$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

[djfajt71]

I would take the bet. I would like to think that I can luck 1 shot out of 7500 into the hole.  If not, I think I can play the political game well enough to not get shanked or raped.

[chspeed]

16 hours ago, iacas said:

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I don't understand many of the "no" votes. If you're a reasonably good golfer, the odds are pretty well in your favor.

Because it's not a $5M bet. If the prize was equal to the penalty, I'd take it.

But for many people, including me, 5 years of freedom is worth a hell of a lot more that $5M.

Edited February 28, 2019 by chspeed

[NJpatbee]

Absolutely not.  I am not a good golfer, but even if I was a good golfer I would not take it.  I have been playing for 27 years and have never got a hole in one nor have I seen anyone do it in person.  I would like the 5 million but I am comfortable with my lifestyle, plus when I got out of jail I would be 72.  

[Bo the Golfer]

Tempting but I voted no. I have a 4 month old and would hate to miss her first five years.

[bobcat88]

I'd take the bet. Worst case I go to jail and have time to do some reading and exercising. Assuming I'm in a country club-type jail and not Leavenworth.

[Petrocelli]

I voted no.  I already have more than enough money.  And prison life is far more structured than I personally care for.

[klineka]

24 minutes ago, Petrocelli said:

I already have more than enough money.  

I'll gladly take some off your hands if you want to get rid of some 

[Piz]

Definitely not.  If I hit 250 shots on a Monday it would be at least Thursday before I was able to walk again.  That and the ever increasing dread as the days passed.  I might be able to manage 100 swings a day.  One in three thousand?  Thank you but no.

[Pretzel]

We know the odds are somewhere between 1 in 12,500 and 1 in 2,500, depending on player skill. Let's assume that I am on the better end and my odds are 1 in 4,000, and the total number of shots is still 7,500.

The overall probability of success is pretty simple, using the formula below:

P_Success = 1 - (P_Failure)^n

Where n is the number of failed attempts, and P_Failure is the odds of failure for any 1 attempt (3999/4000). This gives us the overall probability of success as being:

P_Success = 1 - 0.1533 = 0.8467

In other words, I might have an approximately 84.67% chance of success if I were to take this bet with my odds of any one shot being a hole in one being 1 in 4,000. I imagine the odds might go up after hitting so many 8-irons every day, so 1 in 4,000 seems like a somewhat conservative number.

I'd take this bet though. I have an approximately 85% chance of winning 5 million dollars, and if I fail I'm still young enough that 5 years in prison wouldn't be life-ruining (assuming it didn't come along with some kind of felony on my rap sheet). 

[Piz]

Was that an example of @Pretzel logic?  I've heard about it, of course, but never actually encountered any.  Impressive.

[David in FL]

29 minutes ago, Pretzel said:

We know the odds are somewhere between 1 in 12,500 and 1 in 2,500, depending on player skill. Let's assume that I am on the better end and my odds are 1 in 4,000, and the total number of shots is still 7,500.

The overall probability of success is pretty simple, using the formula below:

P_Success = 1 - (P_Failure)^n

Where n is the number of failed attempts, and P_Failure is the odds of failure for any 1 attempt (3999/4000). This gives us the overall probability of success as being:

P_Success = 1 - 0.1533 = 0.8467

In other words, I might have an approximately 84.67% chance of success if I were to take this bet with my odds of any one shot being a hole in one being 1 in 4,000. I imagine the odds might go up after hitting so many 8-irons every day, so 1 in 4,000 seems like a somewhat conservative number.

I'd take this bet though. I have an approximately 85% chance of winning 5 million dollars, and if I fail I'm still young enough that 5 years in prison wouldn't be life-ruining (assuming it didn't come along with some kind of felony on my rap sheet). 

Given that a tour pro’s odds are 1 in 2,500, 1 in 4,000 represents an extraordinary level of confidence in your own game.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong, just that I’d guess that it would equate to some level of plus hcp...

I could see a younger, single, relatively skilled player willing to roll the dice on this one though...

[Carl3]

21 hours ago, iacas said:

I don't understand many of the "no" votes. If you're a reasonably good golfer, the odds are pretty well in your favor.

I was very tempted to vote "yes", but then reflected on my physical limits. A jumbo bucket is 120 to 130 balls and I know how I feel after hitting one of those. My hands would be blistered at day 5 and I would feel as if I needed hip replacements and shoulder resurfacing.

[Yukari]

2 hours ago, Pretzel said:

We know the odds are somewhere between 1 in 12,500 and 1 in 2,500, depending on player skill. Let's assume that I am on the better end and my odds are 1 in 4,000, and the total number of shots is still 7,500.

The overall probability of success is pretty simple, using the formula below:

P_Success = 1 - (P_Failure)^n

Where n is the number of failed attempts, and P_Failure is the odds of failure for any 1 attempt (3999/4000). This gives us the overall probability of success as being:

P_Success = 1 - 0.1533 = 0.8467

In other words, I might have an approximately 84.67% chance of success if I were to take this bet with my odds of any one shot being a hole in one being 1 in 4,000. I imagine the odds might go up after hitting so many 8-irons every day, so 1 in 4,000 seems like a somewhat conservative number.

I'd take this bet though. I have an approximately 85% chance of winning 5 million dollars, and if I fail I'm still young enough that 5 years in prison wouldn't be life-ruining (assuming it didn't come along with some kind of felony on my rap sheet). 

You are assuming each shot is dependent on the other.  One shot has no bearing on the next shot.  Therefore, each shot has 1 in 12,500 or 1 in 2,500 odds of going in.

It's like a flipping a coin.  After 1000 straight times it comes up heads, the next toss is still only 50-50 it would come up tails.

[Pretzel]

2 hours ago, David in FL said:

Given that a tour pro’s odds are 1 in 2,500, 1 in 4,000 represents an extraordinary level of confidence in your own game.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong, just that I’d guess that it would equate to some level of plus hcp...

I could see a younger, single, relatively skilled player willing to roll the dice on this one though...

I put 1 in 4,000 because the last official handicap I had was +1.2, so I figured  the assumption of being about half as good at hitting a hole in one as a pro seemed reasonable. No handicap on my profile currently because I didn't keep one last year.

49 minutes ago, Yukari said:

You are assuming each shot is dependent on the other.  One shot has no bearing on the next shot.  Therefore, each shot has 1 in 12,500 or 1 in 2,500 odds of going in.

It's like a flipping a coin.  After 1000 straight times it comes up heads, the next toss is still only 50-50 it would come up tails.

That's not how cumulative probability works. Each event is independent, but the cumulative probability of multiple events is a factor of the probability of each event happening. Flipping 5 heads in a row, for example, is less likely than flipping 2 heads and 3 tails.

There is only one scenario where I lose the bet: when I miss every single shot. If I subtract the probability of this even from 1, I get the probability of this event NOT happening (in other words, I win).

To find the probability of two independent events happening in a row, you multiply their probabilities together as I did there (7,500 times, because it needs to happen 7,500 times in a row for me to lose). The odds of a coin being heads twice in a row is .5 x .5, or .25. Thus, the odds of me losing the bet is 1-(3999/4000)^7500.

To go back to the 5 heads example, the probability of anything BUT 5 heads happening is 1 - the probability of 5 heads. This is 1 - (.5)(.5)(.5)(.5)(.5), or 1 - (.5)^5, or 1 - 1/32. The probability of flipping a coin 5 times and NOT getting 5 heads is 31/32. This is similar to the proposed bet, because there is only one scenario where you lose (7,500 missed shots in a row), and every other possible scenario (all the way from 1 hole in one to 7,500 holes in one) is a win.

[HJJ003]

I wouldn’t take the bet. I’m simply not good enough to even hope to be lucky once in a situation like this one lol. 

[Nave]

I would not take the bet. The risk reward ratio is not tempting enough for me personally.

The years in a lifetime are simply worth more than the bet offers. 

Even if I were a pro golfer, I'd find better percentage risks for making that $5MM.

[No Mulligans]

That is an easy no for me. I'm 61 and retired, life is really good.

Give me 5 million, life would be a bit better than it is now. Nicer golf courses, better ski trips, maybe a house closer to the beach (only 3 miles to the beach now, only 6 miles to Torrey Pines Golf Course which I can play pretty much any time I want) etc. 

5 years in prison would be an extreme reduction in my quality of life. 

Even if I had a 95% chance of success, i still wouldn't take the bet. 

99% chance of success?  Hmm, I'd have to think about it. 

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by No Mulligans

[tristanhilton85]

I'd be tempted to take the bet, that's a lot of chances.