + Players, and don't think I've ever gone into a major more confused on who to pick. So many good players playing well. Thinking Tiger/Rose/Thomas and then maybe throw in a sleeper or two like Harman, Casey, Reed or Leishman. Might take a flier on DJ, too, as I do feel like he's going under the radar.

Edited March 20, 2018 by ChrisP

[Shorty]

On 16/03/2018 at 2:13 AM, MuniGrit said:

It is taboo to discuss anything negative about Tiger around here. The local circus gets their panties in a bunch over it for some reason. As you said it would be a huge story. You have to feel pretty good if you bet on him when he was 100-1 recently.

In a decade or so on this site I've never ever seen anything that would come close to representing your assertion.

[onthehunt526]

15 hours ago, iacas said:

He can lose shots with that one, too.

Yup. That and the 2-iron. 

The way the fairways and greens can get at Augusta National, is anyone think Tiger might put his 5-wood back in for the Masters?

[Zeph]

He can lose shots with any club in the bag, as demonstrated last week. He missed 40 yards with wedges and he hit driver out of bounds. Especially on narrow fairways, anything can happen. On Friday he hit a lot of pull-hooks with irons off the tee, after people reported he had a great range session. He hit a lot of great tee shots at Valspar and Bay Hill, but when you're hitting it hard and 300+ yards, the mishits will send you farther into the trees than someone hitting it 280 would.

 

He just has to work on getting rid of those shots across the entire bag. As he says, it's a work in progress. He's moving forward, but not where he wants to be at this point. At Bay Hill he was T8 on birdies, T14 on bogeys (8) and T20 on double bogeys (1).

 

Now he's gotten two good weeks of play in and can focus on practice and getting ready for Augusta, then we'll see what he can bring.

Edited March 21, 2018 by Zeph

[nevets88]

Brooks Koepka out.

http://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/22847090/reigning-us-open-champion-brooks-koepka-says-not-play-masters-due-wrist-injury