JB Holmes Lays up on 72nd Hole at Torrey Pines

[Gunther]

Players are wrong all the time. I posted that because it was said on the TV. That is not true. Same reason why amateurs think they hit their 100 yard shots to ten feet. Pros aren't known for being the smartest guys on Tour.

I don't doubt any of this but there aren't any stats that represent the exact scenario Holmes faced. The nebulous "go for it in 2" figure doesn't accurately represent the precise conditions Holmes faced. If anyone in any tournament were 300 to a false front, over water, they would not go for it because it wouldn't be possible; therefore, those conditions are not part of the "go for it in 2" stat, rather, that situation is represented in the "lay up" stat. And, given the poor drive that created the need to lay up, the odds for a par over a birdie there would be higher. Holmes felt he was facing too difficult a shot given the lie, wind, water, rough behind the green, pin placement, etc. I wish he would have tried to win instead of tie, I'm certain Phil, Rory, Tiger, DJ, Bubba and maybe a few others would have but JB was afraid of bogey and given his mindset, it was the right call for him. I believe most touring pros would have made the same call.

[mvmac]

It's easy to say in hindsight that he screwed up, but I thought at the time that he made the right choice. A lot of bad things could have happened because of a downhill lie on a 235 yard shot.

Based on the numbers/probability, even if he had made birdie laying up it would have been the wrong decision.

[billchao]

P.S. If he knows he goes long and left, aim a bit short and right.

Yea this one confuses me. He said he was in between clubs and he tends to hit it long and left from that lie? Why didn't just play the shorter club, then? Seems like he just came up with excuses to justify the decision.

[No Mulligans]

With the hardness of the greens, the large first bounce, and the balls often not grabbing... How big was his target from a downhill lie at 235 yards?  Certainly that wasn't a run of the mill 235 yard shot for him.

Jason Day's shot showed how severe the trouble was beyond the hole and the subsequent almost impossible shot he had back downhill to the pin and the drink.

I don't think this decision was that easy, 50/50.

[oregongolfguy]

I may be wrong on this so I apologize in advance as I don't know a lot about the hole.  But looking at a couple of pictures of it on line was there a option of "laying up" up to the right of the water setting up a pitch or chip from there for a 3rd shot is he wasn't totally committed to attacking the flag in two?

[saevel25]

It's easy to say in hindsight that he screwed up, but I thought at the time that he made the right choice. A lot of bad things could have happened because of a downhill lie on a 235 yard shot.

Holmes 2014 averages,

Proximity from Sand: 8'2"

Proximity from Rough: 7'6"

Proximity from 50-75 yards out: 17'7"

Proximity from about 30 yards out: 10'7"

If he went for it I would say he had a small chance of hitting it in the water. The most likely scenario would be on the green. It has the largest foot print in a 30 yards area. That is a pretty big green. Besides that you have a bunker then rough.

Heck even if he hit his lay up to just short of the water, he would be left with about 45-50 yards in. That would be about 12-15 feet average from the pin. He would probably have a much better chance of getting closer to the pin than laying up to a full wedge shot.

Just saying, out of all the options he still could have chosen a better lay up stop by getting as close to the water as possible.

[MrFlipper]

Holmes 2014 averages,

Proximity from Sand: 8'2"

Proximity from Rough: 7'6"

Proximity from 50-75 yards out: 17'7"

Proximity from about 30 yards out: 10'7"

If he went for it I would say he had a small chance of hitting it in the water. The most likely scenario would be on the green. It has the largest foot print in a 30 yards area. That is a pretty big green. Besides that you have a bunker then rough.

Heck even if he hit his lay up to just short of the water, he would be left with about 45-50 yards in. That would be about 12-15 feet average from the pin. He would probably have a much better chance of getting closer to the pin than laying up to a full wedge shot.

Just saying, out of all the options he still could have chosen a better lay up stop by getting as close to the water as possible.

First of all, I gotta say that I have my copy of LSW and I am a believer.

But having said that, TV does not do justice to this green (like many others I'm sure). They hit it in the water more than you think because they are scared of going long, the pitch out of long grass, straight down hill into that deep little bowl where the pin was is really tough. The green may be large but it is broken up into little levels that don't really show on TV. A 45 yard pitch from short of the lake to barely over the lake would be impossible to keep in the bowl with the pin, they can't spin it enough, and if you go long its straight downhill coming back and hard to keep within say 5 feet putting down the hill. Hitting back out of that bunker towards the pin, downhill with water just behind, wouldn't be any fun either.

So I figure his choices were miss it long over the back of the green and try to get up and down coming back, or try to spin a full wedge in there. I'd say he'd have much better odds missing over the green and pitching back than any kind of laying up, but he didn't do that.

But its not as clear cut LSW options thinking as it might seem.

[iacas]

If anyone in any tournament were 300 to a false front, over water, they would not go for it because it wouldn't be possible; therefore, those conditions are not part of the "go for it in 2" stat, rather, that situation is represented in the "lay up" stat.

That does not count as a "go-for-it" possibility.

For example: http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.419.2014.html says how they calculate it at the bottom. It doesn't include 300 yards to false fronts over water.

In 2014, JB Holmes went for it 169 times. He was -97 relative to par those times. He elected not to go for it 118 times. He was… +6 those times.

Now, again, this situation was fickle. But, he was also facing a four-man playoff. Fortune favors the bold. I think he should have gone for it. Or at least just laid up short and right (but nearly pin-high).

[Gunther]

That does not count as a "go-for-it" possibility. For example: [URL=http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.419.2014.html]http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.419.2014.html[/URL] says how they calculate it at the bottom. It doesn't include 300 yards to false fronts over water. In 2014, JB Holmes went for it 169 times. He was -97 relative to par those times. He elected not to go for it 118 times. He was… +6 those times. Now, again, this situation was fickle. But, he was also facing a four-man playoff. Fortune favors the bold. I think he should have gone for it. Or at least just laid up short and right (but nearly pin-high).

Ok, I didn't realize they calculated that way. So, because Glover went, JB's counted as a "no-go", but if Glover had laid up, JB's 2nd shot would have fallen out, I.e., not counted towards either stat, I think I got that right. Interesting, thanks. Although, even given that, I'm pretty certain Glover doesn't try it even from his lie if he is tied for the lead. JB was playing for par there, although he says he thought it was his best chance at birdie. Again, I didn't like the play because I, like most, enjoy the gunslinging, no holds barred risk takers, but in terms of right or wrong decision, I believe it was the proper one for a guy like him. He probably would have made par either way but bogey was a greater threat in 2 than in 3, given all the factors.

[k-troop]

He was more afraid to lose than he was willing to go for the win.  I thought it was the wrong decision at the time.  This has probably been said before, but he had just watched Lucas Glover's ball take a swim about 20 seconds before he set up for his shot.  I'm not sure if that affected his decision, but it would have been hard to ignore.

[iacas]

… JB was playing for par there, although he says he thought it was his best chance at birdie.…

He was more afraid to lose than he was willing to go for the win.  I thought it was the wrong decision at the time.  This has probably been said before, but he had just watched Lucas Glover's ball take a swim about 20 seconds before he set up for his shot.  I'm not sure if that affected his decision, but it would have been hard to ignore.

I think that he was playing for par, even though going for it basically would have guaranteed par (if he had a bad lie he could have dumped it out anywhere on the green), with an option for birdie (especially if he hits the green or the fringe, or gets a good lie, or plays a good short-game shot). Even playing for par he had - at best - a 25% chance of winning because of the four-man playoff.

If it's a two-man playoff, that takes you to 52% or so (a small chance of making birdie, plus 50% chance in the playoff).

[Shindig]

That does not count as a "go-for-it" possibility. For example: [URL=http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.419.2014.html]http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.419.2014.html[/URL] says how they calculate it at the bottom. It doesn't include 300 yards to false fronts over water. In 2014, JB Holmes went for it 169 times. He was -97 relative to par those times. He elected not to go for it 118 times. He was… +6 those times.

Reading those statistics, I already knew that going for it was a lower expected score. What surprised me is how many pros -- top pros, including Rory McIlroy - are [i]over par[/i] (overall) when they don't go for it. I know I used to think that they were always throwing darts with their wedges, that they'd almost always make the putt after a preferred wedge shot... So it isn't just that J.B. Holmes should have gone for it from there. It's that just about everyone should... even if they just need par.

[colin007]

[DeadMan]

I think the only way you could defend Holmes' decision is by saying he had a greater chance of making bogey or worse going for it than he did by laying up. But I'm not even sure that would be true. Unless the lie was a lot worse than it looks on TV, I think that's a definite green light situation for a pro. 235 yard shot with a downhill lie? I don't think that's asking for a ton from a PGA tour pro. And really, all he had to do with that second shot was miss the water and he's in better shape than he is laying up and hitting a full wedge.

[GolfLug]

He was more afraid to lose than he was willing to go for the win.  I thought it was the wrong decision at the time.  This has probably been said before, but he had just watched Lucas Glover's ball take a swim about 20 seconds before he set up for his shot.  I'm not sure if that affected his decision, but it would have been hard to ignore.

+1. Exactly what I thought.

[Barking Weasel]

I think a distinction needs to be made between making the right decision based strictly on the numbers and making a decision based on the other factors involved. Not least of which would be your confidence in making the shot. We can say the numbers say go for it but if he is not confident in the shot whether it be due to the lie, hazards etc than the percentages shift. One thing we can't quantify is how your mentality affects the percentages. It definitely plays a role. Without water in play than it's a no brainer because a bad shot wouldn't cost you penalty stroke.

how many of the times that he went for it was he confident he could make the shot?

how many times did he go for it when he wasn't confident? and what was his score in both scenarios?

Too many unknowns to say for sure he was right or wrong, unless we include the disclaimer "by the numbers"

Edit: upon re-reading his quote it doesn't sound like the water was his concern, so he should have gone for it.

[Golfingdad]

Ok, I didn't realize they calculated that way. So, because Glover went, JB's counted as a "no-go", but if Glover had laid up, JB's 2nd shot would have fallen out, I.e., not counted towards either stat, I think I got that right.

I'm not sure about that.  It doesn't say "at least one player in his group," it just says "at least one player."  That could very well include the entire field.  They're basically saying they don't want to skew the results by including shots from a 650 yard par 5.

Reading those statistics, I already knew that going for it was a lower expected score. What surprised me is how many pros -- top pros, including Rory McIlroy - are over par (overall) when they don't go for it. I know I used to think that they were always throwing darts with their wedges, that they'd almost always make the putt after a preferred wedge shot...

Well, this number might still be skewed, though.  What percentage of Rory's "no-go's" are from situations like JB Holmes, and what percentage of the longer hitters like Rory's "no-go's" are from when he sprayed his tee shot into the trees and had to pitch out, or was in a bunker and had to lay back, etc, etc??  Probably a lot more of the latter and a lot less of the former.

[No Mulligans]

For those of you that think it's an easy par going for it as long as you don't go in the water.... Did you see Jason Day's chip that landed on the green (probably where he wanted it) rolled towards the cup, pick up speed on the downhill, and was really really lucky to not go in the water?  Not sure how that was suppose to be an easy or sure par.

You can see the shot on the video at this link:

http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/12298411/jason-day-wins-farmers-insurance-open-four-man-playoff

The stats mentioned don't apply to this specific situation.  Each situation is unique, this one had a difficult pin placement, really fast and hard green, and really really difficult rough behind the green.